"What do you use it for?" "Lots of things." "Oh." *Dissapointment*

[Skoobouy]

There was an interesting bit of posts in the Brighthand thread about the so-called "death of Pocket PC" arising out of speculation that M$ has a new baby, the smart phone, and no longer loves the Pocket PC anymore.

All well and good, but then came the few posts (now) at the end explaining why a Microsoft Rep would carry a Blackberry, which the pessimists call a "competitor." In truth, I think that the BB vs. Pocket PC or Palm is more likely an issue analagous to Bluetooth vs. WiFi--some overlapping applications and exclusive advantages, but ultimately non-competing. However, something else I noticed was this interesting comment, made by Mark Rejhon:Blackberry: The undisputed king of instant push email that instantly shows up on your wireless device **mere seconds** after they are sent from desktop, like an alphanumeric pager or SMS with unlimited message size and attachments. None of the 15 second email polling from smartphones.

I wish PDAs would become ubiquitous, like televisions or the traditional telephone or the PC, but I don't think it can happen. However, I don't believe it has much to do with simple competition from smartphones. Rather, I think Pocket PCs are too "General Purpose" to catch on. Unfortunately, if I try to explain this, I have to abandon pragmatism and go straight for consumer psychology.

Pocket PCs do a boat-load. There's no disputing that. But the problem is not that they don't do enough, but rather that they don't do one big thing. Maybe I'm only rehashing the old problem of the "killer app," but really I think there are more basic problems here. Personal computers were word processors and spreadsheet machines before they were used for anything else (inside the consumers' homes, that is). Word-processors were hugely popular because of their sanity-saving advantages over traditional typewriters. It was only later that PCs became "Internet terminals." Similarly, PDAs were originally PIMs. However, electronic PIMs never really stole the show from paper organizers. I won't list the reasons.

So, the problem is that PDA companies (thanks to Microsoft) began moving away from selling PIMs to selling converged devices in general. Convergence for convergence's sake. And, for some reason I can't understand (because I personally love conv. for conv's sake), this doesn't ever catch on. Convergence is a good thing, but it only becomes popular when it grows out of a device which already has a user-base strongly attached to a clear, primary, popular function. Examples: Playstation 2 + DVD; Cell phones + Internet; MP3 players + PIM; Microwave ovens + a clock; shampoo + conditioner; and so forth.

But PDAs do everything equally. PIM + data viewing + news + music + pictures + games + ebooks + recording + wireless + CIR + + +... And as much as I could conceive of a life whose nearly every data need is served by a machine weighing 4.5oz, there has never been a product in history which has been successfully marketed starting from "convergence for convergence's sake." Even the almighty PC had to evolve to get to where it is today. And this brings us back to the Blackberry. The BB is: E-mail + PIM. Hence it has achieved a certain security which Pocket PCs don't have, and which Palm based machines are in danger of losing.

Hence my conclusion: for PDAs to "survive" (whatever that means) they must go beyond the "killer app"--they must have one unambiguous primary function that everyone and their mother can see the head-smackingly-obvious use for... and mere PIM apps don't cut it because electronic PIMs have never supplanted paper organizers. Rather, I think that this function is satisfying, easy, affordable wireless Web. I think this would save PPC from getting absorbed into cell phones. But it has to be created, supported, and marketted like nothing else matters.

[mc_03]

... and with the lack of decent mobile content, low screen resolutions, expensive data plans, scarce wirless and clumsy interfaces, this isn't going to happen for a long time if it happens at all.

That is the reason that PDAs and smartphones will merge. Smartphones are much better at connectivity and mobile content. The PDA wont turn into the smartphone, and the smartphone wont turn into the PDA. But I think that soon there will be 1 device that is your PIM, entertainment, and Internet in one. This device does not need to have one specialized application- as we have seen from 3rd party developers, PDA software can do most of what a specialized device can. Its up to the Microsoft and Palm to integrate such features into their OWN software.

[Falstaff]

... and with the lack of decent mobile content, low screen resolutions, expensive data plans, scarce wirless and clumsy interfaces, this isn't going to happen for a long time if it happens at all.

That is the reason that PDAs and smartphones will merge. Smartphones are much better at connectivity and mobile content.

Large amounts of mobile content will not come about until there is a large proliferation of wireless devices. But the way things are headed now, there will be no need for specialized mobile content. Good web browsers now take a website and reformat it on demand at their servers, and then send it to your PPC. And with 640x480 screens and Microsoft's decision to begin making them standard in the future, the problem of low resolution is beginning to fade as well.
The cost of wireless access is still expensive and cumbersome (CF cards) to be most effective. But as time goes on, wireless connectivity can be easily built into a PDA, just like wi-fi and bluetooth. I think PDAs will not head towars smart phones except that they will gain wireless abilities. Enough people still do not want their $400+ PDA to be their cellphone. Would you take that device with you on the beach, camping, or any number of other places where it could easily be damaged? But would you take a cellphone that you got free with your contract and you can replace for a low cost?
Smartphones will always remain a niche, sales are growing, but many PDA users will not switch over. I think the Treo 600 is a very nice device, but I would not be willing to use that as my PDA, so in essence I would be wasting $400. Some devices like the XDA come close to filling in as the PDA, but they still lack features. There is no Smartphone out there (as far as I know, I may be wrong) that has a CF slot, important for people who want to have a micro drive and store large amounts of music/videos and other files.
PDAs and Smartphones will both expand their capabilities, they will get higher resolution screens, faster processors, etc. yet they will never converge at least in the market. Their stats may be fairly similar, but when it comes down to having a smart phone with a little less for the same price as a PDA with more and a free phone that you can take anywhere, most die-hard PDA users will opt for the latter solution. Also a question for you, how are smartphones, the vast majority with significantly lower resolutions and smaller screens, better at displaying web data?
That's just my opinion, I could be wrong.

