Microsoft Thinks iPhone's Sales Figure are Cute

[Rocco Augusto]

<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://www.businessweek.com/technology/ByteOfTheApple/blog/archives/2008/10/apples_iphone_s.html' target='_blank'>http://www.businessweek.com/technol...s_iphone_s.html</a><br /><br /></div><p><em>"Microsoft's Robbie Bach feigned an uninterested yawn at Apple's 6.9 million iPhones figure in an interview with BusinessWeek the other day. He wasn't particularly insulting of the product, but didn't think the number means too much in the long run. "Apple had a big launch of a new product, and they launched at scale in a lot of new countries with a lot of new [wireless] operators. This quarter, RIM is having its big launch, and at some point we'll have our big launch. We'll have to see where things normalize." While that statement is encouraging for the fact that it semi-implies that Windows Mobile 7 is supposed to be released at "some point," we're not sure we're picking up what Robbie is putting down -- 6.9 million of a single device seems to imply a bit more than "launch buzz." Things devolved quickly when Bach started spouting about how carriers want a balanced ecosystem. That may be true, but consumers are the ones that buy the phones, and if their RAZR buying habits are any indication, "ecosystem" isn't their top priority."</em></p><p><img src="http://images.thoughtsmedia.com/resizer/thumbs/size/600/spt/auto/1210831667.usr8.jpg" /></p><p>Well if Robbie Bach should have learned anything by now Apple has a way of making launch buzz last an eternity. Every time an Apple product starts to fall out of the public consciousness, BAM! Another Apple event is just around the corner to put the Internet in Apple frenzy. I'm just baffled that after the suffering years of abuse via smear advertisements by the hands of Apple regarding Vista that they have still not learned to take Apple seriously. Feel as you may about the Apple iPhone but we can't ignore that it is pretty much printing money for Apple at the moment. The longer Microsoft stalls in releasing their new operating system the more speed and momentum iPhone sales will gain.</p>

[whydidnt]

I'd say his comments pretty much sum up why we haven't seen any innovation from Microsoft on this platform in the last several years. They have grown complacent and are ignoring the competition. Too bad for them - this one time evangelist has moved on. My daily driver is now the iPhone 3G and YES, I use it for business daily. Microsoft thinks they can bury their head in the sand and competition will just go away. Blackberry provides an easier to use email solution for those who really just want corporate email with their phone, and iPhone provides a superior internet/entertainment platform. Buy the time Microsoft realizes they have significant competition, they will no longer be relevant in the mobile world.

I know MS still maintains a large WM market share, but their lack of innovation is starting to, and will continue to catch up with them. It's not like the desktop space, where you can drive a competitor out and resell the same software over and over - It's obviously much easier for competitors to pop up in the mobile space.

[griph]

MS need to be really careful ... I have been a PPC/WM fan since the launch of the iPaq 3600 back in 2000 and had many varied MS devices. For the first time in 8 years I have a non- WM device - an iPhone3G - and with the launch of Google Earth for iPhone (which is truly incredible) the pressure is well and truly on MS to pull out their finger and start innovating rather than sticking out their tongues at the up and coming competition.

The iPod has been the dominant MP3 for some time - and in the iPhone - only in its 2nd generation already has become a creditable device that is going to be taking away market share - not just for domestic users - but with Exchange support (and it works really well from my point of view) the business market isn't safe.

It wont be long before the next iPhone version comes out - WM7 needs to make a very big leap forward (and not just a tweak). It is clear to me that there is a steadily growing current of dissatisfaction in the WM camp (evident here and on 4WinMobile). Another sea change may well be in the offing! Hold onto your hats!

[Rocco Augusto]

Even though I have currently moved on to the Google Android platform, I would very much love to see something new and innovating from Microsoft. I would love to be able to move back to a Windows Mobile device and just not be incredibly bored with it.

Sure I cannot do everything on the G1 that I could do on Windows Mobile, but it is so downright easy to use and fun to look at and everything is designed in a finger friendly non-cluttered layout, that I am willing to make exceptions and go without some of the features I really love like smartdialing.

T-Mobile is even already pushing OTA updates out to Android users not even a week after the phone has been released. Even though we have had Windows Update on our devices for years, when was the last time it was ever used?

Its areas like these where soon people will start moving over to the prettier and easier to use platform because its just more exciting and fun to use.

[Kacey Green]

T-Mobile is even already pushing OTA updates out to Android users not even a week after the phone has been released. Even though we have had Windows Update on our devices for years, when was the last time it was ever used?

When was the first time it was used?

