Is It RIP the PDA?

[Ed Hansberry]

<a href="http://www.vnunet.com/comment/1156199">http://www.vnunet.com/comment/1156199</a><br /><br />"Falling sales have led some to conclude that PDAs will fade away, but there are good reasons to think otherwise. When Sony announced that it was halting production of its Clié handhelds across Europe and the US, it sparked a debate about the entire future of the handheld PDA format. The argument was that if a manufacturing giant like Sony has discovered that it can't make money from selling PDAs, then who could?"<br /><br />Well, perhaps someone that understand the market. :wink: Now having shed its money losing operating system division PalmSource, PalmOne made a nice profit this past quarter.<br /><br />Most current PDA makers, especially those with the Windows Mobile operating system, are combining enticing consumer features like media playback and cameras while supporting features companies look for like VPN, Terminal Services and even server synchronization. Features like wireless access, integrated phones, versatile email clients and basic PIM management appeal to all PDA buyers. I think walking that fine line will keep the PDA market in business for several more years at least. No one can tell what will happen beyond that in any market.

[Kacey Green]

Bluetooth and the PDA dead?

Ed didn't like BT, but I'm sure he'll be mad about this PDA thing :wink:

[Jonathon Watkins]

I think the form factor alone will keep the PDA market going. Until we get rollable/foldable LEDs or laser retinal scanners or projected holographic displays, I think that screens from 3.6 to 4 inches will remain the sweet spot for size. I.e. small enough to be truly portable but large enough to watch video, use spreadsheets etc.

Just keep those cameras to smart phones alone and equip all PDAs with Bluetooth, so they can sync to BT mobile phones with whatever fastest mobile technology that comes along. :wink:

[gry]

I agree with this market observation:
One possible explanation for the different picture here and across the pond is that the US, which usually leads Europe in most trends, may have reached saturation point first, so most people who are likely to use a PDA now already own one.

I agree with the article's UPC statement
The ability to run standard Windows apps could attract many buyers that are put off by the size and weight of a full laptop, but would previously have had to settle for a PDA. Of course, it remains to be seen how long the batteries would last on such devices, and there is the matter of Windows XP itself, which is plagued with security flaws and takes an interminably long time to boot up - far longer than the instant-on of a Pocket PC, anyway.

If the UPC market can deliver [almost] instant access, decent battery life, and the reality of the notebook replacement in the PDA form factor, I think it will be a success.

The UPC market will attract tablet buyers, PDA buyers, and power users that want mobility and wireless access any where.

[Crimguy]

Well, I'm waiting for the time when I can truly run "standard Windows apps" on any pocket sized device. PocketWord and Co. leave a bit to be desired on my iPaq :wink:

I don't think Sony's exit has anything to to with PocketPC vs. Palm. Market saturation and increased competition from both the pocketpc and Palm itself are IMHO the real factors. Palm has served up ****e products until recently, sparked by increased innovation from Sony and HP/Compaq. I think they have responded well, for that matter. Grabbing Handspring will doubtlessly help round out their product portfolio.

Recently, Sony has been more of a proof-of-concept company in the pda biz than a creator of value based systems.



I agree with the article's UPC statement
The ability to run standard Windows apps could attract many buyers that are put off by the size and weight of a full laptop, but would previously have had to settle for a PDA. Of course, it remains to be seen how long the batteries would last on such devices, and there is the matter of Windows XP itself, which is plagued with security flaws and takes an interminably long time to boot up - far longer than the instant-on of a Pocket PC, anyway.

If the UPC market can deliver [almost] instant access, decent battery life, and the reality of the notebook replacement in the PDA form factor, I think it will be a success.

The UPC market will attract tablet buyers, PDA buyers, and power users that want mobility and wireless access any where.

I think there is also the issue of resolving ease of use, which I think the PPC and Palm have got covered, with the inherent complexities of full-blown software packages such as Word or Excel. Not to mention squeezing that information onto a 3.5" screen. The most illustrative example of this is the lame-O attempts to add calendars etc onto a phone. The screen is just too small, the interface for adding information is just too clunky, and it becomes a frustrating experience just to get it to work. Not to mention you look like the uber-geek tapping away on your phone's keypad.

[dh]

I think we are going to see that conventional PDA fade into the realms of history. Fear not though, there are clearly two types of replacement device, both of which are going to meet peoples needs better.

The first is obviously the smartphone. Some devices like the SE900 and Treo 600 do a nice job of combining a decent phone with usable PDA features, especially PIM ones. I'm sure development in this area is going to continue and there will be plenty of interesting product launches in the next couple of years.

