The PDA Vendor's Biggest Enemy: Disinterest In Upgrades

[Janak Parekh]

<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://www.startribune.com/stories/535/3911261.html' target='_blank'>http://www.startribune.com/stories/...35/3911261.html</a><br /><br /></div>This is an interesting article: it specifically cites Palm and the difficulty the company has had in motivating people to buy upgrades. Of course, the data is skewed because of the fact that, until very recently, Palm devices offered little new, but the general problems confront all manufacturers.<br /><br />"...many customers are so happy with their PDAs that the industry can't get them to upgrade -- and that sent PDA sales tumbling last year. Analysts say customer upgrades are essential for rejuvenating PDA sales because there don't seem to be many potential new PDA customers except at the low end of the market, where devices cost less than $100."<br /><br />One argument I've heard in response to this is that cell phones are poised to close the gap and take over the majority of the organizer market. But are consumers upgrading those, either? Both markets should be busily working developing new killer apps -- and, indeed, some of them are getting close with things like integrated Wi-Fi for hotspots -- but only time will tell if this will click with more than "us gadgeteers".

[nosmohtac]

They can't have it both ways.

A previous front page post was describing how OEM's were making money on accessories for their devices, and trying to make those accessories proprietary to keep customers coming back to that same brand.

I, like many other gadget geeks, am not loyal to a particular brand, but if no one develops a device that far exceeds what my current one can do, I am not inclined to shell out big bucks.

I like having the latest and greatest, but my wallet does not always agree. I have already purchased 3 different pocket pc's in 3 years, and I think I have hit a plateau for now. We haven't seen that great leap yet. I thought Xscale was going to do it, but no major speed jump. We haven't seen many devices coming out with a major jump in RAM or ROM. And, I have yet to see that killer device, that has all the goodies: built in wifi and bluetooth, removeable battery, CF and SD and built in keyboard/thumboard. Some have come close, and maybe that's what they want to do, to get people to buy and try different new devices.

It is definitely a problem for us as well as them. At what point do we justify spending another bunch of cash to get a new device and all the accessories for that device.

[michael0000]

They can't have it both ways.

I, like many other gadget geeks, am not loyal to a particular brand, but if no one develops a device that far exceeds what my current one can do, I am not inclined to shell out big bucks.

That is exactly why I am still using E-125, unless a PPC like genio e550c is available here (only available in Japan at the moment... :| ). In the mean time, I'll only upgrade if I managed to make it rest in pieces. :mrgreen:

[Cardie]

It's like Windows and the PC market all over again, a little bit more speed here, a tweak in the OS there, tiny incremental changes that try to force you to keep on the ever upward path - strange the core functions (Diary / Contacts / Database / Jotter) never change, and are 80% of the PDA daya to day use in the normal user.

Why is it I still carry a HP200LX in my bag, carrying all my addresses and notes - even though I;'ve got a 5 hour colour PDA as well? Why do I tend top use that old machine for important details?

becasue (a) it's proved itself reliable (b) it works and (c) there is no need to change. It's a fallacy that you MUST have the latest and greatest thing - and now that PDA users have rumbled this - the maufacturers are in trouble.

[bjornkeizers]

I, like many other gadget geeks, am not loyal to a particular brand, but if no one develops a device that far exceeds what my current one can do, I am not inclined to shell out big bucks.

Exactly! I bought a Compaq Ipaq 3630 in April 2000. After slightly over a year, the battery broke, and rather then ship it to god knows where and pay a zillion dollars, I sold it for a reasonable price [I allways expect them to break, so I don't worry about getting a certain price when I sell a device] and I bought a HP Jornada in November 2002. Now, the jornada is a 206 mhz device with only 32 mb ram and running PPC 2002.

I know there's better, newer devices out there; and some of those at a very reasonable price [Axims, 1915's, Toshiba's] but I'm not upgrading.

Why?

