Another interesting point that could be mentioned is that "ALL" the PPC users that I know (myself included) have started out using a Palm not a PPC. Asking them why they started with a Palm and the answer was simply that they though that all PDA's were made by Palm. Once they started looking at the PDA world they saw that Palm wasn't the only PDA game in town. They actually found out that there was grass on the other side and that it was greener.
Not me... I could have been the poster child for following what Microsoft had spinning around in their collective heads regarding portable computing, since I went through 2 different handheld PCs (Cassiopeia A-11 and A-20) as my first PDAs. I certainly was aware of Palms and other PDAs (like the Palm-size PC), but I remember thinking of the now ubiquitous form factor along these lines... "How dumb... how can you get any real work done without a real keyboard." Of course, I remained in complete denial of the fact that I wasn't getting any real work done at all with those handheld PCs... they were 100% cool factor. "Look, I have a miniature version of Windows 95 on this thing that doesn't even have to boot! And I can connect to my ISP, read and send e-mail and actually do web surfing! How cool is that?"
At least I've always worn my geekhood with the greatest of pride... :wink:
Then a coworker with whom I was engaged in a bitter and ongoing battle for the title of alpha geek showed up one day with this new Cassiopeia E-15 Palm-size PC thing. Well, as I did the requisite research to see if this new round in our battle had any merit, I came to the realization that Microsoft was actually going in the direction of that "dumb form factor" without a keyboard, and the units with keyboards were phasing out. Although initially panicky, I finally had a zen moment when I realized that he had just handed me my pocket protector on a silver platter. It was a decisive win, and he deserved the title of alpha geek, so I tried to be gracious in defeat.
The graciousness didn't last long. About a week later, I decided to get a little bit of revenge, geek style. First, I went out and bought my own E-15. We were both early starters at work, but I always beat him there by about 1/2 hour. I waited until he had just gotten there but before he had unpacked his junk for the day. Then I grabbed my E-15 and walked past him while playing with it. Then I said something to the effect that "You're right, this thing is pretty cool!", acting as if I had gone into his stuff and grabbed his E-15 and just started playing with it without asking his permission. "I didn't think you'd mind if I tried it out a bit myself." I had him a bit speechless that I'd have the audacity to just commandeer his pride and joy... "Sure... I guess it's OK." The look on his face was priceless... but then I finally let him off the hook and told him that I had actually gone out and gotten my own E-15, and that's what I was playing with. I'm just glad that he didn't get genuinely pissed at me for messing with him like that. But at least I had gotten a small measure of revenge for my defeat at his hands for the alpha geek title. Geek humor... gotta love it.
This was more of a techie geek setting. Shortly afterwards, I left that company and went to a company that was more along the lines of the "business geek" level, and I still work there today. Here I had my Palm-size PC that I brought to all the meetings and all of the geeks there were carrying their Palm IIIe's, with the alphas carrying Palm V's. And all of them looked at me with my MS-based PDA as if I had just grown a third eye. "What's that thing? Oh, it's not a real Palm..." as they dismissed me as some kind of geek poseur.
But I took it in stride. I inevitably came to the point where my quest for toys began calling to me once again. So I rationalized a new toy purchase by saying to myself... "there are so many of my kind out there at work using these Palms... there must be something to it. Perhaps I must check it out myself." So I went out to Circuit City and bought my own Palm V, figuring that I'd use that at work to "fit in" better, and use my E-15 as my toy at home.
After spending several hours that night setting the thing up, I was left quite unimpressed. "This thing's graphics suck by comparison to my E-15, and the software is so primitive... not like the desktop stuff at all. And the PIM can't handle lots of my Outlook data." Clearly I had bought into the MS approach quite heavily, although very few others did at that point in time.
So the following day I packed the whole mess up and returned it to Circuit City, exchanging it for a second E-15. One I could play with at home to my heart's content, and the other would be my work unit for really serious work. But then I also got real serious about the work unit thing and went out and got Intellisync (yuck) so that I could synch with Lotus Notes (double yuck), the PIM that we use there.
