Holiday Gloom?

[David Tucker]

<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2008/fortune/0810/gallery.holiday_gadgets.fortune/2.html' target='_blank'>http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2008....fortune/2.html</a><br /><br /></div><p><i>"Microsoft's latest answer to the iPod, with 120 gigabytes of storage and a 3.2-inch high-resolution color screen, is a vast improvement over the original Zune, which debuted in 2006. But the new Zune faces the same problem as the iPod: Smartphones and other Web-enabled devices chock full of features (think iPhone) threaten to render these one-trick players obsolete."</i></p><p><img src="http://images.thoughtsmedia.com/resizer/thumbs/size/600/zt/auto/1226085184.usr307.jpg"></p><p>The holiday season is getting close and that means big sales for a lot of gadgets. <a mce_href="http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2008/fortune/0810/gallery.holiday_gadgets.fortune/2.html" href="http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2008/fortune/0810/gallery.holiday_gadgets.fortune/2.html"> Fortune has a list</a> of gadgets, though, that it thinks will be flops. Fortune's biggest issue is that the prevalence of smartphones make the mp3 player start to look a bit long in the tooth. I'm not sure I agree with that assertion. Camera enabled phones have really done nothing to the digital camera business. Most people realize that a stand alone device is better in a lot of cases.<br><br>I think that, for now at least, the standalone MP3 player is still superior to almost any phone based option. The only one that really is a usable solution is the iPhone. And really, with phones tied to carriers, who wants to use that as their primary entertainment device. I really don't know that many people who have eschewed their iPod for an iPhone. Even people who have an iPhone mostly seem to have an iPod as well.<br><br>So with all that said, I think the impact on the Zune will be minimal. There is a large market for MP3 players that I really just don't see going away any time soon.</p>

[inteller]

being able to order songs you hear off the radio wirelessly is one trick? being able to wirelessly exchange songs and podcasts between friends is one trick? being able to stream an entire music library and listen to same songs as your friends are listening too is one trick?

and this is before we even talk about smartphone audio DSPs being woefully inferior to dedicated units. Please show me where I can find a Wolfson DSP in a smartphone.


PUH-lease.....I've totally stopped reading MSM mag reviews of the zune, they are all stupid. please show me a smartphone that can do any of that.

[David Tucker]

Not to mention if they felt this would be a problem for MP3 players in general...the only player that REALLY has room to disappoint is the iPod. But yeah...I have a Zune to listen to music. Its for seriously listening to music in ways that I can't with a non-dedicated device.

There was a brief move towards integrating everything at one point but people began to realize that there is value in separation.

[Pony99CA]

[...]I think the impact on the Zune will be minimal. There is a large market for MP3 players that I really just don't see going away any time soon.
I thnk you have to look at it as two segments: small (flash) vs. large (disk) media players.

I think the market for flash-based media players will be hurt by smart phones. With an 8 GB memory card in my Motorola Q9m, I have as much storage as most iPhone 1s, iPod Nano 3Gs, Zune 2s and earlier models.

The market for disk-based media players, though, is a different beast. Those allow you to carry your entire music library or lots of video, something no phones can do (yet). If somebody really needs to carry more than 16-32GB storage, they'll need a media player.

Steve

[Pony99CA]

being able to order songs you hear off the radio wirelessly is one trick? being able to wirelessly exchange songs and podcasts between friends is one trick? being able to stream an entire music library and listen to same songs as your friends are listening too is one trick?
Many smart phones are adding FM radios, and they obviously have wireless, so it wouldn't take a rocket scientist (or theoretical physicist) to add those features to Windows Mobile or the iPhone.

And, with services like Orb (http://orb.com), you can stream your entire music library from your home PC to your mobile device.

Of course, the iPod doesn't do those and still sells quite well, so many people don't appear to think they're that useful anyway (or they're suffering from iTunes inertia).

and this is before we even talk about smartphone audio DSPs being woefully inferior to dedicated units. Please show me where I can find a Wolfson DSP in a smartphone.
I can't help with that last request as I don't even know what a Wolfson DSP is (I know what a DSP is, just not a Wolfson one). However, if you're a real audiophile, do you really even want a lossy format recording? Shouldn't all of your music be ripped to WAV or FLAC?

Most consumers are probably happy with their low- to mid-range audio system, and most digital music users may be happy with their smart phone (especailly if they only have to carry one device).

Steve

[David Tucker]

I agree that it will eventually eat into MP3 player sales but I think there will be a market for PMPs for a long time. That said I don't see how the current crop of smartphones has any realistic chance of affecting MP3 sales other than the iPhone.

[Jason Dunn]

Some great points David. I think what people fail to take into account is that, just like with HDTVs, there's a point where the market is saturated and almost everyone who wants to get a certain product has already bought one. So in the case of MP3 players, the market isn't growing in leaps and bounds because so many people already have MP3 players...so the iPod and the Zune are competing for people who are upgrading essentially...

