'PPC are dead' thesis

[Gremmie]

Ok, so there has been a lot of talk and mention about the comments on the death of the PPC. I think that quote has been taken a little differently than what is was suppose to mean, possibly it was put poorly by the speaker. Nevertheless, I'm going to put out what I think it meant.

The PDA obviously isn't dead, but it is dying, soon to be replaced by smart phones. The PDA is dead only in the sense that it no longer promises accelerated long-term growth. However, there has been contradictory data for this considering the release of PDA sales in Europe/Middle East/Africa. Nevertheless, long-term data releases has pegged PDA sales to be about a steady 11 million annually. Corporations that sell stock are different when it comes to policy making, it doesn't matter if they maintain sales, it depends on marginal increases each quarter and matching estimates. So if the PDA division has not increased revenues, then the corporation will view the division as dead. Therefore, a division must keep increasing revenue by reinnovating, and when one company (Symbian) announce the PDA is dead and release plans to develop more smart phones, wouldn't another company (Toshiba) announce they too think the PDA is dead?

Despite this, I must say just because they said it, doens't mean they're right. As I mentioned before, PDA sales in Europe/Africa/Middle East sales have risen, partially due to a new OS release, it will be interesting if Palm's will experience a growth after PalmOS 6 is released. Also, we're still in the introductory years of having sub-$200 PPC's; how will this effect demand? College teenagers and first-timers may be more tempted and will later advance to higher priced models (same thing happens in the car industry). And finally, announcing the death of the PDA can be self-predicating, killing confidence can easily kill demand. So, they aren't announcing the PDA is dead, but they could be telling it to play dead.

Those are my thoughts, have at it.

[Thinkingmandavid]

I personally do not believe the ppc/pda is dead.
Palm now has their site as 'Palmone'...they are doing this in taking a new direction with thier products recognizing that the climate in pda's is changing so they are wanting to stay in the game and headed in a new direction. They are offering pda phones and are full force in that area. They have made the models small and equipped or the future of their market. For instance, adding a keyboard to the pda, bt, wi fi, cheaper models, business models, portrait to landscape, etc.

HP as well is following along, the 4xxx shows us the keyboard model and they have made cheaper models, all in one models such as bt and wi fi, etc.

If the pda is 'dead' then why bother bringing out new models of pda's? It would be a waste of research and development to do so.
How about if we email bill gates and ask if he thinks the pda/ppc is dead?
If so, when can we expect the last one to be produced so we can stock up on them? OH and how long will we get support and warranty?

It seems to me, "the pda is dead" is said in a certain connotation, yet it may have been missed, or maybe not. Maybe the person who said this should be emailed, or maybe his ass was chewed out already.

If it is about the margin then they are obviously thinking about that because of new product development. If you have been to best buy and seen a new brochure that is out, you would see that HP has included in theirs information about blue tooth. There has been some arguing going on in a bt thread, but HP is talking about it in their brochures. Interesting how it is still being produced in current and future models and available as an option.
At the back of that HP brochure it shows the value of bt to pda, cellphone, printer, and pc.....

[Gremmie]

They are offering pda phones and are full force in that area. They have made the models small and equipped or the future of their market. For instance, adding a keyboard to the pda, bt, wi fi, cheaper models, business models, portrait to landscape, etc.

If the pda is 'dead' then why bother bringing out new models of pda's? It would be a waste of research and development to do so.

That's what I was tyring to say, PDA's aren't dead, but dying, and are being replaced by smartphones. I should have also elluded that when I say smart phones, I mean any kind of combination of phone and PDA, whether or not it is primarially a PDA is symantics.

The PDA obviously isn't dead, but it is dying, soon to be replaced by smart phones

You're right, there won't be a sudden end to PDA's, but even some 'dead' things stay around (e.g., floppy drives).

[Thinkingmandavid]

smart phones are cool but the screen size will be an issue. I do not believe that pda's in that sense will die. if they get rid of them then they will have to put something in its place. millions of people using them they just dont all of a sudden disappear....what technology would replace a pda? smart phone? no, unless it would go from small to larger as pda's have gone from larger to small????

[Abba Zabba]

smart phones are cool but the screen size will be an issue. I do not believe that pda's in that sense will die. if they get rid of them then they will have to put something in its place. millions of people using them they just dont all of a sudden disappear....what technology would replace a pda? smart phone? no, unless it would go from small to larger as pda's have gone from larger to small????

