"Windows Mobile phones continue to bleed US subscribers, with Android devices picking up most of the lost subscriber share. Can you say free falling? Today, ComScore released standard handset and smartphone data for the three-month period of November 2009 to January 2010. ComScore designates the platforms by vendor. Microsoft smartphone subscriber share fell to 15.7 percent from 19.7 percent three months earlier. Meanwhile, Google rose to 7.1 percent from 2.8 percent during the same time period."
I agree that Windows Mobile is hurting - for now. I hardly ever see anyone with a Windows Mobile device anymore and I really don't hear many talking about near future purchases of Windows Mobile devices.But if we look back, sales of MS Vista were also low but sales of Windows 7 have been very good. I think the same is going to be true for the Windows Phone 7 series. And even though it's still months away, I don't think we'll see enough drastic changes in the Iphone or Android devices to keep people away from what Microsoft will offer. As a matter of fact, I think it will be a welcome change for many. The bottom line? I think Comscore's data collection from November 2010 to January 2011 will be much different. Do you agree or disagree?
Hard to say....... too many unknown parameters in my opinion:
What WP7 will really be? Details are scarce to say the least and, obviously, what we know so far it is only what MS decided to disclose.
What will Apple and Android are preparing against WP7? Nobody knows but my guess is that they will not repeat MS, and Palm before MS, mistake and sit there doing nothing.
Where WP7 will be offered? Worldwide or US only like the Zune? Although the US are an easier market because it is controlled by Carriers it is not among the most advanced ones; honestly we are quite behind.
As I said too many factors...... making a guess right now is like to go to Las Vegas and bet on the red or the black.
Well, from what I've seen of WP7 so far my next phone will be an android phone.
If I wanted a totally locked down, closed ecosystem phone I would buy an iphone.
I want openness and customization. I want WM 6.5.x.
This change in direction makes me very sad. I have used Windows Mobile (CE) since I got my first device in 1995. WinCE 1.0. Microsoft has thrown all of that away with WP7.
None of my software I have used for years will work. Heck, I won't even be able to install software unless Microsoft approves it. So what incentive do I have to stay with the platform? I use all of Google's online services, not Microsoft's. If I have to start from scratch why not start where my online services work best?
I know this is a needed change to make Windows Mobile relevant again but why do you have to totally close the system? Lock everything down?
I will admit it does all look very nice and will probably work well. But unless some things change (which they still might, we don't know a lot yet) I will not buy a WP7 device.
My only hope now is that Google will eventually sell a north american 3G nexus one.
I tend to agree with Jason Lee. Microsoft has locked this down too tight. We just don't know how the end product will perform, either. I think for Microsoft to win they needed to come up with the best of both worlds solution.
Why couldn't they have held manufacturers to strict hardware and UI requirements, offer up a quality marketplace, but yet still allow end users the ability to install or customize whatever apps they wanted? This would keep the market from fragmenting, which was an issue previously, while still allowing users to the freedom and flexibility to use their phone as they want. The argument about the iphone being locked and successful is not a good one, when you consider that there are 100,000+ applications available on that platform today AND the iPhone is now entrenched in the market.
I ask, once again, what is WP7S offering besides a different (still tbd if better) UI and Xbox integration? What is the "hook" to get folks to move from their current choice to this platform. Folks using Android probably won't change if they feel the device is too locked down. People using Apple won't change if they don't have access to the same variety and quality of applications.
Both the iPhone and Android provide a superior web browsing experience to anything we've seen from Microsoft to date. Will WPS7 change this?
Well I have had a Motorola Droid through Verizon for about two months and I hate to say it but I just might be done with WinMo. We'll see
I'm curious to hear what WinMo would have to offer to win you back. I think that with Microsoft's complacency in the mobile area, many of us are taking a wait and see approach to the new OS, but it would be interesting to hear what other users think MS needs to deliver in order to compete in this market space again.
Microsoft would have to package a lot of free functionality that would cost money on other devices. Since they're calling this a consumer appliance, let's look at what consumers would consider as added value by choosing what is now the "off brand" (because Microsoft has let its product become the beggar at the table):
*Free navigation software with voice nav (which would annoy carriers who want to sell their $2.99 a day or $10 a month services). I think you can already get this with Android
*Google and Yahoo mail apps and a much better Facebook app
*Chat software that handles Google, Yahoo, AIM, and FB as well as MS.
*A browser that can do Flash web sites, including sites like Justin.tv and Ustream, as well as things like CoverItLive, not just YouTube
*An app for PC and Macs that lets you type on the screen of your PC or Mac when you are plugged in via USB, so you can answer text messages, or more easily enter logins and passwords.
*Fully functional weather app with radar and GPS ranging (but with remote location override)
--This might be accomplished by unifying all the Bing apps that can be map based into one, all accessible on the "Map", without separate directions, traffic, movies, gas prices, etc.
*Travel software so people can check flights or keep other travel info like hotels and confirmations in one place.
*Shopping software with UPC scanner that works with 1D, 2D and other scanner codes
*It would be nice if it came out of the gate with a working Pandora app, but at least make sure one is available for all of its phones
*Built in "Flashlight" app.
*Spec all camera phones to have a flash
Microsoft has a history of being extremely stingy with built in functionality. Maybe that has something to do with anti-monopoly issues, but since their market share isn't dominant, I can't see how that is anything but an excuse. Their "App Store" also has to be considered an integral part of marketing the platform, not primarily an optimized money making site for Microsoft. That means, taking a cut on paid apps, but allowing everyone to get apps on there for free if they're offered for free, assuming they're otherwise vetted. That vetting process means MS subsidizes testing of free apps as part of its marketing expense. Free apps sell phones. Cheap $1 apps sell phones. Those should be encouraged.
If they don't want to do these things, people will go with the "more established" (by the time WM7 comes out, Android will be considered much more established) platforms that give them the best bang for their buck. Also consider the situation of the iPhone being available on more carriers, so there will be competition where there is none now.
Locking down the system and making all your current customer's investments in programs is going to kill WinMo. Microsoft is too used to bullying people into buying new software when they want to by withdrawing the established versions (their OS' and Office products). Every now and then they get away with it, because most businesses have so much invested in Windows systems, but cell phone users can switch anytime they like. Why don't I have an Android system? Not enough Apps, and I have too much invested in my current suite of Apps. Add to that decent Outlook sync and I have a reason to stay. The iPhone is hopeless from the syc perspective and I don't want to ditch my Apps for Apple-approved and Apple-removable ones.
MS is really going to see their customer base migrate in droves over this. And does anyone REALLY think a locked-down MS OS will be competative? Maybe, if the competition stays still and doesn't offer multitasking and high resolution screens. Anyone expect Apple and Google to give up on product development?
And WinMo7 better be TOTALLY stable, no more memory leaks and locked screens or they will be at a disadvantage to their competetitors.
A locked down OS makes MS just an undesirable commodity in a comoditized market. Basic economics tells you all the rest you need to know.
I can see why the folks are turning to Android now. It's the same sort of reasons that I went with the HD2. Android is an open and extensible system with third-party apps appearing. The phones are high-end functional too. I'm seriously looking at the Android OS as an option in case WP7 really doesn't do it for me.
The more I read about WP7, though, the more I suspect that it will turn things around for MS.
HTC HD2 US (unlocked) + 16GB micro SDHC (in holding)
HTC Evo + 16GB micro SDHC (in use)