[Jason Dunn]

I think the market for flash-based media players will be hurt by smart phones. With an 8 GB memory card in my Motorola Q9m, I have as much storage as most iPhone 1s, iPod Nano 3Gs, Zune 2s and earlier models.

I used to be a die-hard "one device to rule them all" guy, but after having more than one experience with having the battery die on my PDA or phone because I was listening to music or watching videos, I switched to being a two-device guy and I haven't looked back. It would take a HUGE breakthrough in battery technology for me to ever consider switching to a one-device solution again.

[Pony99CA]

I used to be a die-hard "one device to rule them all" guy, but after having more than one experience with having the battery die on my PDA or phone because I was listening to music or watching videos, I switched to being a two-device guy and I haven't looked back. It would take a HUGE breakthrough in battery technology for me to ever consider switching to a one-device solution again.
That's a good point. I suppose it depends on how much you listen to music or watch video, though. I don't do much of either, so my Windows Mobile device is fine as my (infrequently used) media player.

If you do listen to a lot of music or watch a lot of video, maybe getting a second battery or one of those power packs that recharge your device would be a good investment (and cheaper than a dedicated media player).

On another point, if your experience is the norm, that implies most of these iPhones won't be a user's primary media player, right? People might think they can use only one, but they'll eventually revert back to their iPod.

Steve

[David Tucker]

There.s more to it than just battery life too but its a big consideration. I also once thought I could do everything with one device. The all in one device suffers some huge problems though that are almost unresolvable. My phone is an ok phone and an ok PDA. Its a mediocre camera. Its a terrible MP3 player. A big reason for that is that the controls on the phone are designed to be a Phone and PDA. Its not a very natural device to use for music or video.

With the Zune if you want to play music anyone can figure that out. Hit play. Convergence really only hit the PDA and phone because of how many functions made sense to work together. Contacts make sense to be on a phone. Contacts are an important part of the rest of your PIM operations like scheduling. The ability of a phone to connect to the web increases the phone's utility as a business device.

The only benefit a music player gets from a phone is the web connection to d/l music. Honestly that's not something I do even when I'm able to. If I'm at work I jsut want a device that can play my music easily. Most people I think are in the same boat.

[Pony99CA]

There.s more to it than just battery life too but its a big consideration. I also once thought I could do everything with one device. The all in one device suffers some huge problems though that are almost unresolvable. My phone is an ok phone and an ok PDA. Its a mediocre camera. Its a terrible MP3 player. A big reason for that is that the controls on the phone are designed to be a Phone and PDA. Its not a very natural device to use for music or video.
With your standard Pocket PC or Smartphone, the most important controls are pretty well mapped to the five-way directional pad, though.


Play/Pause is the OK button.
Track skip back is the Left button.
Track skip forward is the Right button.
Volume up is the Up button.
Volume down is the Down button.

It doesn't get much simpler than that. ;)

It's the lesser-used functions that are harder to use -- Stop (OK, maybe that's used a lot, but probably not as much as the above five), Mute, Shuffle, Repeat, etc. With a touchscreen device, many of those are on the skin (probably very similar to an iPod Touch); with touchscreen or non-touchscreen devices, you can easily map those functions to other buttons.

Convergence really only hit the PDA and phone because of how many functions made sense to work together. Contacts make sense to be on a phone. Contacts are an important part of the rest of your PIM operations like scheduling. The ability of a phone to connect to the web increases the phone's utility as a business device.
I suspect Microsoft added phone support to allow over-the-air Exchange synchronzation (including E-mail), which has turned out to be a huge plus for Microsoft.

Also, I believe that media player convergence actually started with PDAs, not phones. Windows Media was part of Windows CE before Microsoft added phone support.

The only benefit a music player gets from a phone is the web connection to d/l music. Honestly that's not something I do even when I'm able to.
What about media streaming from the Internet (or did you include that in downloading)? You could also use it for playlist sharing (I'm not sure if anybody does that yet). And, of course, you could use it for tech support. :)

Also, remember that it's not just how a media player benefits from a phone, it's how a phone can benefit from a media player. Examples include using richer media as your ring tones and being able to run slideshows and play video taken from the phone's camera.

Finally, let's not underestimate the reason we're talking about this at all -- the ability to carry one device instead of two. Yes, you may need to buy an extra charger for work so you can charge your device while listening to media, but it's still cheaper than two devices.

Steve

[Jason Dunn]

Steve, I'm really happy that you're so thrilled with how well Windows Mobile devices work as digital media players, but neither David nor myself feel the same, so if it's all the same to you, we'll keep using our Zunes and enjoying them. OK? :)

[David Tucker]

What Jason said. And I did use to use my WM (Well, PPC2k2 device) as a media player and once felt the same way. The mappings aren't intuitive though. Nothing's more intuitive for a play/pause button than a...play/pause button!

