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Originally Posted by "Foo Fighter

Palm will sell twice as many Tungstens between now and January than Dell will with its $199 PPC. It doesn't matter how cheap the Dell is because it runs a less popular OS. The market has already chosen PalmOS as the "standard" platform. A $199 PPC isn't going to change that.

Time will tell

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Originally Posted by "Foo Fighter

Palm will sell twice as many Tungstens between now and January than Dell will with its $199 PPC. It doesn't matter how cheap the Dell is because it runs a less popular OS. The market has already chosen PalmOS as the "standard" platform. A $199 PPC isn't going to change that.

Time will tell

[Foo Fighter]

Originally Posted by entropy1980

...because what your saying is price is irrelevant

Not at all. On the contrary, Zire is currently the top selling PDA at Amazon.com.

I'm saying price isn't the only factor. Price + platform popularity (ubiquity) + largest volume of third party software = winning platform. In the case of Zire...it's cheap, and it runs PalmOS.

which is shifting now in favor of PPCs.

Really? That's odd. I haven't seen any innovation from the PPC camp since the e740. IMO, PPCs are getting very boring. Just a bunch of clone look-a-likes.

Where's PPCs answer to the Sony NX?

And while they may sell 2X the Tungstens as Dell's Axim, they won't sell 2X the Tungstens of HP's 1910,V35, and Axim.

Maybe not, but Tungsten, Zire, Sony Clie NX will outsell PPC by a huge margin..as they do now.

[entropy1980]

Originally Posted by Foo Fighter

I'm saying price isn't the only factor. Price + platform popularity (ubiquity) + largest volume of third party software = winning platform. In the case of Zire...it's cheap, and it runs PalmOS.

Tungsten runs OS 5 as you know which Palm claims 80% compatibility (of which has to be programmed to Palm's standards no hacks/work arounds) so that hurts the ubiquity arguement if you start segmenting what software you can run on what model.

Originally Posted by Foo Fighter

Really? That's odd. I haven't seen any innovation from the PPC camp since the e740. IMO, PPCs are getting very boring. Just a bunch of clone look-a-likes.

The innovation is in the price to performance ratio. More bang for your buck. Last I checked there was no Palm with Wifi, (they are just getting bluetooth integrated),No Palm with an integrated biometrics, No Palm with Native support for Word, Excel, MP3 (except Sony on the Mp3), and No integrated Web Browser(worth anything anyway). IMHO Palm is playing catch-up with features they calimed were irrelevant. Besides if Palm was doing so well why the heck do they lose money every quarter? If you take Microsoft's ubiquity on the desktop they don't post losses there so why does Palm continue to do so if they are the market leader and ubiquitous in the handheld market?

Originally Posted by Foo Fighter

Maybe not, but Tungsten, Zire, Sony Clie NX will outsell PPC by a huge margin..as they do now.

Yeah but I didn't even take into account the high end market or Toshiba. Don't underestimate corporate spending on features such as integrated WiFi and or Biometrics, if you company has a wireless LAN PPC is the only way to go, if you have sensitive data then PPC is the only way to go. So while industrial design may lag (read: clones) i believe that's to come with the next PPC OS.

[Bob Anderson]

Wow.. who would have thought an analysis of MSFT profit/loss statements would lead to a Palm vs PPC war of words!

Here's my two cents worth on the subject.

Yes, PPC marketshare dipped a little bit in recent history, I believe that to be a bit of an oddity, not a trend. With the new PPC low price entries into the marketplace, I think PPC is going to gain back a nice chunk of market share.

Plus, as I've been harping on for a while now, I'm sure MSFT is not that far off from releasing a new version of PPC -- one that will (IMHO) take advantage of Xscale -- and when that new version comes out, it will do for market share what PPC2002 did ... make it go up substantially.

Let's face it, Microsoft is in this for the long haul! They will "refuse to lose". They've got a greater depth of knowledge and resources and Palm licensees will not maintain their market share for much longer. So it seems a bit unrealistic to say Palm will never drop below PPC...

Now, I personally plan on boosting PPC marketshare with my purchase of the ipaq 5450!!

[Foo Fighter]

Originally Posted by entropy1980

...so that hurts the ubiquity argument if you start segmenting what software you can run on what model.

Even that "fragmented" software market still offers you more available software than PPC.

