Is the End of the Traditional Desktop Near?

[Hooch Tan]

<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://news.cnet.com/8301-17938_105-10228435-1.html?tag=newsLeadStoriesArea.1' target='_blank'>http://news.cnet.com/8301-17938_105...adStoriesArea.1</a><br /><br /></div><p><em>"Netbooks are forecast to comprise one-fifth of the 133 million notebooks to be shipped in 2009, and the more than 3.5 million all-in-one desktops shipped in 2008 is expected to double by 2010, according to market research firm DisplaySearch. While all-in-ones are still a small part of the desktop market, it's one of the only desktop form factors that's actually growing."</em></p><p><img src="http://images.thoughtsmedia.com/resizer/thumbs/size/600/dht/auto/1241115645.usr20447.jpg" style="border: 0px solid #d2d2bb;" /></p><p>Say it ain't so!&nbsp; While I am certain that the desktop PC will eventually meet its demise, I think we're still quite a few years away from not being able to find it in stores.&nbsp; Notebooks, netbooks, all-in-ones all exist based on the premise of a computer being something like an appliance, at least when it comes to hardware.&nbsp; It's only been in the past few years that this has really made sense with processor speeds leveling off, and as of this year, low cost, decently performing graphics are available.&nbsp; But desktop PCs still have the edge in expandability, and more importantly, value.&nbsp; For the same cost of a 10" netbook, a 15.4" laptop or a 19" all-in-one, you can get a much more powerful desktop PC and it is much easier to add another hard drive, multiple tv tuner cards or even if you want to leverage what stuff you already have like an LCD monitor or that keyboard you really like, the price goes down even more.&nbsp; Eventually, things will probably become much more of a server/client setup, even for home or the cloud, but until then, those careful to watch their pennies may be ignoring a really viable option if you don't consder a desktop PC.</p>

[ptyork]

It won't be long before the economic and environmental stupidity of all-in-ones is realized by enough people that they'll never make it beyond niche. Buying a nice 24 inch LCD that should last 10 years built into a computer/video card/etc. that is obsolete in 2 is utter nonsense. Same goes for luggables (those dumb 18+ inch "laptops"). Real laptops/netbooks/tablets/whatever will be around for the long term to serve the purpose they were intended to serve (mobile computing). Desktops will still be around for quite some time to come (though undoubtedly the form factor will continue to shrink as component sizes and needs shrink). It won't be laptops that do them in, it'll be whatever new computing paradigm comes to replace our 30+ year-old mouse/window paradigm at which desktop PC's are so adept.

[Felix Torres]

Desktops aren't going away any time soon; even mainframes are still around today. Just because new form factors appear and the classic "three-piece-suit" may be less prevalent doesn't mean its going away. As pointed out, modularized systems make too much economic sense.
All we're seeing is the way overdue realization that computing is not only for offices (corporate or home) and that there is room for bedroom computers, kitchen computers, pocket computers, classroom computers... And that each application can benefit from an optimized form factor.
There is room for all: tablets, laptops, desktops, all-in-ones, servers, and Home theater boxes. The more the merrier. Nothing like a little Darwinism to improve the breed.
Personally, I think the best "all-in-one" options are the itty-bitty Net-tops that mount on a standard monitor's rear using the vesa screw points. Add a wireless keyboard and mouse and you have all the benefits of the all-in-one's and none of the disadvantages. Often for less, too.

[Hooch Tan]

All we're seeing is the way overdue realization that computing is not only for offices (corporate or home) and that there is room for bedroom computers, kitchen computers, pocket computers, classroom computers... And that each application can benefit from an optimized form factor.

I agree with you on this, that computing devices are becoming much more specialized and branching out from the "computer room." But with that comes the need to access your data from whatever device you're using, which is why I think we'll eventually see a migration back to a server/client model. We're already seeing hints of this with cloud computing, where many of the more basic functions of computing can be done through a web browser. We're seeing other bits of it through servers like Windows Home Server, Media Center, etc. The only part that an end-point will need is a terminal like program, probably the web browser and a interface that is intelligent enough to alter itself to the current device.

[Felix Torres]

But with that comes the need to access your data from whatever device you're using, which is why I think we'll eventually see a migration back to a server/client model.

On a personal basis, I think...
The evolution of computing has gone steadily downward; from one computer per corporation (mainframes), to multiple linked computers per corporation (minicomputers) to one computer per employee(PCs/workstations) to multiple-linked computers per employee (Lans) to multiple computers per person (work, home, PDAs, smartphones, ereaders, etc) to multiple linked computers per person (personal LANs).
Home servers are becoming common, no?
Serving productivity data out from home systems is becoming common (and relatively easy) and it looks like Win7 is going to make streaming media data to non-PC computers (ereaders, PMPs, cellphones) routine.
In other words, while the IT folks are trying to bring back mainframes through cloud computing, what I see is personal clouds, not a return to centralized computing.
Its a matter of control; I don't think there are many out there who will be comfortable with turning over their personal data to some faceless corporate datacenter. Me, I can see value in online hosting of a *copy* of my data but relying solely on some hosted cloud service? No way.
Local storage and local backup will remain primary.
Another reason why traditional desktops won't go away any time soon.

[Hooch Tan]

Its a matter of control; I don't think there are many out there who will be comfortable with turning over their personal data to some faceless corporate datacenter. Me, I can see value in online hosting of a *copy* of my data but relying solely on some hosted cloud service? No way.
Local storage and local backup will remain primary.
Another reason why traditional desktops won't go away any time soon.

I'm thinking along similar lines. One of the best models of software from a design standpoint for me is MS Exchange. Centralized (or even cloud for some people) storage with local caches. I've never taken net connectivity as a given. And yes, people really should *own* their data. That's probably why I favor Gregarius over Google Reader, SyncPlaces (set to my own server) vs. Foxmarks or Delicious and so on. Sadly, I think that most "regular" people don't care much about owning their data, at least until they get shut out. Also, options for archiving all your data aside from the traditional backup seem to be limited. I'd love to see a service that would let you archive all your stuff (Email, bookmarks, Facebook, LinkedIn, RSS Feeds, etc) in an open format at home. Know of any?