Because my device is still doing a great job! I can read my books, do my work, play games on it. Sure, some extra ram or a fast processor would be nice, but why spend >300 euro's on a device that, in essence, doesn't add anything to my current one?

And if I were to switch, I'd have to buy new accesoiries, memory, so the cost doesn't begin to make up for the benefits of a new device.

[PlayAgain?]

It's a fallacy that you MUST have the latest and greatest thing - and now that PDA users have rumbled this - the maufacturers are in trouble.

I totally agree with our lightsabre wielding Scott! ;-) I still think that the most stable mobile OS I've ever used is that used in the Psion Series 5. That never crashed!

Why is it some folk find it so difficult to understand that sometimes, people don't upgrade simply because they're happy with what they've got? I know what it's like to get the bug, the itch where I just gotta get that thing because it looks so nice! Hehe!



If you need a keyboard that you can wash in the washing machine, go buy one, otherwise, don't.

[Zathras]

They just don't get it. Where do these companies get the idea that they are giving us reasons to upgrade?

My first pocket pc was an iPAQ 3670 I bought 2 1/2 years ago. It had a 320x240 color screen, 206mhz Strongarm processor, great mp3 sound, and 64mb of ram. Do the specs sound familiar? I upgraded to an iPAQ 3955 last year. It was a marginal improvement over the 3670 except for the gorgeous backlit screen. I could have waited longer to upgrade, but I wanted to give my 3670 to my Mom.

What improvements have desktop pc's made in 2 1/2 years? I think we have gone from a 700mhz Pentium 3 to a 3ghz Pentium 4 with corresponding improvements in storage and video.

I play DivX movies on my iPAQ 3955 and I could use twice the processing power. I'd also like to see demanding games like Pocket Quake playable on a pocket pc. (Be sure to invest a little time in beefing up the control buttons and their placement too).

When I see a significant increase in processing power I'll be the first person to upgrade. The processing power should be scalable though so people can cut back to conserve battery power. I don't worry too much about battery drainage. I have a 5gb Toshiba hard drive and have learned to compensate for battery drain by staying near to a wall socket and buying more batteries.

[LazyDonkey]

Totally agree with all the posts so far. Currently using and HP568 with a Socket bluetooth card and see no reason to change.

I loved my Psion 5MX but it didn't like my Win2K machine at work and it became too much of a problem to keep it sync'd. Miss that keybaord tho......

However, I think the phone manufacturers have a better idea of how it works. I change my phone every year without fail and can't wait for the T610 to come out here in the UK, to replace my T68i. In my opinion every new generation of phones offers real benefits, like BT, battery life, colour screens and so on. It makes the £100 or so to upgrade seem worth it (especially as i always get that for my old phone).

£100 makes sense to upgrade. £300/ £400 for a new PPC does not, especially when the new processors don't actually make the apps any faster ! :roll:

[Zensbikeshop]

5Mx there's a blast from the past.

I used to work for Psion and had many Psion handhelds. I had also seen what Spion were developing before they bottled out of the PDA market - damn shame!

A well executed Symbian based PDA would be brilliant.

Getting back to the topic - in the past I have upgraded PDAs far too often if I'm honest.

I'm about to change again; back from a Palm to a PPC - the new HP 2200 - but do believe that that device has what I need for the foreseeable future.

I'll be interested to see where PDAs and Smartphones go over the next 2 years.

[alcdroid]

I have the same way of thinking as a lot of people here.

I myself had a Sony Clie S500 sometime in 2000. It had a 256 color screen that had the same backlight problem as the M505, a 20Mhz Dragonball processor, 8Mb RAM, and an expansion slot. Many others came and went in the past 2 or so years, but I stuck with it simply because the new ones had nothing more to offer. MP3 player? I had to get a bigger memory stick and I already bought a cheap MP3 player. Bright Hi-Res screen? Don't need it and not worth shelling out a month's salary on. I then decided to upgrade to a PPC because it can do so much more for my money and because Palm Licencees took forever to get to the Zire 71, TT/C, TG50.

