C|NET: Flat-panels to Kill Off Rear-Projection TV Sales by 2011

[Jason Dunn]

http://news.com.com/8301-10784_3-9767582-7.html?part=rss&subj=news&tag=2547-1_3-0-5

"Will rear-projection TV sales plunge to near zero within the next 48 months? That's what a new study from IDC Group claims. With ever larger plasma and (especially) LCD flat-panel HDTVs becoming ever more affordable, IDC sees sales of RPTV sets--those utilizing DLP and LCoS microdisplays--dropping to under 30,000 units by 2011. That's a dramatic drop from the peak of 3.51 million sold in 2004 (according to the CEA)."

As the owner of a 72" DLP (rear projection) TV, this news doesn't surprise me - since rear-projection TVs have been on the market, they've represented the greatest combination of value for the dollar if you're looking to go big - yet as LCD and Plasma TVs get bigger and cheaper, the rear-projection advantage gets smaller and smaller.

There's also the issue of moving parts - my local electronics chain is now only offering two year warranties on all rear-projection TVs, killing off their three and four year extended warranties because they were costing them too much money. My Samsung DLP had to have its colour wheel replaced, which was a $1200 part. Rear-projection TVs are going to fade away, but before they do, they still represent a great value for the dollar if you have a big room that needs a big TV. Just be sure to get that extended warranty!

[Jason Dunn]

http://news.com.com/8301-10784_3-9767582-7.html?part=rss&subj=news&tag=2547-1_3-0-5

"Will rear-projection TV sales plunge to near zero within the next 48 months? That's what a new study from IDC Group claims. With ever larger plasma and (especially) LCD flat-panel HDTVs becoming ever more affordable, IDC sees sales of RPTV sets--those utilizing DLP and LCoS microdisplays--dropping to under 30,000 units by 2011. That's a dramatic drop from the peak of 3.51 million sold in 2004 (according to the CEA)."

As the owner of a 72" DLP (rear projection) TV, this news doesn't surprise me - since rear-projection TVs have been on the market, they've represented the greatest combination of value for the dollar if you're looking to go big - yet as LCD and Plasma TVs get bigger and cheaper, the rear-projection advantage gets smaller and smaller.

There's also the issue of moving parts - my local electronics chain is now only offering two year warranties on all rear-projection TVs, killing off their three and four year extended warranties because they were costing them too much money. My Samsung DLP had to have its colour wheel replaced, which was a $1200 part. Rear-projection TVs are going to fade away, but before they do, they still represent a great value for the dollar if you have a big room that needs a big TV. Just be sure to get that extended warranty!

[EscapePod]

One of the main reasons (OK, besides price) I got a DLP was because I was told they don't burn-in the screen during game playing (allegedly, like a Plasma or LCD). I guess there are other times when burn-in is a more likely issue -- eg. when a public service, community, or static news station is on.

Any truth to that?

[Felix Torres]

Originally Posted by EscapePod

One of the main reasons (OK, besides price) I got a DLP was because I was told they don't burn-in the screen during game playing (allegedly, like a Plasma or LCD). I guess there are other times when burn-in is a more likely issue -- eg. when a public service, community, or static news station is on.

Any truth to that?

Plasmas burn-in.
LCDs don't, so you were misled on that front.

Even on Plasmas, burn-in isn't the issue it used to be as most quality sets have minimized it to the point that it is no long-term danger unless you're a regular on a channel with a crawler (CNBC, CNN, etc) or have long sessions on a video game with a HUD. If most of what you do is pure video (movies and TV shows) even PDPs can be safe buys.

Two areas where DLPs shine, though, is sheer size (60" DLPs are downright affordable these days--around $1500 for some name brand 1080p models--and 70"+ can be had for the price of a 52" LCD) and for sports watching, especially hockey. This is because most DLPs, like CRTs, rely on persistence-of-vision effects to "paint" a full-frame image so there is no motion-blur or ghosting that doesn't come from the original source. While most modern LCDs are fast enough to eliminate blurring in the displayed image, it turns out some people see ghosting because of persistence-of-vision effects in their *eyes*. Nzot much a manufacturer can do although some manufacturers are looking into strobbing backlights to try to deal with that issue.

As for the original idea that microdisplay sets could be squeezed out by LCD, I'm a tad skeptical; if microdisplays get squeezed out it is solely because the manufacturers *choose* to let them get squeezed out. The incremental costs in going up in size with rear projectors is relatively small so the manufacturers should be able to come up with much larger projection sets than LCD at a given price point if they choose to do so. Projection lights are getting both brighter and longer-lived, optics are getting more sophisticated, and the market for 70-100" displays is vastly underserved (right now its the domain of expensive front projection systems).

Flat may be sexy but most folks still place their flat panels atop a stand or credenza so the footprint of a flat panel is not significantly smaller, if at all, than that of a modern rear projection set.

Rear projectors in general and DLP in particular still have plenty of life left in them.