Once the iPodders start buying iPhones, they WON'T be in the market for annual upgrades to new iPods.
Why not? I generally buy one PPC per year and one phone per year. Combined, they are about the same price as this.
Quote:
Originally Posted by barky81
I would assume the v2 iPhone will show significant storage increase.
Agreed again, but at 8gb, it's enough storage for many people. I do know some who carry around 60gb of music but I know a lot more who carry only 4gb. I have a 2gb card in my PPC and it carries a lot of stuff! 8gb would be a huge leap for me.
Quote:
Originally Posted by barky81
But if Apple thinks people will swap out $600 phones more often than every two years (contracts are contracts), they are about to find out phones are different.
I strongly disagree with this. A lot of people swap phone/PDA combos often, even at the expensive prices.
Quote:
Originally Posted by barky81
In fact, even though my Cingular 8125 does EVERYTHING the iPhone does, I recently bought a Zune...
I have a PPC6700 which does pretty much everything I want it to do too. I agree with you there. My problem with the PPC WM5 platform is that it's still not easy to do a lot of this stuff. It works, yes. But it's not always simple. That's one place where I hope Apple will leap ahead.
barky81, I promise I was not picking on your post. You just happened to hit on a number of items that I've wanted to comment on.
I'm not an "Apple Fanboy." The only Apple product I've ever owned is Newtons. You could, however, call me a "Newton Fanboy."
As I have said to someone else...you are comparing niche to mass market items. The "early adopter gadget freak" market is a niche market. You say people will be happy to shell out $600 a year on an upgraded iPhone when Apple's success has been based on getting them to shell out $100 to $300 on a new iPod while they flash their $99 RAZRs for 2 years...
Re: 2gig/4gig/8gig as "storage". The reason so many iPods are half-full is that iTunes costs a LOT! A thousand tracks is $1,000! Big investment....
With a subscription model, $15/month is UNLIMITED. I filled up my 30gig Zune in about 4 hours the first night I got it....if I play with it all year, and swap out hundreds of tracks every month...the total annual investment is $180...heck, throw in the $250 for the device, and it's still less than HALF.
This scenario does NOT bode well for Apple's current model...Oh and final storage observation is that you omitted VIDEO in your sizing requirements.
In summary, the Zune Subscription model is really going to disrupt Apple's current strategy. I can only assume that the iPhone is targeted to combat that (over time perhaps--you know, strategic roadmap, etc.) by (1) first selling as phone; (2) then converting to subscription iTunes; (3) then upselling the phones with significant storage increases...say that takes 2 years from June...what then?
Maybe Microsoft's biggest problem is it's (pardon the secret pun to come) own size. If it were nimble enough, they could basically glue an Cingular 8125 to the back of the Zune (throw in a little integration) and CRUSH Apple...
Will they? Don't know.
Could they? Absolutely.
After all, the Zune is $249, and the 8125 is $99 (Edit: WRONG, it's $149) with a 2-year contract, so the comparable total is $348 ($398). (And that gives you access to the Zune subscription service.) Heck, they could weld the Zune to the 8525 (3G!) for $648 (Edit: WRONG, it's $598) total...
Perhaps that part of why Apple partnered with Cingular/ATT...
Now, if only Microsoft would just BUY Sprint and accelerate its WiMax rollout, throw down it's own "zPhone" ("answer zee phone") and drive that splintery old stake home once and for all...that would be a good day.
Ahem, first because there is a difference between niche and mass markets...PPCs are niche, iPods are mass market...
In the context of this discussion I don't see the difference. Your comparing the iPod to you PPC, but you should be comparing the iPhone to the PPC. The iPhone is going to be used by people while they are on the go with their phone. The iPod is going to be used by people with larger libraries/needs for times when they don't need to be tied to their phone.
Quote:
Originally Posted by barky81
Unless Apple gives away multi-device iTunes subscriptions, how could the average user justify buying music for 2 devices?
I could be wrong, but I thought Apple already allowed up to 4 devices to use the same library/downloaded tunes. Can someone correct me if I'm wrong on this? [EDIT] I just checked the online FAQ at Apple. It looks like you can share your library with up to 5 computers and each computer can have multiple iPods connected to it with no mention of a limit there. I don't see an additional financial burden from owning two separate iPod devices, at least as far as music purchases are concerned. [EDIT]
I'm not one that's drooling over the iPhone, I do think that this device can be a nice tool to push MS and it's OEM's to recognize an under served market however. MS has been too busy trying to segment the market to realize that consumers would love an all-in one phone/camera/media player/portable game machine with lots of storage space in a simple easy to use package.
Instead of leveraging PPC and enhancing the OS and included media player enough to fit this niche they have been busy dumbing it down (Smartphone edition) or eliminating functionality (Portable Media Centers).