Once I canned Intellisync and found Commontime Cadenza (now mNotes, the only real way to go if you want to use a PDA with Lotus Notes), there was no stopping me. I skipped the color Palm-size PCs and resisted a bit when the first Pocket PCs came out before rationalizing one of them into my toy collection... a Casio E-115. (Great screen, but way too slow.) Then a Casio E-125 (Still a great screen and much better speed. But too much of a brick.) Then my first iPAQ, a 3630. The screen sucked compared to the Casio's, but it was small and light and fast. But much more importantly, it was the cool PDA at the time. The iPAQ was the first MS platform PDA that became a "gotta have it" product... the iPAQs were the PDA to have, and the Palms were suddenly so... last year. So rather than being the odd man out among the legions of Palm devotees with the "ersatz Palm wannabee" as before, now I had the latest and coolest thing in PDAs, and all those Palm snobs were now eating my dust. I had reached my true goal... recognized as the uncontested alpha geek there, and I hold that position to this day. Not to mention the fact that I'm "published" on a major Pocket PC site (this one) and I'm even the review coordinator AND an administrator. So now not only was I the uncontested alpha geek, but I managed to push the envelope for the position considerably. I had achieved true geek nirvana, and all was right with the world. 8)
And yes, pathetic really IS my middle name. No, not really, but it probably should be... :wink:
What's really happening here is that I'm recovering from major surgery and the meds make it hard for me to sleep. So I've been killing time by writing. I hope Jason sees this message, because he's been the recipient of a couple of these outrageous ramblings, so he'll probably get a kick out of this one, too. I always get a good laugh reading about someone else's ascendency into true geekhood, and I love to compare notes. :grouphug:
Now, if I had enough new products to work with and could harness this energy into writing reviews, the whole review team could probably take the rest of the year off... :rotfl:
"Death can come swiftly to a market leader. By the time you have lost the positive-feedback cycle it's often too late to change what you've been doing, and all of the elements of a negative spiral come into play." - Bill Gates, "The Road Ahead", Chapter 3
"In this business, by the time you realize you're in trouble, it's too late to save yourself. Unless you're running scared all the time, you're gone." - Bill Gates
Another interesting point that could be mentioned is that "ALL" the PPC users that I know (myself included) have started out using a Palm not a PPC. Asking them why they started with a Palm and the answer was simply that they though that all PDA's were made by Palm. Once they started looking at the PDA world they saw that Palm wasn't the only PDA game in town. They actually found out that there was grass on the other side and that it was greener.
Well, *my* progression started on the HPC side; NEC mobilePro --> Philips Velo --> HP568 + IBM z50 --> HP Tc1000 (tablet PC) :-)
(My next toy will likely be an iMate jam.)
But yes, a lot of PocketPC users started on the Palm side and then moved up as the "zen of simplicity" became too limited.
Old timers around here remember the old mantra: "Palms are connected organizers, PPCs are pocket computers!"
Well, nowadays Palm is trying to build pocket computers by adding hardware features to the old architecture. But me, I find the results...puzzling...
Last year they embedded a thumb-drive in a PDA; this year they embedded a micro-drive. Both have some uses, but are hardly revolutionary, certainly not to folks who have been using CF microdrives for years (during which I haven't heard of any six second lag issues...?)
What I've seen of late that should be troubling to Palm isn't losing high-end customers to PocketPCs--that's old news as you point out--but that now they're losing *low-end* customers to alternatives; a friend of mine got his wife a Motorola 220--out when a Palm. I also saw two others get Creative Labs Zen Micros, this week, and out went two more palms. One of the latter is using the digital music player as a USB hard drive to both hold her personal Outlook PST file at work and home *and* to sync the contacts, schedule, and to-do list with the player software. Since all she used the Palm for was to look up the data, not input it, the Zen works like a charm and gives her all she'd need from the Lifedrive for a third the cost.
I hear similar stories of POD people using the vestigial PDA features in the iPOD and I have to wonder how many blister-pack ZIRE sales are being lost to digital music players instead of cellphones and PPCs...
(Keep an eye on the Sony PSP, Gizmondo, and the second-gen PMCs due this year, too.)
If this continues, how could PALM move upstream in a market with JAMs, MDAiv's, Samsung Nexio's, and the upcoming mini-Tablet PCs...?
The clock is ticking and I have yet to see any signs that either the hardware or the software side of the platform is capable of delivering anything like a contemporary high-end pocket computer to offset the low-end losses. A death-spiral may be in the making... :?
We all expected PALM to be squeezed between PPCs and smartphones, but when they start losing customers to music players and portable game-players...
If this continues, how could PALM move upstream in a market with JAMs, MDAiv's, Samsung Nexio's, and the upcoming mini-Tablet PCs...?
Well Palm still has the right mix of features and industrial design with Treo 650. I myself am this >*< close to buying an Unlocked GSM model for myself (I get a special Press discount). The only thing holding me back is that I haven't yet really had a chance to peruse the WinMob side of the Smartphone fence, and there are a lot of interesting devices in that category. iMate's JAM looks like something that would give me reason to pause in purchasing a Treo right away.
But my experience with the review unit PalmOne sent me impressed me so much I fell IN LOVE with the Treo 650. You guys can criticize PalmOne or Psource all you want, but the fact is PalmOne has one of the best (perhaps even THE) Smartphone hardware/software designs on the market today, even putting the Blackberry to shame. And that's not something I would dismiss so quickly.
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Kent Pribbernow Elitist Snob, Contributing writer for Wired's Cult of Mac
Well Palm still has the right mix of features and industrial design with Treo 650. I myself am this >*< close to buying an Unlocked GSM model for myself (I get a special Press discount). The only thing holding me back is that I haven't yet really had a chance to peruse the WinMob side of the Smartphone fence, and there are a lot of interesting devices in that category. iMate's JAM looks like something that would give me reason to pause in purchasing a Treo right away.
Different tastes.
<shrug>
I've looked at the Treo but I find it an odd fit for my hands.
The ergonomics don't work for me.
Plus it wastes valuable surface area on that itty-bity keyboard.