The only thing I can think of that can replace a pda would be something that can be rolled or folded up into a small "incoveniencing" package. Wasn't there an article about something like that a while back :?:

As to the death of the pda. It won't happen. That's my predicion...atleast not for a few years. I believe that the death of innovation is what is the limiting factor in pda sales. If you were shoppin around a few months back for a pda, could you really tell which one was "obvioously" different from the other (not including branding). It's innovation that is dying not the pda itself. It's time that the pda oem's take a radical look at this segment of consumer electronics and reevaluate they approacd. 0X

[Gremmie]

I think you're thinking too much about now, I'm trying to get towards the furture more. You mentioned R&D, today's technology depends on past R&D, what will today's R&D contribute to tomorrow? Pocket PC's, screens, and wireless technology has come a long way just over 3 years. Why can't smartphones develop rapidly over 2 or 3 years?

You mentioned screen size, a valid point, but we've all seen the blurb here and there about the developments of foldable lcd displays. An executive talking about a death of the PDA can be signalling a drop in R&D into specific PDA technology, so a drop in today's R&D technology would not be seen for a few years.

edit:
I believe that the death of innovation is what is the limiting factor in pda sales.

I'm curious if you would venture to attribute this to a drop in R&D funding.

[Abba Zabba]

I think you're thinking too much about now, I'm trying to get towards the furture more. You mentioned R&D, today's technology depends on past R&D, what will today's R&D contribute to tomorrow? Pocket PC's, screens, and wireless technology has come a long way just over 3 years. Why can't smartphones develop rapidly over 2 or 3 years?

You mentioned screen size, a valid point, but we've all seen the blurb here and there about the developments of foldable lcd displays. An executive talking about a death of the PDA can be signalling a drop in R&D into specific PDA technology, so a drop in today's R&D technology would not be seen for a few years.

edit:
I believe that the death of innovation is what is the limiting factor in pda sales.


I'm curious if you would venture to attribute this to a drop in R&D funding.

My mention of screen size further contributes to my idea that it is innovation that is dying. I only used that example since Thinkingmandavid spoke about smartphones.

I would say the lack of innovation has something to do with a drop in R&D funding. You have to look at the Macro picture vs. est. ROI. Most tech businesses have been suffering due to a down turn in the market so sales were down. Now that consumer/ business disposable income is starting to creep back into everyone's wallets, I think we will see that correlate over to more funding for different ideas.

[surur]

A short comment.

The unconnected PDA is dead or dying. Just as you cant find a computer without a built-in modem these days, in 2-5 years every real PDA will have some kind of WAN connection option. And they will cost the same as PDA's do now.

All the excitement about WIFI and bluetooth etc, is all about being able to connect to the internet when ever and where-ever, and that has been the killer app for all computers since 1995.

I could expand on this, but the best object lesson is to look at the upcoming products from the major manufacturers, and notice how many of them include GSM etc.

Just because the unconnected PDA is dead does not however mean symbian etc all is going to take over. HP and Toshiba will be just as good at intergrating the appropriate hardware into their devices, and things will not really change very much from that POV. However the way we use our devices will change alot, and they will become real "knowledge terminals" and multi-modal communication devices, much much more flexible than a laptop or desktop.

So in fact its that old sci-fi dream that is finally becoming reality.

Anyways, my 2 c

Surur

[jpjehu]

I personally don't understand. I couldn't imagine trying to input data onto a spreadsheet, watch a video, search stuff in a dictionary/bible, play a detailed game of any kind, or look at pictures on a 1" x 1" screen. For me - smartphones will never replace the pda simply because as soon as they increase the screen size to adequate usability the unit would be too big to use as a phone. IMO the pda will only increase in it's own specific capabilities (better screens, more creative ergonomics). I think web surfing on a 3.8" pda screen isn't the most entertaining thing to do, very much less a screen even half that size. Who would want to read email or an ebook 10 words at a time? I can fathom the idea if many of the basic pda functions weren't needed or were minimized in ease of use or frequency, but then the product would be for an entirely different group of consumers. Like I said before, this is only my viewpoint, but again - I don't understand.

