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  #1  
Old 11-26-2009, 02:00 PM
Jason Dunn
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Default Windows 7 Market Share After One Month Surpasses Entire Apple OS X Installed Base

<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9141424/Windows_7_passes_Mac_OS_X_in_market_share_race' target='_blank'>http://www.computerworld.com/s/arti...rket_share_race</a><br /><br /></div><p><em>"Windows 7 passed the 5% market share milestone last weekend, which put it, if only temporarily, above the total market share of all versions of Apple's Mac OS X, a Web measurement firm said today. Last Saturday and Sunday, Windows 7 powered an estimated 5% and 5.14% of all computers that were online those days, according to Internet metrics vendor Net Applications. The two-day average of 5.07% was higher than the 5% of the market that Net Applications said Apple's operating system averaged for the week of Nov. 15-21."</em></p><p>This is a welcome reality check. I know that Apple has tremendous mind-share because they spend an ungodly amount of money on prime-time TV advertising telling us how much Windows "sucks", but at the end of the day only 5 out of 100 computers on this planet are Macs running OS X. The market share for Windows that same week was 92.64%. The numbers say a lot - and no amount of reality-distortion field spinning is going to change that. Macs might be the perfect computing solution for some people, but they're not a mass-market product, no matter how hard the Mac faithful want to believe that.</p><p>There's also a weird reality distortion bubble in the media - many people in the media/blogging tech world use Macs. A far higher percentage than the rest of the world; <a href="http://www.windowsphonethoughts.com/news/show/95970/mobius-2009-fascinating-but-little-that-can-be-shared.html" target="_blank">just look at figure 2 in this article</a>. I don't know whether it's techno-savvy people who got sick of Windows, or the uber-geek's desire to try the next shiny and new thing, but at many tech events I'm in the minority using a Windows laptop. At that Mobius event OS X had 53% market share; in the rest of the world, 5%. Funny things can happen when you get a bunch of Mac users in the room: they think their platform always matters, even when it doesn't. Sounds harsh, right? Let me explain. <MORE /></p><p>One of the things I hear brought up over and over again is "Why is there no Zune client for the Mac?". The math tell us the story: take 5% of the computer market as potential buyers for the Zune who are running OS X. What percentage of those people are open-minded enough to try a Microsoft product instead of an iPod? In my experience, people who buy a Mac also buy into the ecosystem, often owning an iPod or an iPhone. So, what then, 10% of that total 5%? So we're looking at 0.5% of the total market, and I think even that's a big stretch.</p><p>Now put yourself in Microsoft's position: you have limited developer resources for the Zune software client. There are lots of features you want to add, but if you need to make an OS X client you'll have to curtail development on the Windows version. Are you willing to do that for a potential 0.5% of the market? Probably not. And keep this in mind: you don't need the OS X users in order for your product to become a success. You need, and want, Windows owners to buy your product. If you get enough of them, you'll be laughing. So why waste any resources on an OS X client?</p><p>The iPod would never have become the success that it is today if Apple hadn't released a Windows version of iTunes. Apple needed, desperately, the Windows platform as a host for iTunes - without it they'd only have OS X users, which represented a small percentage of the market. Microsoft doesn't need Mac owners buying Zunes, so they're not going to waste the resources developing for OS X - no matter how loud tech bloggers whine about it.</p>
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  #2  
Old 11-26-2009, 10:05 PM
jeffd
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I think alot of people would like to try macOS, I know I would. The problem is it does not run on their pc..it does not run on my pc.. it does not run on my old PCs as an alternative OS. As software usability goes.. it is high, but as far as portability, flexability, it is dead last.
 
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Old 11-26-2009, 10:06 PM
ianbjor
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I don't think anyone will be surprised by the numbers for Windows 7 adoption, and everyone is well aware that Windows' market share makes Mac OS X look like nothing. Calling this a "reality check" is a stretch.

However, you must be aware of the idea of mavens -- the influential people who drive market trends (if not, read Malcolm Gladwell's book, The Tipping Point. These are the people that everyone asks, "What (insert compter/gadget here) should I buy?" Individually, they represent a small percentage of the overall market, but they have massive influence. Therefore, attracting these consumers is crucial for a product to be successful. These are probably many of the people you saw at Mobius, and who read this site, too.

For the iPod, Apple correctly recognized that many of these customers were running Windows. Making iTunes for Windows was crucial not only for the success of the iPod, but it has certainly been a factor in the Mac's growth as well -- the "halo effect" is well documented.

