Log in

View Full Version : Not Even Microsoft Will Last Forever, but They Plan to Try


Jason Dunn
11-21-2003, 01:00 AM
<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/pulpit20031120.html' target='_blank'>http://www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/...it20031120.html</a><br /><br /></div>"The step after ubiquity is invisibility. Last week, I wrote about the peculiar business psychology of Microsoft, and this week, we cut to the chase -- what it all really means. And the key idea lies in that first sentence. Microsoft's goal has always been to make Windows ubiquitous, but achieving that goal will ultimately be the company's doom. And at the highest reaches of Microsoft, they know it. What was the personal computing revolution has turned into just another part of the electronics business, and even mighty Microsoft risks being commoditized to death. It is already happening. Don't think so? We live in the age of branding and the Microsoft, Windows, and Office brands are among the best-known in any industry, yet how many people actually buy software from Microsoft BECAUSE it's from Microsoft? See?"<br /><br />Every week I enjoy reading Robert X. Cringley's editorials, but this week's editorial left me feeling a bit queasy. In the back of my mind, I knew this was the transaction play that Microsoft was going for, but Cringley spells it out so clearly it's a little frightening. :worried: Let's hope things don't turn out the way he's predicting...

JohnnyFlash
11-21-2003, 01:26 AM
Guess I should still hold onto my old Win 98 CD's...maybe I'll make a few bucks in the far future... :wink:

mv
11-21-2003, 02:40 AM
now i´m depressed. :cry: :cry:

Should we all go with linux? Let the penguin kick M$!!! :D

William Yeung
11-21-2003, 03:05 AM
I think market force will decide- if they really do great products I think afterall people will pay for them; While if quality wise they go worse and worse, I think there are just far too much alternatives on the market.

Also, I think the guy is a bit too exaggregating... even looking at GE, do they charge customer in such unreasonable situation? I dont think so, look at what is Six Sigma for them... then you will actually realize they emphasis on customer satisifaction more than how to charge. Also I think the problem of M$ now is the fast growth of product (Windows Mobile, Windows Server, .NET... I think the past 1-2 yrs are the fastest growing ever time of MS products) their service just not catching up instead... Not the case they dont want to do better, but it is far to difficult sometimes.

toxostoma
11-21-2003, 04:05 AM
You can say what you want about exaggeration, but one thing in that article simply can't be shrugged off. When Microsoft disables their own search tools to prevent people from getting information, you know hell, fire, and brimstone are coming.

benca1
11-21-2003, 05:20 AM
Well, it perfectly follows the new licensing strategy which is an even more interesting topic that the author thankfully skipped (it's been all over the anti-MS sites like slashdot).

I don't know, I think they're just getting going, and I also believe that the ramifications are tremendous. I don't think the average joe really understands how pervasive and revolutionary high-tech is still yet to become. But I'll bet the execs at MS do!

But I have faith as a free-market capitalist. Every force has an equal opposite force, every action has a re-action. Most people simply don't comprehend how serious of a threat open source software is to not just MS, but to many industries in general. MS needs to make immidate and dramatic steps to cut OS off at the pass. It will fail, but will generate a lot of money before then. Ironically, MS created open source with their business practices, it forced a niche in the market. The more MS pushes the more others will push back. And how funny that you push back charging nothing for software that is better, or as good as MS software. Look at IIS and apache over the last 5 years. IIS hasn't made any in roads. Or php versus asp. etc etc.

I'm a sysadmin. I work with a lot of software, a lot of platforms. I don't do a thing with MS anymore, simply because I abhore mediocrity in my tools.

For example, my linux box is fully automated. One command and my Canon G3 uploads the entire CF card to my hard drive, creates thumbnails and a index.html file for browsing and finishes with a backup to CD-R. Sure I could do this with windows using MS tools, but then I'm locked into that - it's much better for my career to learn industry tools such as shell and perl. But that's a poor example.

I have no DVD restrictions. I can view any type of video file in existance. I can keep my system easily up to date (it's gentoo), it's fully optimized to my hardware. I can handle and manipulate any filesystem, any file format (including MS office in OpenOffice). Finally my digital images look much sharper in linux due to the quality of the rendering software. Well, the videos look better too. I also have TIVO functionality. It costs me nothing.

All of it is free. No copyright restriction either. I don't steal a thing, and I really appreciate being able to easily rip my entire CD collection.

All of it is and was free. There's even professional video editing tools available... for free.