Also, I got the Axim Advanced for one reason: so I don't need to upgrade. Sure, I'll buy accessories and peripherals, but I don't see myself shelling out more money for a PPC2003 unit simply because they don't seem to offer any more than what I already have. No matter what anyone says, US$300 (which is, so far, the cheapest a new model is rumored to be) is a lot of money.

This is probably also the flaw in Palm's strategy with the original Zire. Sure a number of those who got Zires as gift might be interested in upgrading, but there are numerous practical people who wouldn't. I get a asked a lot by friends who still keep their PalmIIIs on why should they upgrade. What they have already works fine for them.

That's my 2 cents. Cheers!

[rlobrecht]

I agree. I've had 5 handhelds in the last 12 years or so, and the only time I've upgraded for features was from Casio E-11 to iPaq 3630. Color was a huge leap. The rest of my upgrades were due to hardware failure that I decided wasn't worth fixing. I just upgraded from an iPaq 3630 that has developed the dreaded screen flip after three years of use to a Toshiba E740.

HP95LX broken screen
Casio E-10 broken screen
Casio E-11 abandoned for color
Compaq iPaq 3630 screen flip
Toshiba E-740

[D.psi]

This article has a funny statistic, they figure that once the market has reached 20% of American households the market will have saturated. Okay, maybe it's true... But out of those 20% of American households how many will be multiple PDA households.

My wife and I have a nearly average Canadian household, two kids, dual income, two cats, etc... We both have PDAs, they are identical, and were purchased at the same time, like the previous two, and likely like the next two. We come up with enough money to buy two (2) PDAs at a go, and we are a PPC family. Which typically will involve ~$1000CDN for the handhelds and then there's the accessory cost.

I figure that when the kids grow up some, maybe when they become teenagers, they will also get one (1) handheld, courtesy Mom and Dad. So our household will be a four (4) PDA household. Mind you we won't be buying them on a yearly basis. That will be too expensive.

The accessory factor also plays a part. We don't want to have to invest every year in a new storage medium, auxiliary input mechanism (keyboard), and other misc stuff (extra craddle, camera, what have you). No siree, we'll be sitting tight until the units die a horrible death, at which point we'll upgrade.

We are coming close to that point with our Jornada 548, both digitizers are starting to show problems (shorts, etc...), where the lines are really ragged. I guess we shouldn't complain, we've had these units for a fair while now. But we'll have to re-purchase our favourite apps for whatever device we'll want.

We won't purchase the top of the line unit, but we also won't purchase the bottom of the barrel. I'm guessing we may go for the 2200 series Ipaq. This may be a worthwhile reason to get into WiFi at home, which we haven't done yet, as we have no compelling reason to do so. We'll see.

D.psi

[krisbrown]

YUP. I'm still waiting for the killer hardware device, but it won't be a PPC, smartphones are just about to bridge the gap, the new Siemens SX-1 may be my next one. Camera, video, sd slot, bluetooth, GPRS, mp3, fm radio, triband, 1000mah battery, java, full outlook sync, usb connection, weighs 110gms, 99cc volume.

How come phones are improving at 10X the speed of PPC's?

http://mobile.burn.com/review.jsp?Page=3&Id=239

[cyp]

IMHO, one of the ways to get people to upgrade is to make PDAs a lifestyle device, like what Nokia did to the mobile phone industry. In my country, some mobile phones are sold at equivalent of one month's salary of a junior executive; but that doesn't stop people upgrading every year. The main reason for them is that the new phones are more stylish. It is seldom because of better functionality.

[Cameron_Talley]

Ok, does anyone want to explain this quote from the article to me:

"'A laptop is nowhere near as portable as a PDA, but it's easy to throw into a briefcase," Henderson said.'"

