Windows Mobile 7: 2010 and Counting

[Rocco Augusto]

<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/gigaom/big-tech/2008_10_15_why_windows_mobile_is_in_trouble.html' target='_blank'>http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds...in_trouble.html</a><br /><br /></div><p><em>"Recently it was revealed that the newest version of Microsoft's mobile operating system, Windows Mobile 7.0, would be delayed until as late as 2010. The updated version, which the company's partners had reportedly been hoping to have by early 2009, was aimed at giving Microsoft a bigger presence on the mobile stage. But delay or no delay, I don't think it would have been enough. With competition from a resurgent BlackBerry platform from Research in Motion, Apple's iPhone and most importantly, the Google Phone platform (I will analyze Nokia's Symbian platform in a separate post at a later date), Microsoft's mobile platform is facing its toughest environment yet."</em></p><p><img src="http://images.thoughtsmedia.com/resizer/thumbs/size/600/zt/auto/1224114383.usr8.jpg" /></p><p>Despite the title of this article I ran across on CNN today, <a href="http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/gigaom/big-tech/2008_10_15_why_windows_mobile_is_in_trouble.html" target="_blank">Why Windows Mobile is in Trouble</a>, it is not the usual doom and gloom scenario that appears to be popping up in the Internet consciousness as of late regarding Windows Mobile. Om Malik goes on to write a fantastic piece on how Microsoft is now more than ever fighting an uphill battle in the mobile handset world in a means to stay relevant in the consumers' eyes, especially with the release of Google's new Android platform which Malik describes as "Windows Mobile done right". This article also quoted <a href="http://venturebeat.com/2008/09/26/windows-mobile-7-phone-release-now-seriously-delayed-could-be-as-late-as-2010/" target="_blank">VentureBeat</a> in stating that we might not even see new Windows Mobile handsets until 2010! <MORE /><br /><br />With all of these delays surrounding the Windows Mobile 7 world, the only logical thing we can assume is that Microsoft is rebuilding Windows Mobile from the ground up and maybe even possibly merging the Standard and Professional platform into the mythical <a href="http://www.smartphonethoughts.com/news/show/18000/0/1/3">Photon</a> platform which we haven't heard anything about in a while. Unfortunately we only have speculation to work with at this time. Windows Mobile Group Product Manager Scott Rockfeld has been quoted as stating that Microsoft is "not publicly sharing our roadmap at this point."<br /><br />However there is that completely irrational and paranoid portion of my brain secretly thinks that with this latest delay Microsoft is planning some big marketing event to have Windows 7 and Windows Mobile 7 launch at the same time in a scheme to try and build an amount of excitement and giddiness from a Microsoft product(s) that has not been seen or rivaled since the release on Windows 95. While I could not blame them for doing something such as this, as from a marketing standpoint it is a no-brainer, I would be extremely irate as a Windows Mobile customer if this was the case. Then again, that is me just being completely paranoid. I doubt as a company Microsoft would be <em>that</em> cruel to their Windows Mobile customers and enthusiasts. <br /><br />Whew! I thought sitting around and twiddling our thumbs until 2009 was difficult, but 2010 is just downright torture. Come on Microsoft, throw us a bone! We can understand not wanting to tell us everything Windows Mobile will have baked into the OS when it is released, but it couldn't hurt too much to tell us why the heck it is taking so long to get this latest release out the door! Heck, right now I would settle for the ever so coy and awkward "<a href="http://www.smartphonethoughts.com/news/show/90507/the-adventures-of-jerry-and-bill-shoe-circus.html">adjusting of the shorts</a>" just to know that Microsoft hasn&rsquo;t forgotten about us!</p>

[Stinger]

That's surprisingly well informed and well written for a mainstream press article.

In my eyes, Windows Mobile's greatest asset is also its greatest hindrance- Microsoft. For example, look at the situation regarding web browsers. Microsoft's philosophical opposition to open source software stops the WinMo developers from using an existing and advanced rendering engine like WebKit. Microsoft is also the reason why they've got no choice but to use Internet Explorer, despite the whole world knowing how feeble IE 6 is.

The Windows Mobile team has its hands tied and can't compete properly.

