05-07-2008, 11:00 AM
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Contributing Editor Emeritus
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,053
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The Fool Still Doubts The Zune
“Walk away from the Zune, Microsoft. There are only two scenarios in which I can see this as a battle worth fighting: one, if this is the platform that will be used to take on your video-game console rivals in the portable handheld market; or two, if it will bring something new to the wireless communications space. If the Zune is going to evolve into the next DS or PSP, blessed with a ton more storage capacity, great. If this is going to be a cell phone, in a brazen attempt to take on the iPhone, at least you have a strong enough mobile-operating-system pedigree to have a shot.”
I’m sure that Rick Munarriz over at The Motley Fool generally knows what he’s talking about (and with a middle name like “Aristotle” I would hope so!) but I’m going to have to respectfully disagree with him here. For one thing, he compares Zune sales to Sansa sales in his article. That’s like comparing Vaio sales to an eMachine. Not really the same class of device. Sandisk crashed the market with low end players when it came in. Microsoft is taking a long term approach with quality.
His other argument was that Apple’s iPod sales stalled; therefore, Microsoft missed the boat because the market isn’t growing. I have to wonder how exactly that analysis works out. If Apple sold 10 million players in Q1 and 10 million players in Q2, it sounds to me like the market grew by about 10 million people. Unless he really thinks those were all the same people! I’d say this is still a booming market. There are a lot of people who don’t own MP3 players still and this market will continue to grow and evolve. Microsoft doesn’t need to go anywhere and I don’t think they plan to.
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05-07-2008, 01:09 PM
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Intellectual
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 190
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Your analysis is completely right, and it is amazing how many smart people are talking stupid about this. Stalled *sales growth* and stalled *sales* are two VERY different things.
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05-07-2008, 02:09 PM
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Banned
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 372
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I think you are REALLY discounting the Sansa. Zune is better "quality"? Let's talk about that quality for a sec. The Sansa supports Asian character sets.....Zune? Yeah right. I also noticed the Sansa supports wi-fi now....so much for that feather in Microsoft's hat. Thirdly, you can buy a Sansa in just about any country you want AND be able to put music on it (Canada...oh wait no music store!)
Microsoft has proven to me that Zune is really just a bunch of marketing hacks with no ability to execute on technical vision. You can talk about "social" all you want but its really just a big vision that is unattainable because they lack the programming knowhow to make it happen.
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05-07-2008, 04:33 PM
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Executive Editor
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 29,160
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Quote:
Originally Posted by inteller
I think you are REALLY discounting the Sansa. Zune is better "quality"? Let's talk about that quality for a sec. The Sansa supports Asian character sets.....Zune? Yeah right.
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I have a Sansa Clip, and while it's a fine little device and does what it was meant to do, there's really nothing particularly impressive about it - and I sure as heck don't like using Windows Media Player 11 to load it up (it felt backward compared to the Zune software). Asian character sets don't matter to me, but if that's critical to you, then it's good that SanDisk has you covered. 
Quote:
Originally Posted by inteller
Microsoft has proven to me that Zune is really just a bunch of marketing hacks with no ability to execute on technical vision. You can talk about "social" all you want but its really just a big vision that is unattainable because they lack the programming knowhow to make it happen.
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I'm curious then - what other MP3 player on the market today has anything like the Zune social/cards/sharing stuff? Have you seen the 2.5 update yet? It's quite impressive with the updates for the social aspects.
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05-07-2008, 08:32 PM
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Editor Emeritus
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 15,171
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jason Dunn
I have a Sansa Clip, and while it's a fine little device and does what it was meant to do, there's really nothing particularly impressive about it - and I sure as heck don't like using Windows Media Player 11 to load it up (it felt backward compared to the Zune software). Asian character sets don't matter to me, but if that's critical to you, then it's good that SanDisk has you covered. |
How about the Sansa Connect? That still seems to be the only device on the market that bothers to use its integrated WiFi in any useful way. Even Apple only has the a-la-carte store over WiFi, and the Zune, well... the WiFi sync was nice, but when are they going to truly take advantage of their existing subscription system? 
