Top Internet Trends for 2004: Declining Use of the Web Browser on Desktop

[Jason Dunn]

<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://www.webtalkguys.com/10604.shtml' target='_blank'>http://www.webtalkguys.com/10604.shtml</a><br /><br /></div>This article is a fun read:<br /><br />"...we tech-focused folk have a lot to keep us cheery. Sometimes it seems like most people just don’t realize how much technology is changing all of our lives, mostly for the better. It will continue to do so in 2004. While there are many interesting developments on the 2004 horizon, the top ten that caught my attention are: <br /><br />1. The decline of the web browser usage on the desktop as a way to get to web content<br />2. The growth of Internet applications – the executable Internet<br />3. All things wireless<br />4. Digital media enters the living room<br />5. Professional journalistic weblogs are syndicated through RSS<br />6. Microsoft mobile platforms<br />7. Voice over IP (VoIP) makes mainstream calls<br />8. Internet radio growth and revenue<br />9. Online search extends beyond web<br />10. How online popularity is creating world wide celebrities." <br /><br />They had an interesting snippet about Microsoft's mobile platforms:<br /><br />"The words Mobile and Wireless will continue to be the buzzwords for 2004. The most significant change in the Mobile and Wireless landscape is Microsoft’s’ growing presence in these markets. The Microsoft Windows Mobile platform will make 2004 a year to remember. The early reviews coming out about the Microsoft Smart Phone and Pocket PC Phones are strong now and will continue to only get better over the next 12 months. 2004 will present to us the opportunity to truly integrate our cell phone smart phone with our desktop PC. For corporations, this Microsoft Mobile platform will enable real-time access to network data and communications from anywhere at anytime by combining Wi-Fi, bluetooth and cellular data connections. Look for 2004 & 2005 to be the years Microsoft integrates all of its applications into a true mobile wireless computing and communications experience."<br /><br />What do you think about their predictions?

[Ed Hansberry]

1. The decline of the web browser usage on the desktop as a way to get to web content
2. The growth of Internet applications – the executable Internet
huh? :confused totally:

4. Digital media enters the living roomXP Media Center baby!!!!!

[Janak Parekh]

huh? :confused totally:
In other words, you have specialized applications that use the Internet to access the information for you. WMP, iTunes, Napster, etc. for music, for example. It's a weak argument, though. The web is still fundamentally useful, and all of these services actually use the web, just through their "interface" -- they embed a browser (IE in most cases, iTunes uses their Safari engine).

And that's not even talking about blogs; if anything, blogs and news sites like this one have increased my web browser usage. So I don't buy that.

--janak

[Ed Hansberry]

huh? :confused totally:
In other words, you have specialized applications that use the Internet to access the information for you. WMP, iTunes, Napster, etc. for music, for example.Yeah, I got the meaning. Just thought it was dumb. :?

[cmorris]

1. The decline of the web browser usage on the desktop as a way to get to web content
2. The growth of Internet applications – the executable Internet


Not much of a 'prediction' for anyone who's seen Longhorn (not that we'll see this in 2004 or even 2005). There is not much more development going into IE, while a ton of work is going into Indigo - a Windows subsystem that is going to make it easy/secure to communicate over the Internet. Combine it with the new graphics subsystem and it blows away anything a browser can/will do. Anyone who saw the Amazon demo they showed at the PDC will probably agree. :lol:

[cmlpreston]

a Windows subsystem that is going to make it easy/secure to communicate over the Internet.

Pigs? What Pigs?

cmlp

[tanalasta]

1. The decline of the web browser usage on the desktop as a way to get to web content
I disagree with this comment. The web browser is the mainstream way of accessing information on the internet and whilst dedicated specialist programs may exist... the average joe blogg would still use IEx to browse random information or their fave websites (e.g. pocketpcthoughts)

Many institutions and universities now have webcontent/course materials online. Journal articles, stockbroking/banking, paying bills etc... are becoming more and more popular and i predict that this area will continue to grow for the next few years before it (if at all) declines.

