Will Downloads Kill Physical Media?

[Chris Gohlke]

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/21/t...r=1&oref=slogin

"Why did so many companies dump HD DVD so fast? Intriguingly, one often-cited reason is the approaching era of Internet movie downloads. The logic goes like this: as long as there's a format war, consumers won't buy DVD players of either type. By settling on a single format - it doesn't really matter which one - the movie and electronics industries can at least start milking the remaining years of the DVD's life. In fact, though, the Internet movie download era is more distant than pundits think, for four colossal reasons."

The article is accompanied by a somewhat entertain video. The funny thing is that a lot of the cons the author presented are mitigated by illegal downloads, much like they have been for music. I think legal download will continue to grow and as media companies become more comfortable with the process they will start to remove restrictions (like they have with music) and see more growth. Still, I think we will have physical media for years (and years) to come.

[Chris Gohlke]

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/21/t...r=1&oref=slogin

"Why did so many companies dump HD DVD so fast? Intriguingly, one often-cited reason is the approaching era of Internet movie downloads. The logic goes like this: as long as there's a format war, consumers won't buy DVD players of either type. By settling on a single format - it doesn't really matter which one - the movie and electronics industries can at least start milking the remaining years of the DVD's life. In fact, though, the Internet movie download era is more distant than pundits think, for four colossal reasons."

The article is accompanied by a somewhat entertain video. The funny thing is that a lot of the cons the author presented are mitigated by illegal downloads, much like they have been for music. I think legal download will continue to grow and as media companies become more comfortable with the process they will start to remove restrictions (like they have with music) and see more growth. Still, I think we will have physical media for years (and years) to come.

[Jeff_R]

I agree that physical media will be with us for a long while yet. The so-called HD downloads currently available are nothing more than low-bitrate versions that technically fit the bill due to a resolution target. They are definitely not HD quality. Until near-universal bandwidth is sufficient for real-time viewing of Blu-ray level bitrates, at 1080p (or, by the time bandwidth is there, 3000p or whatever else we've adopted), regardless of network congestion (I don't want my movie to stutter just because it's prime time), physical media will have its place.

And overall, if I were a media company, I wouldn't be too attracted to downloading. As I've said in other threads, the collectors are responsible for a lot of sales, and I own 1300+ DVDs. And, to be frank, many of them I haven't watched. If I was downloading instead of buying physical media, I'd probably only have bought 100-200 of those; I'm a filmmaker, and I like the idea of having a library near to hand. If the library was just a click away, no need to buy.

And, to be honest, there would likely almost never be a reason to buy. Let's put it this way. I bought the Matrix when it came out. Then I bought a Limited Edition that came with posters, film cells, etc. (Nothing like that can come with a digital download, although I suppose there are PDF equivalents, but you'd have to work hard to come up with stuff that wasn't available through Googling.) Then I bought a multi-pack that included the Animatrix. Then there was a 9-disc version (or something like that.) Now I'll buy it on Blu-ray when it finally comes out. Granted, this is an extreme version, but still... five different versions of the Matrix films. Total cost, probably around $200 when all is said and done.

I've watched each film, maybe 3 times for the first and 2 each for the second and third. Digital download rates at $5 per, that's $35. If I'm selling that movie as a distributor, I want to sell the physical media every single time. From the rentals, I haven't even made the money I make off of selling one copy of each movie.