Mike Mace: Mobile Apps, RIP

[Janak Parekh]

http://mobileopportunity.blogspot.c...ations-rip.html

"Summary: The business of making native apps for mobile devices is dying, crushed by a fragmented market and restrictive business practices. The problems are so bad that the mobile web, despite its many technical drawbacks, is now a better way to deliver new functionality to mobiles. I think this will drive a rapid rise in mobile web development, largely replacing the mobile app business. This has huge implications for mobile operators, handset companies, developers, and users."

Mike Mace, former CCO for Palm/PalmSource, points out the shrinking of the mobile app industry thanks to platform fragmentation. I'm not sure this is universally true; for instance, the enterprise market within WM is probably a stable and growing one, but I wouldn't be surprised if the consumer market, especially, sees this trend continue. I know I've repeatedly switched platforms, and I can only imagine the average consumer doing so more and more as their purchases are tied to smartphones.

[Janak Parekh]

http://mobileopportunity.blogspot.c...ations-rip.html

"Summary: The business of making native apps for mobile devices is dying, crushed by a fragmented market and restrictive business practices. The problems are so bad that the mobile web, despite its many technical drawbacks, is now a better way to deliver new functionality to mobiles. I think this will drive a rapid rise in mobile web development, largely replacing the mobile app business. This has huge implications for mobile operators, handset companies, developers, and users."

Mike Mace, former CCO for Palm/PalmSource, points out the shrinking of the mobile app industry thanks to platform fragmentation. I'm not sure this is universally true; for instance, the enterprise market within WM is probably a stable and growing one, but I wouldn't be surprised if the consumer market, especially, sees this trend continue. I know I've repeatedly switched platforms, and I can only imagine the average consumer doing so more and more as their purchases are tied to smartphones.

[dommasters]

Great article. Well worth reading to the end and including the comments. What do developers think?

[amitregev]

I remember a similar article about ~two years ago was posted too. Both articles were written by (former I think) Palm team members and I'm always getting the feeling that they are not seeing the full picture properly.

In short (since it is really late around here..) we definitely continue to see a good growth of the market, as a whole "mobile market", but the "rules of the game" are definitely getting more complex.

Releasing new applications for mobile devices is much more complex today since you need to support much more hardware configurations and options. Additional mobile platforms are also making it harder, but with the right direction and plan we are definitely not feeling any decrease in the total activity of the market.

I'm getting the feeling that there is a good reason why such articles are usually posted by Palm people...

The release of the iPhone SDK will only make the mobile market even more interesting and more people will be looking for new ways to do more cool things with their devices

[dommasters]

Originally Posted by amitregev

I remember a similar article about ~two years ago was posted too. Both articles were written by (former I think) Palm team members and I'm always getting the feeling that they are not seeing the full picture properly.

Where do you think we are headed Amit? I note that you are one of the creditors of Microgistix, who went bust with their iPAQChoice scheme because of dwindling sales of WM products. I want to stay with WM. Am I being a Luddite?

***long quote trimmed by mod JD***

[SteveHoward999]

I think it's a fad that will pass quickly :-)

[dommasters]

Originally Posted by SteveHoward999

I think it's a fad that will pass quickly :-)

Designing Web Apps that the end user will love will be much harder than certifying and signing them :cry:

[Sedwo]

The 'PDA' business is still young, and always changing. It's supposed to! The PC world took forever to stabilize. And it too is once again being shaken up. Windows, Mac, Linux,... oooooh is the fragmentation going to kill the industry there too?

Whatever.

This has less to do with mobile devices and more on the design of software. And there is plenty of room for both, native apps and web apps. The applications and industries vary wildly, and it's a big world out there. To limit it to the view point of only a select focus (U.S. telecom, consumer users) is being ignorant.

This same scenario exists on the PC side. And people still make money on so much native software that it's surprising to the web app zealots.

With the web comes new tools and applications. The iTouch relies much more heavily on its native side then its connected side to deliver the user experience.

The politics of hurting developers by installing barriers for people to get their software on their mobile is only going to kill the device manufacturers/platform makers. Apple is feeling this and has chosen to release an SDK to gain support. Otherwise, it's iTouch PDA is just another toy, versus a real tool.

Don't fret native developers. There is plenty more work to be done yet.
And many more markets to exploit.

[dommasters]

Originally Posted by Sedwo

Don't fret native developers. There is plenty more work to be done yet.
And many more markets to exploit.

Ooh I like the sound of that! As a developer, coding is now becoming a bore and/or a chore LOL. By the time I've started to code the same app for several devices, certify, sign etc I've lost all enthusiasm for the original idea and take the dog for a walk instead

[VulcanTourist]

The comments from Mace are either just sour grapes or a sneaky marketing ploy to prime people for a push by Palm into Web-app development.

A visit to an online mobile software site like Handango over an extended period shows a wealth and growing selection of software choices, and slowly rising prices for that software as well. (Personally I suspect that it's the middlemen/speculators like Handango that are artificially driving up the prices, but I can't "prove" it.)

Software for handhelds is not a dying resource, it's merely one in transition, which in truth it ALWAYS has been. Can you actually name me a period when it wasn't?

[dommasters]

Web Apps could evolve though into something better than the current mess. There would be less piracy, less installation issues (LOL), less memory leakage issues, less money to fork out on separate development kits, certification, signing, and once again the little guy could write apps and make some money. If I can write web apps using Visual Studio then I might ...