Our friend Mr Kirvin is a huge fan of these devices, but as Engadget says:
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Even when/if it does come out, the Ultra Mobile PC will still fall squarely into the no-man’s land of portable computers—it’s too big to fit in your pocket and too small to serve as your main machine.
I agree that pure play PDA's are in danger of annihilation by PDAphones, but if you need data on the go PDAphones (not smartphones) will be a major opposition and competition to this device. If you add a phone to it you will have to carry it everywhere to receive phone calls. Where are you going to keep it while walking down the street? Will all men now carry handbags? Desktop software will be poorly suited to the small screen and slow processors.
Tablet PC's are selling poorly, and if BG thinks making them smaller will make them sell better he is fooling himself.
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The Tablet PC market is due to grow from $1.2 billion in 2004 to $5.4 billion in 2009
This part is actually the most amusing. PDA's/PDA phones are already making as much as this NOW. Are these more expensive, more unwieldy devices supposed to supplant them?
Yes, brilliant, because EVERYBODY wants a one-pound cell phone the size of a novel, and it'll be so easy to carry in the super-reenforced piton-anchored pockets that we'll have by then. :deadhorse:
For being a genius, Gates sure can be an idiot sometimes. If he wants to dedicate R&D to something, build better batteries, or try to create a solid-state XP handheld. Something USEFUL.
I too am a member of the non-convergence bandwagon. I simply see too many sacrifices in current converged devices. There's no PocketPC phone that matches the functionality of my Axim X50v, and I'd do things with a phone that I would never consider doing to my Axim.
Well for a guy like Bill Gates, who probably has a 72" Plazma TV in every room, a PPC with a 2.8" screen has to be a real disappointment. I don't know what Bill's problem is with Pocket PCs. I'm not sure he can say the words. I've never here them come out of his mouth. He will say PDA, or phone, but not Pocket PC...Yet clearly MS is putting a lot of weight behind the future of mobility, and making sure it all ties into a Windows PC.
Engadget are right, one pound devices like this one are too big to fit in your pocket, and too small to replace a PC or laptop. To carry something of that size around you need some sort of bag to put it in, so why not carry a full functioning laptop?
We are never going to see a killer portable device, because everyone's portable needs are different. Pocket PC will work for some. Smartphones will work for others, and laptops will be needed for others as well. I just don't see where something like this fits in. Where are the advantages? What is gained by having a bigger device compared to a Windows Mobile device, or a smaller device compared to a laptop?
It's true Gates never has much to say about the Pocket PC (and I have always sadly regarded that as evidence of a lack of interest in or commitment to the platform), but I have read interviews featuring him talking effusively about Smartphone.
And that's the issue I think: I am guessing he sees a bright future for Smartphones but none for the Pocket PC as we know it. in this case with regard to the devices under discussion we should think less "converged device" and more of a device based on downsized and updated Tablet PC technology (including touch screens, which I believe they plan to add to tablets at some stage) with a simpler interface that's aimed largely at the space currently occupied by the Pocket PC, with room for taking up some more as well.
None of this should come as any surprise to anyone who attended or read reports of the Computing On The Beach panel discussion at PDC 2003: I think the Pocket PC has essentially been regarded as a "placeholder" until a more complete version of Windows could be implemented practically in a similar form factor.
This is actually a good reason for developers to start targeting the .NET Compact Framework once version 2 becomes available: while an OS shift is normally bad news for existing software, I think there's a very good change that when and if this new class of device is introduced, software written in the .NETCF version current at the time will run on them with few if any problems (and now would probably be a good time to start letting Microsofties know that this is what we would like to see).
There's already evidence of even non-.NET based convergence for mobile devices: the new SQL Mobile database engine that is to replace SQL CE will run on the Tablet PC.
Hmm, but these new wafer-thin screens that Toshiba is making might surprise us all. Perhaps in the future we'll be carrying "scrolls" more than blocks.
In any case, I agree about the size of these new designs. Does Gates envision hoards of businessmen with briefcases? Or kids with satchels?
It's great to think that whatever the future, it's highly likely it won't be long in coming.
...the last two Verizon PDA's - the VX6600 and I730, have sold 20,000-30,000 units. Sounds like a lot except when you figure that Verizon has about 45 millions cell phone users - a value of about 6 1/2 percent. Not a staggering number IMO.
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Pardon me but it rather looks like it is 0.65%,not 6.5%...
Question # 1. What company has ever had a successful computing product between the size of the Axim X50v and a full laptop?
Question # 2. What task will such a device perform that an HTC Universal can't already perform?
Answer #1 Well, not PSion, not Poquet, not Atari Portfolio, Not Laser PC1, PC2, PC3, PC4....., not AlphaSmart, Not Quikwriter, Not HP subnotebooks that ran Windows or PocketPC, not Apple Newton, not Zoomer, Not HP Omnibook, not Sharp Wizard, not......well you get the idea. There is not going to be a successful product like this one. It's silly to think so. Bill Gates has no clue how to create any original product. He never has done so and never will.
Answer #2. Well, the HTC can phone home, has a keyboard (and will work with a folding full-sized Stowaway) has the music, the video, the VGA screen, will work with docs (just like a desktop via TextMaker). No, it's true that it won't run your desktop software, but there are so few task that are proviced by some small programs still on shelves that are not replacable with PPC apps. This will effect very few people. In fact, it is just as likely that these small market Windows desktop programs are too old to run properly on such an oddly configured piece of hardware anyway. To buy a $1,000 device to do this is just silly when you can already do it on an HTC Universal.
Hmm, but these new wafer-thin screens that Toshiba is making might surprise us all. Perhaps in the future we'll be carrying "scrolls" more than blocks.
To buy a $1,000 device to do this is just silly when you can already do it on an HTC Universal.
The entire concept is very silly.
Yea, I think the same thing as well. Until the UPCs can easily fit in customers' pockets, turn on and off instantly, and run at least 5 hours on a charge, then I can see them possibly replacing PDAs... but I doubt that will happen. PDAs will always be around. They are the only devices that can provide pure PDA functionality, and I think that will remain for at least the next 7 years. I can't imagine an UPC that is shrunkin to the size of the H4155 w/a keyboard. Can anyone else?
Re: Ultra Mobile 2007: Gates' New Pet Project?
I don't know what Bill's problem is with Pocket PCs. I'm not sure he can say the words. I've never here them come out of his mouth. He will say PDA, or phone, but not Pocket PC...Yet clearly MS is putting a lot of weight behind the future of mobility, and making sure it all ties into a Windows PC.
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