[surur]

This is how it started against Palm. Give it a few years. Mobile phones have a very high turn-over rate.

Surur

[surur]

This is how it started against Palm. Give it a few years. Mobile phones have a very high turn-over rate.

Surur

[twalk]

Originally Posted by Surur

This is how it started against Palm. Give it a few years. Mobile phones have a very high turn-over rate.

Surur

At the most, there were about 6M PalmOS devices sold per year. Nokia has nearly 5 times that rate with Series 60+ alone.

Nokia and most of the other cell manufactuers have smart management that knows their market intimately. P1 has always had poor management and even worse marketing.

Nokia, et. al., believe in pumping out lots of new and innovative products. P1 thinks that taking a year off shouldn't hurt them.


This isn't the same situation at all.

Todd

[surur]

Instead of admitting the competition is better you are merely saying "I could have beat you, but I wasn't really trying". Very school-child like.

As I said earlier, cellphones have a high turnover, and there is very little customer loyalty. This means unless the companies can develop a stickiness across models e.g. collections of paid software that will only run on their platform, it doesn't really matter how large your installed base is. You are fighting the same battle every year, over and over again, while the competition slowly catches up.

Surur

[twalk]

Originally Posted by Surur

Instead of admitting the competition is better you are merely saying "I could have beat you, but I wasn't really trying". Very school-child like.

What?!? You're calling me "school-child like"?

You basically gave an unsubstantiated allegation that MS would stomp everyone in a few years. I listed some facts about why it won't be that easy. And then you call me names because I don't agree with you.

Originally Posted by Surur

As I said earlier, cellphones have a high turnover, and there is very little customer loyalty. This means unless the companies can develop a stickiness across models e.g. collections of paid software that will only run on their platform, it doesn't really matter how large your installed base is. You are fighting the same battle every year, over and over again, while the competition slowly catches up.

Surur

Let me point out something. IMO PalmOne has (and has had) the worst management and marketing of all of the mobile device makers, hands down.

It's taken a loooong time for MS, et al, to move ahead of them in sales by a small amount.

Now if MS has that much trouble against inept P1, what makes you think it will be a walk in the park against someone like Nokia?

P1 is a little pipsqueak of a company. Nokia is a $33B+ a year juggernaut.

[surur]

I'm sorry you think school-child like is a terrible name. I just think it best describes your position.

Now I wonder what you think Palm could have done to prevail against MS. If it producing a multi-tasking, expandable, multimedia OS,with a proper file system, then basically they would have become a pocketpc to beat a pocketpc. The fight used to be between simplicity and battery life vs complexity and power. In the end it seems to be developing into who has the best mini-computer. Of course MS started from that point, hence pocketpc. Its the whole Palm community who have come over to the "dark side", even without knowing it.

Now the fight against symbian is a different fight, but in the end its for the hearts and minds of consumers, and Nokia already has a reputation for boring phones. MS is also not known for being bad at partnering and marketing.

I'm not saying Nokia is dying tomorrow. Im saying in 5 years there will be parity in market share between MS and Symbian. Do you think this is impossible? People used to say the same thing about Palm and Pocketpc.

Surur

[mcmuddle]

The data raises a question with me. The 'pie' is not finite.New customers join the equation. Existing customers upgrade from choice or necessity. Some users hop the fence to another manufacturer.
Question being, what is the longevity of ownership/usability? Do loyal users of one type device purchase three upgrades while the loyal user of another maintains the same device?
What is an average length of ownership before replacement becomes necessary?
Just wonderin'. The one set of numbers doesn't seem to relay the Big Picture.