3. All things wireless
When they are become cheaper - for sure!

7. Voice over IP (VoIP) makes mainstream calls
Not until broadband becomes the norm and quality improves. Would be a good idea for webcams/videoconferencing. However, i believe mobile handsets for mainstream calls is more likely. Especially for the yuppie generation.

[Foo Fighter]

Good God! Not another "the browser is dead" prediction. Application driven web access never took off and it never will! How many of you use Outlook to access the web? Anyone....anyone....? Didn't think so. The browser isn't a dying platform. It just seems that way because Microsoft won the browser wars, and allowed IE to fall into a perpetual state of stagnancy.

And people actually get paid to write these predictions? I'm in the wrong line of work. :roll:

[Foo Fighter]

By the way, has anyone ever listened to the WebTalkGuys? It's about as exciting as listening to my hard drive spin.

[Jimmy Dodd]

1. The decline of the web browser usage on the desktop as a way to get to web content
I disagree with this comment.
...


Well, to be fair, he did say decline of browsers (not death) and he said specifically "on the desktop."
I for one now spend a lot of my online time on my iPAQ via WiFi, and many of the things I used to browse for are now browser-less: music (Media Player) and banking (MS Money) come to mind. So while I don't think browser-based internet usage is going to be in the minority anytime soon I do believe we will continue to see a growth in thick client usage (and a relative decline in thin client usage).

[gohtor]

Like with most people that pointed out. the decline of the desktop is the only real thing that I have to disagree.

I would like to browse the internet outside my desktop but on a ppc and smartphone it just isn't impressive nor functional enough (small in size and not feature rich). Longhorn may redefine the way we compute but browsers will still be a staple of desktop computing.

If there was a portable thin client pc that was on prototyping at Intel (a while back) that would work. The whole gripe over having vga/usb on existing ppc comes to the same solution. You're still stuck on a desktop like environment to browse the internet effectively.

[Kevin Daly]

10. How online popularity is creating world wide celebrities."

11. Conservative US bloggers erupt in outrage when Scoble announces "I'm bigger than God." Bill Gates calls Scoble to his office to more clearly delineate their respective roles. :wink:

[Kevin Daly]

Assuming the necessary privacy controls are in place ("Back in your room, Mr Ashcroft, it's time for your nap"), we might begin to see a convergence between search engines and location-aware applications - so that the theme of search engines extending beyond the web might come to include searching in physical space as well as internet space.

Staying with search engines and their kindred and offspring, perhaps we'll finally see an acceptance that as things stand at the moment, machine translation doesn't work (yes folks, I'm sorry but it's true. The results are good for a laugh but that's it. Now flame me).
--but that if we adopt slightly less ambitious aims in this area, always-available (dare I suggest something smart tag-gy?) online dictionaries could be very handy.

[cshields1]

Ya think! I gave up my home phone line because of the advertising/soliciting. Now the popup advertising is threatening to bring the web down. Don't these people ever get it?! I'm evaluating a bunch of popup killer software now. If I spend $25 - $100 to end advertising, it's worth every penny.
Boycot all these ads, bring the advertizers to their knees - we won't buy from your stupid popups!
I'm done.

[Janak Parekh]

Ya think! I gave up my home phone line because of the advertising/soliciting. Now the popup advertising is threatening to bring the web down. Don't these people ever get it?! I'm evaluating a bunch of popup killer software now. If I spend $25 - $100 to end advertising, it's worth every penny.
Don't spend any money. Get Google Toolbar (http://toolbar.google.com/) -- it's free and kills popups. :)

--janak

[Jimmy Dodd]

Ya think! I gave up my home phone line because of the advertising/soliciting. Now the popup advertising is threatening to bring the web down. Don't these people ever get it?! I'm evaluating a bunch of popup killer software now. If I spend $25 - $100 to end advertising, it's worth every penny.
Don't spend any money. Get Google Toolbar (http://toolbar.google.com/) -- it's free and kills popups. :)

--janak

I've had Google Toolbar installed for a couple of months, and I've forgotten what popups look like. I heartily recommend it.

Plus the price is right! :D