See, you make my point. The iPhone is a consumer only device. It will not fit into ANY corporate environment. Most if not all $600 phones to date sell into that market.
If it is your position that the consumer market has been crying out for a good $600 phone, I think you are alone in that belief. That is a niche market.
Re: 4 devices using the same library, again you make my point...I did not say use the same library, I said multi-device SUBSCRIPTION--something they don't offer anyone yet.
Again, I don't see ANYTHING that the iPhone will do that the Cingular 8125 ($99 on a 2 year contract EDIT--should be $149) doesn't ALREADY do. (Except sync with iTunes; and to replace that, I could sign up today with Yahoo Unlimited to Go for almost 2 YEARS (<=EDITED) at the cost of the iPhone).
As I have said to someone else...you are comparing niche to mass market items. The "early adopter gadget freak" market is a niche market. You say people will be happy to shell out $600 a year on an upgraded iPhone when Apple's success has been based on getting them to shell out $100 to $300 on a new iPod while they flash their $99 RAZRs for 2 years...
I think you have this backwards. We aren't suggesting people will upgrade their iPhone annually. However, many of the people purchasing an iPhone, either A) already own an iPod, or B) may decide to purchase an iPod for additional storage after owning the iPhone. Much like you did with the Zune.
Quote:
Originally Posted by barky81
Re: 2gig/4gig/8gig as "storage". The reason so many iPods are half-full is that iTunes costs a LOT! A thousand tracks is $1,000! Big investment....
I doubt many, if any have filled their iPod fully with iTunes music. Most have large CD collections they have ripped and added to their device. Others have simply stolen the music from Napster, Kazza, Bittorrent, etc, but that's a different discussion.
Quote:
Originally Posted by barky81
With a subscription model, $15/month is UNLIMITED. I filled up my 30gig Zune in about 4 hours the first night I got it....if I play with it all year, and swap out hundreds of tracks every month...the total annual investment is $180...heck, throw in the $250 for the device, and it's still less than HALF.
I agree. The question is - has Zune's DRM model fixed the issues many of us experienced with MS Plays For Sure DRM? For me it wasn't worth the hassle of constantly having to re-download "subscribed" music just to listen to it on the go.
Quote:
Originally Posted by barky81
This scenario does NOT bode well for Apple's current model...Oh and final storage observation is that you omitted VIDEO in your sizing requirements.
Sorry, can't agree with this statement. You are underestimating the loyalty of Apple's user base. People who buy the iPhone will use it to complement their iPod, not replace it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by barky81
In summary, the Zune Subscription model is really going to disrupt Apple's current strategy.
You mean the way Plays for Sure did? We had multiple music stores and multiple devices to chose from yet, Apple still dominates the market, despite the fact that Rhapsody, Yahoo, Napster, etc all have been offering subscriptions for over a year now. Reports are that Zune is not selling well, and it is still a product in search of a market.
Your idea about marketing to the teen crowd is a very good one. However, iPods are still cool - and in teen's eyes, all the positives you mention aren't going to convince a teen to try a Zune instead of the iPod that all the cool kids already have. As a father of a teenager, I can assure you that price doesn't matter to teenagers that own these devices and features are secondary to having the "cool" device. MS would have to give away hundreds of thousands of Zunes to high schoolers in NY and LA to start the kind of buzz necessary to attract this crowd. Pretty big indictment on our society, isn't it?
If it is your position that the consumer market has been crying out for a good $600 phone, I think you are alone in that belief. That is a niche market.
It's not my position that the market has been crying out for one, just that if created and functional enough it would be popular. The iPhone will prove my point. You seem to be arguing the same thing when you indicate you think it will ruin Apple's margins.
Quote:
Originally Posted by barky81
Re: 4 devices using the same library, again you make my point...I did not say use the same library, I said multi-device SUBSCRIPTION--something they don't offer anyone yet.
Actually I edited my post - there doesn't appear to be a limit to the number of device that can use music downloaded from iTunes. If you truly mean subscription, that that's a superfluous argument since they have shown no inclination to offer (or need) subscriptions.
Quote:
Originally Posted by barky81
Again, I don't see ANYTHING that the iPhone will do that the Cingular 8125 ($99 on a 2 year contract EDIT--should be $149) doesn't ALREADY do. (Except sync with iTunes; and to replace that, I could sign up today with Yahoo Unlimited to Go for almost 2 YEARS (<=EDITED) at the cost of the iPhone).
Except syncing the 8125 to Yahoo Unlimited is an exercise in frustration that will lead you to either smash your phone or you PC to bits when you have to download several GB's of song for the 7th time because Plays For Sure doesn't can't seem to keep track of the fact that you have an active subscription. Furthermore, let me know when you get 8 GBS of songs/video onto your 8125, as far as I know it's not possible today. Finally, the music player interface on the 8125 cannot even come close to comparing the iTunes interface. It's a perfect example of how MS hasn't attempted to capture this market, and how Apple is going to prove that the market is "big enough" to matter.