Funny, because I use MS more then ever now that I have a pocket pc. Palm just stinks. But I'm sure this is probably temporary. If anything, maybe I can configure Wine or VMware to allow me to run outlook and sync to my pcket pc.

Anyway, I'm rambling, but I think we on the edge of a very interesting time.

JonathanWardRogers
11-21-2003, 06:03 AM
I've heard this same tone and these same accusations for over a decade! When has it ever come to pass? Why should I believe that this will ever happen? Just because some guy draws some conclusions based on a few facts? It seems to me that there could be a billion other explanations for Microsoft's actions than the ones he uses to bolster his editorial.

I don't understand why people think they have the right to demand that Microsoft provide free support information! What company provides more technical support than Microsoft?!? TechNet may be gone, but MSDN is not.

All of this whining and complaining makes me sick. If you don't like the way that they do business, don't use them. But don't whine about all the free stuff they offered that is no longer free. Don't build up this huge conspiricy theory about how Microsoft is trying to take over the world. We've been hearing it for years, and I think it's time to get over it.

Sorry if this incites a riot. Just my opinion.

Jonathan1
11-21-2003, 09:27 AM
Hmmmm maybe a pole shift....Apple's rise to dominance and Microsoft's fall from the limelight?

:crazyeyes: Wait. Steve Jobs running a company with a 90% market share is scarier then even a Microsoft run world. I think I've just officially scared myself. *goes and hides under his bed* :worried:

To be honest I would like to live in a world where MS owned only 60% of the desktop market. (The rest split between Linux and Apple) It would drive competition and keep MS from pulling some of the questionable tactics they've pulled in the past. *shrugs*

Jonathan1
11-21-2003, 09:32 AM
All of this whining and complaining makes me sick. If you don't like the way that they do business, don't use them. .

Kinda hard not to do business with them when they are the business. Talking computers without dealing with Microsoft is like dealing with a car without the nuts and bolts. It's the whole 90% market share thing. You can't get away from that and it won't change for a long time as long as MS has what? Couple billion in the bank??? and a 90% market share. Contrary to what Linux users say MS is here for a LOOOOONG while.

krisbrown
11-21-2003, 11:51 AM
Well, we can dream can't we .
to a bright future without MS's stranglehold on invention.
Since Windows 3.1, all MS have done is make their OS more complicated, the only difference between 3.1 and XP is thousands more goddam settings.
That may be a simplistic and incomplete statement, but THINK about it, my PC takes longer to boot up and close down that my old 286 on 3.1 did.
There is a realisation that Smartphones are too complicated for the average user, so the industry is pushing for simpler interfaces and consumer training.
WILL SOMEONE TELL MICROSOFT ABOUT THIS!!!!!!!!!!!
The modern processor could be so much, it wil never realise it's potential while slaving for Microsoft.

jsimotas
11-21-2003, 01:30 PM
This article doesn’t take Government Interventions into account. If microsoft was go get too powerful they would be broken up, and the Windows Group may be a customer of Digital Rights Management (DRM) group. This is what I see as microsoft’s biggest short term threat. I predict MS will be broken up by the end of the decade.

A Good example of this power, is that for some reason I always make the name microsoft in lower case and it comes up with a red line under it telling me it should be spelled with a Capital ‘M’, I added it to my dictionary as lower case the line turned green for incorrect grammar..

What other company does this happen for?

Jonathan1
11-21-2003, 02:53 PM
Well, we can dream can't we .
to a bright future without MS's stranglehold on invention.
Since Windows 3.1, all MS have done is make their OS more complicated, the only difference between 3.1 and XP is thousands more goddam settings.
That may be a simplistic and incomplete statement, but THINK about it, my PC takes longer to boot up and close down that my old 286 on 3.1 did.
There is a realisation that Smartphones are too complicated for the average user, so the industry is pushing for simpler interfaces and consumer training.
WILL SOMEONE TELL MICROSOFT ABOUT THIS!!!!!!!!!!!
The modern processor could be so much, it wil never realise it's potential while slaving for Microsoft.

And can't your currently computer do more then your 286 ever did. You are correct a very "simplistic statement". 3.1 and XP. Sort of like a common mans Cessna vs. a space shuttle. You have more options which gives you more versatility and more choices on how to config and operate your system. MS should be praised for this not condemned. But unfortunately they over the years have focused on features vs. the intangible such as security and stability. I mean how do you sell security and stability. It's like insurance. It isn't until it bites you in the butt is when you are glade its there until then it’s a silent feature you take for granted.
Trust me I have no love lost with Microsoft but you HAVE to acknowledge both the good and the bad they have done for this industry.

