Pocket Factory Predictions For 2005

[Ed Hansberry]

<a href="http://www.pocketfactory.com/archives/2005/01/predictions_for_1.php">http://www.pocketfactory.com/archives/2005/01/predictions_for_1.php</a><br /><br /><i>"The PDA market continues its onward declining trend. What’s happening to cause this trend is not just the migration from PDAs to Smartphones; but also the fact that there are few revue opportunities left in this market. Simply put; you can't make money selling handhelds. Competition and declining price expectations have forced vendors to cut margins to the bone. And the only way to make money on PDAs is to sell in massive volumes; which is never going to happen considering PDAs are a niche product category. If the handheld market had the scale and robustness of the mobile phone sector, everyone would be rolling in profit. Not so."</i><br /><br />A bit doom and gloomish. In my opinion, PDAs were never going to take over any market in a pure PDA form. It was always about connectivity. The number one reason I purchased a Nino 320 many years ago was it had a tiny modem you could clip to the bottom. :D The PDA utility is firmly entrenched in phones now and the need or usefulness of a disconnected PDA is rapidly approaching zero, but you'll be hard pressed to find any phone (carrier freebies excepted) that don't have the core PDA functionality that made the original Palm Pilot such a hit and many phones have much more. I don't know what my iMATE PDA2K is. Is it a phone? Is it a PDA? Who cares? Whatever it is, it is invaluable to me. Perhaps it is all a game in semantics. In 4 years, the PDA will be declared dead yet there won't be a single mobile device being sold that can't rival today's functionality.

[Jimmy Dodd]

This claim that PDAs are dying always annoys me. If PDA stands for Personal Digital Assistant then a SmartPhone is a PDA. I wish we could get over this connected/connectionless semantic and move on.

[lorettaboy]

Honestly, how long have people been predicting the death of the PDA? In my opinion, the PDA will never die. It will only change. You cant just add a cellular raido to a PDA, and then declare PDA's dead/ or a thing of the past. A Smartphone is more PDA than it is phone in the first place. If anything, it is the basic cell phone that is dead nowadays.

Companies like HP and Dell can add cellular capabilities to PDA's all they want. But I for one want to see airtime prices go down before I could consider singing up for a plan. I had a cell phone 4 years ago, but could not afford the monthy bill in addition to my land line. I recently wanted to purchase a cell again, but upon looking, found that the rates are the same they were 4 years ago! (I am Canadian, but perhaps prices have declined in the States?)

Sorry for the rant, but until monthy cell rates decline, a cellular raido on a PDA, will just be an unused feature for me.

[Sedwo]

I'm more optimist then you Ed. I believe that the PDA, and more correctly, HandHeld Computer, will progress to become the future form factor and main computer. The clunky, old desktop box will fade away, and mobility (with connectivity ofcourse) will be the driving force of change. If you haven't noticed yet, people don't really enjoy being chained to their desk.

The VGA screens and growing accessories for the PDA market only expand its potential. And I don't see businesses moving away from it.

[Foo Fighter]

Traditional PDAs are dead, end of discussion. The market is commoditized, and few companies are investing in this space anymore. It surprises me that there any actually thinks otherwise. Mobile technology from this point on will focus on wireless. There will always be room for products like the Axim X50v, but that market will be small. The mobile device market from here on out is going to become segmented. No one form factor will win out.

[Paragon]

that don't have the core PDA functionality that made the original Palm Pilot such a hit

Wait!....Wait!....Wait! Stop the presses! Yes that was actually Ed Hansberry who used these exact words..... "made the original Palm Pilot such a hit"

:jawdrop:

[CTSLICK]

I don't figure I lost with my PDA...it was just the best thing at the time. I've been using a PDA in some fashion for around 6 years. I figure thats a pretty good run in an emerging market. I think I might see some "smartphones" that could fill the bill for me this year. Just the next evolution.

Question: How do you define smartphone...does that include converged devices that are running the "full up" version of Windows Mobile versus just the smartphone variant? Several allude to it here...this seems more about semantics than anything else.

The real problem for me is that my choices for a converged device or smartphone or super PDA or whatever you want to call it are tied to my cell phone provider. Its a pain in the a$$ and severely limits my ability to move to a new device.

[Paragon]

Question: How do you define smartphone...does that include converged devices that are running the "full up" version of Windows Mobile versus just the smartphone variant? Several allude to it here...this seems more about semantics than anything else.

The real problem for me is that my choices for a converged device or smartphone or super PDA or whatever you want to call it are tied to my cell phone provider. Its a pain in the a$$ and severely limits my ability to move to a new device.

Generally speaking from a hardware standpoint Smartphones do NOT have a touch screen, and the screens are smaller. Because of that Windows Mobile differs somewhat on the two devices.

A converged device does not have to tie you to a single carrier if you use a GSM device. You can usually buy them unlocked and put in your SIM card of choice.