The second sector is the super portable laptop replacement. Devices such as the OQO, the Flipstart and the Zaurus C series are examples of these products that can run real applications in a tiny size. (OK I admit I'm stretching it a bit for the Zaurus, but there are a lot of desktop apps that have been compiled to run pretty well on it. There will also be a new C960 version at some point, that is rumored to have dual wireless, mini harddrive and 256MB of RAM. Well, I can wish for it anyway).

I think the basic electronic organiser idea is just about dead. Even with the simplicity of Palms PIM apps, it's still better to use a DayTimer for people that just want to keep appointments and things.

There will also be a third more specialised sector, the commercial one. This will continue to be dominated by Symbol - at least in the US. Expect to see them launch less industrial wireless devices to compete with HP in applications such as sales force automation. Also, Palm is dead in the industrial market. Whether we like the idea or not, Windows is the only game in town. :cry:

[Stik]

I think we are going to see that conventional PDA fade into the realms of history.

I don't buy it. The FACT of the matter is that sales of PPC handhelds have been growing at 30 - 40% per year. The reason that you see the screeching negative headlines on PDA's and that pda sales are flat or dead is nothing more than sensationalist journalism, IMO, and is because Palm has been declining...
nothing more, nothing less.

Once upon a time the numbers for retail PPC buyers compared to corporate PPC buyers was about a 80% ( retail ) to 20% ( corporate ) ratio. In the last year and a half its become almost a a 50-50 proposition.

While the retail user count may be a bit on the wane, its quite the contrary for corporate deployments. I believe corporate deployments are at an early stage of a more broad corporate deployment of PPC handhelds for productivity reasons, for keeping their mobile workforce in touch for productivity enhancements and at moving order entry at the point of a customer where you can shortcut the time it takes to get information back to the corporate headquarters. Theres huge numbers in productivity benefits by using PPC handhelds. The medical field as an example is starting to use data collection and analysis on so many things that involve handhelds.

This is not an organizer thing, aka Palm organizers. Corporate deployment counts on the applications that can only be found on PPC devices to get the job done at a very decent ROI.

The actual numbers ( WM OS PPC growth of 30-40% year over year ) tell the real story of how PPC's are evolving as the tool of choice for companies going forward to cut costs and get work done.

PDA's dead? Palm organizers may be a bit sick, but PPC's?

Hogwash, IMO. The numbers don't lie. :?

[rmasinag]

I agree PDA's are dying. It's going to be replaced by PPCPE devices. Now if only WM 2003SE can go into a Treo 600............ :drinking:

[dh]

While the retail user count may be a bit on the wane, its quite the contrary for corporate deployments. I believe corporate deployments are at an early stage of a more broad corporate deployment of PPC handhelds for productivity reasons, for keeping their mobile workforce in touch for productivity enhancements and at moving order entry at the point of a customer where you can shortcut the time it takes to get information back to the corporate headquarters. Theres huge numbers in productivity benefits by using PPC handhelds. The medical field as an example is starting to use data collection and analysis on so many things that involve handhelds.

But if you read what I posted, I mentioned the third sector of commercial users for handhelds. I agree with you, this is a growth area, indeed it had better be because my company sells data collection systems. :D

Most of the devices sold in this area however, are not the same old PPCs that consumers are buying. Much more specialised, more robust and more expensive - well over $2,000 for a wireless HHP or Symbol unit. I don't think of these as PDAs, in fact they're not. They are mobile wireless devices with all the goodies for a special job. Many run CE.NET which isn't found on the average PDA.

The medical applications you mention are interesting because a lot of regular Ipaqs and Palms are starting to be used here. The FDA barcoding mandate is going to mean more of these will need to have scanners built in as well.

As I said, the old PDA for simple PIM use is certainly on the way out as the thread title suggests. I don't care because the new types of handhelds are going to be better :D

http://www.rfidnews.net/Misc%20Images/MC9000Boxes.jpg
This is no PDA!

[zipmail]

Sony's exit was a shortsighted move. The PDA dead? That's too early to call. Sure, there are more mobile phone users than PDA users - that we already now. And manufacturers are putting in PDA functions into phones but that's only because most consumers regard PDA as "an organizer" for address book and appointment book.

Sony tried the hardest to recast the PDA as more than just a PIM and very nearly did a darn good job but dropped out for only reasons known to them.

Just when the PDA is reaching the sweet spot between cost, price and form-factor some manufacturers and pundits dismiss it. That is viewing it very shortsightedly.

