My theory why Microsoft will kill of the Pocket PC OS

[Eraserhead]

I have a theory that in 3-5 years Microsoft will kill of the PPC OS. In this distant future devices like the OQO will come out, will be popular and will be that cheap (5-700$) that they will start competing with high end PDA´s. Today many PPC users look at their PDA´s as mobile entertainment computers and use them for video, audio and game first and PDA´s second, or not at all. This group of PPC users, which I think is a big part will switch over to those ultra portable PC´s and Microsoft’s share of the PDA market will fall. When that happens I think Microsoft will dump it like they did with the Handheld PC´s and many other sectors of their business that did not pay of.

Meanwhile Palm will then, like now get all their money of manufacturing PDA´s and smartphone´s so they’ll just keep on doing that ( as the dwarf on the market while Nokia has over 80% market share).

[Sheynk]

I disagree.....I dont think that the OQO will lift off. It is a pain in the @$$ to use that device with regular windows... I dont see tablet pcs getting of the ground either. It all about how intuitive the OS is

[jimski]

I disagree.....I don't think that the OQO will lift off. It is a pain in the @$$ to use that device with regular windows... I dont see tablet pcs getting of the ground either. It all about how intuitive the OS is

I agree. I have owned a Tablet (Acer TravelMate) for 6 months now and have used the pen input twice (just to tinker) and have swiveled the display about 4 times (just to tinker). For now I use it on short trips instead of lugging my full featured laptop around. True handwriting recognition still does not exist, reducing a tablet's capability significantly. And those OQO type devices, while big with the "cool" factor, are not very pocketable.

I think laptops and PPC's are both going to be around for a while.

[Partita]

OQO?

does it even exist? :mrgreen: nice web page tho'.

[spacerace]

also an important factor with PPCs is the "instant boot"

you simply do not get this with any "windows" based device at the moment and that would have to be solved for mini computers to replace PPCs. I know suspend and hibernate exist, but suspend consumes battery power, and hibernate takes at least 5 to 10 seconds before you have a usable app running...
additionally both these modes have their own problems with complete failures etc.

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[Kowalski]

ppc os will never die! it is a good business solution and business men will continue to buy new models when they hit the stores

[Aerestis]

I'll hit You with a store!

I think pocket pc os will stay with us for a while yet. it'll change its name and look and feel, but it will always be insta-bootable and useful (or more) as it is today.

[c38b2]

I know suspend and hibernate exist, but suspend consumes battery power, and hibernate takes at least 5 to 10 seconds before you have a usable app running...
Turning off a Pocket PC is like putting it in suspend - it has to consume power in order to keep the memory intact.

[spacerace]

Turning off a Pocket PC is like putting it in suspend - it has to consume power in order to keep the memory intact.

yes sorry i didn't mean to imply that PPC used no battery power when it's turned off but, in my experience at least, the battery impact is minimal for a PPC compared to a laptop in suspend mode.

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[c38b2]

I suppose it's in proportion to how much RAM you have. My laptop has 16x the RAM of my PPC so battery drains are a bit more considerable in my laptop than my PPC. However, I also have 9x the battery capacity in my laptop so it's not a clear-cut comparison. :wink:

[hamishmacdonald]

I watched that video on the OQO website, and I thought, "Oh no. I said this year I wasn't buying any more gear, but that... I might have to have that."

But then, as someone else mentioned, I remembered that the thing would have to boot. That killed it then and there. No more record-button moments for capturing my thoughts as I fall asleep in bed, no more sending something while we stand there talking, "Can you stick around for three minutes while I boot up?"

I don't know what the future holds for small computing. My real struggle is to appreciate what I have now. Yesterday I worked from a library, just with the things I had in my pockets. Then I walked around a museum and checked my e-mails with my Pocket PC and my mobile as a modem -- without having to take the phone from my pocket. Then I got home and I synched without wires. I've got to remind myself how cool this all is, and that I don't even use it all to capacity. I don't need anything else. (Repeat to myself for the remainder of 2004: "I don't need anything else...")

[Eraserhead]

I am talking about in few years when all those flaws are takin care of - istant boot, long battery life, much better writing software etc. And I'm not saying that OQO will be popular, I'm talking about devices simular to the OQO that will start to take ground in five years.

[sracer]

OQO is not the answer...nor the future replacement for PPCs.

One of the reasons why Palm took off and became so popular way-back, was the fact that it had specialized hardware and software specifically for mobile use.

When the first palm-sized Windows CE devices came out they were clunky, unstable, expensive, and difficult to navigate. The older CE Shell (pre-PPC) looked a lot like desktop Windows. (Now my PPC works virtually just like my desktop using PPX and my WinXPSE UI... see the link in my sig for screenshots)

Rather than taking a desktop PC and shrinking it down, I believe the future is taking the PPC and "beefing it up" to perform desktop/notebook-like functions.

I managed to get my old reliable Casio BE-300 Pocket Manager (a winCE-based device with oddball OS extensions, not a PPC) working as a laptop-replacement-in-a-pinch. That was only with 16MB of RAM and a single CF slot!

