Fuel Prices, Possible BLockades (UK)

[MonkeyMera]

I know there is a thread about fuel prices but i felt that its a bit hidden for someone who hasnt read the whole thread so i felt to start a new one. it also has a link to a forum thats discussing the problems with the price of feul, its a relativly new forum (1st member 5th june 2005) i think people should join to show support for the cause or the price of fuel will keep rising and the amount of tax will also.

http://fuel-crisis.org.uk/

http://www.fueltaxprotest.co.uk/

Edit: they say the forum is down but its not

[kaitanium]

fuel prices rose 50 cents here in the states this past weekend....its crazy. but i should be complaining because i saw that people in Amsterdam, Netherlands are paying close to $7 a gal

[Jason Dunn]

It's interesting - I'm in Canada, and along with the US we pay less for gas than people in Europe....but it's still shocking as hell to see $1.30 CAN at the pumps! Part of me is happy to see it happen though - there are WAY too many huge gas-guzzling vehicles on the road where I live, and hopefully this will push people towards smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles...and push the car makers for more hybrid vehicles. Things have to change.

[Duncan]

I know there is a thread about fuel prices but i felt that its a bit hidden for someone who hasnt read the whole thread so i felt to start a new one. it also has a link to a forum thats discussing the problems with the price of feul, its a relativly new forum (1st member 5th june 2005) i think people should join to show support for the cause or the price of fuel will keep rising and the amount of tax will also.

Right. Not sure I can bring myself to care about petrol price rises - mainly as (whisper it quietly) I can't see it as a bad thing - but it is worth pointing out that it is the fuel companies that are responsible for raising the price - not governments. The percentage of the price you pay that is tax in the UK has actually been going down.

Here's the deal - think things are bad now? This is nothing. Oil is rapidly running out. The very best, most optimistic figures give us c. 50 years. More recent figures, based on a re-evaluation of some very dodgy accounting from the UAE etc., estimates 10 - 15 years. That's right - we may only have 10 - 15 years of oil left in the world...! That doesn't take into account the results of any Middle Eastern 'problems'. [edited to add - this refers to the 'peak' production point - after which there *will* be oil still - but rapidly dwindling, very expensive and precious little petrol]

The situation isn't made any better by petrol in the US being so absurdly cheap that people drive too much, have cars that are over big and over powerful and get around half the mpg that European and Japanese cars get. As such big price rises all round are a good thing - but especially in the US where petrol is being used like it's water, like it's going to last forever. Sorry about the hit to the pocket guys - but this is only a taste of the future.

Petrol is going to get more and more expensive, for everyone. Dwindling resources mean bigger premiums. Hybrid cars, more efficient cars, smaller cars, public transport, car sharing, bike riding etc. - these will have to be adopted - you won't have much choice if you want to afford anything else. Maybe, just maybe, the current oil reserves can be eked out. Possibly the Arctic reserves can be tapped without massive environmental desecration (unlikely). Perhaps another source of oil fields will be found (extremely unlikely). In the end though the immediate future will see petrol getting more and more expensive (the US and Canada will likely meet the European prices - assuming the static fuel duties remain the same, which I would lay odds they will, and the overall tax element continues to fall).

It is astonishing how few people are aware of how little oil remains. I remember first studying this back in school nearly 20 years ago...!

[Jason Dunn]

It is astonishing how few people are aware of how little oil remains. I remember first studying this back in school nearly 20 years ago...!

Just to play a little devil's advocate here, that's exactly the problem - they've been saying for 20+ years that we have "just a few years left"...which makes it hard for anyone to actually believe. :?

[Duncan]

It is astonishing how few people are aware of how little oil remains. I remember first studying this back in school nearly 20 years ago...!

Just to play a little devil's advocate here, that's exactly the problem - they've been saying for 20+ years that we have "just a few years left"...which makes it hard for anyone to actually believe. :?

Ah but - they've gone from saying c. 2070 to saying c. 2050 to now saying 2015 - 2020. All the while the estimated total remaining barrels has actually increased - but actual usage has outstripped every estimate. Plus a number of optimistic predictions about new oil fields have proved to be red herrings and figures put out by major oil producers (including the big two - UAE and Kuwait - with Iraq's figures looking equally dodgy, the inevitable major civil war notwithstanding) have been found to be somewhat inaccurate. Not to mention some high profile oil company heads who have lost their jobs for over-estimating.

In other words - sure they've been saying 'a few years' for a while - but over time the predictions have been getting more and more based on known facts rather than estimates (20 years ago we believed there were huge deposits in certain places that have turned out not to be there).

I mean you're right - they may yet find more oil, the estimates may yet prove to be out, but it isn't looking good. Prices will go up based on these predictions, and they won't go down even if proven wrong.

There are some oddballs who talk about 'unconventional oil' (hard to process oil of the type that Canada's got quite a lot of...! ;)). Frankly though it is absurdly expensive to process and use and tends to be the last refuge of people who, for political reasons, want to believe that we aren't so dependent on the Middle East.

I honestly don't see this as a cause for worry though. People will be forced to conserve petrol - this is a good thing. Companies will be forced to develop more hybrid cars and new techs - this too is a good thing. Best news of all - less oil consumption means less CO2. Global warming gets slowed right down (or even reversed) without us having to do nearly as much as expected. All seems good to me.

The power balance will shift - no more black gold means less power for the Middle Eastern potentates (who have already had the good sense to invest in emerging technologies - so they won't mind too much).

Pollution will decrease in cities, public transport may yet become the efficient social resource it has often threatened to be.

The other side of the coin, of course, is that manufacturers and politicians may just stick their fingers in their ears and hope it all goes away...! ;)

I have to point out that a civil war in Iraq (third biggest reserves in the world) will make things much worse as a lot of people are gambling on their availability very soon (I'll avoid the obvious comments about 'convenient events'...! ;)) after a period when Iraqi oil has been hard to get hold of.

[Darius Wey]

So fuel prices have jumped to A$1.40/L here, and the rush to buy cheap petrol has turned a little insane. Yesterday, one of the stations I pass was selling petrol for around A$1.20/L, and a queue of cars stretching a few hundred metres down a two-lane road could be seen - all to take advantage of this somewhat cheap deal.

I missed the news last night, but apparently, the police had to be called in to restore order in the traffic.

[gwinter]

Part of me is happy to see it happen though - there are WAY too many huge gas-guzzling vehicles on the road where I live, and hopefully this will push people towards smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles...and push the car makers for more hybrid vehicles.

Sometimes I wonder about this. A friend of mine is so worked up, he said that the best thing that can happen is for oil supply to run out tomorrow. But while we focus on gas usage on vehicles, let us not forget that petroleum is also the raw material for many other things that we heavily depend on. Plastics, for example.

[Duncan]

Part of me is happy to see it happen though - there are WAY too many huge gas-guzzling vehicles on the road where I live, and hopefully this will push people towards smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles...and push the car makers for more hybrid vehicles.

Sometimes I wonder about this. A friend of mine is so worked up, he said that the best thing that can happen is for oil supply to run out tomorrow. But while we focus on gas usage on vehicles, let us not forget that petroleum is also the raw material for many other things that we heavily depend on. Plastics, for example.

Not an issue. Putting aside that we can create plastic from other materials, there will still be vast resources of oil that is unsuitable for refining into petrol but still usable for plastics and other applications. It's only the 'conventional' stocks that are going. Canada alone has billions of barrels worth of 'uncoventional' oil of this type - and since it won't be used at the same rate as petrol is, it will last us well into the 2200s at least.