Say What? This doesn't make any sense at all. My iPAQ goes in my pocket, which is decidedy smaller than a breifcase.

Anyway, I have had a grand total of 4 PDA devices:

1. HP 100LX
2. HP 200LX
3. HP 620LX
4. iPAQ 3955

I have never been without a PDA since I was in 8th grade. However, I must admit that the first 3 devices were "Hand-me-downs" from my Dad.

my Previous device (620LX) lasted over 3 years, and I felt no need to upgrade. It did what I needed to do. The only reason I got the Pocket PC was that the 620LX began to have screen issues. After experiencing the Pocket PC, I wish I had upgraded earlier, because it is a world of difference.

So why don't I upgrade every year when the next best thing comes out? Simple: I don't follow this philosophy. If it works, don't fix it. I don't see the value in spending 500 dollars every year to get a new device when the old one works fine. I expect my Pocket PC to last at least two years, and hopefully longer than that. After all, most people don't by a car every year; they expect the one they have to last a few years before they trade it in.

[kaiden.1]

Why should I upgrade if there is really no need to? Come on; let's look at this seriously. What new addition or function is there that would require me to upgrade from what I have? Certainly the PPC platform isn't doing anything fancy enough to cause me to want to upgrade and the newest rumors coming out on the new PPC2003 platform still aren't anything necessary to have me upgrade, and I haven't seen anything in the software catagory that I can't already do with what I have got now! So neither software or hardware is coming out with anything to make me interested in doing an upgrade.

I really think that everyone just expects us to shell out another $600 just because another PPC comes out thats newer than the one 6 months ago? Whatever?!?! I would hope that everyone on this site isn't that stupid, unless of course they have money to burn :lol: I do think that the manufacturers believe that everyone will just jump because the new IPAQ is out? That is so ridiculous.

I don't think that I will be buying another PPC until perhaps next year? Maybe not. I am doing just fine.......... 8)

[kaiden.1]

Everyone keeps talking about how they change out their phones every year. But can I say one thing about that!

A Phone is A LOT Cheaper than a PPC! And Most people changing out their phones get discounts for having done so. I can go into any T-Mobile store and get good discounts on anything I buy having been a customer with them. So the MSRP isn't an issue. What PPC Manufacturer is willing to do that? Besides a phone is a lot more fun to carry around as a stylish devise than a PPC. It is just a whole different animal! It just isn't the same thing.

I have had my same phone for about 2 years. I generally upgrade it about every 2 years too. Mostly because it doesn't work so great anymore, and cost of a new battery is usually more than just a new phone.

Everyone needs a phone, but not everyone needs a PPC.

[bjornkeizers]

I think the key to making me upgrade is cutting the price by half, and doubling the specs every year. Then I'd upgrade.

That Ipaq 3630 I bought in 2000 still isn't outdated compared to new devices. It becomes outdated when it cannot perform the functions of a new device; but that's not the case with the Ipaq or the Jornada.

I think that quite a few of us still own PDA's from 2000 or 2001, and I for one am not about to upgrade my Jornada.. there just haven't been any improvements... Sure, they double the ram from 32 to 64.. big deal when I can get a 128 mb CF card for around 50 bucks! I'm not gonna upgrade because of that! And Xscale.. sure it's faster on paper, but do I really need that? No. It's not as if I can now play games on it and they get faster or anything.. and most software is still ARM compatible.. there's no need to buy an Xscale right now.

So if we take away those two, what are we left with? Nothing! Nothing at all! Are the screens bigger, better? Not really. Can I do more with a new device then with my old one? Yes, but not enough to pay $400 ..

Untill they quadruple the specs of my current device, I'm not planning an upgrade anytime soon, unless prices are slashed to at least half of the current level. When PPC's are at the 200 euro level, I'd happily upgrade every year.

[Zathras]

I'd argue that performance is the key to selling pocket pc's. What made the original iPAQ 3630 so popular? At the time of introduction it was nearly twice as fast as the fastest Casio. The name iPAQ became nearly synonymous with the term Pocket PC.

