Will Blu-ray Win the War, Not Just the Battle?

[Timothy Huber]

<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://www.maximumpc.com/article/news/is_bluray_doomed' target='_blank'>http://www.maximumpc.com/article/ne...s_bluray_doomed</a><br /><br /></div><p><em>"Doubts have been cast on the success of the Blu-ray format ever since it debuted. Initially, the format appeared to be doomed due to a poor adoption rate, thanks mainly to a host of factors, including the PS3's initial tribulations, popularity of the DVD format, and the steady rise in the popularity of digital downloads."</em></p><p><img src="http://images.thoughtsmedia.com/resizer/thumbs/size/600/dht/auto/1230581394.usr147.jpg" style="border: #d2d2bb 1px solid;" /></p><p>Blu-ray won the format battle against HD-DVD, but it has yet to win the war for HD-content delivery.&nbsp; The opposition?&nbsp; Digital downloads, for one.&nbsp; Personally, I'm a fan. VUDU's HDX rentals are extremely high quality and their full HD library is the largest anywhere.&nbsp; Other competitors include Apple TV/iTunes, Amazon/TiVo, and Netflix; each with varying pros and cons.&nbsp;</p><p>The other opposition?&nbsp; Interestingly enough, standard-def DVD. While it's not true HD content, the output of an upconverting player provides a very satisfying experience, particularly if the&nbsp;movie is&nbsp;good. And consider that many people can't tell the difference between SD and HD on their HDTVs. Basically DVD quality is, in many instances, good enough. While the DVD to Blu-ray quality difference is significant, it's not as big of a leap as VHS to DVD. I remember VHS video artifacts &amp; that interfered with my enjoyment of a movie.&nbsp; Very rarely have seen a DVD issue that is a limitation of the media.</p><p>What do you think?&nbsp;</p>

[Chris Gohlke]

There is room for the improvement, but it won't be the cash cow many were hoping for.

I just got a Sony BluRay player, I was looking for a nice upconverting player and was able to get the Sony 350 for $180 so I went ahead and did it. It is still going to be years before the amount of content available by streaming via HD will equal the amount available on physical media, so I'm happy with the decision. I'm not replacing movies that I have now (except maybe LOTR when it comes out) and won't buy much, but I will rent as much as I can through Netflix.

BluRay will weasle its way into houses as the price drops and people replace their current players. When there is not much of a difference in price, they'll upgrade.

[whydidnt]

It's funny, I have a PS3, but haven't ever watched a Blu-Ray Movie on it. My TV is "only" 720P, but I'm sure Blu-Ray would look better than DVD, but in truth, I've ripped most by DVD's to my Media Server and use the PS3 to stream to the HDTV. It looks good enough for my eyes. I have to agree that Downloads are going to win the war. Hollywood's typical greed once again gets in the way of their own innovation. Trying to charge double for Blu-Ray is just one more nail in it's eventual coffin.

[Felix Torres]

1- BD will look better than upscaled DVD on many movies but not all. And except for the big sfx-laden blockbusters or travelogues, the difference is going to be incremental, not truly generational. Translation: people are *not* going to replace their existing DVD movies with BD renditions except in rare cases. That right there limits the potential upside for BD back-catalog sales.

2- A major portion of ramp-up DVD sales came from people who found buying a DVD for $12-15 a reasonable alternative to $3-4 rentals. With DVD rentals running as low as $1 in many locations, the spread favors rentals again. Throw in online 720p rentals and BDs potential ceiling lowers a bit more.

3- Finaly, disk pricing itself is higher; DVD took off when players got cheap *and* Warner priced the bulk of their releases under $20, list. The studios rush to BD and current pricing is predicated on the idea of people paying a 50-100% premium for HD. That is *not* a realistic perception, but then Sony's perception of the market has been growing steadily less realistic over the last decade and they still haven't really reacted.

All that said, BD *will* take over disk-based movie distribution.
Guaranteed.
All the studios need do is discontinue new DVD releases.
Of course, since there are precious few BD-playing laptops, zero portable players, and no significant BD-rental business (in $ volume) that day is not imminent. So DVD probably has 3-5 years to go as king of movie distribution...
But as the current trends of lower DVD sales and sluggish BD ramp-up continue, at some point desperation will sink in...

[Timothy Huber]

...All that said, BD *will* take over disk-based movie distribution.
Guaranteed.
All the studios need do is discontinue new DVD releases...

