IDC Predicts Windows Phone Will Be Number Two Smartphone OS by 2015

[Danny Simmons]

<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://www.slashgear.com/windows-phone-number-two-smartphone-os-by-2015-predicts-idc-29143143/' target='_blank'>http://www.slashgear.com/windows-ph...s-idc-29143143/</a><br /><br /></div><p><em>"Android will take the top spot for smartphone OS worldwide in 2011, analysts IDC have predicted, pushing iOS into third place behind Symbian. As for Microsoft, while the Symbian-faithful aren't entirely convinced by Nokia's decision to climb aboard the Windows Phone train, IDC is more confident in the two companies' partnership. "By 2015, IDC expects Windows Phone to be number 2 operating system worldwide behind Android," senior research analyst Ramon Llamas predicts."</em></p><p><img src="http://images.thoughtsmedia.com/resizer/thumbs/size/600/wpt/auto/1301447636.usr51221.jpg" /></p><p>This is a pretty bold prediction.&nbsp; It has been the topic of much debate since this article was released.&nbsp; With Symbian phasing out of the picture as Nokia embraces Windows Phone as their OS of choice, there's bound to be a new number two.&nbsp; Will&nbsp;all Symbian users shift over to Windows Phone to stay with Nokia?&nbsp; Will some of them move to Android or iOS?&nbsp; I personally think we'll see a good mix of users jumping from one platform to another over the next few years until they find the one that suits them best.&nbsp; Each OS provides unique experiences that may appeal to some, but not to others.&nbsp; It will definitely be an interesting few years, especially once Nokia starts flooding the market with Windows Phone.&nbsp; What do you think will happen?</p>

[Nelson Ocampo]

There are quite a lot of people very loyal to Nokia.

The above chart looks like it assumes that Microsoft is able to keep or convert about 3/4 of the volume of Nokia's current customer base. This could be through Nokia retaining most of its customer volume or Microsoft picking up new customers.

I assume that by 2015, Windows Phone 9 will be the current OS iteration. I also expect that we will continue to see WP8 and even WP7 being sold to select markets. Yes, that wasn't a typo.

By then, WP7 handsets will be dirt cheap to make. And I don't think Nokia has any plans to abandon their low end market, so they will probably have those low end cheap 1Ghz phones loaded with WP7.

This could lead some to worry about fragmentation, but I don't see fragmentation as much of an issue. Anything created for WP7 will run on higher versions of the OS. And all handsets of a particular version will have a set of its own minimum specs that developers could target. A developer won't have to worry about picking a target market, and then still having to develop for multiple specs for that market.

So I see this prediction as realistic. I already thought that WP7 would end up gaining market share in a huge way. Especially with the Nokia deal. I'm glad to see that there's an organization that agrees with me.

[virain]

WP is not limited to one manufacturer device, it is capable and more open than let's say iOS, has great developer tools, and has following due to history form WM, it does attracts developers. So WP is pretty much at par with Android, considering Microsoft will be capable to keep up with regular an sooooo needed updates. Android has a head start of one or two years, so I do believe these numbers are not far off. But don't underestimate Microsoft's ability to screw things up!

[The Yaz]

I would have to agree with other commentors. Microsoft/Nokia and their other vendors do have a great opportunity down the road. I wouldn't have thought much of it till my wife replaced her Palm Treo running 6.1 for an Android 2.2 phone.

While she agrees the phone is great in some aspects, she told me last week that its "just not focused on business related stuff". When I asked what she meant, she commented that the reliability of the synching between work and personal schedules and contacts have gone loopy for her from time to time. Something that never happened on the Microsoft platform.

Adding to that her IT person even told her that they are now suggesting people in the office to consider WM7 phones after they bought two testers and they worked well with exchange and remote desktop applications.

Oh, and her company frowns on IOS devices since they do not use flash, and many of her copmpny's promotional materials are flash based...

[Richard Chao]

WP7 doesn't support flash. So if they hate iOS for that reason...

[Nelson Ocampo]

WP7 doesn't support Flash. True.

But we're looking at growth to 2015.

Unlike Apple, Microsoft doesn't have some animosity towards Flash. I'm sure that Flash is on the table for inclusion in the future. There are just too many other things to worry about in the short term.

[Fritzly]

There are are so many variables that these kind of forecasts shold alway been taken with a grain of salt; by 2015 W8 will be out, HP could see a big push of its own OS etc. etc.