Since then things have stagnated badly. There is little reason for most of us to upgrade. Potential new users see little reason to shell out $500 for a pocket organizer, which is how I imagine most people see the pocket pc.

How are pocket pc's displayed at the Best Buys, CompUSA's, etc. out there? They are set out with only the basic software installed. How are you going to sell them when all the customer sees is pocket versions of desktop apps and solitaire?

Pocket pc's are capable of so much more. Any chance I get I show people a DivX movie playing and they say they had no idea a handheld could do that. Companies should promote and target the entertainment aspects of pocket pc's. I see little or no involvement by the companies in this area.

Right now I believe we could easily have 600mhz or faster X-Scale ppc's with ATI video chips and 200mhz memory to match the new 200mhz memory bus. Then get software writers to support the new hardware.

I like the new trend towards smaller pocket pc's. The 1900 series iPAQ is so cute. Too bad they crippled it. I've been eyeing the upcoming 2200 iPAQ. It isn't as pretty as the 1900 though and I'm guessing the performance still won't be much better than my 3955. I like the Toshiba e750 now, but I'm not sure what it is capable of. It has an ATI video chip and I believe it kicks butt playing DivX. I don't care much for it's looks though. Toshiba should have rounded the ends. I'm also waiting for the new operating system to come out.

Many people now are waiting for the new pocket pc's with the new operating system. Why wait when the new operating system is little different than what we have now? Well, because we learned from past experience that companies don't put in enough rom space for us to upgrade our operating systems. We are afraid if we buy now that we won't be able to upgrade later. Hint to the companies: Don't scrimp on rom space, give us much more than we need so we don't think we have to hold off on buying a new pocket pc.

[ghostppc]

I agree with all the posts here. Why would you want to upgrade every year for a new ppc that has the same crap on it? When newer models come out, you "ooh and ahh" over it. But realistically, what has improved on it? The speed might be slightly better and it may have one new function if that.

Who buys a new tv every year because there are newer ones on the market? Computers seem to be one area where people want the latest and greatest. But PCs usually have leaps and bounds of additions in hardware and software when they are upgraded. Most people won't buy a $2000 pc that has the same stuff on it as their current $1000 pc just because a new one has office 2000 instead of office 97.

[CTSLICK]

I sure didn't ditch my Casio EM-500 for an Axim just to get PPC 2002...or even any of the "PPC 2k2 only" software. It was a hardware upgrade for sure...needed an outdoor screen and a CF slot for a wireless card. The extra horspower and memory are also welcome. But really...now that I'm here with a device with good expansion possibilities it will probably take a hardware failure to drive me to purchase again. There just isn't anything compelling out there on the horizon....not for me anyway

[krisbrown]

With regards to my constant bleating on about smartphones, my smartphone has an app on it, which is the canines testicles, WEBVIEWER, 47kb Java applet, 19 dollars, and free access to their servers, they compress the whole web down to fit your particular phone, this wipes the floor with Pocket IE, which falls over trying to load anything but the sparsest of websites. I can not praise it enough, I now have FULL mobile web viewing, CNN, BBC, even this forum can be viewed and posted on.
This is the way forward, not just bunging on IE and hoping for the best
All forms, e-mails survive the compression, even PDF's are decoded and displayed.
I have for years used a PPC to surf, sticking to low graphic sites, but this is so sweet, one handed surfing 8) every link is a possibility.
And to make you feel ill, it works over my free wap, gprs access :D

[Zathras]

I was out at Circuit City here in Columbus, Georgia the other day. I was checking out the Toshiba e755 and I talked with the sales guy a bit. I showed him the Joe Cartoon Flash cartoon "The Boss" and the game "Torpedo Joe", and showed him a bit of the movie "Spiderman" on my iPAQ 3955. He had no idea a pocket pc could play Flash or movies.