[onlydarksets]

When was the first time it was used?

lol - burn!

[onlydarksets]

T-Mobile is even already pushing OTA updates out to Android users not even a week after the phone has been released. Even though we have had Windows Update on our devices for years, when was the last time it was ever used?

I wonder how frequent those updates will be, though, once there are more devices to support. It's easy now, because Android has to run reliably on exactly one hardware configuration. I hope they can maintain the level of support (and open-source will certainly help that), but it's only going to get harder over time.

[stevew]

I know many will disagree, but I truly believe it's just a matter of time before WM is no more. I've seen it before, just when you shrug off your competition the end comes. WM has never been a priority with MS and never will be.

[Pony99CA]

I know many will disagree, but I truly believe it's just a matter of time before WM is no more.
Is that your own conclusion, or did you read Cringely's Windows Mobile is dead (http://www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/2008/pulpit_20081023_005500.html) article? That article had a few holes, I think (namely, I don't buy the 85-10-5 split).

What was the last market that Microsoft entered where they either gave up and let their products die?

Steve

[whydidnt]

What was the last market that Microsoft entered where they either gave up and let their products die?

Steve

Well, they've never been as big in any market as WM and let it die, but it's not without precedent. Remember the old handheld PC's running Windows CE? How about "Smart Displays", those thin clients that we were going to use to surf from anywhere in our homes? I'm sure you remember "Plays for Sure", their initiative to compete with the iPod, which is probably the most relevant here. Similar eco-systems and issues in combining MS Software with 3rd Party hardware that never seemed to compete well with the closed Apple environment. I also think dabbled in speakers, game controllers, etc. and have since opted out.

They also have been in and out of the local search business - remember when they owned "CitySearch", but sold it? Now we have Live or Local Search to replace it.

I'm not necessarily predicting the demise of WM, but I don't think you can just say, it's Microsoft so they won't give up.

[Rocco Augusto]

When was the first time it was used?

I remember reading a story once where they were experimenting with using Windows Update to push out some controlled update to testers. I doubt it ever made it to the mainstream though.

[Rocco Augusto]

I wonder how frequent those updates will be, though, once there are more devices to support. It's easy now, because Android has to run reliably on exactly one hardware configuration. I hope they can maintain the level of support (and open-source will certainly help that), but it's only going to get harder over time.

I was worried about this as well but form what I am seeing this is one of the reason Google doesn't allow manufactures to fork the Android build, to make it a lot easier to manage the soon-to-be-expected lineup from different manufactures.

I also wonder who is in charge of pushing out the OTA updates? Does T-Mobile get the final say? Google? HTC in the G1's case? They haven't made any of this clear at all but at least we're getting an update which is a lot more than we can say for Windows Mobile at the moment.

[Rocco Augusto]

What was the last market that Microsoft entered where they either gave up and let their products die?

Steve

Yeah but Windows Mobile has always been an afterthought of Microsoft. The first time I ever heard the term "knifing the baby" and every time I have heard it since has always been from someone at Microsoft or associated with Microsoft referring to Windows Mobile.

Windows Mobile often is on the receiving end of being gutted like a fish due to internal office politics or the fact of the matter that they sell ActiveSync licenses to everyone and their grandmother so there is no incentive to make WM better when you're receiving money from almost all of your competition. Microsoft wins either way.

I highly doubt Windows Mobile as we know it will survive. Even if Microsoft closes its eyes and covers its ears and pretends they don't see or hear the competition in their whole "I-can't-hear-you-neener-neener-neener" stance, they have to be aware that taking some features that the competition has such as updating a device without destroying your information is just a nobrainer to include in the next version of WM.

The landscape is changing, I wish Microsoft would just give us an idea or what it is changing into.

[stevew]

Is that your own conclusion, or did you read Cringely's Windows Mobile is dead (http://www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/2008/pulpit_20081023_005500.html) article? That article had a few holes, I think (namely, I don't buy the 85-10-5 split).

What was the last market that Microsoft entered where they either gave up and let their products die?

Steve

No I did not read that article and I wasn't necessarily speaking of Microsoft alone losing out because they didn't take their competition seriously. Any company that thinks they don't have to worry about the competition or takes them lightly and just coasts along is in for a big surprise.

I can remember years ago I purchased a Microsoft home phone for over $200. It was the latest greatest. It worked with the PC and took messages, caller ID and the works. A few months later it was discontinued. I needed a battery and couldn't even get a replacement. In this incident it wasn't necessarily competition that caused them to discontinue the product but they left many hanging just the same.

