20 Dying Technologies: Agree or Disagree?

[Jason Dunn]

<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://images.businessweek.com/ss/10/10/1021_dying_tech/1.htm' target='_blank'>http://images.businessweek.com/ss/1...ying_tech/1.htm</a><br /><br /></div><p><em>"All too often, the hottest devices and coolest gadgets of the moment are dusty in the marketplace before the ink is dry on the receipt. And the pace of replacement is getting faster every year. Indeed, there are so many game-changers in the world of technology that the death knell is sounding on many a device that we use every day."</em></p><p><img src="http://images.thoughtsmedia.com/resizer/thumbs/size/600/dht/auto/1291661355.usr1.jpg" style="border: 1px solid #d2d2bb;" /></p><p>There are some obvious ones on this list - like the fax machine, though that's been "dying" for many years now - but some of them are real head-scratchers. Take gaming consoles for instance; this article says that ten years from now we'll have Internet-connected TVs and, apparently, all our gaming will be done online. Really? Maybe for a quick game of SuDoKu with a friend, but I can't see TVs having the same level of hardware, software, performance, and polish that a gaming console has. I firmly believe in products that are really good at their primary task, not products that are sort of good at a lot of things. And gaming is also about platforms; who really believes that the TV industry will be able to get together and cooperate on creating a unified hardware specification for game developers to target? Not going to happen.</p><p>Oh, and point and shoot digital cameras are also on list this of dying technologies - that one's a bit easier to swallow, because cameras on smartphones are getting better, but I think it's going to take quite a few years and advances in folded optics, image sensor quality, performance, and battery life before people won't prefer a dedicated digital camera.</p><p>What's your take on the items on this list?</p>

[viktor.skarlatov]

The death of PC/Console gaming may have already begun. There already is a cloud gaming service named OnLive which is running pretty well from the reviews I read.
Maybe photorealistic ray-traced games are closer than we thought?

[Fritzly]

Credit cards: no
Desktops: no
DVD: no/maybe but replaced but other media that users can store at home.
Music player: yes (they will converge with smartphones with replaceable SD cards)
E-readers: yes
Fax machine: yes ( I remember the time telex was a must in the office)
Game consoles: Maybe (never used, I only play computer games)
Pagers: Are they still alive?
Dash mounted GPS: Yes
Keys: No
Landlines: No ( I still have a simple phone in case of hurricanes)
3D TV: Yes ( Has it ever been a reality?)
Metronomes: Maybe
PDA: Yes (Basically they are dead already)
Digital cameras: No
Power cords: No
Remote controls: No (Smart screens will be used to control the houses)
USB: No (The cloud will die sooner...........)

[Don Tolson]

Credit cards: no
Desktops: no
DVD: no/maybe but replaced but other media that users can store at home.
Music player: yes (they will converge with smartphones with replaceable SD cards)
E-readers: yes
Fax machine: yes ( I remember the time telex was a must in the office)
Game consoles: Maybe (never used, I only play computer games)
Pagers: Are they still alive?
Dash mounted GPS: Yes
Keys: No
Landlines: No ( I still have a simple phone in case of hurricanes)
3D TV: Yes ( Has it ever been a reality?)
Metronomes: Maybe
PDA: Yes (Basically they are dead already)
Digital cameras: No
Power cords: No
Remote controls: No (Smart screens will be used to control the houses)
USB: No (The cloud will die sooner...........)

OK, here's my cut (pretty close to Fritzy's, but ...)