Now I have an iPAQ 2215, and with the added memory, dual slots, it easily can replace a notebook/laptop in even more situations. If I had a way of attaching it to an external monitor, it would be nearly complete (for me).

VGA PPCs are such a step of "beefing up" PPCs. The current crop of VGA PPCs don't make any sense to me because the screens are nearly the same size as their QVGA siblings, and there is no built-in port for attaching it to an external monitor.

I suspect that as bluetooth catches on, and newer devices come out with USB hosting and native external monitor support, we'll see a remarkable transformation of the PPC into an OQO rival that is built-up, rather than, scaled-down.

[Palmguy]

VGA PPCs are such a step of "beefing up" PPCs. The current crop of VGA PPCs don't make any sense to me because the screens are nearly the same size as their QVGA siblings, and there is no built-in port for attaching it to an external monitor.

I suspect that as bluetooth catches on, and newer devices come out with USB hosting and native external monitor support, we'll see a remarkable transformation of the PPC into an OQO rival that is built-up, rather than, scaled-down.

The current crop is only one...the e800. Which does support, via an expansion pack, VGA output. The screen is numerically close in size to the 3.5" and 3.8" QVGA screens, but I assure you, even if it doesn't make sense to you, it sure does to some people! It is a completely different experience using a VGA PPC.

[Eraserhead]

Sracer wrote:
Rather than taking a desktop PC and shrinking it down, I believe the future is taking the PPC and "beefing it up" to perform desktop/notebook-like functions

Yeas this is right and this is what Palm, Sony, Nokia will do. But Microsoft's money cow is desktop OS and there is no way in hell that they will make the PPC compete to the desktop PC's. This is one of the main reason why Microsoft is scared to release real office app's to the PPC because it could compete with their expensive desktop version of Office if people would start to connect their PPC to external screens, keyboard’s and stuff you could get an easy computer for less money, and less money is something Microsoft hate's.

[sracer]

The current crop is only one...the e800. Which does support, via an expansion pack, VGA output. The screen is numerically close in size to the 3.5" and 3.8" QVGA screens, but I assure you, even if it doesn't make sense to you, it sure does to some people! It is a completely different experience using a VGA PPC.

Let me clarify.

The fact that the e800 requires the expansion pack proves my point. Even the older e740 and e750 devices could use the expansion pack to display on an external monitor. If the e800 had a built-in port to attach to an external monitor (even if via a dongle) would've been a great step forward.

Although people do buy e800's, no one has yet provided specific benefits of the VGA screen. Even your reply is very generic and nebulous..."completely different experience".

Take any e800 VGA screencap and within your favorite image software, resize it so that it is the same size as the physical screen of the e800. Screen elements are absolutely tiny!

In my 2 hour evaluation of the e800, I found the higher-res very distracting...it is downright annoying for those apps that don't behave well in VGA.

Do people like the e800 VGA screen? Sure! But it is more of a general feeling than anything tangible....and that's okay.

[sracer]

Sracer wrote:
Rather than taking a desktop PC and shrinking it down, I believe the future is taking the PPC and "beefing it up" to perform desktop/notebook-like functions

Yeas this is right and this is what Palm, Sony, Nokia will do. But Microsoft's money cow is desktop OS and there is no way in hell that they will make the PPC compete to the desktop PC's. This is one of the main reason why Microsoft is scared to release real office app's to the PPC because it could compete with their expensive desktop version of Office if people would start to connect their PPC to external screens, keyboard’s and stuff you could get an easy computer for less money, and less money is something Microsoft hate's.

As much as I dislike Microsoft, they are not stupid. You may believe that MS is "scared" to release real office apps, but history has proven that MS only progresses their software when directly threatened. MSIE was an anemic web browser until Netscape continued to push forward. Other companies raise the bar and MS follows. Word only moved forward due to constant pressure from Ami Pro and WordPerfect.

Although Office is MS' cash-cow, MS also makes a tidy sum off of PPC licenses. They aren't worried about a handful of pocket-protector touting, propeller-beanie geeks like me hooking their PPC up to an external monitor. Besides, I already have a license for a copy of Office that was preloaded on my desktop PC.

PPCs...even beefed up ones, will never replace desktop PCs for the overwhelming majority of users.

We should keep a keen eye on SoftMaker.... they've done a great job with TextMaker. As they round out their Office suite, I'm sure things will heat up. And of course, Linux-based handhelds could be the darkhorse in this race... Just wait until the first Linux handheld ships with StarOffice/OpenOffice! :D

Competition is great for us consumers... if only to get Microsoft off their duff and move forward.

[Paula]

OQO?

does it even exist? :mrgreen: nice web page tho'.

Would someone kindly point me in the direction of this nice web page? I have no idea what OQO is.

Thanks
Paula

[Steven Cedrone]

Would someone kindly point me in the direction of this nice web page? I have no idea what OQO is.

http://www.oqo.com/

Steve