[Pony99CA]

Well, they've never been as big in any market as WM and let it die, but it's not without precedent. Remember the old handheld PC's running Windows CE? How about "Smart Displays", those thin clients that we were going to use to surf from anywhere in our homes? I'm sure you remember "Plays for Sure", their initiative to compete with the iPod, which is probably the most relevant here. Similar eco-systems and issues in combining MS Software with 3rd Party hardware that never seemed to compete well with the closed Apple environment. I also think dabbled in speakers, game controllers, etc. and have since opted out.
Yes, Microsoft has abandoned some smaller areas, so I'm going to ignore the non-analogous ones (like hardware, local search and music initiatives). However, I would disagree about the Handheld PC part.

As you probably know, the original Handheld PCs ran straight Windows CE. Windows CE was later put onto Palm-Size PCs, which later morphed into Pocket PCs running Windows CE with the Pocket PC shell. That Windows CE/Pocket PC shell got renamed Windows Mobile in 2003. So I would argue that they haven't abandoned the PDA market, even though they did stop making the Handheld PC version of the OS.

I'm not necessarily predicting the demise of WM, but I don't think you can just say, it's Microsoft so they won't give up.
True. Shareholders probably hope they'd give up on a market where they lost money and had no hope of making any. However, I don't think most of the markets Microsoft is in (at least in a big way) fall into that category. Everybody except infants knows that mobile is a huge opportunity (I assume that's why Apple and Google entered it), so I can't imagine Microsoft would abandon it.

I also think they're big and smart enough where they won't fall victim to the Palm malaise. At least, I hope so. I don't think it's a foregone conclusion like Cringely does.

Steve

[kdarling]

Apple is the one to gain or lose the most in the future.

Apple or Android sales don't affect MS nearly as much. (And MS gets Exchange license fees for each iPhone sold.)

WM is not a huge part of MS, but the iPhone is ~40% of Apple's current income. If Android or WM should boost their sales, it's Apple that will suffer the most proportionally.

[stevew]

WM is not a huge part of MS, but the iPhone is ~40% of Apple's current income. If Android or WM should boost their sales, it's Apple that will suffer the most proportionally.

Just more the reason for Apple to put the final nail in the coffin of WM.

And believe me I'm not an Apple fan. I've had PPC's, PPC Phones, Smartphones since day one. Only a year or so ago did I break from WM to the iPhone. For my needs it's been the best phone I've ever owned.

[whydidnt]

Yes, Microsoft has abandoned some smaller areas, so I'm going to ignore the non-analogous ones (like hardware, local search and music initiatives). However, I would disagree about the Handheld PC part.

...

I also think they're big and smart enough where they won't fall victim to the Palm malaise. At least, I hope so. I don't think it's a foregone conclusion like Cringely does.

Steve

Well, I disagree, I think the music market is HUGE, and MS though PFS would be the solution. They invested big $ and eventually just walked away. Let's not forget why Microsoft got into PDAs in the first place, just like they saw Netscape as a potential threat to their desktop dominance, they also feared Palm could or would grow into a desktop competitor. They wanted to make Palm focus their attention away from that area and stay in the mobile space.

Many of Microsoft's decisions around Windows Mobile have been made based upon protecting their core cash cows - Windows and Office. There has always been an internal struggle regarding how much fucntionality should be included in Windows mobile. If it gets/got too powerful, why would anyone spend $100.00 for Windows and $200 for Office - If the same basic funcionality is provided in the mobile space, and MS can only sell the license for $10, they stand lose huge revenue $. That's why office and IE have historically been crippled, and most likely why we havne't seen significant hardware advances. Almost every improvement MS has delivered in the last 10 years has been in areas that compliment their desktop strategy. If an improvement makes the desktop less meaningful, then they have avoided that area.

There isn't a technical reason we couldn't have a sub $400.00 WinCE device similar to all the popular netbooks running today - the device could have a 1 Ghz ARM processor, 16 GB of Flash ROM and 512k of RAM. The only reason we didn't have these 2 years ago is that it wasn't in Microsoft's best interest. The same holds true for our mobile phones. We could/should have had a much better experience by now, but MS didn't care. A nice browser wasn't going to sell more copies of Office. A full featured media player with support for multiple codecs wasn't going to help sell more copies of Vista or XP. Microsoft has been walking the line of trying to hold back the power of mobile devices for the last 10 years for these reasons!! It may not be the same malaise that overtook Palm, but the end results have been the same.

