Macworld 2009: Our Predictions

[Vincent Ferrari]

<p><img src="http://images.thoughtsmedia.com/resizer/thumbs/size/600/at/auto/1231213058.usr18053.jpg" style="border: 1px solid #d2d2bb;" /></p><p>With the opening bells of Macworld 2009 only a few mere hours away, the staff and I wanted to share our predictions for MacWorld 2009, so without further ado, here you have them! <MORE /></p><p><em>"Given that Steve Jobs won't be at MacWorld, I don't see any major announcements. I think we'll see a refresh of the Mac Mini and the iMac. If I had to make a wild prediction, I'd say that Jason Calacanis's prediction from last year is correct and Apple is releasing an HDTV with integrated AppleTV like functionality, but I don't see that being announced without Jobs there."</em> -<strong>Joe Johaneman, Contributing Editor</strong></p><p><em>"I'm hoping something for the Apple TV, Netflix interface would be nice. Also home server type of setup would be great for media. Thats more hope and dream category though I guess :-). Most likely an update for the 17 inch laptop to the new construction, also think will be an update to the mac mini and they will discuss Snow Leopard. My crystal ball gets pretty cloudy after that :-) Oh yea one more thing, more capacity on the iPhone. I would like to say iPhone Nano, like the concept, but again that is the hope dream category."</em> -<strong>Jeff Campbell, Contributing Editor</strong></p><p><em>"Being new to the Apple scene, I'm not sure how reliable my predictions will be, but here's what I think: #1 - There will be some sort of new MacBook to make me drool. There always is. #2 - They will announce new Shuffles. All of the other iPods have new shiny models, except those, so it's time. #3 - An Apple netbook of some sort would be nice to see, and would be quite the surprise (for me anyway). #4 - In an unexpected move, they will announce the 'iBuds Nano'. Earbuds the size of pinheads that stick directly into your earlobes. (Intended for use with the long rumored iPhone Nano). #5 - Steve Jobs WILL appear at MacWorld, somewhere, somehow. (if he doesn't, many fanboy heads will explode later this week) #6 - The Beatles catalog will finally be added to the iTunes store. (okay, okay, I'll stop now)."</em> -<strong>Michael Barrett, Contributing Editor</strong></p><p><em>"I think we're going to see a new 17" MacBook Pro and updates for the Mac Mini, but aside from that nothing really earth shattering.&nbsp; The possibility of a storage bump on the iPhone seems realistic (which, of course means we'll probably also see a storage bump for the Touch).&nbsp; I'm expecting an update on the AppleTV, but nothing huge; probably just a storage bump.&nbsp; I'm hoping for an update to iLife and iWork, also.&nbsp; iMovie '08 is my favorite video editor for small projects and with a few small tweaks it could easily take care of most of my editing needs that Final Cut Express handles now. Honestly, I'm really with Jeff.&nbsp; Without Steve, I wouldn't expect the earth to move under our feets during the keynote." </em><strong>-Vincent Ferrari, Executive Editor</strong></p><p><strong>Your Turn!</strong></p><p>Okay folks...&nbsp; We've had our say...&nbsp; Now it's your turn.&nbsp; Make your predictions known in the comments section.&nbsp; If it isn't in writing, it was never said!&nbsp; Hit us up so we can discuss afterward! Also, we're not going to try to cover the keynote.&nbsp; The idea of metablogging it doesn't really thrill me, but what you will get from us is a nice helping of post-keynote coverage including our thoughts, the product announcements, etc.&nbsp; We're not there, and most likely neither are you, so why pretend?</p><p>Once the announcements are out there, you aren't going to be able to shut us up!</p>

[Spooof]

I personally hope and think that Apple will improve on the Time Capsule. If you look at the success of Drobo and the potential of Windows Home Server (he best Microsoft Product they make in my opinion) I think that there is room for Apple to provide an elegant solution.

The only problem is that it would cut into Apple TV, Mac Mini and Time Capsule so I would not bet the farm on this. We can always dream.