I have a TR1A - pretty small enough not to bitch about but since getting the TH55, I can leave it behind and do most of what I need to do without it. I had a P800 too and from my personal experience, the screen and speed was way too slow to function as a proper PDA. Great as a PIM but no PDA.

It is interesting to note that the OQOs and FlipStarts of the world are coming into play. It won't work - for now - because it's too expensive, too large and no "instant-on". Definitely a niche product and considering how powerful some PDAs are, interfacing my primary device to my mobile device is not an issue. And the OQO is not powerful enough to replace my primary machine.

Until those smartphones reach the sweet spot of what a PDA have been hammering on for the past 8 years, I still think there's a market for the PDA. What PDA manufacturers need to do now is build-in those interfaces to one's primary machine - handling email and documents natively - so that it really is an extension of one's primary device. I guess PocketPC have that advantage and is winning that slowly.

[Deus]

I have to say I do agree that PDAs(Personal Digital Assistants) are on there way out. BUT! Pocket PCs (Pocket Personal computers) are far from that. Computers lasted this long, PPCs are evolving into full computers right in your pocket. And who does not want a more accessibility to their data?

[LarDude]

I, too, am thinking about migrating to a smartphone and a mini/ultralight notebook.

I have been a big big fan of the PPC form factor since the first iPaq (3630) came out in 2000. Currently, I "enjoy" the luxury of VGA, Wi-Fi, and 1 GB of storage (512MB SD + 512MB CF II) on my Toshiba e805. Then recently, I attended a conference where the very considerate organizers had set up Wi-Fi access in all the lecture halls. At first, I felt very lucky that I did not have to lug a big heavy laptop around like many of my colleagues, and some of them were outrightly envious of my PPC. However, slowly, over the course of the rest of the week, as our respective email piled up, many of which required detailed 3 page replies, I started to get frustrated pecking or scribbling away at that tiny form factor. Don't get me wrong, I usually have no trouble replying with short messages using Transcriber or Letter Recognizer or the software keyboard, and had done so for the first 2 days. But by the 4th and 5th day, I really longed for my laptop. Somehow, from an ergonomic viewpoint, a laptop-sized screen + keyboard seems more conducive to crafting out long, thought-out email replies. Even my IR-based Stowaway keyboard was not convenient enough. Peering over at those of my colleagues who had the foresight to bring ultralight notebooks, it was me who ended up feeling very envious. The PPC just isn't cutting it as a "short-term" desktop replacement (please note that I said "short term"). As a PIM/portable media center, the PPC rocks; as a very "short term" laptop replacement, the PPC is OK; as a "short term" desktop replacement (which is the current job of my laptop), the PPC sucks. (Yes, I *do* have high expectations for my PPC -- it really *should be* "that good").

With the increasing power of smartphones, I am thinking that it could be the PIM/portable media center, and the ultralight notebook takes on the role of the desktop replacement. This leaves no room for the PPC.

[cslaughtermd]

The PDA market is not and will not ever be dead. Entirely anyway. The PDA market is, however, in somewhat of a plateau. Over the past 12 years, since the intro of the first apple newton, there has been a long, drawn-out climb from ultra-specialty and uber-geek market to mainstream, everyday use. Then a huge jump in 1999 with the MP2K and rise in popularity in the 1996-released 3Com Pilot and the initial release of WindowsCE 1.0. The past 4 years have seen an incredible rise in the technology, usefulness, and demand for these devices, resulting in smaller, faster units with vastly more capability. This includes melding with mobile phones, cameras, adding audio/video, wireless capabilities and more. However, by now most of the industries, professions, and individuals that will be using a PDA have bought one. The next step is a slow, continual upgrading and specialization of the units. Most of the major PDA manufacturers have dedicated a great deal of time, money, and effort into advancing thier units and will continue to do so in order to maintain thier share of the rapidly developing market. Some companies will enter and leave the market like Sony is doing now, and to a greater extent, Apple did in '00 with the death of the Newton (I still use my MP2K as a 1K alarm clock). The market will find more niches for specialty devices as well as excellent everyday layperson devices. Despite these fluctuations in the market, the PDA will never, never die. That is, at least until the next major technology revolution comes along. :robot:

[Pony99CA]

I, too, am thinking about migrating to a smartphone and a mini/ultralight notebook.

