Worldwide PDA Sales Up Sharply

[Ed Hansberry]

<a href="http://www.pcworld.com/news/article/0,aid,120698,00.asp">http://www.pcworld.com/news/article/0,aid,120698,00.asp</a><br /><br /><i>"Worldwide PDA sales during the first quarter totaled 3.4 million units, compared to sales of 2.7 million during the same period last year, Gartner says. The 25-percent gain in shipments was the largest ever percentage gain for PDA sales during the first quarter, it says, noting that it did not count sales of smart phones, such as PalmOne's Treo 650."</i><br /><br />It irritates me this line has been drawn that doesn't count a Treo as a PDA but rather as a smartphone. That is what pa1mOne calls it though, so I guess they want it classifed that way. :roll: <br /><br /><img src="http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/images/hansberry/2005/20050505-worldwideq1pda.gif" /><br /><br /><i><b>"On the software side, Microsoft's Windows CE operating system was the top PDA operating system during the first quarter, with a 46-percent share of the market."</b></i> I need to dig up some posts that said MS would never surpass Palm's operating system. :devilboy:<br /><br /><span style="color:red">Update:</span> <a href="http://www.enn.ie/news.html?code=9605015">This article</a> has an interesting quote. "We expect that palmOne will be adding other operating systems and setting more of its own direction, while PalmSource is redirecting itself toward Linux and smartphones." That Windows Mobile powered Treo can't be too far behind. :mrgreen:

[rlobrecht]

So they aren't including Smartphones like the Treo, but in the next paragraph they say
PDAs with integrated WLAN (wireless LAN) and cell-phone capabilities accounted for around 55 percent of all PDAs shipped during the first quarter, Gartner says. I wonder what they've really included. Obviously Pocket PC Phone Editions, but what about MS Smartphones? Is the chart above actually from the Gartner report? If so they've included Symbian (which as far as I know is only used in Smartphones.) Strange way to twist the numbers.

[Foo Fighter]

The title is misleading. Blackberry sales are driving overall PDA sales up, not Pocket PC or Palm devices (especially not the latter). With Tapwave pulling out of the device market, things are not looking good for PalmOS right now. Treo is the only real success story.

[Ed Hansberry]

The title is misleading. Blackberry sales are driving overall PDA sales up, not Pocket PC or Palm devices (especially not the latter). With Tapwave pulling out of the device market, things are not looking good for PalmOS right now. Treo is the only real success story.
RIM drove units up around 300,000 over the same quarter last year.
MS drove uints up around 475,000 over the same quarter last year.

RIM is a worthly contender to be sure, but MS drove the gain more than any other platform.

[applejosh]

I'd like to see a report for any device resembling a PDA. If it can do calendar, todo's, and tasks, then I want it in the report (including those cheap wizard knock-offs that sell at WalMart for $10). The numbers do seem twisted a little if the Treo isn't included as a PDA, considering that seems to be where PalmOne is focusing their attention. But on the other side, I'd like to see MS Smartphones included, too. If the PDA market is in a state of convergence, then we should include it all. I want the full scoop, not data that's been massaged in any way.

Lies, damn lies, and statistics.
:wink:

[surur]

Canalys gives you the numbers you asking for. They include ALL handheld devices. Based on that Win Ce is shipping near double what Palm OS is shipping (1 976970 vs 1 131310)


Surur

[twalk]

Lies, damn lies, and statistics.
:wink:

Exactly. Besides, with all the PPC vs Palm stuff around here, you'd actually think that those 2 would be in the race or something. Considering how sales of Symbian, and especially j2me, cell phones have done, well... there are already some analysts (not named Gartner) ready to call victory for Nokia.


These numbers really tell you a heck of a lot less than you might think. Without knowing the reasons behind the numbers, it's really hard to extrapolate from them.

For example, take in these 2 facts. Roughly 80% of P1's sales are in the US. Western European PDA sales grew over 80% in Q1. Most of those sales are WM PDAs. So WM is kicking PalmOS's a-- then, right? Not really any more than it was already. WM was already pretty strong in Europe. PalmOS was practicaly non-existant. ie, the WM surge was mostly a regional thing, and didn't change things much if at all in the rest of the world. (That being said, that's one heck of a surge.)