Look at the marketing for the Verizon Droid: It is clearly aimed directly at tech-savvy people. The ads point(ed) out issues that normal users couldn't care less about, and may not even be aware of ("iDon't support open development", "iDon't run widgets", etc.).

There are plenty of Mac users that I know that look at the Zune HD and especially the Zune Pass *with interest. It's a great music player, and the subscription service is something that they would love to take advantage of, since Apple won't (or can't) create a subscription plan for the iTunes Music Store.

So, a company can't just look at raw sales to drive a decision on whether to support a certain segment. They need to understand *who* is in that segment, and if the influence they have is worth the cost.
 
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Old 11-27-2009, 03:53 AM
Macguy59
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Quote:
Microsoft doesn't need Mac owners buying Zunes, so they're not going to waste the resources developing for OS X
Really ? Given how little success MS has had selling Zunes (including the HD) you would think they wouldn't exclude any potential source.
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  #5  
Old 11-27-2009, 04:13 AM
Janak Parekh
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Macguy59 View Post
Really ? Given how little success MS has had selling Zunes (including the HD) you would think they wouldn't exclude any potential source.
You can't tell me in all seriousness that the Mac population will adopt Zune in anywhere near-useful numbers.

As Jason mentioned, most Mac users will not use a Microsoft media player. .5% of the potential userbase is tiny! Just because Mac users are over-represented in technology forums, including ZT, doesn't mean it'll play out the same in the mass market.

Also, keep in mind that there's no modern Windows Media libraries for the Mac. It would be a lot of work to port them from Windows -- especially the time-sensitive DRM that forms the subscription model that's at the heart of Zune Pass. And you need to port them before you can build a client.

While I'm not sure I agree with Jason about the general implications of the size of the Mac userbase, I agree completely with him here -- Microsoft would be wasting money making a Mac Zune client, and I'd be shocked if it ever happens.

--janak
 
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Old 11-27-2009, 05:20 AM
Macguy59
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I'm not trying to tell you anything. Zune as a platform is struggling. If you think the cost of including Mac support would outweigh the potential return, that's fine.
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  #7  
Old 11-27-2009, 05:22 AM
Janak Parekh
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Macguy59 View Post
I'm not trying to tell you anything. Zune as a platform is struggling. If you think the cost of including Mac support would outweigh the potential return, that's fine.
That's definitely what I'm saying. ("You can't seriously tell me" was just rhetorical phrasing. Sorry about that.)

--janak
 
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  #8  
Old 11-27-2009, 07:16 AM
Joel Crane
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Good article Jason. Some interesting points about Zune on Mac. Recently I've become quite the fan of Microsoft. The Xbox 360 made me stop hating them, the Zune impressed me, and Windows 7 totally won me over. I've been running the RC for a while now, and I just installed Professional (Student) on my old Pentium III laptop. The whole Xbox 360, Zune and Windows 7 ecosystem works beautifully together (I am however lacking the Zune third), just like it should.
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Old 11-27-2009, 01:28 PM
Vincent Ferrari
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jason Dunn
Funny things can happen when you get a bunch of Mac users in the room: they think their platform always matters, even when it doesn't. Sounds harsh, right? Let me explain.
Good.

While you're at it explain Microsoft Office, Silverlight, Messenger, Remote Desktop, and Live Mesh being developed actively for the Mac, seeing as their platform "doesn't matter."

And... Go....

Oh, and if Apple's platform as a whole maintaining a 5% market share means it doesn't matter, why is it that you run Zune Thoughts, a site for a product I'm sure isn't exactly tearing up the market, because, by your standards, the Zune definitely 100% doesn't "matter" either.

Your standards, not mine.
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Last edited by Vincent Ferrari; 11-27-2009 at 01:30 PM..
 
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Old 11-27-2009, 02:13 PM
Felix Torres
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Janak Parekh View Post
While I'm not sure I agree with Jason about the general implications of the size of the Mac userbase, I agree completely with him here -- Microsoft would be wasting money making a Mac Zune client, and I'd be shocked if it ever happens.

--janak
The thing is, the issue is not just about Zune.
The same principle applies to dozens of products and markets.

Pretty much everywhere you go, you see products and services with limited, delayed, or non-existent Apple support (peripherals, gadgets, and web services among others) and in each case you hear the online screams from the faithful. They want to eat their cake and have it too. They want to be separate from the mainstream yet they expect (as if it were some kind of entitlement) to be supported by Apple's competitors as if they were.

Just because you are a loud minority does not make you mainstream.
Visibility does not equal relevance.
 
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