02-18-2009, 03:36 PM
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Mystic
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 1,887
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In the electronics business, when you fall behind the curve it is very hard (and often impossible) to catch up, to say nothing of getting ahead. PDP tech fell behind LCD 4 years ago and, while they have made great strides in the technical merit of their designs (those Pioneer Kuro elites are gorgeous) their *economic* merit, especially in the profitability area, lags LCD and probably DLP.
In a way, PDPs suffer the same problem that Blu-Ray does; their calling card does not command the real-world cost premium that their supporters think it should. BD producers at least have the option of swallowing their pride and lowering disk prices, which should raise sales enough to offset most of the extra cost of the BD tech. Plasma manufacturers have tried that too, the so-called "race to the bottom" but with Vizio throwing in the towel it is clear that the economics of the technology are just not competitive at the low end. And, of course, Pioneer ditching means the high-end is not all that solid. Not with their supply chain. (Panasonic may be able to make an economic case, though. Their economies of scale should be better.)
This doesn't mean Plasma is going to vanish.
Not any time soon.
But with LG looking to get out of the business it is really going to come down to Panasonic and Samsung. And with no second-tier players supporting it, Plasma is going to lose more market presence before things stabilize.
Short term, I expect that Panasonic will pick up the Kuro tech (and maybe the brand) from Pioneer. They're already partners as Panasonic has been manufacturing panels for Pioneer's lower-end models so, unless Panasonic's own economic woes (which are significant) prevent it, they are the most logical place for the Kuro tech to end up.
After that...
Well, PDPs already have the snob-appeal of niche products so the exit of Vizio will only help steer the product to the premium-pricing home theater niche where it belongs. I wouldn't expect much more price cutting on the high-end models but I expect that Panasonic will start trimming their low-end line and moving away from the 42 inch arena. The real question for the future of PDP isn't really power consumption, though, but rather size. Except for outrageously-priced technology demonstrators, neither Plasma nor LCD have scaled much beyond 60 inches.
In the medium term, say the next 5 years, PDPs need to get bigger. If they can. Going cheap isn't an option so they need to get out of the LCD space now that LCDs are moving to LED backlights, ultra-fast refresh, and dynamic lighting to match or even better the technical merit of PDPs. Add in the Laser-driven front-projectors that are on the horizon, and the home theater crowd won't remain satisfied with 65 inch PDPs for long.
Long term, though, I can't see plasma economics surviving the continuing evolution of LCDs. At this point, I suspect the economics of LCD are so entrenched in the supply chains of the industry that only a truly revolutionary tech (light-guide holography?) will be able to compete directly. The window for OLEDs seems to be closing and none of the other alternatives are likely to be able to *launch* at prices that can compete with LCD any time soon. However, if somebody can actually bring a competing technology to market within the next 5 years they *might* be able to compete with Plasma in the $5K premium arena.
In other words: Plasma's future lies at the high end.
Low volume, high technical merit, high price.
And even that, they'll have to defend.
Not looking pretty.
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Marking the Death of Plasma TVs
Linear Mode