I have been a big big fan of the PPC form factor since the first iPaq (3630) came out in 2000. Currently, I "enjoy" the luxury of VGA, Wi-Fi, and 1 GB of storage (512MB SD + 512MB CF II) on my Toshiba e805. Then recently, I attended a conference where the very considerate organizers had set up Wi-Fi access in all the lecture halls. At first, I felt very lucky that I did not have to lug a big heavy laptop around like many of my colleagues, and some of them were outrightly envious of my PPC. However, slowly, over the course of the rest of the week, as our respective email piled up, many of which required detailed 3 page replies, I started to get frustrated pecking or scribbling away at that tiny form factor. Don't get me wrong, I usually have no trouble replying with short messages using Transcriber or Letter Recognizer or the software keyboard, and had done so for the first 2 days. But by the 4th and 5th day, I really longed for my laptop.
It doesn't have to be an either/or proposition, though. Take your laptop and your PDA. The PDA can be used to check urgent E-mails and respond to them in the lecture halls. For E-mail that's less urgent, you respond when you get back to your room and can use the more ergonomic laptop (assuming you have Internet access in your room, of course).

Another alternative is to take a Stowaway keyboard instead of the laptop (the original Stowaway with a numeric row) and keep that in your room.

If every E-mail you responded to at the conference was urgent or you didn't have Internet access in your room, there might still be a solution. Perhaps taking a thumb board with you would help ease typing at the conference. If you don't like thumb boards, maybe a Bluetooth keyboard would work. It would certainly up the cool factor. :-D

Steve

[thunderck]

I, too, am thinking about migrating to a smartphone and a mini/ultralight notebook.

With the increasing power of smartphones, I am thinking that it could be the PIM/portable media center, and the ultralight notebook takes on the role of the desktop replacement. This leaves no room for the PPC.


All this talk about this device taking over that device. What makes you think there will be an 'ultra light notebook' in the future :?: Two points to gleam from that statement. One, seems like people are quick to predict PPC future so what stops PPC from taking over notebooks. Say the PPC gets a bigger keyboard and after all there is no boot time, your apps come right up. Notwithstanding that most people never utilize their PCs, unless they game or AutoCAD. Two, seems like we should look at "NEED". Is there a need for portable computing?? Yes.. I hope in this forum I would not have to go into proving that. :wink: Where there is a need and a market there will be a device. However that device may be completely different. If the question is "Are today’s handhelds dieing?", of course. On the other hand if the question is "Is handheld computing dead?, I don't think so. When My kids are in college they maybe printing in 3D, using 3D holographic displays, and with nanotech perhaps 'printing' consumer products from nano matter in a today’s inc cartridges.
Our PPC are going to evolve but the NEED will be there for some time to come.

[The Yaz]

Is it possible that the flat sales for the pda market reflect not the death of the pda, but that the capabilities between a PocketPC from three years ago is not much different than the PocketPCs being offered today?

Case in point. My first pda was a Casio E125. It had 32mg ram and a MIPS processor. When Microsoft came out with PocketPC2002, the standard was made requiring Strongarm processors. Going forward, within a year there was less new programs available for my Casio.

Eventually I purchased an Audiovox Maestro. It has 32mg ram, 206mhz Strongarm processor, and both a SD and CF slot. With my wifi card, I can surf the web at home/work. I use a SD camera when I see an unexpected photo opportunity. I also have a CF modem which allows me to dial up my AOL account when I'm away from home.

How much better are the PocketPCs today compared to my setup? My Maestro has been called by some of my freinds as a "poor man's 2215". In terms of features, the newer pda's have more ram/rom and a higher processor, but they do not significantly change the experience.

Heck, when the first 400mhz pdas first hit the market, my Maestro clocked higher in tests since the programs were not optimized for the xscale processor. Besides that, some of the newer pda's have basically the same processing speed as my pda (Think about those Samsung 200/300mhz processors, or the TI OMAP at 200mhz).

This web community has more technical knowledge than the average consumer. You know why you want more speed/storage/wireless capability in you PocketPC. Unfortunately, I don't think the masses do and that is why sales have leveled off.

I believe that the next major purchasing cycle for the average consumer will not happen until vga resolution becomes a standard and wireless access to the internet becomes an accepted necessity for everyone. This includes reasonable unlimited data plans through wireless carriers and successful integration of Bluetooth into our everyday technology.

Otherwise, I'll just go back surfing on my Maestro until the next big thing really does come along...

Steve 8)

[Jason Lee]

Pdas are dead... Email is dead... The internet is just a fad...

[gry]

Hehe, tell that to my wife and sister, who both buy most of their things over the Internet now.