--If anyone notices, I did copy the last line from Dennis Miller live.

[William Yeung]

I think its right strategic comment. If BlackBerry is doing EMAIL + pim, I dont see why Pocket PC cannot do a BETTER EMAIL INTERNET + pim... its all too much fun (and fustration) to see how MS position their device.

Palm did this right by doing PIM + something else... uptill now although they have competition, they could fight back well because their PIM is good and stable, yet easy to use (although sometimes not powerful enough) while our WM2003 are full of fun to make you even forget about your time (I think this is an intentional act- to make you enjoy your PDA more without being disturb by troublesome alarm ;) )

I recently looked OPIE (opie.handhelds.org) and could see it would become a big competition to M$ if M$ continue to work this way without any dependable quality.

[Skoobouy]

Actually, with current available technology, I think the best route would be this: a $350-$400, ultrathin, WiFi, 4" or more, VGA Pocket PC, with SDIO and a 300MHz XScale, with a name like "Wi-Pad". It could be billed as "The Wireless Wide Web, whenever you wander into Wifi." :) Simple--near idiot proof--affordable, and clear.

[thunderck]

I would have to agree about most in the above posts. Seems to me that PPC’s are really Swiss Army Knives, look at all the cool things Maciver did with his. However nothing really stands out, nothing really grabs people’s attention. (I mean non techies) Many people think they are cool but would not buy one. I find that with every PPC I own those that are close to me think, “that’s neat” and move along. Little unimpressed they are. (trying to be like Yoda) Then I load all the things that if built in could be killer apps, PocketTV, Pocket Informant, WIFI, CDMA, <-- those last two really on-demand E-mail. There are others. Organizations my have killer apps that they develop in house. I know the list above is not complete but for the masses those are big ones maybe not so much PPCTV but I’m running with.

PockeTV is great, I think and so does the receptionist at my organization that watches Friends episodes that I bring in. Other people that see this think it is really nifty to, not going to make them go out and by one however. Consider for a moment that Sprint or Verizon had next level role-outs of data service in say 2005. (I know Verizon is working with faster data in some markets and Sprint plans on upgrade to half meg rage in 2005-06) So a year to a year and a half gives PPCs time to develop more and wam! The market is ripe and ready for the picking. Imagine connecting back to your home PC and listening to all the music you downloaded and watch all the TV and movies you downloaded (from a paid site, or course.) This is a little far fetched because I doubt the TV portion of this type of service will be mainstream, but certainly not hard to setup, one so inclined could do it now. So you have POCKETTV +swiss army Knife. You will see the streaming video from the Network provider, Sprint does it now. Yes people could just use their cell phones but PPC have bigger screens. Any good cell phone with color and good sound will be expensive anyway, relatively speaking. Also by 2005-06 I hope other data services are in the mix namely SSL VPN and e-mail which benefit from a larger screen format. Taken together I think better input methods on PPC footprint are compelling to keep PPCs in a good size market segment.

Better PIM solution coming to mainstream PPC? Will A real innovative PPC hardware making please stand up, eck-em :multi: HP, and buy a best in breed software PIM marker, eck-em , Pocket Innovations and market a cheap device, eck-em H1935 or the like, and see how it effects their sales which are already good because they innovate their devices and the diversity of them. We all know from sales numbers posted on our beloved PocketPCThouhgts that HP is way ahead in the devices sold category and I think this is due to there innovative design and in how they position their devices. I mean most anyone can find a PPC from HP that fits there needs. I think the biggest sales jump was after HP started making sleek “NON sleeve” expansion built in PPCs. So throw in a killer PIM with Pocket Informant and now you have PIM +POCKETTV +swiss army knife or PIM +swiss army knife.

Now if a vendor like Sprint of Verizon or a slower GPRS provider got together with the likes of HP :beer: or someone else and offered wireless network coverage to some 85+% of the population and a back end like Good for Push E-mail, LOOK OUT. And if you are going to have that solution you might as well make the phone built in. The price of the G1000 or XDA II makes it not exactly Joe Smoe solution and for PPCs to move forward PPCs need to be appealing to Joe Smoe who is not going to spend time at PocketPCThoughts and or tinker with his swiss army PPCs (it is hard for me to say that, I love this site and my swiss army knife). A 4xxx, or 19xx series HP with good network coverage, built in PIM (not default Microsoft PIM. I have another post about how this is a easier said than done. HERE (http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=16089&highlight) I mean how many of us install a better PIM right off the bat because it works so much better and I think many would agree that a PIM like PI is better but they just don’t want to buy it, install it, or don’t know about it.) right out of the box that cost under 300 dollars and you have all the makings of PIM +Push E-Mail +swiss army knive. Two killer apps for the masses and a swiss army knife for us Macivers of PPCs. Many people spend near 300 dollars for the lastest cool flip phone and I get unlimited data and a ton of voice minuets with sprint for 45 dollars. You can get data and fewer minuets for 35 and that is today, so what about tomorrow? Looks to me like this market is ready to explode if there would be a little collaboration with hardware, software, and network vendors; or if a HP buys a PIM maker just a hardware and network vendor. I think the baby steps were laid with XDA and G1000 but bring the price down and market me Joe Smoe. PPC makers!!! Don’t lets this opportunity pass you by. :bangin:[/url]