Microsoft, Verizon, and "Pink" Being Delayed?

[Jason Dunn]

<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://www.crn.com/software/217300212;jsessionid=BHKBXGJJUIA0AQSNDLPSKHSCJUNN2JVN?pgno=1' target='_blank'>http://www.crn.com/software/2173002...JUNN2JVN?pgno=1</a><br /><br /></div><p><em>"In-house development delays are putting a stealth Microsoft-Verizon smartphone project in danger of collapse, Channelweb.com has learned. Microsoft and Verizon Wireless have reportedly been working on a Microsoft-branded touch-screen smartphone that Verizon could launch on its network as early as next year. The smartphone, code-named Pink, would consist of Microsoft software running on a third-party device, according to sources familiar with the project. However, Microsoft has encountered major setbacks that have affected its schedule for bringing Pink to market, sources said."</em></p><p>I lost count of the number of rumours and points of speculation in this article, but it would seem there's <em>something </em>to this given the sheer number of rumours strung together. The question is, though, is whether this is a Windows Mobile device. What if it's a Danger Sidekick running a bunch of Windows Live software? It's hard to say given how much rampant speculation there is in this article. What's not speculation though is that Windows Mobile 6.5 devices are still not here yet, and Windows Mobile 7 is even further out. Has anyone else noticed that Windows Mobile isn't even mentioned in many of the articles talking about the major players in the mobile space? Microsoft sold north of 15 million licenses world-wide last year, yet somehow they're not considered a serious player in the market.</p>

[Stinger]

Has anyone else noticed that Windows Mobile isn't even mentioned in many of the articles talking about the major players in the mobile space? Microsoft sold north of 15 million licenses world-wide last year, yet somehow they're not considered a serious player in the market.

In an industry selling a billion units a year, 15 million is small-fry. Microsoft's sales are on the rise but it's going to be a long time until they reach even 10% marketshare of the global cell phone market.

[Jason Dunn]

In an industry selling a billion units a year, 15 million is small-fry.

That's more than Apple sold in the same timeframe I think, isn't it? Yet no one considers them "small fry". There's a weird double-standard going on...

[soho_1]

You wonder about double standards?

Follow the money. If Microsoft generates $10 per license sold, it had a business in Windows Mobile worth $180 million per year.

Apple's average sales price is about $600 per iPhone. Excluding the iPod touch which generates about $250 per unit and which sold over 13 million so far, Apple generates over $10 billion in sales from the iPhone and it grew at between 80% and 600% in the last three quarters.

If you include the iPod touch, the platform has the largest *unfragmented* installed base at 37 million devices.

Keep in mind that relative to Windows Mobile the attach rate of data plans, applications and browsing consumption blow up the value of the iPhone for third parties like operators, developers and advertisers sky high.

Operators see data ARPU uplift of $50/mo per iPhone. With exclusivity agreements they also see net present value per user in the thousands of dollars.
Developers see $15 or so of application revenue per iPhone.

[Stinger]

That's more than Apple sold in the same timeframe I think, isn't it? Yet no one considers them "small fry". There's a weird double-standard going on...

Apple are selling circa 4 million a quarter and I absolutely agree. Apple and Google both have a ridiculous amount of hype behind them.

[efjay]

Wasnt this device categorically denied by MS when it last hit the news?

[Jason Dunn]

Wasnt this device categorically denied by MS when it last hit the news?

The denials that I read weren't exactly specific...which is why I was speculating it might not be a Windows Mobile project at all.

[Jason Dunn]

Follow the money. If Microsoft generates $10 per license sold, it had a business in Windows Mobile worth $180 million per year...Apple generates over $10 billion in sales from the iPhone and it grew at between 80% and 600% in the last three quarters.

Indeed, making the hardware means Apple makes some SERIOUS coin. No doubt about that. But Google is making effectively ZERO dollars off Android and they still get mentioned in all the articles.

Operators see data ARPU uplift of $50/mo per iPhone. With exclusivity agreements they also see net present value per user in the thousands of dollars.

The ARPU lift would be there for any smartphone with a data plan, which is basically all of them, no? So I don't think there's anything special here as far as the iPhone is concerned. I'm afraid I don't know what "net present value per user" is.

Developers see $15 or so of application revenue per iPhone.

Got a source for that? Seems like that's a number that would get thrown out of you took all the money make thus far from app sales and divided it by the number of developers with apps in the app store...which is nonsense because a small minority of developers are making the lions share of profit.

[oldan]

That's more than Apple sold in the same timeframe I think, isn't it? Yet no one considers them "small fry". There's a weird double-standard going on...

Here's how I see the double standard. Microsoft did a bang up job stealing the hand held PDA business from Palm and morphing it over time into a smartphone in the LAST CENTURY. However, these days, when stock market success is counted in daily wins and losses rather than long term investing, Windows Mobile falls in the camp of "what have you done for me lately?"

As a Windows Mobile user who jumped on board from Palm in 1997, I am disappointed that I have waited so long for version 6.5. To run it, I have to download what is essentially pirated code, build and flash my own ROM to my Touch Diamond.

I recognize it may be difficult for a big company to change course, but c'mon! It's been *years* of the same ol' same ol' code on Windows Mobile. If Microsoft can't show some agility and rapid development schedules, perhaps they need to go the way of the old Palm Pilot and make way for the new smartphone paradigm.

- Oldan

[Jason Dunn]

I recognize it may be difficult for a big company to change course, but c'mon! It's been *years* of the same ol' same ol' code on Windows Mobile.

Yeah, I know what you mean. I think it really comes down to leadership - the Windows Mobile group hasn't had any good leadership for years. I think that's changing now, but is it in time to right the ship? Guess we'll see...

[efjay]

Yeah, I know what you mean. I think it really comes down to leadership - the Windows Mobile group hasn't had any good leadership for years. I think that's changing now, but is it in time to right the ship? Guess we'll see...

Here's a question a bit off topic, if MS doesnt right the ship, would people be happy with a mobile world dominated by apple and google where corporate decides what is good for you? They have both demonstrated that they are ultimately in control of what you can do with their devices (especially apple) and for most people who are content with the "shiny" factor of these phones this doesnt matter but for a mobile power user is that acceptable? Because it seems as though nothing MS will ever do will bring them any success in the mobile world and they are slowly being herded towards the back of the line in the mobile world as consumers of todays generation are conditioned to believe that WM is not good for anything.

[Jason Dunn]

Here's a question a bit off topic, if MS doesnt right the ship, would people be happy with a mobile world dominated by apple and google where corporate decides what is good for you?

I know I sure don't. I don't want my choice of mobile being a matter of black or white and a choice of storage capacity. That's not my idea of choice.

[Fritzly]

Indeed, making the hardware means Apple makes some SERIOUS coin. No doubt about that. But Google is making effectively ZERO dollars off Android and they still get mentioned in all the articles.

Keep in mind that Android enjoy the novelty effect; when MS began to offer WM they had a lot of exposure; besides few exceptions, years after years they repackaged the same warmed up soup trying to portrait it as a breakthrough.
I remember when they were going to deliver with WM 6 what now seems it might arrive with WM 7...and when they were promisng it with WM 6 it was already overdue.

I rememebr people in line out of stores to buy Windows 95. Why? Because it was a breakthrough, a really innovative product.

I am afraid that if Bill Gates and a bunch of other "out of the box", not big business obsessed, thinkers did not come and replace the actual management MS will get more and more in trouble.