HD-DVD May Be Dropped by Toshiba

[Jeff_R]

I think eventually, we'll definitely have Video over IP, but we're a ways away from it yet. We don't even have 100% broadband coverage in North America, and next to no one has sufficient residential bandwidth to watch HD in real time. And I'm not talking about the pseudo-HD that's being touted now for XBox Live and iTunes. 10-20% of the video bitrate of Blu-ray will not get the job done; the quality comparisons show that the HD stuff downloaded is roughly equivalent to standard DVD, depending on source. So I think, this round, Blu-ray is the clear winner, and the results will be less than the win for standard DVD, but nowhere near the disaster of SACD or DVD-Audio.

I wouldn't be surprised if the next round is Video over IP. But they'll lose a ton of money on me if they go a "pay per viewing" model. I own 1300+ DVDs and Blu-rays, and some of them I haven't watched. Some are special editions I bought after buying a standard edition (when Matrix is released on Blu-ray, it'll probably be the 4th (!) version of that film that I own!). I pay about $20-$25 on average for a DVD, and if you assume about a $5 charge for watching VOD, there are bloody few movies I'm going to watch 4 or 5 times. It might not be as great a model as they think (or, it might not be a model they want as much as some consumers think they do.) Eventually? Yes, I think we'll download nearly every media format. But we've got a long way to go in terms of bandwidth and storage space before we're there.

[Jeff_R]

I think eventually, we'll definitely have Video over IP, but we're a ways away from it yet. We don't even have 100% broadband coverage in North America, and next to no one has sufficient residential bandwidth to watch HD in real time. And I'm not talking about the pseudo-HD that's being touted now for XBox Live and iTunes. 10-20% of the video bitrate of Blu-ray will not get the job done; the quality comparisons show that the HD stuff downloaded is roughly equivalent to standard DVD, depending on source. So I think, this round, Blu-ray is the clear winner, and the results will be less than the win for standard DVD, but nowhere near the disaster of SACD or DVD-Audio.

I wouldn't be surprised if the next round is Video over IP. But they'll lose a ton of money on me if they go a "pay per viewing" model. I own 1300+ DVDs and Blu-rays, and some of them I haven't watched. Some are special editions I bought after buying a standard edition (when Matrix is released on Blu-ray, it'll probably be the 4th (!) version of that film that I own!). I pay about $20-$25 on average for a DVD, and if you assume about a $5 charge for watching VOD, there are bloody few movies I'm going to watch 4 or 5 times. It might not be as great a model as they think (or, it might not be a model they want as much as some consumers think they do.) Eventually? Yes, I think we'll download nearly every media format. But we've got a long way to go in terms of bandwidth and storage space before we're there.

[Jason Dunn]

Originally Posted by onlydarksets

Why do you think we would see anything supporting HD-DVD? Just curious, since, if it's dead, it's dead, right?

Hundreds of thousands of HD-DVD discs have been sold, and it will be a competitive advantage for any Blu-ray player to be able to player HD-DVD discs. Unlike Betamax and VHS, there's no technical reason why the players can't read both.

[Jason Dunn]

Originally Posted by Marlof Bregonje

...and Video 2000.

Wow. I've never even heard of that one!

[Jason Dunn]

Originally Posted by jeffd

why do you say superior in every way? Blueray easily atleast had the disc space thing nailed down. ^^

Blu-ray had more space, yes. HD-DVD had the better name/brand, cheaper disc manufacturing, better technology for interactive features (it was quick and easy to program for, unlike Blu-ray which required Java programming), the players didn't seem to have the firmware/compatibility problems that Blu-ray had, less expensive players (less complicated to make), the quality was better on first generation discs...take your pick.

Blu-ray had better studio support - that's really the main advantage it had, but in the end, that's the advantage that mattered the most...

[Jason Dunn]

Originally Posted by Chris Gohlke

On the bright side, I'll probably be able to pick up some HD movies dirt cheap in the near future.

Indeed, that's quite true! I'll be watching for them...

[Jason Dunn]

Originally Posted by Jeff_R

I wouldn't be surprised if the next round is Video over IP. But they'll lose a ton of money on me if they go a "pay per viewing" model.

I'm in the same boat as you - I own about 600 DVDs and enjoy having a library of content...I will *not* accept a purely PPV model.

DVDs are going to be around for a lot longer than the studios want them to be...most people I show an HD-DVD to can't even TELL it's HD compared to a regular DVD that's up-scaled properly.

[onlydarksets]

Originally Posted by Jason Dunn

Hundreds of thousands of HD-DVD discs have been sold, and it will be a competitive advantage for any Blu-ray player to be able to player HD-DVD discs. Unlike Betamax and VHS, there's no technical reason why the players can't read both.

I wouldn't count on that. Over 1 BILLION DVDs are sold every year. 500,000 HD-DVDs is statistically insignificant, especially when you are the only game in town.

[Jason Dunn]

Originally Posted by onlydarksets

I wouldn't count on that. Over 1 BILLION DVDs are sold every year. 500,000 HD-DVDs is statistically insignificant, especially when you are the only game in town.

I'm counting on the fact that the DVD player market is brutally cut-throat, and if having dual compatibility means they charge even $25, trust me, they'll do it.