"Doubts have been cast on the success of the Blu-ray format ever since it debuted. Initially, the format appeared to be doomed due to a poor adoption rate, thanks mainly to a host of factors, including the PS3's initial tribulations, popularity of the DVD format, and the steady rise in the popularity of digital downloads."
Blu-ray won the format battle against HD-DVD, but it has yet to win the war for HD-content delivery. The opposition? Digital downloads, for one. Personally, I'm a fan. VUDU's HDX rentals are extremely high quality and their full HD library is the largest anywhere. Other competitors include Apple TV/iTunes, Amazon/TiVo, and Netflix; each with varying pros and cons.
The other opposition? Interestingly enough, standard-def DVD. While it's not true HD content, the output of an upconverting player provides a very satisfying experience, particularly if the movie is good. And consider that many people can't tell the difference between SD and HD on their HDTVs. Basically DVD quality is, in many instances, good enough. While the DVD to Blu-ray quality difference is significant, it's not as big of a leap as VHS to DVD. I remember VHS video artifacts & that interfered with my enjoyment of a movie. Very rarely have seen a DVD issue that is a limitation of the media.
There is room for the improvement, but it won't be the cash cow many were hoping for.
I just got a Sony BluRay player, I was looking for a nice upconverting player and was able to get the Sony 350 for $180 so I went ahead and did it. It is still going to be years before the amount of content available by streaming via HD will equal the amount available on physical media, so I'm happy with the decision. I'm not replacing movies that I have now (except maybe LOTR when it comes out) and won't buy much, but I will rent as much as I can through Netflix.
BluRay will weasle its way into houses as the price drops and people replace their current players. When there is not much of a difference in price, they'll upgrade.
It's funny, I have a PS3, but haven't ever watched a Blu-Ray Movie on it. My TV is "only" 720P, but I'm sure Blu-Ray would look better than DVD, but in truth, I've ripped most by DVD's to my Media Server and use the PS3 to stream to the HDTV. It looks good enough for my eyes. I have to agree that Downloads are going to win the war. Hollywood's typical greed once again gets in the way of their own innovation. Trying to charge double for Blu-Ray is just one more nail in it's eventual coffin.
1- BD will look better than upscaled DVD on many movies but not all. And except for the big sfx-laden blockbusters or travelogues, the difference is going to be incremental, not truly generational. Translation: people are *not* going to replace their existing DVD movies with BD renditions except in rare cases. That right there limits the potential upside for BD back-catalog sales.
2- A major portion of ramp-up DVD sales came from people who found buying a DVD for $12-15 a reasonable alternative to $3-4 rentals. With DVD rentals running as low as $1 in many locations, the spread favors rentals again. Throw in online 720p rentals and BDs potential ceiling lowers a bit more.
3- Finaly, disk pricing itself is higher; DVD took off when players got cheap *and* Warner priced the bulk of their releases under $20, list. The studios rush to BD and current pricing is predicated on the idea of people paying a 50-100% premium for HD. That is *not* a realistic perception, but then Sony's perception of the market has been growing steadily less realistic over the last decade and they still haven't really reacted.
All that said, BD *will* take over disk-based movie distribution.
Guaranteed.
All the studios need do is discontinue new DVD releases.
Of course, since there are precious few BD-playing laptops, zero portable players, and no significant BD-rental business (in $ volume) that day is not imminent. So DVD probably has 3-5 years to go as king of movie distribution...
But as the current trends of lower DVD sales and sluggish BD ramp-up continue, at some point desperation will sink in...
I also bought a Sony Blue-ray player for less than $200 and LOVE it. But you won't see me buying Blue-ray discs for $30-$40. I will also rent through Netflix for now. I didn't want Sony to win this race to begin with. They make good products but they're always:
1) Proprietary, using special Sony-only accessories (Memory Stick)
2) Expensive - then you pay for the privilege.
It's funny, I have a PS3, but haven't ever watched a Blu-Ray Movie on it. My TV is "only" 720P, but I'm sure Blu-Ray would look better than DVD, but in truth, I've ripped most by DVD's to my Media Server and use the PS3 to stream to the HDTV. It looks good enough for my eyes.
Really!? Try watching one of your favorite movies in Blu-ray, though, just for fun. I just got a PS3 a month ago, enabled Blu-ray on my Netflix account (killer way to watch Blu-ray, btw, as it just adds $1/month to your bill), and I'm hooked.
Until there's a more cost-effective digital download solution to Netflix+Blu-ray with comparable DRM, I'm not switching. Also, there are constantly (at least at this time of year) crazy Blu-ray disc deals. I bought a few for under $10 two weeks ago, and I just keep on watching for those kinds of prices before I actually buy any.
Personally, I think we're still a while away from Blu-ray being supplanted by digital downloads.
(I do buy HD TV content on iTunes, FWIW, but only for a few shows that I like and want to stay up to speed on.)
I didn't want Sony to win this race to begin with. They make good products but they're always:
1) Proprietary, using special Sony-only accessories (Memory Stick)
2) Expensive - then you pay for the privilege.
You mean kind of like Apple.
At least some of Sony's products (laptops and maybe some camcorders or digital cameras) work with SD cards, too.
As for whether disc will succumb to digital downloads, probably not in the near future. After all, there are still lots of CD sales despite people being able to easily download digital music for years. Yes, CDs may not be selling as well as they used to, but they aren't close to going away, either.
Yes, CDs may not be selling as well as they used to, but they aren't close to going away, either.
Steve
Yes, but the PTB don't have a desirable (for them) CD replacement anywhere near ready (and the Window to do so has probably long closed) whereas the same backroom dealers have a strong vested interest in making BD "win", hence my suggestion that at a certain point in the next 3 years they will *force* the issue by discontinuing or seriously delay new-content DVD releases.
Remember, that is how they forced the CD transition, by stopping LP production overnight...
My dad got blueray last year. I just saw 2 movies on it recently and only because I knew they were BR movies could I tell a difference. Saw 2 regular DVDs and didn't mind the difference. If my current DVD player breaks, I might get a blueray player, maybe, but no way am I buying BR movies. The price is ridiculious. I'll stick with DVDs for several more years at least.
Will Blu-ray Win the War, Not Just the Battle?
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