Not to mention if you're using your device for other functions while using the media player, those mappings fall apart pretty quick.

[inteller]

i think that in the next year we will see prototypes or even a working version of Zune 4 WM. I wouldn't even be surprised if it showed up as a component of WM 6.5 to replace WMP. I think it is pretty obvious with the lack of updates for WMP mobile there are plans to eshew it for something else.

[Pony99CA]

Steve, I'm really happy that you're so thrilled with how well Windows Mobile devices work as digital media players, but neither David nor myself feel the same, so if it's all the same to you, we'll keep using our Zunes and enjoying them. OK? :)
I don't think your comment is very fair. I didn't say that anybody shouldn't use what makes them happy, did I? In fact, I agreed that the original article was wrong with respect to hard disk media players, which I doubt phones will replace.

However, I don't think that many of the arguments made here for not using a PDA or phone as a media player hold water for flash-based media players. Some certainly do (like battery life, and I agreed with you) depending on your usage, but there are always trade-offs.

Steve

[Pony99CA]

[...]I did use to use my WM (Well, PPC2k2 device) as a media player and once felt the same way. The mappings aren't intuitive though. Nothing's more intuitive for a play/pause button than a...play/pause button!
Of course not -- assuming you've learned those symbols (which aren't really intuitive) mean Play and Plause. That's a trade-off made for a device that can do more than one thing. You can put one or two labels, three at most, on a button. More than that would really be confusing. However, I think anybody can learn that the big round button (usually) in the center is Play/Pause after one or two tries, don't you?

And how intuitive is that big thing in the center of the Zune? Not having used a Zune, I don't know if it's a wheel (like older iPods) or directional pad (like a PDA). So I wouldn't call it "intuitive", although I'm sure I'd get used to it very quickly.

"Intuitive" means "natural", which very few technological gadgets are in the most literal sense. It can also mean "easy to learn", but I don't think the controls of many media players are particularly difficult to learn, are they? Some are easier to learn than others (with good labels), but after a brief learning curve, I think most are fairly easy to use (which is more important in the long run).

Not to mention if you're using your device for other functions while using the media player, those mappings fall apart pretty quick.
True, but that's another trade-off in a multi-tasking device. I seem to recall WM having a setting that kept the buttons mapped even when you left the media player, so you could have used that, but it seems to have been removed (at least in WM 5). That's fine by me, because I wanted the buttons to have the usual functions when the media player wasn't active (presumably most people did, too, which is why Microsoft removed that function).

So let me ask another question. If all media players were limited to flash memory and the largest you could get was 8 GB, why would you use a Zune instead of your Windows Mobile phone with an 8 GB memory card? So far, I think we have the following reasons:


Audio quality -- That's a good reason, but I don't think anything prevents using better audio components in a phone (other than manufacturers wanting to keep costs down). And remember that not everybody is that picky about audio quality. If they were, digital audio might have died with 128 kbps MP3s. ;) And people still listen to FM radio.... :eek:


Battery life -- That's another decent reason, but why not just carry a second battery (or buy an extended battery) for your phone. I think that would be easier than carrying two devices.


Better sofware -- Sure, but let's assume the Zune software is ported to Windows Mobile as is rumored.

What else is there?

Steve

[David Tucker]

Of course not -- assuming you've learned those symbols (which aren't really intuitive) mean Play and Plause.

You're from Earth, right? ;)

[Pony99CA]

You're from Earth, right? ;)
That's what my birth certificate says, although I suppose there could be an Oakland County, Michigan, on some other planet. :D

I'm just saying that those symbols are not "intuitive", they're learned. I might accept that Play and Fast Forward/Rewind are reasonably intuitive (meaing Go, Go Faster and Go Faster Backward), but how does a square represent Stop (why not an octagon, like a Stop sign -- still not intuitive, but recognizable to most drivers) or two thick vertical bars represent Pause?

You know what they mean not through intuition but because you either experimented with the buttons to see what they did or were told what they did. I think learning what buttons control which functions on a PDA is almost equally easy to learn.

I'll grant that the unlabeled directional pad (with respect to media functions) on a PDA might be a bit harder to learn and remember, but the functions are mapped logically, so I don't think they're that difficult to learn or remember, either.

But let's go back to the original question -- will smartphones take marketshare from dedicated MP3 players. As I said, probably not for hard disk players (which also tend to have larger screens), but I think flash-based players will lose some marketshare. Yes, dedicated players have some advantages, but the question wasn't about what audiophiles preferred, but more general. I think your average consumer could find enough benefit in not having to carry two devices that flash-based players will lose marketshare, despite the admitted advantages of using a dedicated device. I don't think the average consumer will find those advantages compelling enough to overcome the lure of carrying only one device.

Steve

[inspiretech]

Today I read (http://www.zuneagent.com/) that Microsoft gave their flash-based Zunes a price cut. So maybe that will help the Zune during the holiday season. Who knows. But this was a great step by Microsoft.