[inksterd]

All this talk about this device taking over that device. What makes you think there will be an 'ultra light notebook' in the future :?: Two points to gleam from that statement. One, seems like people are quick to predict PPC future so what stops PPC from taking over notebooks. Say the PPC gets a bigger keyboard and after all there is no boot time, your apps come right up. Notwithstanding that most people never utilize their PCs, unless they game or AutoCAD. Two, seems like we should look at "NEED". Is there a need for portable computing?? Yes.. I hope in this forum I would not have to go into proving that. :wink: Where there is a need and a market there will be a device. However that device may be completely different. If the question is "Are today’s handhelds dieing?", of course. On the other hand if the question is "Is handheld computing dead?, I don't think so. When My kids are in college they maybe printing in 3D, using 3D holographic displays, and with nanotech perhaps 'printing' consumer products from nano matter in a today’s inc cartridges.
Our PPC are going to evolve but the NEED will be there for some time to come.

I have to agree that the device will continue to evolve to meet the need. There is some pleasure in a particular device, but ultimately, we picked that device because it best met the need at the time. I also believe the need is evolving. As capabilities change and provide an edge for people competing in the workplace, the expectation changes, causing each of us who want to compete to strongly feel the need to have the best tools to compete. PDA, PPC, PPCPE, who cares! Help me know more, faster and let me close the deal, satisfy the customer better than anybody else. It has been true since before computers and will continue as long as people compete for resources.

[LarDude]

All this talk about this device taking over that device. What makes you think there will be an 'ultra light notebook' in the future :?:

Future? 8O
I'm talking about next month & the ultralight notebook under consideration is a tablet-PC (too bad that market seems to be going nowhere right now).

As for the future, I have no doubt that there will be great new innovative products. Even the nearer term future promises to show some very interesting devices with cellphones, OLED screens, and laser-projected keyboards. Unfortunately, this doesn't help me for the next 6-12 months.

[Stik]

Most of the devices sold in this area however, are not the same old PPCs that consumers are buying. Much more specialised, more robust and more expensive - well over $2,000 for a wireless HHP or Symbol unit.

http://www.rfidnews.net/Misc%20Images/MC9000Boxes.jpg
This is no PDA!

dh,

Just so you know, I agree w/ most everything you said in your original posting. :wink:

I was venting because I'm sick and tired of reading all of the ' PDA's Are Dead' type articles that put all devices, whether WM OS or PALM OS in the same ' taking on water' sinking ship, when that allegation is simply wrong and false about PPC sales, which are moving forward at a 30 to 40% gain per year and taking market share from Palm OS devices.

I especially can't stand to see that ' myth ' perpertrated here on a site thats dedicated to PPC's and wish the powers that be and know better would step in and say, 'Whoaa, wait a minute, these are the real facts!!. "

I just can't wait :roll: for the next IDC or Canalys numbers to come out, especially w/ Sony dropping out of the N. American markets to go thru the same negative, sensationalist headlines to be screeching doom and gloom once again.

Where I may be in slight disagreement w/ you is in the picture you provided for barcode scanning and PPC's. I don't think the majority of the mobile professionals, and I put emphasis on MOBILE, ' suits and skirts ' would carry such devices, ( more intended for the workforce that never leave their factory or business ) and prefer smaller, slimmer, and less expensive devices that can fit in a purse or pocket as the a PPC allows them too.

Third party apps can be added to get the job done whether it be barcode scanning, connectiveity, etc. to make the PPC the versatile mobile workforce tool that it is.

Of course you do this for a living so I may be wrong...

But I think not :mrgreen:

[dh]

Where I may be in slight disagreement w/ you is in the picture you provided for barcode scanning and PPC's. I don't think the majority of the mobile professionals, and I put emphasis on MOBILE, ' suits and skirts ' would carry such devices, ( more intended for the workforce that never leave their factory or business ) and prefer smaller, slimmer, and less expensive devices that can fit in a purse or pocket as the a PPC allows them too.

Indeed, I also think this is a growth area and you are going to find that some companies currently in the "rugged arena" are going to be aiming for this market as well.

I'm pretty sure that some kind of Wide Area Network such as GPRS is going to become standard in this section so they might sneak into the smartphone catagory.

I think the whole debate is really on what is a PDA and what is a phone. If Palm and WM devices with phone capabilities are included, PDA use is growing nicely. If you take these devices away and call them "smartphones" PDas are declining.

In the industrial area, demand seems to exceed supply right now. We just sold some standard Symbol equipment for a project and the lead time is eight to ten weeks!

The main thing for me is that handheld devices (of whatever type) are getting better, smarter and cheaper. Long may it continue :D