--janak
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05-07-2008, 08:49 PM
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Contributing Editor Emeritus
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,053
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I still think WiFi for use of anything outside your home is pretty limited in its usefulness (ie...a store)
99% of the time I'm not anywhere that I could get any use from that.
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05-07-2008, 09:42 PM
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Banned
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 372
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jason Dunn
I'm curious then - what other MP3 player on the market today has anything like the Zune social/cards/sharing stuff? Have you seen the 2.5 update yet? It's quite impressive with the updates for the social aspects.
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listen, there are PLENTY of website forums where I can get "social" or read an XML stream to build a stupid playlist card. That crap is pure marketing fluff....which fails miserably if there is no one else around you to be "social" with. When was the last time you shared a song from your zune with a stranger? The "Social" should have been an open ended framework that other vendor devices could have participated in....I bet the only place the "social" lives up to its name are highly dense areas like new York Metro where you MIGHT bump into someone else using a Zune.
When you set out to compete in a market, do some basic research and find the benchmarks your device needs to have. The Social is an answer to a question no one asked. However, BASIC UNICODE SUPPORT should have been a requirement. It is dumbfounding coming from a company that stresses Unicode support in its software.
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05-08-2008, 01:46 AM
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Contributing Editor
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 519
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Quote:
Originally Posted by inteller
When was the last time you shared a song from your zune with a stranger?
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Just last week, actually. Maybe I have the advantage of being in a densely populated area, but I actually think it's kind of cool. Sure it's a gimmick, but the player is solid, and the wireless/Social experience is fun. As long as future updates don't have such a heavy reliance on Social (things with Social should be fairly modular from now on), I'll be a happy camper. If, however, they try to do to much with the service and start pumping out these acheivements (focusing less on the fun aspect and making it more of a competition to see who as the coolest music), then we'll have some problems.
But let's not talk about standards. Have you ever tried to minimize a whole bunch of windows at once in Vista? 9 times out of 10 I accidentally hit the (?) button on the Zune software because they stupidly placed it in the exact same position as the standard minimize button. That said, Unicode is a must, and it can't come soon (Zune?) enough.
P.S. 200th Post!
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05-09-2008, 05:49 PM
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Executive Editor
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 29,160
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Quote:
Originally Posted by inteller
listen, there are PLENTY of website forums where I can get "social" or read an XML stream to build a stupid playlist card. That crap is pure marketing fluff....which fails miserably if there is no one else around you to be "social" with. When was the last time you shared a song from your zune with a stranger?
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Yeah, I understand the problems with building a network from scratch - and I think the Zune team does too. But it has to start somewhere. I've just spent the last 10 minutes in vain searching for an article I wrote on this site about how the Zune wireless sharing feature is largely misunderstood, but I can't find it. <sigh> The short version is that WiFi song sharing is like any other social activity - you're not going to do it with a random stranger. You'll share songs with your friends when you're hanging out with them - and that's exactly what I've done with my friend who has a Zune many times.
Quote:
Originally Posted by inteller
When you set out to compete in a market, do some basic research and find the benchmarks your device needs to have. The Social is an answer to a question no one asked. However, BASIC UNICODE SUPPORT should have been a requirement.
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Ok, so pretend you're Microsoft and you have enough resources for one last feature - you know you're only releasing the Zune officially in the United States...so do you spend your resources on Unicode support for the incredibly small number of people who live in the US but are connected with music from other cultures with languages that require unicode support?
Or do you spend it adding a wireless sharing feature that, even if rough around the edges and not terribly useful from day one, give you a unique selling point? I think you know the answer to that.
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05-09-2008, 10:28 AM
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Thinker
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 451
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jason Dunn
I have a Sansa Clip, and while it's a fine little device and does what it was meant to do, there's really nothing particularly impressive about it -
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Heh, I see not many audiophiles visit this site, else you'd have been chewed out for that comment. The Clip has been lapped up by them as one of the best players for sound quality. Of course I personally think they take things too far...
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