[MAK11]

Well,first that not mainstream press at all is Om Malik from Giga OM!.
Second, lets see were he lifted that "Windows Moblie 7 in 2010 BS : Windows Mobile 7 phone release now seriously delayed — could be as late as 2010 VentureBeat (http://venturebeat.com/2008/09/26/windows-mobile-7-phone-release-now-seriously-delayed-could-be-as-late-as-2010/)
Venture Beat linking to Cnet and spinning the sorry a lit bit for more sensationalism.

So I'll just fill this under: Kinda useless article especially on the day he put up his HTC G1 review...

Just my IMO

[Joel Crane]

Might be picking up an iPod touch after all...

[Pony99CA]

I thought sitting around and twiddling our thumbs until 2009 was difficult, but 2010 is just downright torture.
I think that 2010 number is just a misunderstanding. If Microsoft were originally going to release WM 7 in early 2009, it probably would have taken 3-6 months for OEMs to ramp up and release devices, giving a device ship date in mid to late 2009.

Now, with a release date in mid to late 2009, which I think is what C|Net <i>et al</i> reported, that would obviously lead to device shipments in late 2009 to early 2010.

So 2010 doesn't sound like another delay, as some people seem to be taking it. It's just a logical consequence of not releasing the OS until later in 2009.

Come on Microsoft, throw us a bone!
They are. One of the articles mentioned WM 6.2, possibly coming later this year with the new IE 6-based browser.

We can understand not wanting to tell us everything Windows Mobile will have baked into the OS when it is released, but it couldn't hurt too much to tell us why the heck it is taking so long to get this latest release out the door!
Why would they do this? Do you air your personal problems in public? Worse, telling what the problems were could also give competitors an idea of what was coming, so they could try to get a jump on their response.

While I'd like explanation, too, I don't seriously expect one. Apple doesn't tend to pre-announce things, either.

Steve

[Rocco Augusto]

Why would they do this? Do you air your personal problems in public? Worse, telling what the problems were could also give competitors an idea of what was coming, so they could try to get a jump on their response.

This isn't a personal problem, this is something that effects millions of business customers world wide. As a business owner and a purchaser of Microsoft products, I expect Microsoft to keep us updated and to let us know why things are taking as long as they are. If Microsoft cannot be expected to do even that one little simple thing, how do they expect their customers to make educated decision on the upgrading or purchasing of new equipment?

If all we hear are rumors or a late 2009 to 2010 release, and Microsoft does nothing to either stop those rumors or let them get out of control, then that is just irresponsible on Microsoft's behalf, especially when the competition is releasing new and interesting devices left and right.

As I said before, I don't expect Microsoft to spill the beans about the whole operating system, but they can still come out and say "We're working to make it more awesome" or "We're rebuilding it from the ground up. Making it stronger and faster." These are things that a) keep your customers from jumping ship to something more readily available. b) shows those customers that you actually value them as customers.

While I'd like explanation, too, I don't seriously expect one. Apple doesn't tend to pre-announce things, either.

At this moment in time Apple isn't a viable option for businesses and their user base is mostly classified as consumer. The moment Apple's market starts teetering more towards catering to business customers, their attitudes towards updating their customer base will have to change. If not, they will have a lot of angry businesses on their hands.

No business owner that I know, myself included, likes to make snap decisions on matters that involve new electronics. In my personal life, sure, I buy a ton of junk I shouldn't all the time. And that is fine as a consumer, but the moment your business is involved you have to sit down and seriously consider how these things will affect your infrastructure. This is why Microsoft has events like PDC (PDC2008 Professional Developers Conference October 27-30, 2008 (http://microsoftpdc.com/)) so business partners and developers can make the necessary decisions about how to best utilize upcoming Microsoft products in the future.

[Rocco Augusto]

So I'll just fill this under: Kinda useless article especially on the day he put up his HTC G1 review...

It isn't really useless if you follow Microsoft's previous release patterns. From the time of announced software update, to the release of new devices, can take anywhere from 3-6 months.

If Microsoft doesn't announce Windows Mobile 7 until the later half of 2009, following their previous release cycle, we can expect to not have devices until 2010. Since Microsoft is being very closed lipped about everything, we can only speculate off their previous actions, which is what everyone is doing right now.

[BBF]

Any way MS spins the release of WM7 as being "on track" for a 2009 release doesn't matter. IMO WM7 would be late even if phones appeared magically with WM7 on them TODAY. Those phones would still be behind the iPhone and android based phones in customer facing features and UI/App/HW integration.

