PDA is Dead - Long Live the PDA

[Gremmie]

The Economist wrote a good article about the death of the PDA, and the resurrection of the PDA--and no, I didn't accidently use PDA in contradictory terms. They interperet the meaning of what the Symbian CEO said a few weeks ago and indirectly summerize the statement of the Toshiba executive. I agree with the message of the story, that is, the PDA is dead, but it's karma will live on in a phone body.

http://www.economist.com/business/displayStory.cfm?story_id=2143700

[Thinkingmandavid]

This is the first thing I disagreed with upon reading the article
The PDA market will never be a mass market,” says Cindy Wolf, an analyst at In-Stat/MDR, a market-research firm. Almost everyone who wants a PDA, she says, now has one.

I do not agree that everyone who wants one has one. That is crap! Everyday people walk in the stores wanting a pda/ppc/palm, etc. Sure there are those who want to upgrade, (which of course from a palm to a ppc is an upgrad :wink: ) but there is still many people without who want to have.

The two camps have arrived at the same result—a hybrid PDA-phone—from opposite directions.


Smart phone primarily a phone, pda phone primarily a pda....which ever you need the most is the one you will buy.


PalmSource is, he says, well placed to compete with Symbian and Microsoft to provide the software to power pocket-sized devices.


duh! :roll: like this guy would say anything else since he works for palm. Symbian rocks, anyone who has used that product can tell you it is stable and worth owning. I wish there were more pda's with this OS. I used and loved it, so far it has been my best pda experience :)

[Gremmie]

This is the first thing I disagreed with upon reading the article
The PDA market will never be a mass market,” says Cindy Wolf, an analyst at In-Stat/MDR, a market-research firm. Almost everyone who wants a PDA, she says, now has one.

I do not agree that everyone who wants one has one. That is crap! Everyday people walk in the stores wanting a pda/ppc/palm, etc. Sure there are those who want to upgrade, (which of course from a palm to a ppc is an upgrad :wink: ) but there is still many people without who want to have.

I think what is meant to be derived from it is that the barrier that once kept most people from buying a PDA-price-is not much of an issue anymore.

It's like me saying, everyone who wants a car has one. Obviously not everyone who wants one has one, but there are cheap cars available and those not owning one either make sub-par income or are reserving funds until they can buy a BMW.

[ultach]

Battery life is more important to me than an integrated Phone
and PDA. My wife and I used to own cell phones. But to save
money with the arrival of our baby, we cancelled our phones.
I use a PocketPC and she uses a planner book. I am quite
happy with my iPAQ 2215.

Sean

[hollis_f]

This is the first thing I disagreed with upon reading the article
The PDA market will never be a mass market,” says Cindy Wolf, an analyst at In-Stat/MDR, a market-research firm. Almost everyone who wants a PDA, she says, now has one.

I do not agree that everyone who wants one has one. That is crap! Everyday people walk in the stores wanting a pda/ppc/palm, etc. Sure there are those who want to upgrade, (which of course from a palm to a ppc is an upgrad :wink: ) but there is still many people without who want to have.
I'm sure I'm not the only one who has friends asking advice on what PPC to buy. The frequency of those requests is definitely increasing, so I'm now selling one iPAQ 2210 per month (perhaps I should ask for commission?). But I've still got a lot of friends who are contemplating a purchase.

[Martin I Pettinger]

hollis_f

You've given me some good advice in the past through PPCThoughts. Interested in your comment about "selling one iPAQ 2210 a month"

I have given PDA advice to folks too - one got a Toshiba, another got a Dell. The guy who got the Toshiba got it for a good price and he only wanted it for some basic stuff! The guy that got the Dell again got it for a good price - through our company I think who buy Dell for Desktops and Laptops.

Anyway I digress - I am torn between the iPAQ 1940 and the iPAQ 2210 to replace my aging iPAQ 3850. Question is why should I buy the 2210 over the 1940 other than for the CF slot. The only thing I can see me using the CF slot for is memory - no intention of using WiFi, GPS, CF modems, CF radio etc, etc. Nor a microdrive.

The iPAQ 1940 is about £60 cheaper as well I think - so CF aside - what does the 2210 offer over the 1940?

Martin

[Thinkingmandavid]

I disagree, if you read the article they are saying because of it not being a wide open market, the pda/phone is now going to take the place of the demand for pda's. Hybrid or not, I feel their focus is off, because if they really felt there was a big market for pdas, then they would have said so in the article. Of course, the palm guy should really think about wording, because palm would not survive on pda/phones alone. :wink:

[Duncan]

One of my favourite articles to read is the type that appears in anniversary issues of PC magazines. You know the one I mean - the 'this is what we [experts and journalists heavily involved in the IT industry] got wrong' article. Time and time again we see how industry analysts, magazine journalists, company directors and, gosh, even us (!) fail spectacularly in our predictions for the future!