Desktops: Yes -- evetually, it'll be all laptops. I'm even seeing that at work.
DVD: Yes, probably by some 'solid state' memory -- but the actual disks will remain around for a LOOOONNNGGGG time, as they are just to easy/convenient and no one wants to convert their collection.
Music player: yes
E-readers: yes, probably integrated into phones, etc.
Fax machine: yes ( I also remember when telex was king -- but then, I also used to program on punch cards...) It's funny tho, the entire medical profession around here DEPENDS on their fax machines. It would come to a grinding halt without them.
Game consoles: No, I'm with Jason on this one. There will always be better and better dedicated game consoles.
Pagers: Definitely on the way out.
Dash mounted GPS: Yes, in favour of built-in to the car.
Keys: No
Landlines: Yes, I believe the phone companies WANT this to happen, so they can stop maintaining copper lines, poles, etc. and charge for both incoming and outgoing transmissions. I figure we have one or two generations before they don't even know what a landline is.
3D TV: Yes -- totally agree. this is just a gimic to try to sell more tvs. And get people back into the movie theatre. It isn't working for me.
Metronomes: Yes, these will become museum pieces.
PDA: Maybe -- it depends on your definition. A dedicated PDA-function only device? Yea, that has already died off, but the current generation of smartphones are just an extended Personal Digital Assistant, aren't they?
Digital cameras: No
Power cords: No
Remote controls: No (Smart screens will be used to control the houses)
USB: No (The cloud will die sooner...........)

[jeffd]

meh... I have abit of a different opinion on these...

Desktops: No. Laptops may be getting awesome, but a powerful desktop is still much cheaper and easily more upgradable.

DVD: This is a 2 way question... dvd only is abit dead allready with dvd players not exactly being profit whores anymore. But new disc mediums are all using the same form factor so its easy to support a dvd side or a dvd readable layer.. or simply include a 2 cent pressed dvd into a package for an easy fall back. Also all new players can pretty much easily fall back to the dvd format.

Music player: yes, The phone and the mp3 player will eventually merge. The only thing that keeps them from doing so now is most phones don't have 160Gb of space, and have expensive calling plans.

E-readers: Never really even became a reality. A very niche market and can easily be gobbled up by the tablet market once the kinks in that realm are worked out.

Fax machine: yes...unless you ask the government. They still require applications, documents, to be faxed and will not except email.

Game consoles: No. Consoles biggest strong point is it dosnt require itself to be online. No need for connections and monthly fees. Play where you want..when you want.

Pagers: People still have them?

Dash mounted GPS: Yes, although I dont think they will be built into many cars. Cheap cars will be cheap cars. Instead your cell phone will be your GPS.

Keys: No, there will always be a need for a mechanical lock.

Landlines: maybe, telecoms may want to abandon it, and it may be replaced entirely by fiver one day. but I think someone will find a use for an existing cable system that goes to every house for some good use.

Metronomes: meh, mechanical ones will be used for aesthetics, but electric ones are still called metronomes.

PDA: No, it mearly has its name changed to what we now know as cell phones.

USB: I don't think so...Until bluetooth consumes no power, there will always be a need for a wired connection for portable electronics. Especially when that wired connection has been merged with the charging solution.

[viktor.skarlatov]

Credit cards: no
Desktops: no
DVD: no/maybe but replaced but other media that users can store at home.
Music player: yes (they will converge with smartphones with replaceable SD cards)
E-readers: yes
Fax machine: yes ( I remember the time telex was a must in the office)
Game consoles: Maybe (never used, I only play computer games)
Pagers: Are they still alive?
Dash mounted GPS: Yes
Keys: No
Landlines: No ( I still have a simple phone in case of hurricanes)
3D TV: Yes ( Has it ever been a reality?)
Metronomes: Maybe
PDA: Yes (Basically they are dead already)
Digital cameras: No
Power cords: No
Remote controls: No (Smart screens will be used to control the houses)
USB: No (The cloud will die sooner...........)

The USB is somewhat likely to die, though slowly, if the Intel/Apple LightPeak technology succeeds.
I also believe that consoles and PCs can disappear (for gaming) as well because of cloud gaming. Check out OnLive for example, I heard pretty good things about the service.

[ptyork]

Oooh! Fun!