Me, I don't IM or SMS or compose on the road; I have three PCs for that kind of stuff.
The Jam, on the other hand is thin and light, has WMP10 and MS Reader, and it works with MS Voice command.
Phone, media player, and ebook reader are three devices I own and can consolidate into one with the Jam. Add in a Yahoo music subscription and a 1Gb SD card and I have a compelling package for *my* needs.
Price is a bit high but I still might bite the bullet.
(right now I'm waiting to see what the story is on WM5 and the Jam.)
The thing about Palm and the Treo, though, is that it is not a volume device. (Neither is the Jam, but the Jam is part of a broad ecosystem that sustains many compatible devices.)
Palm once had 100% of the PDA market.
Now its down to 29%.
Treo is not going to grow that.
Lifedrive won't either.
Which means that that 29%, which is still dominated by Zire sales, is never going to be higher.
Palm essentially bet the farm on volume and market share; to turn around this late in the game and go for high-margin low volume products will only feed the market share decline and the perception of a death spiral.
And, alas, history has shown us that nothing starts a death-spiral faster than the "perception" that one is under way.
I had a Treo 600 (Sprint) for a few days. The Treo might be the best smartphone on the market today, but that still doesn't make it a great phone. The poor sound quality, shoody craftsmanship, bugginess, fragility, clunky size would not allow me to replace my bulletproof little Nokia phone. It was a poor cell phone and a marginal PDA (relative to My Nokia 6560 and Palm T3)
Voice/Cell Phone reliability/sound quality is very important to me - especially since I speak with my customers every day on my Cell Phone. The last thing I need is to irritate my customers because they can't hear me or vice-versa - or if I miss their calls. It's just not acceptable. I think I (and most of us) have been really spoiled with the great job that companies like Nokia, Motorola and others have done in advancing cell phone technology - from a sound quality/size/reliability/durability/battery-life standpoint. Now granted, most of these "dumb" phones have only rudimentary PIM functions - so the less complexity - the less room for problems - but how much PIM functionality do the "masses" need?
There are a few guys in my office who still use the Treo 600 but they always biitch and complain about them - (screens go blank/resets/missed calls/poor sound/other defects). And if you look at the posts on TreoCentral.com - there's tons of horror stories. Maybe I'm too picky but I won't stand for that in 2005 - and I need to be accessible.
I think the T650 is even more buggy due to the adding of NVFS. A cell phone can not afford to be buggy in 2005. Most people like me won't stand for it - we're too spoiled.
I think the smartphones look great on paper - and the Treo line may be the best out there now - but I think we'll need to wait a few more generations (if ever) before they reach the PHONE-quality of the Nokia, Motorola products.
I obviously have not used one, but my perception has always been that Palm specialized in adding "nice touches" which improves usability, while MS leaves this up to third party developers.
MS has quite far to go in "delight their customers" and making people fall in love with the ease of use of their devices vs the power and extensibility.
If this continues, how could PALM move upstream in a market with JAMs, MDAiv's, Samsung Nexio's, and the upcoming mini-Tablet PCs...?
Well Palm still has the right mix of features and industrial design with Treo 650. I myself am this >*< close to buying an Unlocked GSM model for myself (I get a special Press discount). The only thing holding me back is that I haven't yet really had a chance to peruse the WinMob side of the Smartphone fence, and there are a lot of interesting devices in that category. iMate's JAM looks like something that would give me reason to pause in purchasing a Treo right away.
But my experience with the review unit PalmOne sent me impressed me so much I fell IN LOVE with the Treo 650. You guys can criticize PalmOne or Psource all you want, but the fact is PalmOne has one of the best (perhaps even THE) Smartphone hardware/software designs on the market today, even putting the Blackberry to shame. And that's not something I would dismiss so quickly.
Foo - Did you ever buy a Treo? I remember when you were championing a "Bring the Treo To Verizon" petition about 2 years ago - and bitching and complaining that Verizon didn't offer it - and then you finally got your wish on the 600 and now the 650. Are you *STILL* dragging your feet after all that bitching? Be careful what you wish for?
Foo - Did you ever buy a Treo? I remember when you were championing a "Bring the Treo To Verizon" petition about 2 years ago - and bitching and complaining that Verizon didn't offer it - and then you finally got your wish on the 600 and now the 650. Are you *STILL* dragging your feet after all that bitching? Be careful what you wish for?
I dumped Verizon earlier this year and went with Cingular, in part to the flexibility of phone options on GSM networks (just pop your SIM card into your new phone..and away you go). I bitched at Verizon because they are ALWAYS last to adopt new phone models, and by the time they do, replacement models arrive.
I didn't go with the 600 series because of the hardware limitations (160x160 display, no Bluetooth, etc.). Now the 650 series nearly has me jumping onboard, but I want to check out Windows Mobile options first..particularly the JAM. I'm supposed to be receiving a JAM from iMate for review, as well as a Siemens SX66. Can't wait to see how they stack up. Of the two I'm more impressed by the JAM because of its smaller design and more phone-like form factor.
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Kent Pribbernow Elitist Snob, Contributing writer for Wired's Cult of Mac