He said they sold about 4 desktop pc's for every pocket pc sold. I wish I could get a consulting job selling pocket pc's there :)

I was hoping to beam over "Torpedo Joe" to an e755 and see if it played any better on the Toshiba. Of course they didn't have Macromedia Flash loaded on it. I can't really play the game on my 3955, it plays way too slow.

You can check out "The Boss" and "Torpedo Joe" here:

http://www.joecartoon.com/pages/torpedojoe/

http://www.joecartoon.com/pages/theboss/

Cut and paste the links into your browser's address bar as Joe has his site re-direct you to his home page. Try them on a desktop pc. To play them on a pocket pc you need to load Macromedia Flash and launch them with an html file or a launcher program.

[Will T Smith]

The biggest problem that manufacturers have isn't getting "UPGRADES". Their real challenge is to expand their market and reach a braoder range of customers.

The concept is that they need to make these devices "more relevant" to people. This was a pretty big problem in the computer biz for a LONG time. Software may be the key. The device literally has to be "nearly" as functional as a desktop device.

Needs:
1) Better handwriting recognition.

2) Better "built-in" software. Pocket Outlook apps now look fairly infantile with respect to Pocket Informant and Pocket Fusion.

3) Broader range of apps. Seriously, PocketPC needs a built in scientific calculator that would rival a $15 TI. We can leave HP Calc emulator to independents.

4) Better connectivity. Bluetooth should become STANDARD!!!!!

5) Better introduction to eBooks. Microsoft would do well to provide a free license for any book at an e-book retailer. "Call of the Wild" is kinda cool but won't really entice very many people to start reading on their PDA.

6) Update Microsoft Reader. The program can be VERY slow at times and has some weird indiosyntratic behavior. For instance, if one does a hard reset before shutting down it doesn't automatically return to your current book. Reader is VERY slow at switching from book to book. Maybe it's because I'm using a flash card, but wouldn't it be reasonable to use a streaming model/view controller so it can display the first couple pages without having to read the ENTIRE thing into memory.

Pocket Reader needs the same "voice reader" capability as the desktop version. This would effectively make it a "virtual" audio book.

7) Improve ActiveSync. Heck, I don't have to tell you this, Jason Dunn has the market cornered on this gripe. Provide a wizard to set up your preferences. SAVE any data in a "Sync-undelete" so you can recall any data that ActiveSync blasts away.



8) Update Media Player to automatically sync reduced bandwidth MP3s from your desktop, just like MusicMatch does. Sycnc based on playlists including "jukebox" style queries that automatically generated new context every time.

9) Improve the manageability of notes. Notes are an ABSOLUTE mess. ESPECIALLY voice notes.

10) Improve file management capabilities in general. The file browsers (for apps like word) don't distinguish between a root + sub-directories and just "files in this root directory".

11) An integrated, secure, journal application.

12) A more sophisticated version of Pocket Money.


You have to give consumers the sense that this is more of an "Appliance" than a hassle like a computer often is. It needs to have sophisticated capabilities "out-of-the box". It has to appeal to NEW users who wouldn't consider a PDA before.

Microsoft needs to market DIRECTLY to these untapped demographics.

1) Moms with busy schedules.

2) College and High-School students with "busy schedules" and a need for MP3.

3) TEACHERS and school administrators. With some support, they could get a lot of buys from school organizations. Especially if doing a lot of school information beyond calendar, and contacts is possible.

4) Small business owners.

etc...

Furthermore, Microsoft needs to make more people aware of the Cell-phone/Bluetooth bonding that will literally free the PDA and make internet available virtually anywhere in cities.

Geeks and enterprise is really the tip of the iceberg. Microsoft needs to analyze their markets and then IMPLEMENT functionality that appeals DIRECTLY to those markets. Their Windows sytle marketing simply won't work for PDAs because they don't have the same monopoly presence.