[ptyork]

Wow. Just wow. I've been underwhelmed at these events before, but wow, this is a whole new level of underwhelm... did I mention wow. Here's hoping that this gave something to someone. Sounds like perhaps Vincent got his new iMovie...

[doogald]

I'm liking the face recognition and geotagging in iPhoto. I've been delaying going through thousands of photos to category tag them by people. Hopefully procrastination paid off this time.

And who can't like the tiered pricing and the elimination of DRM in iTunes?

I have no interest in a 17" MacBook Pro, but I'm digging the new battery technology. Hopefully they can bring that to the other models in the near future (I am about a year away from either a new MacBook or Air.)

As for the lack of excitement otherwise, it's clear from Apple's decision to pull out of MacWorld in the future that they have no reason to schedule new releases of stuff a few weeks after the holiday season is done.

[Jason Dunn]

I'm a software geek so I dug some of the stuff they announced. But I definitely didn't feel the lure of going to buy a Mac like I do after most keynotes. Without the Jobs reality distortion field, it's easier to resist. :D

[ptyork]

I'm liking the face recognition and geotagging in iPhoto. I've been delaying going through thousands of photos to category tag them by people. Hopefully procrastination paid off this time.

Or do it without the $79 upgrade fee using PicasaWeb's Name Tags (also uses face recognition). You also get geotagging and (of course) google maps / streets integration. I like the integration that the new iPhoto offers with FB, but I'm really dubious of how it will sync properly BACK to FB. How will it know that my iPhoto tag "John" really means my FB friend "Johnathan Numbnuts" with FB ID #17891298739. Perhaps they've done this well, though. We'll see.

And who can't like the tiered pricing and the elimination of DRM in iTunes?

Yup. Nice. But I switched to Amazon long ago. If you're 100% Apple, then this will be meaningful. If not, the availability of <= $5 albums using the completely portable MP3 standard make Amazon a better option for many.

I have no interest in a 17" MacBook Pro, but I'm digging the new battery technology. Hopefully they can bring that to the other models in the near future (I am about a year away from either a new MacBook or Air.)

New battery = good. Non-removable = bad. $50 "upgrade" to matte screen = WTF? Goofy ass keyboard = joke. I'm really glad I got my current iteration. The new machining does make the laptop feel more solid (extrapolating from the 15"), but is a step backwards in too many ways for me to want one.

It's not like there was anything "bad" in the announcements (except for the exceedingly lame paid iWork.com). I'm just flabbergasted that they didn't touch the Mini or the AppleTV. Perhaps this will come in a separate "event," but I'm starting to believe that these are being abandoned. I can't wait for some of the radical greenies to get hip to Apple's lack of a sub $3000 computer that DOESN'T include a display and hit back at those ridiculous "we're the greenest ever" commercials. Come on, most of us get new computers every 2 years. Most of us get new monitors for our desktop every 6-10. That's 2 (almost certainly more) extra displays manufactured / landfilled per desktop user every 6+ years. What's currently the most environmentally damaging component on a PC? Guess. This is just incredibly wasteful. For people that require laptops, then sure, this is a necessary evil. But otherwise, it is shameful.

[Spooof]

Overall I am disappointed in the applicability to my situation; however I do like the improvements to the MBP.

As I just upgraded my 15inch I am 2 to 3 years away from a new MBP. Maybe they will offer a repalcement battery with the new technology for my 15inch... I will check into it once I see a pig fly by my office window :)

In addition I do not use iPhoto unless I want to make a photo book or slide show. I can't stand how it won't accept my black and white jpgs from ACR. I have to import color and convert to B&W in iPhoto. If the new version corrects this it might be worth the upgrade.

The rest of the items do not excite me like previous MacWorlds. Yet it is unrealistic that Apple can consitantly blow our socks off. I wonder what CES will hold?

[Spooof]

I completely ignored the removal of DRM. This is something I look forward, but would prefer MP3 at a decent bit rate.