Desktops: Maybe. I see the mid-tower dropping into a niche, but I don't see the large-monitor/keyboard/mouse work station disappearing. Definitely there'll be docking solutions, but I think there'll still be computers sitting there, even if they're only net-top sized.
DVD: Replaced by digital downloads or streaming in the same way as MP3's replaced CD's. Probably at a slightly faster pace. Just look at the shrinking size of the Best Buy DVD and CD sections to confirm this reality. Rental will definitely go streaming, and ASAP. BUT, physical media will stick around for archival and enthusiasts for a while yet. And for octogenarians.
Music player: Maybe. But what about 5-10 year-olds? Are we really going to be giving them phones? And how about the welfare crowd? I think they'll drop down to commodity pricing (no fancy iTouches), but they'll still be around.
E-readers: Definitely in their current form, but I can still see a day where you pick up "disposable" e-paper coded for a specific use. Once the tech gets cheap enough.
Fax machine: Longest...death...ever...
Game consoles: I don't know. Maybe. I certainly could see a day when everyone has something like OnLive built in. But I don't see it happening for a long time. Latency, bandwidth, lack of standards, interoperability, reliability, etc.
Pagers: Died more quickly than the fax machine, but still...
Dash mounted GPS: Yes, of course. In favor of either smartphone solutions or in-car solutions. Especially since in 2014 ALL US cars will have to be equipped with back-up cameras, so we're already gonna have the screen. Now, the question is, how smart will they be with this. Personally, I'd like to see it where I walk in the car, and like bluetooth headsets, the car recognizes my phone and allow me to operate it's features using the screen. Including nav and of course audio and video playback. That would be cool. Get GM out of the touchscreen interface business. They suck wind.
Keys: No. But certainly they will become less and less used over time as technology costs allows. They are certainly not a loved concept by any but locksmiths. Already I don't have one for my car and most workplaces don't have them. My keychain consists of a fob, a house key, and a pocket knife. I'll dump keys as soon as humanly possible.
Landlines: Dying.
3D TV: Fad-erific.
Metronomes: How obscure! Of course. Dead.
PDA: In the same way as the dedicated MP3 player, yes dying. And there won't be a niche market here. Just plain old dead. Converged devices FTW!
Digital cameras: Once optics catch up, of course. The average Joe doesn't give a rat's rump about photo quality. I'm AMAZED (disgusted?) at the crap that's posted to Facebook. So most folks have already made the switch. There will always be a need for higher quality optics for a moderately sized niche of enthusiasts (like most of us). Mostly those already in the DSLR/EVIL world (yep, most of us). So yeah, I could see the <$300 P&S going bye-bye in favor of smartphone convergence.
Power cords: No, not completely. But yeah, I could see a day where mobile devices didn't require plugs. Hopefully not coupled with a slow cooking of our insides.
Remote controls: Not immediately. BUT, I do see much greater reliance on tablets/smartphones here. Too easy to scan a media library or tv guide using your index finger. And with DLNA/AirPlay, it is easy to see how the phone/tablet could play a much bigger role here. Especially if we don't have to worry about power (see above).
USB: Probably not. At least not immediately. But I do see my students starting to embrace cloud storage more and more. One less thing to lose. So, maybe again GREATLY reduced usage.

[Sven Johannsen]