I'm disappointed at the laisez faire attitude MS is having towards the cell (smart) phone OS market when two major competitors (Apple and Google) have leapt in, Blackberry has surged, and when the overall non-phone PDA market which MS dominates has shrivelled to almost nothing.

It's as if MS just looked at Palm being their main competitor and once Palm self destructed, MS just rested on their laurels.

This is coming from an exclusively MS smartphone owner... the lure of the iPhone is taking a lot of effort to resist, especially after the addition of 3G, GPS, third party apps and activesync.

Call me a conspiracy nut, but the delay says "zunephone in 2009" to me. ;-) (Half in jest and half serious)
Microsoft has shown that they're willing to screw their partners already (most recently with the playsforsure vs. Zune thing).

[Rob Alexander]

As I said before, I don't expect Microsoft to spill the beans about the whole operating system, but they can still come out and say "We're working to make it more awesome" or "We're rebuilding it from the ground up. Making it stronger and faster." These are things that a) keep your customers from jumping ship to something more readily available. b) shows those customers that you actually value them as customers.


Well, my guess is that they don't say those things (awesome, ground up, stonger/faster) because they're not true. I'd be pretty skeptical about b) as well. My experience with new versions of WM is that they usually add one feature I like and 3 features I don't care about, then they take away 2 features I used to like and ignore at least 3 things we've all complained about for years. :( I am well past caring how long it takes them to get out the next version.

[Janak Parekh]

At this moment in time Apple isn't a viable option for businesses and their user base is mostly classified as consumer. The moment Apple's market starts teetering more towards catering to business customers, their attitudes towards updating their customer base will have to change. If not, they will have a lot of angry businesses on their hands. You've nailed this, and Apple's only slowly, reluctantly, changing their strategy in an effort to engage the business market. That said, Apple has been getting a bye as of late because they've been regularly releasing significant updates for the iPhone. There have been multiple major OS upgrades in the last 15 months.

I understand Microsoft is keeping coy to avoid Osborning their product, but given the intensified competition (not just from the iPhone or the G1, btw -- have you seen the PR blitz starting up about the Blackberry Storm, which looks damn cool?), they should somehow elaborate on their strategy to compete, even if it doesn't have precise timeframes.

--janak

[Pony99CA]

This isn't a personal problem, this is something that effects millions of business customers world wide.
Fair enough, but the article didn't say anything about this being a business-specific issue, so it's fair to look at it from a consumer point of view, too.

As a business owner and a purchaser of Microsoft products, I expect Microsoft to keep us updated and to let us know why things are taking as long as they are. If Microsoft cannot be expected to do even that one little simple thing, how do they expect their customers to make educated decision on the upgrading or purchasing of new equipment?
The same way anybody else does. You look at what's out there now and decide if it's worthwhile buying it now. If it's not, you wait. Sure some big businesses may get a heads-up from Microsoft, but I don't expect them to do that for everybody.

I think Microsoft's only real obligation is to support what they've released. Now, from a business perspective, marketing what's available also makes a lot of sense, but pre-announcing makes a lot less.

First, as Janak said, pre-announcing things can lead to the Osborne effect. You can lose current business while people wait for your next great thing.

Second, if you're very specific about what's coming, it gives competitors a leg up. If you aren't specific (which seems to be what you're advocating), your press releases get labelled as FUD.

If all we hear are rumors or a late 2009 to 2010 release, and Microsoft does nothing to either stop those rumors or let them get out of control, then that is just irresponsible on Microsoft's behalf, especially when the competition is releasing new and interesting devices left and right.

As I said before, I don't expect Microsoft to spill the beans about the whole operating system, but they can still come out and say "We're working to make it more awesome" or "We're rebuilding it from the ground up. Making it stronger and faster." These are things that a) keep your customers from jumping ship to something more readily available. b) shows those customers that you actually value them as customers.
I don't think those comments would help at all. People would label them as FUD and still complain that WM 7 is taking too long (because it is). As you mentioned business planning for purchases, would those statements really affect any purchasing decision you were considering today?