My Nokia S60-series phone has a problem with crashing that's gotten bloody annoying..
There was an s60 firmware upgrade a month or two ago, Did you try installing it?
I've got 2 s60 phones, and I think they are great. Funny thing is, I've just got an E62, and love having the keyboard. Don't like the form factor though, I think I prefer a slide-out keyboard. But the price was right.
So now I doubt I'll buy anything that does not have a full qwerty keyboard, which means the iPhone is out.
Plus you just know it'll scratch up like the iPod!!
No - because the phone won't let me apparently upgrade anything, short of taking it back to the store, sending it off to the nearest Nokia-certified repair shop, then bringing it back. As I said, it's a Nokia 'not-so-smartphone'; which given its age (two years), makes this one look like an interesting alternative, given that my PDA does the rest of the 'smart' functions, so having a device I can watch movies on or flip for a quick web-page check is fine. I don't expect this to replace my Axim.
Wow..... Why so much Negativism? We should be excilted to see something "COOL" and new on the market. I've been getting tired of seeing the same old WM5 phone being posted on here over and over again with a different color and different manufacturer, but the same phone with a slide out key board? Can't anyone come up with a different design? I feel like it's the same phone and really nothing else? At first it was neat looking now it's getting annoying.... Always the same phone......
Apple's iPhone? I have one word to say........BRILLIANT!
I have an iPod, I have a Zune, I have 3 PPC's: WM2000, WM2003, WM 2005,
I can't say that I really like subscription music, but I do subscribe? I really like owning my music and I still love iTunes.
I have to say that when I first saw the device I was quite impressed. It looks great, and probably will have a great iTunes experience. I was even tempted ... briefly. I just can't see myself giving up the flexibility and robustness of the Windows Mobile platform for eye candy. Plus I've been an iPod user and I'm no longer interested in the iTunes ecosystem.
I think the jury is out on how usable this will be with no hardware buttons or stylus. Don't get me wrong, I'm a friend of the touch screen, but sometimes I need the precision of the stylus.
Apple is always great at coming out the gate on a high note. As opposed to MS who always seems to accept releasing a lackluster version 1.0 of their products.
The iPhone is an indictment against all of the PPC Phone manufacturers who are satisfied to let MS spoon feed them the user's experience. Its like companies like to let MS labotimize them rather than try and utilize a creative bone and produce a great user's experience.
At least Palm did a little with their treo, but it didn't go nearly far enough. Its always, lets spend some money on the hardware and use MS as an excuse for what the software will use or look like.
There is potential that this may trigger some fierce competition on the two fronts, but its more likely that MS will put more of their focus on the Zune platform to compete with iPhone.
That being said, I'll probably stick with the WM platform. Its served me well so far. But I'll definitely keep my eye on this one.
__________________ AT&T Samsung Jack
Black Zune 80
HTPC: SageTV Media Center
I think it's Jobs' ego which is triggering more hostility than is the iPhone. To be fair, Gates' ego and presumptiousness are more than a match for anything Apple puts in their PR. The device itself has undeniable coolness. I don't think more than a few have contested that, and since coolness is a matter of opinion, not fact, they're free to do so.
This device is being presented as if it were something incredibly new. It's not. Sure, the particulars of packaging and interface are a variation not seen exactly the same in any previous device... but all the functionality and specs are easily found in many, many other devices running WM or even Palm OS. And with what look like a few serious limitations in user choice, data input, and upgradability (battery or memory), the price tag with contract is somewhat hilarious. Still, it'll sell. Apple = marketability. (oh, right, the ROKR.... forgot about that weird little partnership with Motorola)
There was an s60 firmware upgrade a month or two ago, Did you try installing it?
No - because the phone won't let me apparently upgrade anything, short of taking it back to the store, sending it off to the nearest Nokia-certified repair shop, then bringing it back.
The E62 doesn't replace my E830 for 'serious' book reading and movies on-the-go, but it does an admirable job as a 'runabout' version. I can still read books, surf the internet (fantastic browser!), do emai, watch movies, stream radio etc ... sure no wi-fi, but who needs it with decent phone service.
This kind of expands on one of the other threads of this conversation. You and I both have the phones to extend/suppliment our PDAs which are more powerful in many ways. Others will do the same with the iPhone ... some will see it as an enhanced companion to the Nano, others will see it as a cool runabout to suppliment more powerful devices - iPhone and OQO 2 anybody?
There's room in many of our pockets for more than one device ...
Re: Beware the unintended consequence....
Always the same phone...... 
Linear Mode