Now that other competitors have emerged that can fill the spaces Microsoft purposely left empty in WM, Microsoft will have to decide they want to compete or they will end up becoming a niche business email device that primarily competes with Blackberry for space in corporate email users pockets. Until they improve overall ease of use, and the email client they will continue to be 2nd fiddle there as well though.

Many of us that have been long time supporters of Windows Mobile have lost faith in Microsofts commitment to this space. It's going to be up them to prove they really want to compete. Delaying the "next big thing" another year certainly doesn't help improve their position.

Of course Bill Gates said it best "In this business, by the time you realize you're in trouble, it's too late to save yourself. Unless you're running scared all the time, you're gone. " I would say that in the Windows Mobile space, Micrsoft has NOT been running scared and didn't realize they were in trouble until way too late. The comment about Microsoft thinking Apple's sales are just a blip proves that point.

[Pony99CA]

Many of Microsoft's decisions around Windows Mobile have been made based upon protecting their core cash cows - Windows and Office. There has always been an internal struggle regarding how much fucntionality should be included in Windows mobile. If it gets/got too powerful, why would anyone spend $100.00 for Windows and $200 for Office - If the same basic funcionality is provided in the mobile space, and MS can only sell the license for $10, they stand lose huge revenue $. That's why office and IE have historically been crippled, and most likely why we havne't seen significant hardware advances.
I might accept that premise for Office, but not for IE. Microsoft can't believe that improving IE Mobile would hurt sales of Windows, can they? They don't expect people to carry their laptops (or desktops!) with them everywhere, but they do realize the importance of browsing on the go. (They put a version of Pocket IE into Windows CE back in the Handheld PC days, when Palm was only offering Web clipping and sneering at the idea of a full browser in a PDA.)

There isn't a technical reason we couldn't have a sub $400.00 WinCE device similar to all the popular netbooks running today - the device could have a 1 Ghz ARM processor, 16 GB of Flash ROM and 512k of RAM. The only reason we didn't have these 2 years ago is that it wasn't in Microsoft's best interest.
I don't know. Imagine an instant-on netbook that syncs with your PC (or Exchange Server). I don't think I'd abandon Windows completely for that, but I might consider buying one. Would you abandon Windows for that?

A nice browser wasn't going to sell more copies of Office. A full featured media player with support for multiple codecs wasn't going to help sell more copies of Vista or XP.
True, but they won't cannibalize sales of Windows or Office, either.

But let's consider the reverse question. What could Microsoft do that would help sell more copies of Windows or Office? I'm not sure there's a lot they could do to Windows Mobile in that regard, especially given the penetration of Windows and Office.

Many of us that have been long time supporters of Windows Mobile have lost faith in Microsofts commitment to this space. It's going to be up them to prove they really want to compete. Delaying the "next big thing" another year certainly doesn't help improve their position.
I agree a delay is bad, but I haven't given up hope yet.

Of course Bill Gates said it best "In this business, by the time you realize you're in trouble, it's too late to save yourself. Unless you're running scared all the time, you're gone. " I would say that in the Windows Mobile space, Micrsoft has NOT been running scared and didn't realize they were in trouble until way too late. The comment about Microsoft thinking Apple's sales are just a blip proves that point.
Until the iPhone came out and proved itself, I don't think there was a reason for Microsoft to be scared. However, as you mentioned Netscape before, look what happened after Microsoft decided they were a threat. They started a whole new Internet initiative that eventually wound up with Internet Explorer being the dominant browser (helped by some shady bundling and anti-trust, perhaps).

With various people saying mobile has the potential to replace PCs, Microsoft had better be scared and have a strong contender in the mobile space. I think they still have time to do that, but it's obviously getting shorter.

Steve

[petvas]

I have been using an iPhone since day one and I have to say that it is a very big difference compared to Windows Mobile. I have been using WM devices since the first iPaq came out and I have always liked the open platform that Windows Mobile is. The main reasons I abandoned the platform are:
* Media/Music Player is a joke...compared to iTunes/iPod
* Pocket Internet Explorer....hmmmm - what should I say?
* OS is slow and needs a complete rearchitecture
* at the time I left the platform the devices available wasn't very good. Now the situation seems to change with HTC Touch HD

I would really love to go back to WM but I can't as long as the above reasons exist. I know that Opera Mobile has to be considered as a serious alternative to Safari Mobile, so that is one problem less...What about the Media Player? The OS needs to be improved...

I would get the HTC Touch HD because I would love to use the gorgeous screen and my favorite PIM programs, Pocket Informant and Agenda One, but I would still need an iPod for everything else, so at the end the iPhone wins. Maybe sometime this will change...I don't like that Apple is sometimes very close as a platform...