The innovation is in the price to performance ratio. More bang for your buck.

So. PalmOS device will continue to fall in price and offer more features for less money. That's the normal cycle in a competitive market.

Last I checked there was no Palm with Wifi, (they are just getting bluetooth integrated),

You'll see that in the coming months.

No Palm with an integrated biometrics,

That is a niche feature that has no value to the consumer. Vertical markets will appreciate this form of security, but that's about it.

No Palm with Native support for Word, Excel,

Not true. Many of Palm's products ship with Documents to Go..which is superior to Microsoft's "Pocket Office".

MP3 (except Sony on the Mp3),

Tungsten will support MP3. Real is developing playback software.

and No integrated Web Browser(worth anything anyway).

Again, you are wrong. Several PalmOS device (including Tungsten) ship with bundled browsers.

IMHO Palm is playing catch-up with features they claimed were irrelevant.

And they are doing quite well at it.

Besides if Palm was doing so well why the heck do they lose money every quarter?

Well, aside from the poor economic climate, they have battled with Sony and Handspring in brutal price-war. Margins were thin....volumes were down, hence lower profits. Despite the rhetoric you may hear, Palm is not dying. Sales are increasing, market share is rising (at Microsoft's cost), and the stock is going up again. The slide is over, Palm is regaining traction.

If you take Microsoft's ubiquity on the desktop they don't post losses there so why does Palm continue to do so if they are the market leader and ubiquitous in the handheld market?

Oh come on now. Those are two diametrically opposed market segments. First of all, Microsoft never reduces margins on Windows. They don't have to because they have a monopoly on the desktop. They don't have to compete. Palm doesn't have that luxury. They are up against Sony and Handspring. If one drops prices, the other must follow.

So while industrial design may lag (read: clones) i believe that's to come with the next PPC OS.

We'll see.

[toshtoshtosh]

There's one more argument in the Palm vs PPC discussion. Microsoft has NEVER lost a battle . And that's been true in situations where they were offering the weaker product. I don't see them losing a battle where they are offering a superior product.

And before you say PS2, let me say XBox2, XBox3, Xbox4, Xbox5...

Endless well of money always helps . Hell, if it comes down to it they'll BUY Palm and put their name on it.

[entropy1980]

Foo you missed my point entirely Palm doesn't have native native support for the aforementioned sure they bundle stuff but it's not native. As far as browsers go name a decent browser that can accomplish everything either Pocket IE, or Bitstream's Thunderhawk? As far as price darn right they will fall... why? No one in their right mind would pay 500 dollars for a Palm with virtually no significant changes over previous OS 4.x. Sure they are on ARM now but only by using an emulator. OOO they make the bottom slide to make it short? Come on! Vertical markets are where a huge amount of money is at. If Sony and Handspring are such problems then drop them as linscencees(sp) , why won't they? They can't you know that I know that. The fact is Palm will kill itself and end up being bought up by Sony or someone else because I can't and won't survive on it's own. Pocket PCs have cought up on price now and they won't look back. Next up will be features and design, your crazy if you think Microsoft will roll over and die.They will learn to adapt quicker and better (they have in just aout every other market they try, try and try again till they get it right) You will see PPCs at every segment of the market. Dell will commoditize the market others will have better asthetics. Palm can't afford to mess up MS can till they get it right, and when they do (on price and features) Palm can say good night or hello to a new owner.

[Ed Hansberry]

Originally Posted by Bob Anderson

Wow.. who would have thought an analysis of MSFT profit/loss statements would lead to a Palm vs PPC war of words!

I figured it would go there, thus my decision to put it in the COMPETITION section.

[Foo Fighter]

Originally Posted by entropy1980

...sure they bundle stuff but it's not native.

What difference does it make whether the software is stored in RAM or ROM. It gets the job done, and it works much more seamlessly with Microsoft's Office software than PPC.

As far as browsers go name a decent browser that can accomplish everything either Pocket IE, or Bitstream's Thunderhawk?

Hmm...well there's Handspring's Blazer browser, and Palm's Web Pro browser is every bit as capable as PIE.

As far as price darn right they will fall... why? No one in their right mind would pay 500 dollars for a Palm

Ha! Six months from now Tungsten will still lead PPC in sales, and everyone will be scratching their heads wondering why on Earth anyone is paying more for Palm when they can have PPC. :roll:

with virtually no significant changes over previous OS 4.x.