I agree that at some point BD will supplant DVD. But by the time that happens will disk-based distribution have lost the war to digital distribution?

[sundown]

I also bought a Sony Blue-ray player for less than $200 and LOVE it. But you won't see me buying Blue-ray discs for $30-$40. I will also rent through Netflix for now. I didn't want Sony to win this race to begin with. They make good products but they're always:

1) Proprietary, using special Sony-only accessories (Memory Stick)
2) Expensive - then you pay for the privilege.

[Janak Parekh]

It's funny, I have a PS3, but haven't ever watched a Blu-Ray Movie on it. My TV is "only" 720P, but I'm sure Blu-Ray would look better than DVD, but in truth, I've ripped most by DVD's to my Media Server and use the PS3 to stream to the HDTV. It looks good enough for my eyes. Really!? Try watching one of your favorite movies in Blu-ray, though, just for fun. I just got a PS3 a month ago, enabled Blu-ray on my Netflix account (killer way to watch Blu-ray, btw, as it just adds $1/month to your bill), and I'm hooked.

Until there's a more cost-effective digital download solution to Netflix+Blu-ray with comparable DRM, I'm not switching. Also, there are constantly (at least at this time of year) crazy Blu-ray disc deals. I bought a few for under $10 two weeks ago, and I just keep on watching for those kinds of prices before I actually buy any.

Personally, I think we're still a while away from Blu-ray being supplanted by digital downloads.

(I do buy HD TV content on iTunes, FWIW, but only for a few shows that I like and want to stay up to speed on.)

--janak

[Pony99CA]

I didn't want Sony to win this race to begin with. They make good products but they're always:

1) Proprietary, using special Sony-only accessories (Memory Stick)
2) Expensive - then you pay for the privilege.
You mean kind of like Apple. :D

At least some of Sony's products (laptops and maybe some camcorders or digital cameras) work with SD cards, too.

As for whether disc will succumb to digital downloads, probably not in the near future. After all, there are still lots of CD sales despite people being able to easily download digital music for years. Yes, CDs may not be selling as well as they used to, but they aren't close to going away, either.

Steve

[Felix Torres]

Yes, CDs may not be selling as well as they used to, but they aren't close to going away, either.

Steve

Yes, but the PTB don't have a desirable (for them) CD replacement anywhere near ready (and the Window to do so has probably long closed) whereas the same backroom dealers have a strong vested interest in making BD "win", hence my suggestion that at a certain point in the next 3 years they will *force* the issue by discontinuing or seriously delay new-content DVD releases.
Remember, that is how they forced the CD transition, by stopping LP production overnight...

[Ed Hansberry]

My dad got blueray last year. I just saw 2 movies on it recently and only because I knew they were BR movies could I tell a difference. Saw 2 regular DVDs and didn't mind the difference. If my current DVD player breaks, I might get a blueray player, maybe, but no way am I buying BR movies. The price is ridiculious. I'll stick with DVDs for several more years at least.

[David Tucker]

Yeah, that's the thing. I can tell a difference when something is in HD. But the difference between HD movies and DVD movies and HD TV and SD TV isn't the same. Movies on DVD are generally pretty high quality to begin with and the upconversions may not be true HD but they do a pretty good job.

I never watch movies and think that the picture looks bad (and yet I rarely watch anything but my HD channels for my cable). With Netflix streaming HD already I don't see any reason to ever buy a BluRay player.

[Felix Torres]

And through it all Steve Jobs refuses to release BluRay drives on Macs, least they take sales from iTunes HD. **curses Steve**

EDIT: Not that I'm willing to spend a premium on BluRay disks yet, but if I buy a Mac I would like it to have the future proofing of a BluRay drive. **grumbles**

Excuse me for a mild snicker: isn't Apple nowadays all about planned obsolescence and selling the same product to the same people as often as possible?
The home of the sealed battery and the 18-month iPod hardware subscription service is hardly a place to look for future-proofing...

Kinda like expecting a Detroit car manufacturer to intro a car with a 20-year bumper-to-bumper warranty...

Jobs is right on this one: BD won't be relevant on computers for another year or two so why introduce it early, when the component costs willl render the product more expensive than the incremental sales can justify(*cough*PS3*cough*), when he can ignore it for an entire product-design cycle and use it to drive replacement sales when it does become significant?

