i always predicted phone prices to go down in the US when they developed wifi technology in phones that would let you switch bettwen tower coverage to voip whenever you came in distance of a hotspot. there has been several stories of experiments with technology like this in the magazine 'telephony' and elsewhere on the internet.
when you have phones that do that it would save the carriers tons of money since individuals would not be using their towers as much but they could still charge the same price for their plans hence making them able to drop the price of expensive phones since they would be making that money up 10 folds within a 1-2 year contract.
also right now the big 5 in the US are getting VERY competitive on their pricing. T-Mobile introduced the nation wide 1000 anytime minute plan with unlimited N/W for only $39.99 a month. Cingular is giving away unlimited MMS for a year with the purchase of their MediaBasic feature. Sprint has just started 6pm N/W for $10 a month. Nextel has a unlimited usage plan with data features and direct connect (push to talk) for $129.99 a month. Verizon is doing unlimited 'IN' sms/mms plans.
Big things are happening in the wireless industry right now. A move to less expensive phones wouldn't suprise me. Even if they didn't drop the price of a $300USD smartphone down to $50USD you still might see it drop down to $100-$150USD.
-opti-