Virtually no *visible* changes over OS4.1. OS5 brings the Palm platform over to ARM/xScale. And the best is yet to come. With the release of OS6 next year, PalmSource will begin making customized embedded OS's for MP3 players and other digital devices.

Sure they are on ARM now but only by using an emulator.

Wrong. The OS does not run in emulation. It is ARM native. Non-native OS5 apps run in the emulation layer (PACE). But the OS itself is not in emulation.

OOO they make the bottom slide to make it short? Come on!

Have you looked at a Tungsten? That little slider illustrates why PPC is never going to displace PalmOS. It makes the device more wearable and compact when necessary. Let's see...iPaq has the sleeve system which makes it BIGGER? No thanks.

Vertical markets are where a huge amount of money is at.

Yes, but that market has absolutely nothing to do with consumer electronics. Unless of course your next PDA is going to be a Symbol handheld scanning device?

If Sony and Handspring are such problems then drop them as licensees(sp) , why won't they? They can't you know that I know that.

You are confusing Palm with PalmSource. Palm is the hardware company, PalmSource is the OS subsidiary. Palm can't drop Sony anymore than Dell can drop Toshiba.

The fact is Palm will kill itself and end up being bought up by Sony or someone else because

That's an opinion...not fact. And since we're on the subject of killing....what impact do you think Dell is going to have on the PPC market? I can tell you that all of the smaller PPC players are going to vaporize quickly. Say goodbye to that Razor Zayo. And if Dell really starts stealing marketshare away from Toshiba and HP, it will drive those players away. Instead of growing PPCs marketshare, it will shrink it by killing away the competition. Toshiba will be first to go.

Pocket PCs have caught up on price now and they won't look back.

No, Dell has caught up in price. The others may not want to go forward.

your crazy if you think Microsoft will roll over and die.

Microsoft, die? Never, but they may give up this fight and concentrate on markets where they actually stand a chance of winning...like MSN, xBox...

You will see PPCs at every segment of the market.

Sure we'll see PPCs in every segment of the market. The question is...will people buy them? You can lead a horse to water but you can't make him drink it.

[ThomasC22]

Palm vs. PocketPC - Foo, my man, what happened? I mean, I know most people think you're a Palm fanatic but I've always found you pretty balanced, but this thread you are just Mr. Palm!

As for the issue, I really think it's far too early to proclaim an "industry standard" platform at this point. Enterprise sales are still nothing, consumer sales still have a lot of room to grow, and there are a lot of first-generation PDA users (which started to come in with the m100 series type devices) who are now looking to get a more "serious PDA". A few predictions and things that I think will make the difference in the Coming year:

Enterprise: I think PocketPC will take off here. Dell has a huge customer base and companies like buying from one vendor (which is what made Dell so popular in the first place). But, for this to work Dell has to address the main issue for enterprise right now which is Cheap Wirless.

The problem with current PocketPC implementations of Wireless is that (A) their Wi-Fi and (B) they are too far reaching and hence too expensive.

OK, I'm going to go out on a limb here and say what I think many people are already beginning to realize, Wi-Fi is a waste of most companies time. Sure, in a warehouse it might be great but even then I think almost any company I know of would prefer a secure GSM/CDMA/TDMA connection on a PDA. The whole point of wireless is to mobilize your staff and if they're tied to your hot spots they might as well be tied to a cable plugged into the wall.

As for too far reaching, honestly, I really don't want my staff to be able to access the web on their PDA. E-Mail and whatever little app I provide them will be more than enough for me...but what I do want is unlimited access. I don't want to be charged a nickle every time a staff member checks their E-Mail. This is the problem with PPC implementations right now and why most companies are choosing devices running on Pager networks (e.g. Blackberry and Palm i705) rather than PPCs running on phone networks.

Consumer: For me, I really think "average consumer" sales of PDAs boils down to attractiveness and "wow" features and sadly, until PPC manufacturers step up to the plate and compete with Sony I think the Palm platform will win out here (Biometric scanners are great but I know my grandma would prefer a Digital Camera).

So for me, I think they stay even for a while here. I will agree with Foo in that the PPC manufacturers (or at least one of them) have to start looking at some hardware innovation that doesn't include built in wireless.