This is why Microsoft has events like PDC (PDC2008 Professional Developers Conference October 27-30, 2008 (http://microsoftpdc.com/)) so business partners and developers can make the necessary decisions about how to best utilize upcoming Microsoft products in the future.
That conference is for developers, though. Developers need to be in the loop to develop software so that when Microsoft does release their next OS, software is compatible with it.

This article deals with a similar thing. Microsoft is (supposedly) telling OEMs the OS will be released later. They're Microsoft's partners (not just clients) and have a real business need to know that information.

End users don't have the same needs. Somebody purchasing handsets today doesn't need to know what's going to come out in 2010, much less why it will take that long.

I attended a small business seminar from Microsoft for "partners" and watched some online small business presentations in the past. As far as I can recall, they dealt with shipping products (or maybe products that were just about to ship). WM 7 doesn't appear to fit in those categories.

There are plenty of very good Windows Mobile handsets out there today to pick from; why would Microsoft risk people not buying those by giving information about WM 7 so far in advance? They're a business, too, and I don't think it makes business sense to do that.

Steve

[Pony99CA]

My experience with new versions of WM is that they usually add one feature I like and 3 features I don't care about, then they take away 2 features I used to like and ignore at least 3 things we've all complained about for years.
Yep, and that's probably the best summary of WM releases I've seen. :)

Steve

[Rocco Augusto]

Fair enough, but the article didn't say anything about this being a business-specific issue, so it's fair to look at it from a consumer point of view, too.

True but Microsoft markets their operating systems to businesses so they don't get the same luxuries that companies as Google or Apple would get.

I don't think those comments would help at all. People would label them as FUD and still complain that WM 7 is taking too long (because it is). As you mentioned business planning for purchases, would those statements really affect any purchasing decision you were considering today?

It could if a company was looking to update their phones and all they were hearing about were the new Google and Blackberry products. This is a crucial point in the year when a lot of businesses update their old handsets or more to a different carrier. Now more than ever Microsoft has to stay relevant in their eyes and why Windows Mobile 6.1 is nice, its no where near up to snuff with the slew of new choices that have came out all of a sudden.

That conference is for developers, though. Developers need to be in the loop to develop software so that when Microsoft does release their next OS, software is compatible with it.

They say developers but a fair amount of reporters will be there and everyone has their ear to the ground to find out what to expect in the next couple years. Who knows, there might even be some Windows Mobile 7 news there which is what I'm secretly hoping for.

End users don't have the same needs. Somebody purchasing handsets today doesn't need to know what's going to come out in 2010, much less why it will take that long.

When you invest in a smartphone (Windows Mobile or otherwise) you are investing in a platform. I would like to know that Microsoft has its head in the game and I am not investing more time and money into a platform they are might one day just decide to abandon (worse case scenario.) That is just me though.

[Paragon]

My experience with new versions of WM is that they usually add one feature I like and 3 features I don't care about, then they take away 2 features I used to like and ignore at least 3 things we've all complained about for years. :( I am well past caring how long it takes them to get out the next version.

Well said Rob!

As for MS spilling the beans about what they are working on now to combat advances made by RIM, Apple and Google...it really doesn't factor in since WM7 isn't competing against any of they. It will be competing against their next generation, or maybe even their second generation from now. It is only fitting that they would build the marketing hype as they get closer to launch and can relate to what is in the market then, not now.

Dave

[jadesse]

Look how long it took for WM6 from its release & the time for device to start shipping with it. It will be more like 2011 before it gets a good foot hold in the market place.

[Kirkaiya]

I've been using WinMo (in its various incarnations) since Windows CE 2.1, some ten years ago. My last three phones (including my current Touch Diamond) are all WM. HTC, bless their clever hearts, has put TouchFlo 3D over (most of) WM on the Diamond, which makes it much much easier to use.

My issue is this: How is it that HTC, a gnat to Microsoft's elephant, can rapidly (well, over the course of a year or two) develop a shell that improves the WM experience dramatically, while Microsoft cannot?

I know that rewriting some of the guts is a lot harder and more time-consuming than creating TouchFlo 3D is - but Microsoft has far and away more programmers, more money, more experience in-house. It boggles my mind that there could be a 2.5 year gap between major updates of their mobile OS, when (as others have pointed out) Apple, RIM and Google are now all competing, and increasing their market share.