The other thing about P1's numbers, is that much of their PDA revenue now comes from upgrade sales. Their new devices just came out last month, and the big one is expected this month. If Q2's numbers look bad, then you can start writing the obituaries.

RIM is an interesting one. Much of their growth actually comes from replacing WM in businesses. WM is typically driven by IT departments, while RIM sales are usually driven by executives. Guess which one wins out? (Treo sales are mostly unaffected, because most of them are upgrade sales from Palm PDAs.) Like P1, much of their growth is in the US.

With RIM &amp; PalmOS being so strong in the US, WM needed a big sales surge in Europe to take the lead, and got it. Whether WM can hold it or not depends on how well they hold out against Nokia.

As a developer, I'm still in the same boat I was before. I still need to figure out what part of the world the product I'm working on is targeted at, then target the leading platforms there. Worldwide sales numbers don't do a thing for helping me figure that out.

Todd

[huangzhinong]

If Q2's numbers look bad, then you can start writing the obituaries.

If you followed those numbers for the last two years, you should know the trend of POS declining didn't changed no matter how many new devices P1 released.

[surur]

As a developer, I'm still in the same boat I was before. I still need to figure out what part of the world the product I'm working on is targeted at, then target the leading platforms there. Worldwide sales numbers don't do a thing for helping me figure that out.

Todd

What kind of software do you write? Most people buy software worldwide.

Surur

[twalk]

As a developer, I'm still in the same boat I was before. I still need to figure out what part of the world the product I'm working on is targeted at, then target the leading platforms there. Worldwide sales numbers don't do a thing for helping me figure that out.

Todd

What kind of software do you write? Most people buy software worldwide.

Surur


Most people don't realize that something like 80-90% of all PDA development is custom business software of one sort or another (which is where I make almost enough money to live on...). On PCs it's even higher, in the 90's. Most people look at the shrinkware, and think that's most of the market. By doing so, they're missing most of what's going on.

I also only write software in English, which does limit my reach of what countries I can hit. (ie, mostly US.)

I work with PPCs and Palms right now. RIM caught me flat footed, I've lost work now because of not knowing how to develop on their platform. I now see more and more companies saying that they want to explore a j2me solution first, because most of their employees already carry a j2me capable cell phone... (I've just started learning j2me. Losing more potential work...)

I personally would kind of like to see PalmOS stick around. But from a cold hard business viewpoint, them dying would mean one less platform I'd have to support, and make life easier for me.

Todd

[twalk]

If Q2's numbers look bad, then you can start writing the obituaries.

If you followed those numbers for the last two years, you should know the trend of POS declining didn't changed no matter how many new devices P1 released.

About all of the recent decline wasn't P1 shipping less devices, it was Sony exiting the market. It wasn't that long ago that Sony had 15%+ of the entire PDA market. That's a big chunk. (Bigger than Dell has.)

From what I've seen, long term it won't matter much. PalmOS will have a niche in the US market, WM will have a niche in both the US and Europe. Symbian will have a nice chunk of the cell phone market. And China and India will mostly go with dirt-cheap Linux cell phones and swamp the rest of the world market with them. (That's nearly 1/2 the world's population...)

I'd like to see both WM &amp; PalmOS come out ahead. They're what I develop on, they're what I know. But I need to make business decisions for the future, not emotional decisions.

Todd

[jimski]

So much for the demise of the Pocket PC or PDA's in general. :alfdance:

[whydidnt]

Since these numbers don't include Treo sales, it's really hard to tell how much market share POS is losing or gaining. Let's be honest, it's obvious that the 600/650 has cannabalized a huge chunk of P1's sales. Any comparison in market share should really include those devices, especially when we see both RIM, and Symbian devices in these numbers.

Excluding the Treo makes about as much sense as including Symbian phones in this report - I don't know of anyone who actually uses a Symbian device just as a PDA, not a phone.