End of the World...

[PhatCohiba]

... as we know it.

Am I the only one who thinks that the whole computer industry is about to go through some radical change? I can't put my finger on it exactly but here is my evidence.

1) Storage becoming ridiculously cheep.
100 GB hard drives for less then $1 / GB allowing one to store more music, movies, and text files then you can watch or listen to in a year.
Memory cards for my PPC droping to the point where hundreads of mb can be had for 5-10 mb / $. How much pocket storage do you need, at $75 bucks / 256mb SD cards, how many would you use? If you need a 1gb cf card, cool, but what would you do with three?

As these prices drop, how will you use the space? Not just today but over the next years.

2) RAM and CPU's becoming cheap too, near as I can tell, there are only two things that can use the RAM and CPU power of todays computers: Video encoding / processing and Games (no disrespect for all of you SETI fans). What will you do with 10 times the current processing power?

3) Why a Pocket PC OS? Why not just run Windows XP / Tablet in a PPC form factor? In 2-3 years you'll have the processing power, storage, video screen size etc to make that a reality. (my current desktop runs a p3 733 w/ 256mb ram. Runs Win XP great, an Axim today has a 400mhz processor, and I could add 512 SD and 1gb CF. )

Whats going to happen to these computers we use? If people and companies bought computers as often as they buy desk phones, who'd need to find a new job?

What will the new machines be able to do?

[PhatCohiba]

... as we know it.

Am I the only one who thinks that the whole computer industry is about to go through some radical change? I can't put my finger on it exactly but here is my evidence.

1) Storage becoming ridiculously cheep.
100 GB hard drives for less then $1 / GB allowing one to store more music, movies, and text files then you can watch or listen to in a year.
Memory cards for my PPC droping to the point where hundreads of mb can be had for 5-10 mb / $. How much pocket storage do you need, at $75 bucks / 256mb SD cards, how many would you use? If you need a 1gb cf card, cool, but what would you do with three?

As these prices drop, how will you use the space? Not just today but over the next years.

2) RAM and CPU's becoming cheap too, near as I can tell, there are only two things that can use the RAM and CPU power of todays computers: Video encoding / processing and Games (no disrespect for all of you SETI fans). What will you do with 10 times the current processing power?

3) Why a Pocket PC OS? Why not just run Windows XP / Tablet in a PPC form factor? In 2-3 years you'll have the processing power, storage, video screen size etc to make that a reality. (my current desktop runs a p3 733 w/ 256mb ram. Runs Win XP great, an Axim today has a 400mhz processor, and I could add 512 SD and 1gb CF. )

Whats going to happen to these computers we use? If people and companies bought computers as often as they buy desk phones, who'd need to find a new job?

What will the new machines be able to do?

[dotcomguy]

It's an endless cycle. One thing I'll add is that PC's are at a good point right now. As you mentioned, though processor speeds are increasing, they do not benefit most users. I think more focus should be given toward improving web technologies since it is obviously part of the future. Processors are at Ghz, but the internet still moves at 56kbps (broadband does not count because it isn't available to everyone). There is a definite problem and hindrance to the web's future innovation there.

[yunez]

With desktops i think you have a point, but not with PocketPCs.

I think the biggest change about desktops is their continued price drops, becoming even more of a commodity item. Sure they will get faster, but that mainly benefits power users (as you stated). The desktop market will be challenged by the moblie market, with laptops taking a larger share and tablet PCs joining in. At this point, laptops and especially tablet PCs are still relatively expensive, but they are also dropping in price.

With pocketPCs, i think we are very far from running winXP on our palms. My dell 400 is sluggish, and has limited memory, and is expensive. Performance is akin to a pentium 133, which is quite frustrating. I dont know about you, but $75 for a 256mb is expensive to me. I want a GB at that price, cos 256 is not nearly enough. In 2-3 years we will probably have integrated wifi, 128mb ram standard, 600mhz xscale, and possibly 4" screens. That looks like a good combination, but what im really eyeing is the price. Hopefully the average selling price will drop significantly.