[Pony99CA]

I know that Opera Mobile has to be considered as a serious alternative to Safari Mobile, so that is one problem less...What about the Media Player? The OS needs to be improved...
You might not need a third-party browser in a few months if IE Mobile gets IE 6 support. It may not be touch-friendly, but the biggest complaints I've seen are about rendering and display, not UI.

But if you're willing to consider third-party software for the browser, why not for the media player, too? And, if you believe the rumors, the media player may be replaced by something Zune-like in a future release (I'd guess maybe WM 6.5, most certainly by WM 7).

Steve

[petvas]

You might not need a third-party browser in a few months if IE Mobile gets IE 6 support. It may not be touch-friendly, but the biggest complaints I've seen are about rendering and display, not UI.

But if you're willing to consider third-party software for the browser, why not for the media player, too? And, if you believe the rumors, the media player may be replaced by something Zune-like in a future release (I'd guess maybe WM 6.5, most certainly by WM 7).

Steve

I have a big iTunes Library with DRM protected songs...I don't think that there is currently any other solution than the iPod/iPhone.

[Pony99CA]

I have a big iTunes Library with DRM protected songs...I don't think that there is currently any other solution than the iPod/iPhone.
As far as I know, Apple doesn't let anybody else use their DRM system, so no Windows Mobile device (or any other non-Apple device other than a Windows PC running iTunes) will be able to play them. You can't blame that on Windows Media Player.

You could always remove the DRM, though. The official way is to burn the song to a CD and then rip it, but I've read about DRM strippers that don't require the intermediate step.

Steve

[petvas]

As far as I know, Apple doesn't let anybody else use their DRM system, so no Windows Mobile device (or any other non-Apple device other than a Windows PC running iTunes) will be able to play them. You can't blame that on Windows Media Player.

You could always remove the DRM, though. The official way is to burn the song to a CD and then rip it, but I've read about DRM strippers that don't require the intermediate step.

Steve

I don't blame Windows Media Player for that, I am just mentioning the fact that the only devices I can listen my music to, are iPods/iPhone...
I could live with having two devices, one for music/videos and one for the rest, but then I found out that the quality of apps for the iPhone is much better than the ones for WM (with exceptions of course like PIM software for example where WM is much better).
If I look at the games available, WM cannot even compare with the iPhone. Of course it's not about games (though it is nice to have them :) ).
I use software on my iPhone for which I couldn't find an equivalent for the WM:

eBay app
An app that lets me see all train connections for all stations in Germany. I use it almost every day, as I am travelling a lot by train (Deutsche Bahn).
A Timesheet app with powerful export options
a Skype Client (I know there is one for WM - the one for the iPhone doesn't cost anything though...)
An app to calculate Brutto/Netto Salary
a Telnet Client (I haven't checked if WM has one)
a Taxi app. It locates me and calls a Taxi for me!
Google Earth
a Remote Control app for iTunes


The quality of these apps is really great. The interface is intuitive and very user friendly...Even if someone could find something similar on WM, the interface should be using Touch....

[Pony99CA]

I don't blame Windows Media Player for that, I am just mentioning the fact that the only devices I can listen my music to, are iPods/iPhone...
Well, you actually said that one of the reasons you abandoned Windows Mobile was because the media player was a joke. But even if WM had the greatest media player in the world, it wouldn't matter because it wouldn't be able to play your music, so I don't think your original comment is fair.

If I look at the games available, WM cannot even compare with the iPhone. Of course it's not about games (though it is nice to have them :) ).
Yes, they are nice to have. Are iPhone games really that much better than games from companies like PDAmill (http://pdamill.com) or games you can play using one of the many WM console emulators?

I use software on my iPhone for which I couldn't find an equivalent for the WM:

eBay app
An app that lets me see all train connections for all stations in Germany. I use it almost every day, as I am travelling a lot by train (Deutsche Bahn).
A Timesheet app with powerful export options
a Skype Client (I know there is one for WM - the one for the iPhone doesn't cost anything though...)
An app to calculate Brutto/Netto Salary
a Telnet Client (I haven't checked if WM has one)
a Taxi app. It locates me and calls a Taxi for me!
Google Earth
a Remote Control app for iTunes

There are various Telnet applications, including the freePocket PuTTY (http://review.svpocketpc.com/pocketputty/PocketPuTTY.html). I'm not sure why Google Earth is much better than Google Maps (which is available for Windows Mobile). I also recall reading about an iTunes remote control for WM, but I can't be sure.

Steve