Some classics - a magazine in the UK predicted that digital mobile would be just a fad and that mobile phones would still be analogue well into the 21st Century. The same magazine also predicted WAP would be a success and the killer GPRS feature with people not wanting full internet access or e-mail via mobile networks...!

Another magazine, now defunct, once managed to predict (when the first 'Palm Pilots' appeared) that there was no appetitie for PDAs and that they had already proved to be a failure - though they predicted big things for clamshells like the Psions...

So basically any prediction as to the future of PDAs is doomed to failure - largely because of the entirely unpredictable human equation.

What we can do is see what direction we appear to be moving in 'currently' (which allows for a very short term prediction). We do seem to be moving towards wireless devices and devices that do more than traditional PDAs. Whether we can predict anything beyond that is anyone's guess (did I mention the magazine article two years ago that predicted tablet PCs would rapidly outsell laptops on introduction? Or the one from four or five years ago which predicted that laptops would always be a niche product - currently they are starting to outsell desktops...).

Martin,

If a CF card slot is really not going to be a factor to you - why not wait a couple of weeks and buy an iPAQ 41xx? Or even look into an O2 XDA II? The 2210 is nice - but it really is the CF slot that you are paying extra for when compared to a 1940...

[Martin I Pettinger]

-
Duncan

Thanks for the feedback - indeed the XDA2 and 4150 are devices I am considering. I think the 4150 will be too much for my budget though - my guess is that it will be about £400 in the UK. I can get a iPAQ 2210 for £300 at the moment. As for the XDA - I am not sure I want a phone and PDA combination. Saying that I do not have a mobile at the moment and I'm considering getting one. Wonder when the XDAII is due out!

Martin

[Thinkingmandavid]

I agree with what you said Duncan So basically any prediction as to the future of PDAs is doomed to failure - largely because of the entirely unpredictable human equation.



Human nature is the total unpredictability of the entire world.

I have heard some people say they dont want both device as one. If one breaks or goes bad then the other is affected. It is true, but I am sure there are still those who would want both. I wouldnt mind having both, I just dont currently like anything that is available now.

What we can do is see what direction we appear to be moving in 'currently' (which allows for a very short term prediction

That is what I was thinking when I read the article. It always amazes me how 'analysts' never think beyond themselves :)

[Gremmie]

No one had really addressed the comment about PDA sales remaining steady. So what's the interpretation when PDA prices drop, and sales remain steady? Doesn't that mean that demand remains steady despite pricing?

Demand is not as unpredictable as many may think, especially when there is established market history. It is hard to predict when products first come out (i.e., that naysaying artcile about the long-term sales of the inital Palm Pilot's). To an executive, if prices drop and demand remains steady, it is no longer profitable. Remember, to those guys, it's not about selling, it's about improving sales from quarter to quarter.

[Badandy]

Posted: Mon Oct 20, 2003 2:42 am Post subject:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

hollis_f

You've given me some good advice in the past through PPCThoughts. Interested in your comment about "selling one iPAQ 2210 a month"

I have given PDA advice to folks too - one got a Toshiba, another got a Dell. The guy who got the Toshiba got it for a good price and he only wanted it for some basic stuff! The guy that got the Dell again got it for a good price - through our company I think who buy Dell for Desktops and Laptops.

Anyway I digress - I am torn between the iPAQ 1940 and the iPAQ 2210 to replace my aging iPAQ 3850. Question is why should I buy the 2210 over the 1940 other than for the CF slot. The only thing I can see me using the CF slot for is memory - no intention of using WiFi, GPS, CF modems, CF radio etc, etc. Nor a microdrive.

The iPAQ 1940 is about £60 cheaper as well I think - so CF aside - what does the 2210 offer over the 1940?

Martin




I have a 2215 and I love it!

Here are the advantages
PROS
-CF
-Bluetooth (love it)
-I actually like the form factor more than the 1945
-Better battery life (amazing)
-Doesnt have a yellow screen like 1940
CONS
-Not that much Ipaq FIle store (13 mb vs. 3)
-Rubber grips fall of sometimes



Thats all I can think of

[Itanium]

Time to revoke this topic a bit. Who ever from Toshiba commented PPC is dead should be shown their own 805 now :). Less than forthnight ago they were saying its dead and now introduced this high end device :).

Huh!

[Thinkingmandavid]

I am not for certain why the comment was made, but I do not see Toshiba giving up on pda's
I agree that it is about profits at that level, but that doesnt mean the profits are gone, if they were then hp would get out of the market first probably. The economy is a big factor in this equation. we may have 'past results', but those results do not adequetly tell future results because of 9/11 and other major factors. things are much different now, and i feel for most it is treading on new ground because consumers are changing the way they did things from prior to 9/11 and other factors.