My turn
Desktops: Symantics. My laptop sits on my desk now, tied to a mouse, keyboard and monitor. It's twice, maybe 4 times as powerful as my 'dektop' of not too long ago. Maybe the question should be local processing?
DVD: Nah, it'll be around for a while yet. Cheap effective solution for which there really isn't a cheap effective replacement for.
Music player: Nope, staying. Not everyone can afford the alternative, and many who can can't afford to let peripheral duties eat up the battery on the phone.
E-readers: The have a niche that is under-understood I think, and still a bit expensive. When my wife's Nook and my Kindle can last weeks on a charge and be read in BRIGHT sunlight, they just have some advantages over LCD tech. When these come to sub $75 I think they will readily supplement everyone's Tablet fever.
Fax machine: Still use mine at home. Surprising the business I deal with that want me to print something out, sign it and fax it so they can scan it back into their digital archive.
Game consoles: Real Gamers won't let these die.
Pagers: Still places that allow these but not phones, so it'll take a while.
Dash mounted GPS: When you can get one for under $100, and easily upgrade the maps (assuming the OEM does that), and take it with you when you change cars or travel? No, these aren't going away. Yea I can use my phone, but it better be powered, and I better be in cell range, or I can buy off-line nav programs, for almost as much as a dedicated GPS. Built into car? Have one..never again, unless it's free.
Keys: Hopefully, but NFC, and such is still too insecure, or perceived as such. Would love to have my house just let me in because I am cloe to the door, just as my car does. Actually have electronic locks on the house, but they still have key backups, because of that power/failure thing. My car fob has a key too, BTW, just in case. Mechanical is still pretty darn reliable.
Landlines: Should die, but alternative needs to be more ubiquitous, and reliable. Are we calling cable/internet phone landline? Still can't get the bandwidth we want over RF systems for our home data use, so if we got cable/fiber to the house for that anyway????
3D TV: We don't 'watch' TV. Most of the time it is on while other things are going on, so the glasses are a hindrance. Cool at the movies. Needs to stay there.
Metronomes: The physical device or the funtion. Lots of things in this category. How about 'ringer' on your phone?
PDA: Yea I find it hard to believe any of these will survive the smartphone era. Only thing that could keep them around is the required data contracts. The price of off-contract smartphones just seems excessive.
Digital cameras: Here to stay, until they figure out how to put a lense mount on a cell phone. The electronics are capable, but the optics leave much to be desired.
Power cords: No, hell no. As has been mentioned, I'm not excited about the prospect of the RF emissions required to charge or run things much bigger than a cell phone.
Remote controls: Semantics again. If I make something over there do something from over here, that is remote control. Do you want to go back to walking up to your TV to change the channel? Yes we used to actually have to do that.
USB: Nah, some sort of data transfer between device has got to exist and this works. Gotta have something that works better, cheaper, more reliably to usurp it. Seems to me ethernet has a pretty good chance. Already many of my devices support IP, and can talk to each other, either wired or wireless. Just needs to be a little simpler for mass consumption, and a bit more inherently secure.

[Jason Dunn]

The death of PC/Console gaming may have already begun. There already is a cloud gaming service named OnLive which is running pretty well from the reviews I read.

Indeed...but I have to wonder about a couple of things:

1) People with low incomes can buy a gaming console and a game, without recurring fees or needing Internet access. Internet access is still too expensive in many parts of the world; recurring fees keep certain people away. Think about the popularity of pay as you go cell phones - monthly charges are quite difficult for some people.

2) The costs of OnLive are still kind of high. For instance, Mafia II, a new came, will run you $50 to play it as much as you want...but you don't actually own the game. Kind of twisted logic in a way...

3) If your Internet access goes down, you can't do any gaming.

OnLive may be the future, but I think it has a long, hard road ahead of it.

[jeffd]

Onlive still has lag... and this dosn't seem very likely to be solvable in our near future thanks to the laws of physics. Also as jason said, my net goes out alot more then my power does.

Also frankly I don't see the service being able to achieve the video quality of an hdmi connection. Game consoles are 720p now and I have no doub the next one will beable to float between 720p and 1080p (So many gaming PCs now are on 23+ inch screens requiring video cards to drive 1080p, and the next console gen should be benchmarking the same as the most powerful video card at the time). This is very hard to stream with little artifacts.

[Joel Crane]

The first one made me laugh. Internal combustion engines? Does the author ever walk out of the house?