[Gremmie]

Well, some of it is you have to look at the future technologies. Articles have appeared where they are demoing foldable LCD screens, thus making longer PDA screens on a flip-phone possible. No rational person would want a smaller screen, but I am proposing that executives are indirectly announcing more R&D monies into smart phones, thus making advancements in smart phones, like bigger screens, possible a couple of years down the road.

[TopDog]

The unconnected PDA is dead or dying. Just as you cant find a computer without a built-in modem these days, in 2-5 years every real PDA will have some kind of WAN connection option.
I agree. Since I bought a MS SmartPhone about a month ago, I haven't used my PPC at all, except when I'm home in my sofa, surfin' with my WiFi-card.

I don't bring to PPC to work anymore, don't syncronize it, just use it for pleasure at home. Sure I miss the touch-screen and Agenda Fusion, but I've sacrifised that for the comfort of only carrying one device.

When PPC Phone Edition devices come with better battery and lower prices, I will buy one, but untill then, I will stick with my SmartPhone...

[Thinkingmandavid]

IF they put more money into R&D it doesnt mean good bye to pda's. it means they want to be competitive in another niche market which is smart phones and in the pda market. If you have ppc that has wi fi and someone else doesnt then it is niche. If you have a little more than then the next guy you could get more sales. Pda's are a highly competitive market just like cell phones are.

Technolog advancing is the key and friends to changes in these markets. are we going to watch cell phones go away because of smart phones? pda phones? no we are not, we are going to see manufacturers up the ante in their particular field so that teh field doesnt die, if the field dies then companies die with it, just not happening. :wink:

I dont see the death of pda's.... necessity is the mother of invention...

[Duncan]

The suggestion from some quarters is that the advent of the smartphone, Tablet PC and ultra-portable laptop have signed the PDA's death warrant.

My take? Never believe any prediction about a death until you see the corpse or attend the funeral...

Some famous predictions of the past that followed a similar line:

Radio is dead (1950s as TV took off).
Cinema is dead (1980s as video took off)
Video is dead (predicted in the late 1980s with the advent of laserdisc; predicted again in the late 1990s with the advent of DVD)
The PC is dead (predicted at various times with the advent of games consoles, better spec'ed laptops, dumb terminals etc.)
The fixed line telephone is dead (predicted in the 1990s as mobiles took off)

What happened in each case? Something unpredicted that turned expectations on their heads. Radios became smaller, portable, stereo, digital, specialised (each time keeping a step ahead). Cinema evolved into a multiplex based social experience. Video benefited form increasingly cheap machines and media, new markets and conflicting DVD standards. The PC evolved to do more than anyone expected. The fixed line telephone became ever cheaper to use, broadband came to make greater use of the wires, mobile usage remained comparatively expensive...

So the PDA, like every other technology whose death has been predicted, will likely find new niches, new avenues, new uses that have not been predicted yet. Few technologies die - they simply get re-invented and refined.

Analysts - what do THEY know...?! :)

[Thinkingmandavid]

Im telling you there is more going on behind the scenes than we know about at all the pda companies.

[JustinGTP]

I agree, the foldablility is where its at. If you had a foldable PDA on a Foldable Keyboard with phone capabalilites running Windows XP with 1gb memory - now thats where its going.

-Justin.

PDA is not dead, its evolving :wink:

[Thinkingmandavid]

I agree with justin that the pda is evolving. STrangest thing is how people think or wonder why it is dead. the guy who said that is a moron in my opinion. ask bill gates if he thinks that.

[Gremmie]

I agree with justin that the pda is evolving. STrangest thing is how people think or wonder why it is dead. the guy who said that is a moron in my opinion. ask bill gates if he thinks that.

It's not dead, nor do I believe it was suppose to be taken literally.

Obviously the PDA isn't dead, it's apparent in the retail stores. But ask yourself why would two exec's say the PDA is dead when it's apparent that they're not? Could it be that they are signaling a drop off in current R&D for the PDA divisions? My thesis is that they are diverting more money into smartphone technology, and by stopping current PDA R&D, they are essentially shortening the lifespan of the PDA.

When new phones come out, many are including PIM technologies, and those using proprietary OSes offer additional software. Isn't that a smart phone? Maybe not, but I think we can agree Series 60 phone's and Microsoft smart phone's are indeed smart phones. So if a super-majority of phones have adopted a standard OS, will there be a need for PDA's? Maybe. Only if they solve technology issues with smart phones(i.e., small screen, size, battery life). How do you solve technology issues? R&D.