[ptyork]

I'm a software geek so I dug some of the stuff they announced. But I definitely didn't feel the lure of going to buy a Mac like I do after most keynotes. Without the Jobs reality distortion field, it's easier to resist. :D

For me, over an hour of talk/demo about tweaks to iLife software that (mostly) served to a) bring it to parity with free software (e.g., Picasa) or b) bring back features that were removed in their last $79 upgrade (iMovie) acted more like a "repulsor beam" than a "reality distortion field." ;)

In fairness, yes, there were some cool new features, but it was obvious that they were hurting for things to talk about for 90+ minutes...

[Jason Dunn]

I can't stand how it won't accept my black and white jpgs from ACR. I have to import color and convert to B&W in iPhoto.

That's completely insane...a JPEG is a JPEG, how did Apple manage to screw that up? Wow. :confused:

[Jason Dunn]

For me, over an hour of talk/demo...

Well, I read the Engadget summary in about 5 minutes, so it wasn't that painful for me thankfully. :D

[Spooof]

That's completely insane...a JPEG is a JPEG, how did Apple manage to screw that up? Wow. :confused:

Your right it is insane and I have not had time to figure out if there is a work around... other than a quick google search which confirmed that I was not alone. Again I only use iPhoto for photo books so it does not impact me much.

I can't imagine importing my complete photo library into iPhoto. There are some cool features for the average user but not for a Photo Nut like me. One thing is it is non destructive so if you edit in iPhoto there are multiple copies. I am sure there are ways to adjust your workflow to stream line it but I found it unruly compared to LightRoom or Bridge.

[ptyork]

Well, I read the Engadget summary in about 5 minutes, so it wasn't that painful for me thankfully. :D

Yes, I was one of the morons hitting refresh saying "this can't really be it, can it?" over and over again. I even went back multiple times after they said it was over to make sure they didn't throw some kind of one more thing in...

[doogald]

New battery = good. Non-removable = bad.

It's a battery that lasts a lot longer, both in use and in long-term use (i.e., it lasts 1000 refreshes instead of the 300 [I think] that my MacBook battery supports.) I can also count on one hand the number of times that I have removed the battery from my MacBook in two years since I owned it, with a couple of fingers to spare. Once was to replace the hard disk; once was to clean the bottom of the unit. Once was see how to remove it. I think that the whole removable battery thing is overrated. I'd rather have a non-removable that lasts five hours and will go for five years than a removable that lasts three, that's for sure.

Steve Gibson's Security Now podcast last week (http://media.grc.com/sn/sn-177.mp3) had a great piece on some recently patented technology for ultra-capacitors that he thinks could replace consumer electronic batteries with technology that last longer in use, has no degradation over time, and fully recharges in seconds. That's something I'd love to see!

[ptyork]

I think that the whole removable battery thing is overrated. I'd rather have a non-removable that lasts five hours and will go for five years than a removable that lasts three, that's for sure.

How about a removable one that lasts 4+ hours and will go for 5 years--and the option to extend it to 8+ hours or 12+ or 16+ hours? That is really the option. This thing isn't more than 25% larger than it could have been using a removable cartridge. I doubt that it is 10% larger, but hey, I'll give them some benefit of the doubt. The new tech doesn't depend on it being non-removable--only the slightly larger size. I can see making this sacrifice in the MB Air since there really is so little room in that thing. But in this, it seems silly.

Actually, Apple may just be playing to the realities of their users. Many business users need replaceable batteries because they spend so much time in the air, in taxi's, in client meeting rooms, etc. that having 2 or 3 extras is a reality of life. I know it was for me when I was actually a business user. Since Apple will likely never enter the business market again, then it just gives Apple fans something else unique to call "better." :)

Normally I'd look for some kind of greed as the reason for the choice, but here I don't get it. They are missing out on sales of accessories (i.e., extra batteries and external chargers). Perhaps Apple's market for extra batteries is small enough that they make more on $200 battery replacement service 3-5 years down the road. Who knows...