Jonathan1
11-21-2003, 03:04 PM
This article doesn’t take Government Interventions into account. If microsoft was go get too powerful they would be broken up, and the Windows Group may be a customer of Digital Rights Management (DRM) group. This is what I see as microsoft’s biggest short term threat. I predict MS will be broken up by the end of the decade.

A Good example of this power, is that for some reason I always make the name microsoft in lower case and it comes up with a red line under it telling me it should be spelled with a Capital ‘M’, I added it to my dictionary as lower case the line turned green for incorrect grammar..

What other company does this happen for?

I think they said the same at the last antitrust hearing. I think at a certain point breaking up their M won't matter. Once they own the server market, desktop market, gaming market, PDA market, etc, etc. What's left? They are already creeping into the hardware market. Then you lock everyone into trusted computing and what choice do you have left? I believe they should have been broken up in the last antitrust trials. But that's only my personal opinion. I know there are a lot of people that feel it wouldn't have done any good. If nothing else it would keep the specter of MS axing Office and Virtual PC for the Mac. (You want to kill the Mac threat in the corp environment this would be a good method.)

Felix Torres
11-21-2003, 09:03 PM
The sky is falling, the sky is falling...
...not!

First off, yes, MS *could* do all that.
Yes, Apple is already doing it.

But there is one hidden flaw in Mr Cringely's analysis; he states the MS has to either get into new businesses or squeeze more money off customers and partners and then promptly *assumes* that they will do the latter instead of the former.

The problem is that for the last eight years or so, MS has been actively and openly doing just that; getting into new businesses.

Y'know, stuff like PDAs, phones, gaming consoles, online services, online music stores, ebooks, cars, home networks...

No speculation needed; they are, after all, *doing* it even as we speak!
Fighting their way into new (for them) businesses or even, egads!, *creating* new businesses altogether.

And even in their existing computer business, MS has shown they can outgrow the wannabe competitors by simply optimizing their products for different audiences, thereby carving the general-purpose PC into new splinters like home computers, scientific workstations (has anybody even noticed that SUN is down to 4th in workstation market share with less than 14%? They had 52% just five years ago...), Tablets, media centers, and other variants yet to come.

Think about it; how many versions of Windows XP does MS currently market? Aside from the various server implementations (the fastest growing business at MS these days, BTW) they have XP Home, XP professional, XP Tablet, XP Media Center, and XP embedded.
Most of those OS-variants is a business onto itself bigger than Apple and LINUX combined. (The tablet PC is considered a disappointment because it *only* sold 500,000 units the first year!)

And that's just the Windows Family.

Office? Anybody tried out Onenote? Sharepoint? Mappoint? Plenty of room to grow there.

Windows CE?
Quite a few car companies are using it in their dashes, these days; that's where the Voice Commander tech comes from, after all.
Anybody want to bet that as wireless networks proliferate and LCD prices come down we won't be attaching Mira smart displays as auxiliaries on our home PCs come 2007-2008? That's another Windows CE business, after all.
The specs for the Media2Go boxes specify Windows CE as the base OS and anybody looking to compete with the upcoming video iPods knows they'll need a proven OS and a familiar interface for their portable media center computers. The choices will be to roll their own, use LINUX, or go with Media2Go. Which one will get you to market quickest with the better product? Place your bets, folks...

The obvious truth is MS *does* intend to squeeze more money out of every customer (there aren't all that many paying customers that aren't already using MS software, after all) but it is by selling us *more* software, not charging more more for the same stuff.

And they'll do that by getting us to buy new products. Products that don't exist today, just like Pocket PCs and smart phones didn't exist ten years ago.

No speculation needed, guys; they're *doing* it!
The only question is which of those emerging business is going to turn into a cash cow and which ones will be sent to the glue factory.

At this stage of the game MS can afford to lose a few; they just need to win a one or two.
And, does anybody not named MacNealy *really* think they will *all* fail?

Me, if I had to bet, I'd say XBOX2 and Smartphone '05 will be the bigger winners, and the SPOT system will probably die a quick death.

Of course, your milleage may vary...

JonathanWardRogers
11-21-2003, 09:29 PM
Well put Felix!