Dave

[axe]

My take on the PDA market is not from a Organizer point of view or a media player, or a connected device... The fact is the PPC is ALL of these, and I fits in my hand. A laptop is great and is a desktop replacement, however my PPC is much easier to lug around :wink: . With all the software choices out there, I can support windows boxes, Unix boxes, listen to music and read books, among other things right from the PPC.
For a support person like myself, the connected PDA is invaluable, and I don't even have a cellular connection (only Wifi)! The catch to all this is I have the ability to be always connected. Not such a good thing, but it really is when someone needs help.

I am a real fan of the technology and hope that the big players continue to innovate, and keep the pricing competitive, otherwise that might spell the end of the technology - price, not functionality.

AXE

[CTSLICK]

Generally speaking from a hardware standpoint Smartphones do NOT have a touch screen, and the screens are smaller. Because of that Windows Mobile differs somewhat on the two devices.

Right...I get that...you get that...most of the people here get that...but I do not believe all of the pundits and analyst are playing by these rules when the start bantering about the smarthphone market. I think they regularly mixed the two when they talk statistics, marketshare and predictions. So I guess my question should have been more directed at the author...how was he defining this relative to his commentary. :)


A converged device does not have to tie you to a single carrier if you use a GSM device. You can usually buy them unlocked and put in your SIM card of choice.

IF you use GSM which is not a very good option in my part of the country. So I am stuck with Sprint for right now. And unlocked converged devices are still prohibitively expensive for me. But I continue to hold out hope that the stars will align and I'll get a shot at something good.

[Paragon]

Right...I get that...you get that...most of the people here get that....

My bad! I wondered why someone like you wouldn't know the difference. It was my feeble mind that totally missed what you were saying. :idea:

[whydidnt]

:D
Move along folks, nothing new to see here.... :wink:

Seems I read very similar predictions at the start of 2004. I guess not much has changed. We can all agree that convergence is occuring, but after that it's all semantics - is it a phone with a built in PDA or a PDA with a built in phone.

Some of these "Predictions" are a given. Haven't we all heard previously that WM 2005 is going to provide easy one handed operation, like a phone?

I placed an order yesterday for a 2nd battery, athumboard and 3 spare stylus at HP.Com for the HX4700. As I happily plunked down my $140.00+ for this package I thought "so this is where the PDA manufacturers make all their money?" My prediction is that we'll still see PDA's but they'll be marketed as loss leaders (like Dell has done in the past) for the real money which is made in accessories. Sadly this is why we still have proprietary connectors.

BTW - hpshopping.com is FAST. I ordered for overnight delivery at about 10:00 last night and the package showed up at about 9:00 this morning. FedEx must be warehousing this stuff for them in TN.

[surur]

I believe pocketfactory plays on both sides of the palm/pocketpc device. The fact is that palm is shrinking, but pocketpc is growing, keeping the market near constant.

Secondarily, the pda field is small only by conscious decision of the OEM's. If you look at the run-away success of the ipod, which contain similar hardware as a pocketpc, and has no greater functionality, its clear that the OEM's and microsoft just decided not to address the mass market. If they really wanted to, they could create a real media player etc, and no-one would even have to know you are running a pda.

I feel the real problem problem is the competition between pocketpc and windows xp, and handhelds and desktops. The OEM's have more to lose from the overwhelming success of pocketpc's than its failure. Thats the real danger to the platform.

Surur

[CTSLICK]

Right...I get that...you get that...most of the people here get that....

My bad! I wondered why someone like you wouldn't know the difference. It was my feeble mind that totally missed what you were saying. :idea:

I doubt it was your feeble mind...more like my feeble attempt to communicate :oops: :wink:

[Tye]

I have to agree with CTSlick 100% on this one.
GSM is not an option. Cost is prohibitive. In addition, none of the converged devices can compete with my 4700 for the features that matter to me.

I'm getting ready to upgrade my phone. That will only cost me about $200. If I had to upgrade the PDA everytime too... Ouch!

[surur]

I must say, looking at Foo's predictions for 2004, probably less than 30% came true (and these were the vague ones) At least Foo was brave enough to make specific predictions, but these were mostly wrong.

BTW, dont make the mistake of equating the PDA market with the USA. I understand FSC is very happy with sales of the Loox. They have not made the mistake to go downmarket yet, so Im sure their margins (and the reward for a good product) will keep them in the market.

A solution to the "All devices are pocketpc phones, but this makes them expensive" is a GSM module, maybe in the CF slot, that actually turns it into a proper phone, not the poor solution that current CF GSM cards are. And it would not add to the size of the unit either.