Steve Gibson's Security Now podcast last week (http://media.grc.com/sn/sn-177.mp3) had a great piece on some recently patented technology for ultra-capacitors that he thinks could replace consumer electronic batteries with technology that last longer in use, has no degradation over time, and fully recharges in seconds. That's something I'd love to see!

This is an exciting (if currently vaporous) technology, especially for cars. However, remember, while you might be able to charge a wrist-watch in seconds, but you are still limited by the ability of your outlet to supply power. It takes a number of minutes for a 15 AMP 110 Volt outlet to supply 95 Watt/Hours of energy. At theoretical maximum with 100% transfer efficiency (impossible) it would still take 95 / (15 x 110) = .057 hours = 3.5'ish minutes. With reality thrown in, probably 10 minutes minimum (and that would require a LARGE power block--approximately 750 Watts). Wicked-fast, but not seconds.

Get this, combine it with a better charging infrastructure, and I'm sold. Otherwise, I want a replaceable battery (both in laptops and phones).

[Jason Dunn]

Actually, Apple may just be playing to the realities of their users. Many business users need replaceable batteries because they spend so much time in the air, in taxi's, in client meeting rooms, etc. that having 2 or 3 extras is a reality of life. I know it was for me when I was actually a business user.

A good point. It's funny, but for several years I was using P5000 and P7000 series laptops from Fujitsu, which had a main removable battery, and a secondary battery that went into the DVD drive slot. So I was easily getting 10 to 11 hours of battery life, and thus complained about notebooks that didn't allow for a secondary battery of some type - whether it be a slate battery on the bottom, or one that popped into the DVD drive slot.

7 hours of battery life on a 17" laptop is pretty damn impressive, but I wish Apple and all the other notebook makers would realize that secondary batteries are the real way to get big battery boosts. HP is the best at this, but they have secondary slate batteries only on their business notebooks...like consumers don't care about having awesome battery life. <sigh> :(

[Vincent Ferrari]

I can't imagine importing my complete photo library into iPhoto. There are some cool features for the average user but not for a Photo Nut like me.

You mean it's cool for the people it's geared for, but not the ones who it isn't? :)

Honestly, iPhoto isn't intended to be a be-all and end-all photo organizer for everyone. It's meant for mom and pop who've never done anything with their photos aside from show them to the family by passing around their camera (yep, there are still those people in 2008). For the rest of us, there's Aperture, Lightroom (my choice), and many others. The improvements for iPhoto will be perfect for the people it's intended for and not that meaningful for everyone else. Just the way it is, I guess.

In any discussion of iPhoto, though, you have to bear in mind the target market.

[Vincent Ferrari]

It's a battery that lasts a lot longer, both in use and in long-term use (i.e., it lasts 1000 refreshes instead of the 300 [I think] that my MacBook battery supports.) I can also count on one hand the number of times that I have removed the battery from my MacBook in two years since I owned it, with a couple of fingers to spare. Once was to replace the hard disk; once was to clean the bottom of the unit. Once was see how to remove it. I think that the whole removable battery thing is overrated.

Maybe, but as someone who replaced the battery on his prior gen MacBook three times in three years, I can certainly say that I don't take their definition of the battery's lifespan to mean anything and I'm a little annoyed that they couldn't put a door under this fabulous new battery.

When I take the battery cover off my MBP (I have the new Unibody one), it's as thin as all get out, so I find it hard to believe that making the battery removable would have added any engineering difficulties to the 17" model; I think they did it so they could shift the position of the battery to keep it thin and that's it.

Non-removable batteries on laptops are a disaster waiting to happen.

[Spooof]

Well I finally took the time to upgrade my iTunes library purchases to iTunes Plus and it was pretty painless. It wasn't free; however it was worth it. Living in Canada I was afraid that the DRM removal would be limited to US only.

I should add that I also purchased another album due to it's availability without DRM so this feature somehow sucked another ten buck out of my account. I have a feeling that I will be spending more on iTunes.