Rest assured he has spreadsheets and cost vs sales charts that prove BD won't generate revenue for Apple yet...

Its not all about coolness; the other 90% of Apple is about squeezing revenue out of their folowers...

[Janak Parekh]

Yeah, that's the thing. I can tell a difference when something is in HD. But the difference between HD movies and DVD movies and HD TV and SD TV isn't the same. Yes and no. From a pure resolution perspective, you're absolutely correct; SDTV is 480i, whereas HDTV is 720p or 1080i. DVD is 480p, while Blu-Ray is 1080p.

The part where it gets complicated is in the compression. Cable/satellite and DVD use much more visible compression. So, it depends on the scene. Night city scenes, for example, look far more stunning on Blu-Ray than any of the other media. On the other hand, watching a movie set in a neutral room with a few people on the screen will pretty much look the same.

I never watch movies and think that the picture looks bad (and yet I rarely watch anything but my HD channels for my cable). With Netflix streaming HD already I don't see any reason to ever buy a BluRay player. The problem is selection. Netflix themselves admit that their Instant coverage is biased against new releases and, in their words, "Our library of choices available to watch instantly is growing every month, but there will be much greater selection available on DVD for a long time to come." Depends on what you want to watch. ;) I do like the ability to watch recently-released movies via Blu-Ray; once (if? Depends on the studios, amongst other things) this changes the entire market will start shifting.

--janak

[Janak Parekh]

And through it all Steve Jobs refuses to release BluRay drives on Macs, least they take sales from iTunes HD. **curses Steve** What gets me most is the lack of HD movies on the desktop. I do like the iTunes HD TV downloads, and I use those regularly.

Excuse me for a mild snicker: isn't Apple nowadays all about planned obsolescence and selling the same product to the same people as often as possible?
The home of the sealed battery and the 18-month iPod hardware subscription service is hardly a place to look for future-proofing... That's a pretty lousy leap of logic, considering it's not expensive to get that sealed battery changed. You'd be on much better ground if you correctly criticized Apple for holding back features on older iPods, unlike Microsoft, who deserves credit for providing firmware updates for the entire Zune platform.

Its not all about coolness; the other 90% of Apple is about squeezing revenue out of their folowers... ... which is every company's goal; Apple is just better at it than most.

--janak

[Felix Torres]

That's a pretty lousy leap of logic, considering it's not expensive to get that sealed battery changed. You'd be on much better ground if you correctly criticized Apple for holding back features on older iPods, unlike Microsoft, who deserves credit for providing firmware updates for the entire Zune platform.

--janak

I was trying to keep it short and not draw up the usual laundry-list of Apple "quirks" (charging for firmware to enable built-in hardware features comes to mind) to stay within topic. Think of it as shorthand for "Apple always does what is best for Apple, not the customer" which was the point I was trying to make. (Other companies do occasionally bite the bullet in the name of customer or brand service but Apple is above such things.)
Proposition: if XBOX were an Apple product NXE would be a $129 buy or only available on New 360s. Agree? Disagree?

Its a new year and I'm trying to cut back on my verbosity.
I might even keep the resolution for a whole week, this year...;)

[Janak Parekh]

I was trying to keep it short and not draw up the usual laundry-list of Apple "quirks" (charging for firmware to enable built-in hardware features comes to mind) to stay within topic. Think of it as shorthand for "Apple always does what is best for Apple, not the customer" which was the point I was trying to make. (Other companies do occasionally bite the bullet in the name of customer or brand service but Apple is above such things.) I think it's more nuanced than that. I think the philosophy can be summed up as "Apple does what it wants to do, and the consumer is welcome to come along for the ride if they want." This approach can sometimes be more successful than listen-to-the-customer approach; in Software Engineering, one rapidly learns that most customers don't actually know what they want. In the SE case, the goal is to find out what the customer wants, whereas of course Apple decides themselves. As of late, though, they've succeeded in capturing the consumer imagination with their decisions, and by taking their own approach they can evolve their product lineup and technologies more rapidly, but it also explains why Apple's lousy for business applications.

Proposition: if XBOX were an Apple product NXE would be a $129 buy or only available on New 360s. Agree? Disagree? Hard to say; apart from it being a non-Apple market, it depends on what revenue streams an Apple NXE would generate. You'll note that FairPlay DRM was backported to the original iPods years later. Similarly, the new AppleTV software was released for older devices, since it drives Apple content sales.

--janak