Justin Blanton: "Obviously, the iPod is Dead"

[Jason Dunn]

http://justinblanton.com/archives/2004/09/21/obviously_the_ipod_is_dead/

"So, here’s the deal Apple, if you’d like to keep your competition down and sales of the iPod up, add a GSM or CDMA antenna to the music player and let it ride. I would be the first in line for such a device (shocking, I know) and I imagine that there would be a lot of people behind me. As soon as smartphones start adding 1” and .85” drive bays, it’s not going to take long for end-users to realize that their two or three devices can be made into one, and there is no turning back when that happens. As good as the iPod interface is, and as pretty as the design can get, it’s not going to be able to compete with mass storage on a mobile phone..."

Here's an article that will generate some controversy, although I tend to think it's an obvious conclusion. Convergence is coming (it's always coming though) and in the same way that PDAs without any wireless are on their way out, I tend to think that one-trick units such as the iPod will eventually fade away. Once you get a 5 GB hard drive in your phone, will that be enough? Or do you see single-use devices getting better and better, always keeping ahead of the compromises inherent in multi-function devices?

[Jason Dunn]

http://justinblanton.com/archives/2004/09/21/obviously_the_ipod_is_dead/

"So, here’s the deal Apple, if you’d like to keep your competition down and sales of the iPod up, add a GSM or CDMA antenna to the music player and let it ride. I would be the first in line for such a device (shocking, I know) and I imagine that there would be a lot of people behind me. As soon as smartphones start adding 1” and .85” drive bays, it’s not going to take long for end-users to realize that their two or three devices can be made into one, and there is no turning back when that happens. As good as the iPod interface is, and as pretty as the design can get, it’s not going to be able to compete with mass storage on a mobile phone..."

Here's an article that will generate some controversy, although I tend to think it's an obvious conclusion. Convergence is coming (it's always coming though) and in the same way that PDAs without any wireless are on their way out, I tend to think that one-trick units such as the iPod will eventually fade away. Once you get a 5 GB hard drive in your phone, will that be enough? Or do you see single-use devices getting better and better, always keeping ahead of the compromises inherent in multi-function devices?

[Mojo Jojo]

Interesting question. In the Utopian world, sure if there was a small device that did it all... that would be great. Be first in line as they said.

Yet I been hearing this mantra about single devices for such a long time, frankly I still think I will be hearing about if for a while to come. Technology hasn't caught up yet and in my opinion the biggest failing is the battery.

PDA's got 3-4 hours of constant use? Digital Music players get 4-20 hours? Mobile phones?

Anyways... if you stick them all in one device you compromise the functionality of the other. If I listen to MP3s on my phone for a couple hours will their be enough power to make a phone call?

If you add a larger battery your now compromising size... round and round it goes.

Anyway... my two cents, but until power is removed from the equation single devices will still trump multi-function devices

[Felix Torres]

One size does not fit all.

In *my* ideal world we'd have a variety of options, each optimized to your basic needs.
The current world isn't far off.

Need a player for jogging or working out? get a flash-based player; 1Gb models for $100 are around the corner. ($150, today)
Want something compact that will hold a few hundred CDs worth of music? 1" drive models are getting decent capacities and ever-lower prices.
Want something pocketable that will hold *all* your music? Preferably in lossless or near-lossless format? Soon, real soon...
Want a full-range media player? Meet the PMC...
Want a cell-phone that plays music? Already here.
Want to use a PDA instead? Happened 5 years ago...

Look to the PDA world where there is ample variety; with bluetooth or with wi-fi; with both, with neither...
Camera? ditto.
Size, resolution, speed, take your pick...
Want a PDA with a HD? Stick it in!

I expect we'll see all these permutations and more.
Players combined with cellphones for those that want that, players with wi-fi for home networks or direct d/l's at hotspots, players with color screens and even touch screens...
Even players that play commercial games as well as passive content.
All coming to the electronics shop near you.

What we will *not* see is any single product with more than 20% market share. That is just not going to happen. Digital music playback is a cheap feature to implement and there are simply too many ways in which people listen to music...

Fragmentation, not consolidation, is what's coming...