I've never, ever, ever seen a pure electric or hydrogen-powered car on the road. They are still improving rapidly, even in the past 5 years internal combustion engines in the sportbike market have improved dramatically. If it wasn't for stingy emissions requirements, little diesel cars would be getting 50-70 mpg, which is much better than my Dad's hybrid does. My Toyota Echo gets 40mpg regularly.

[Lee Yuan Sheng]

Don't diesel cars already do 50 mpg? Euro IV (which is a pretty strict standard) cars can do that, I believe. Most of their mileage is reported in imperial gallons, I think.

[Sven Johannsen]

Don't diesel cars already do 50 mpg? Euro IV (which is a pretty strict standard) cars can do that, I believe. Most of their mileage is reported in imperial gallons, I think.
Sure, but everyone knows diesel is filthy. That's what those big ol' trucks belching black smoke use, isn't it? :rolleyes:

[Lee Yuan Sheng]

Hey, not my fault your country is ignorant. Here many people are getting interested in diesel cars but the stupid tax on them is designed the wipe out the savings for all except the most demanding drivers.

[Sven Johannsen]

Hey, be nice. They also don't accelerate very well, which is important when going the two blocks from my house to Starbucks.:D

[Lee Yuan Sheng]

Light vehicles accelerate faster, so get a motorcycle. :p

On a more serious, and very divergent note, diesels have great torque, so they have very fast initial acceleration. It's fun to get that kick at the start. Kinda peters out towards 60 mph though.

So to go back on topic... ICE, we're going to be with them for quite a while more.

[Jason Dunn]

Hey, not my fault your country is ignorant.

I don't think it's a matter of ignorance; I loathe the diesel fumes that invariably get sucked into my car when I'm driving behind/near a diesel vehicle. It's disgusting and not something I'd like to see become MORE wide-spread. :mad:

[Sven Johannsen]

Light vehicles accelerate faster, so get a motorcycle. :p.
Had one, got run over. Got hit broadside, 6 days in ICU. Wife won't let me get another. Go figure.

[Sven Johannsen]

I don't think it's a matter of ignorance; I loathe the diesel fumes that invariably get sucked into my car when I'm driving behind/near a diesel vehicle. It's disgusting and not something I'd like to see become MORE wide-spread. :mad:
Actually with many of the newer ones, it's pretty darn hard to tell its diesel. They suffer from a lot of legacy impressions. If Lee couldn't tell, I was being facetious. It's still fossile fuel though, but I would guess the majority of electricity in this country is generated from fossile fuel too. May have changed, but I don't think so.

[Lee Yuan Sheng]

I don't think it's a matter of ignorance; I loathe the diesel fumes that invariably get sucked into my car when I'm driving behind/near a diesel vehicle. It's disgusting and not something I'd like to see become MORE wide-spread. :mad:

Euro IV cars have practically no fumes. In Europe a substantial number of cars are on diesel. Here I've seen some Euro IV taxis and small vans and there's no fumes, so yes, they can be pretty good (and brings me back to the point on ignorance).

Sven, I know you're being facetious, so was I. Whoops, sorry for confusing you Jason. :D

Sven, ouch, sorry to hear about your time in the ICU. Hope you're 100% alright now.

[Steve Jordan]

I'm glad to see someone else (besides me) is recognizing a future with no keys. There's no reason a person can't carry a single fob (or something) that will give them access to their house, car, office, suitcase, bike lock, in fact everything that presently need all those individual keys for.

A lot of the things on their list are dedicated items, like ebook readers, MP3 players and digital cameras, and I don't think I'd qualify those items as "dying." Multifunction items are increasingly popular, and are taking market share from a lot of dedicated devices. But the fact remains that if dedicated devices do a better job at a single popular task than multifunction devices, they will remain as niche products at least. That's not dying... that's evolving.

[Sven Johannsen]

Sven, ouch, sorry to hear about your time in the ICU. Hope you're 100% alright now.Probably never be 100% again, but thanks for caring.