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How to Read Analysts' Shipment and Forecasts Reports


 
 
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Old 02-09-2006, 05:30 PM
Mike Temporale
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Default How to Read Analysts' Shipment and Forecasts Reports
http://mobileopportunity.blogspot.com/2006/02/how-to-read-tech-analysts-shipment.html

"I think tech industry forecasts are worthless. Completely worthless. That may sound harsh, but think about it for a minute � can you reliably predict the future? Can anyone you know do it? If anyone could predict the future, don't you think they'd get rich off the stock market rather than working at an analysis company? I once asked a very senior manager at one of the biggest tech analysis firms how they created their forecasts. He laughed. "The process involved pizza, beer, and a dart board." Here's an example of how bad tech forecasts can be: In the handheld market, the big analysis firms once predicted that handheld sales would be 60 million units a year by now. Instead they're 20 million. That's a margin of error of about 200%. If NASA forecasted that badly, Neil Armstrong would have landed in Arkansas."

Bring on the Silly Season! :lol: I always like reading the spin that comes along with the numbers. It doesn't help that every analyst categorizes devices differently to help make their points. If you've got some free time, give Micheal Mace's article a read and you'll be ready to cut through those numbers when they hit the street.
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