On the other hand, the added cost of GSM hardware is widely exaggerated. Im sure the appropriate radios and added hardware wont actually cost more than $30 (based on the cost of the most basic pay as you go phones). In the end (accept for profiteering) it may only add $50 to the cost of the device. (similar to bluetooth)

Surur

[Jason Lee]

All i know is conectivity is a wonderful thing. It was a very nice day here today and i was stuck in my office rebuilding a computer... :( Well I got xp installed enabled remote desktop and took my siemens sx66 out for a walk. I stoped at a table outside the student union and turned on the wireless. I opened pocket inbox and set my email account to check every 5 minutes (so i could run back to the office if needed), logged on to msn, aol, and yahoo im, then connected via terminal services to the pc i needed to finish setting up. I even shopped for a bluetooth keyboard and mouse for my pocket pc on amazon while the apps were installing. I installed office, frontpage, some adobe stuff.. what ever i needed. I was outside enjoying the day while doing exactly what i would be doing inside my office while being reachable by email, sms, im, video conference (via MS portrait), and phone all from the same device. I sure hope my pda isn't dead... ;)

[Fred44]

Well I got xp installed enabled remote desktop and took my siemens sx66 out for a walk.
I do stuff like that all the time but never on a 320x240 display. A laptop by far would have been a more productive tool for that application. Laptops are getting smaller but all the new PDA's with VGA are getting bigger.

[Paragon]

The glory days are over for PDAs. 2004 gave us a glimpse of that reality, and 2005 will write the final chapter. Sorry folks, the PDA revolution is over…we lost.

Sounds like a bunch of foo to me!

The revolution is about to begin.

Yes traditional PDAs are on the decline, and has been stated here previously connected devices are holding their own or growing. I think that our current culture is struggling at the moment to warmup to connected handheld technology. We did the same thing not long ago with cellphones. Some folks had them, but many people were very reluctant to embrace this new technology, but as the price came dowm, and devices became smaller they expolded in popularity. As platforms become more stable, and devices become easy to use "out of the box", coupled with people realizing the full potential of connected PDAs they will replace cellphones as we know them today. How many technologies stay flat in today's world? None. They all evolve. Cellphones have been evolving and will continue to do so. They are just now becoming "smart" That smartness will continue to grow.

The two things that caused cellphones to take off, price and small size, are now happening with connected PDAs. As a result they are replacing standard cellphones, either as Smartphones or Phone Edition devices. When you look at devices like the new iMate JAM and it's very small size, the line between Smartphone, and Phone Edition is becoming very blurry as well....... Look out! There's a revolution coming!

Dave

[ADBrown]

It surprises me that there any actually thinks otherwise.

Yes, well, that happens when you take a stupid position. :devilboy:

I posted this at PalmInfoCenter, might as well reiterate it here.

Re: the declining handheld market... People keep saying this, and it doesn't make it true. Handheld sales are relatively steady, aside from the predictable seasonal highs and lows, and they continue to outclass smartphones by a factor of three to one. I equate people saying that the handheld market is dead with people saying that the automobile market was dead after Ford sold a couple of million models, on the grounds that everyone who needed a car now had one. Desktop PCs were around for what, 15-20 years before they became staples of the home? Likewise cell phones. Compared to other forms of technology, handhelds are practically on the fast-track.

There's absolutely no reason for Dell to pull out of the market, and you're wrong in assuming that they can't dominate. While they're hurt by a lack of retail presence, their sales have been climbing continuously, and they pose a noticible threat to HP and PalmOne.

I agree on embedded hard drives and the fate of Tapwave.

The chances of VGA on a Palm are almost non-existant. It would break all existing full-screen 320 x 480 software. And PalmOne is not abandoning the Zires under any circumstances. Zire sales make up a large percentage of P1's sales, and without them they would sink to second or third place.

I disagree completely on the idea that PDAs are dead. That's been the chant of prognosticators for what, two years now? Since it was first decided that smartphones would kill handhelds, smartphones have languished in the technological back woods, and handhelds have gotten cheaper, more powerful, and more common.

[ADBrown]

they'll be marketed as loss leaders (like Dell has done in the past)

Dell doesn't do loss leaders. They make a definite profit off their handheld sales.

[QYV]

The "death" of the PDA is purely semantics.

Portable media players (whether audio or video) will continue to gain mainstream appeal, and gradually get basic "PDA"-type features, even as cell phones already have. The distinction between PDA, portable media player and cell phone will blur until the category of "PDA" becomes a meaningless anachronism - there will be a myriad of form factors but everyone will be carrying a device that can do some combination of voice, messaging, calendar, music and video.

So is that the death of the PDA? &lt;shrug> Depends on how you define it...

[wshwe]

It's HP that will abandon the consumer PDA market. Dell can turn a profit on PDAs just like they do on laptops and printers. HP will stick to selling PDAs to their corporate customers so they don't defect to Dell.

I no longer care what happens to the PDA market. Got tired of trying to sync and covert things between my PDA and computer. Got a laptop. Use my PDA only sparingly.

There's no rock solid IMAP email program for PPC. WebIS MAIL doesn't cut it. Snappermail for Palm can't seem to open email messages within messages.