WM7 may be the bee's knees, but Vista it ain't. The whole OS would fit inside of a single hotfix for Vista (of which there are oodles). In my opinion, Microsoft is failing to execute on plans to deliver an improved, smoother, faster mobile experience.

Maybe the executive shuffle is in response to this - and I hope that the new WM chief will actually deliver something that's best-in-class before 2009 is over. If not, Apple, RIM and Google will all be there with shiny, slick, and poweful alternatives.

[Janak Parekh]

I know that rewriting some of the guts is a lot harder and more time-consuming than creating TouchFlo 3D is - but Microsoft has far and away more programmers, more money, more experience in-house. Well, as an aggregate company, yes. But do we know how many developers they have? I never had exact numbers as a MVP, but it seemed like a fairly small team, all of whom seemed to be working hard towards delivering solutions.

Maybe the executive shuffle is in response to this - and I hope that the new WM chief will actually deliver something that's best-in-class before 2009 is over. If not, Apple, RIM and Google will all be there with shiny, slick, and poweful alternatives. Agreed. I get the feeling that Apple and RIM, at least, will have evolved at least one more time; the two of them have really shifted their development into the next gear. RIM, in particular, is rather astonishing; look at how fast they developed a touch product and brought it to market! Early reports also suggest the Storm's touch UI is excellent.

--janak

[caywen]

Rather than Microsoft delaying because they are reengineering from the ground up, I think it's quite the opposite. I think they are probably gunning for complete backwards compatibility, and need the extra year to figure out how to marry their new display system with current products based on GDI and outdated API's. Microsoft has almost never been so brave as to break compatibility. They would rather make everyone (including developers) wait for a behemoth OS that tries to be all things to all people instead of giving people early access and developers an early opportunity to make the code changes they would actually be happy to make.

In other words, my theory is that they just don't get it anymore. I think Microsoft truly believes WinMo developers will stay loyal to their platform for another 1.5 years. In that time, we'll see 2nd gen Android, and 4th gen iPhone, and Microsoft will be left wondering where all their devs went.

[nmcclana]

All I know is the iPhone & bold look pretty cool. My contract just expired & the non-winmo phones are looking very attractive.

I meant to ask a week ago, when this story was posted, what developers felt about the announcement, but it looks like I already see the answer.

[Pony99CA]

True but Microsoft markets their operating systems to businesses so they don't get the same luxuries that companies as Google or Apple would get.
But Apple is marketing to businesses. Remember on iPhone 3g launch day how they had businesses lined up?

Google may not be marketing to businesses (yet), but Apple is.

It could if a company was looking to update their phones and all they were hearing about were the new Google and Blackberry products. This is a crucial point in the year when a lot of businesses update their old handsets or more to a different carrier. Now more than ever Microsoft has to stay relevant in their eyes and why Windows Mobile 6.1 is nice, its no where near up to snuff with the slew of new choices that have came out all of a sudden.
But, if a business already has a WM infrastructure (like Exchange and especially applications), they're not likely to jump platforms due to the inertia.

Microsoft shouldn't count on that for very long, of course, but it might work for the short term.

When you invest in a smartphone (Windows Mobile or otherwise) you are investing in a platform. I would like to know that Microsoft has its head in the game and I am not investing more time and money into a platform they are might one day just decide to abandon (worse case scenario.) That is just me though.
Your comment about investing in a platform just proves my above point.

And, of course, there's never a guarantee that Microsoft won't pull the plug next release even if they say something about this release. However, Windows CE/Pocket PC/Windows Mobile has been around 10 years now, so it's not likely they're going away in the near future. Even if it does get killed off tomorrow, your phone will keep working, doing what you bought it to do (until the hardware dies).

Even Palm, who hasn't really updated their OS in years, can still sell Centros.... ;)

I agree that Microsoft should try to remain relevant, but empty statements like "We're making it awesome" won't help, and I don't think Microsoft owes us details.

I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree. :)

Steve

[Pony99CA]

My issue is this: How is it that HTC, a gnat to Microsoft's elephant, can rapidly (well, over the course of a year or two) develop a shell that improves the WM experience dramatically, while Microsoft cannot?

I know that rewriting some of the guts is a lot harder and more time-consuming than creating TouchFlo 3D is - but Microsoft has far and away more programmers, more money, more experience in-house.
Besides what Janak said, there are at least three other issues.

HTC only has to worry about compatibility on their devices running one (maybe two) OS versions. Apple and RIM have the same advantages.
As caywen pointed out, Microsoft is probably trying to keep as much backward compatibility as possible. They want OEMs to upgrade users and they want users' software to keep working.
HTC is smaller and can be more nimble.

And, while Microsoft likely has more experience, remember that HTC has been doing Windows Mobile at least since the Pocket PC 2000 days (with the iPAQ h3600 series). So they have lots of experience, too.

Companies like VITO (with Winterface) and Spb (with Mobile Shell) are doing the same thing, too, I think.

Steve

[Torque]

Microsoft has until August 2009 to convince me via their products, why I should buy another Windows Mobile product. I'm with AT&T and while the third gen iPhone looks good, if they offer a replaceable battery and add what the iPhone is missing (cut and paste, java support, etc) I may jump ship to them. I'm already attracted to the Blackberry. If I can find one that will sync with Outlook I'm done and that's it.

[Kirkaiya]

Besides what Janak said, there are at least three other issues.

HTC only has to worry about compatibility on their devices running one (maybe two) OS versions. Apple and RIM have the same advantages.

HTC has almost exactly 1/10th the number of employees as Microsoft, and many of them are in their hardware design areas. They managed, with a relatively small team, to be the first OEM to put an Android handset out the door. While WinMo is certainly a small part of Microsoft given the company's focus on Windows (desktop/server) and Office applications businesses, the fact remains that Microsoft could have developed a better user interface at some point over the past 18 months.

And while HTC only needs to worry about TouchFLO on two classes of device (WM5 "Touch" devices, and the WM6.1 Diamond/HD/Pro phones), Micrsoft has the incredible advantage of owning the source-code and being able to modify it. I was a contract programmer at Microsoft for almost three years, when XP was publicaly launched, and saw early "Longhorn" betas running internally. Back then, it made sense to pour the vast bulk of OS development into desktops and servers.

Now, however, the fastest growth market is mobile "smartphone" computers. They're growing at double-digit rates, and will surpass sales of PCs and notebooks in a few years - and if Micrsoft doesn't want to miss out on that, they should be pouring some of that cash-hoarde they've amassed into a better mobile experience.

Maybe the move to x86 smartphones (which I think is inevitable (http://blog.hackingbangkok.com/2008/11/inevitability-of-x86x64-smartphones.html)) will save them, or possibly the NVidia "Tegra" devices will take off. None of us know - but I do know that the clock is ticking down, and Apple and RIM are in 5th gear, Google's Android is a relative newcomer but they too have deep pockets, and WM seems to be coasting along in 2nd, whistling past the graveyard.


2. HTC is smaller and can be more nimble.

I'd suggest Microsoft teach the elephant to dance, a la IBM.

I'm quite aware of HTC's experience (I've owned multiple HTC WinMo devices stretching back a decade). That doesnt' excuse Microsoft's seeming flailing in the face of stiff competition.

Mark my words - either WM 7 is revolutionary, and arrives before the end of Q3 2009, or Windows Mobile's share of the smartphone market drop into the single digits from the ~14% or so they have now.

[Pony99CA]

HTC has almost exactly 1/10th the number of employees as Microsoft, and many of them are in their hardware design areas. They managed, with a relatively small team, to be the first OEM to put an Android handset out the door. While WinMo is certainly a small part of Microsoft given the company's focus on Windows (desktop/server) and Office applications businesses, the fact remains that Microsoft could have developed a better user interface at some point over the past 18 months.
Yes, they probably could have.

I'm quite aware of HTC's experience (I've owned multiple HTC WinMo devices stretching back a decade). That doesnt' excuse Microsoft's seeming flailing in the face of stiff competition.
I didn't say that it excused anything. You asked how HTC could do something, and we offered explanations. You may not like those explanations (I know that I don't and I suspect very few people do), but that's a different issue.

For example, a smaller company like HTC probably doesn't need to get approvals for a project from 8 levels of management (or whatever Microsoft requires). That makes them more nimble. Yes, Microsoft could delegate approval down the line, but then maybe the left hand wouldn't know what the right hand was doing, leading to a mixed and confusing strategy. It's a balancing act.

Steve