Why the Future Belongs to the Phone [Archive]

Jason Dunn

01-14-2003, 04:00 PM

<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://www.pcworld.com/features/article/0,aid,107879,00.asp' target='_blank'>http://www.pcworld.com/features/art...d,107879,00.asp</a> </div>"Eventually these devices will be remembered as amusing artifacts of an era when big, clunky cell phones could barely display a single line of capital letters. Today, new wireless phones have lots of memory, plenty of processing power, and highly readable screens. There should be no reason for you to carry two devices; PDA functions belong in your phone. This is not to say that PDA makers won't keep trying. Palm, for instance, has slashed prices to $99 for its stripped-down Zire and put Bluetooth in its wildly overpriced Tungsten T. But once your phone can sync with your calendar and your contact list, the Zire is just one more battery you have to manage. And spending extra for a Bluetooth phone so you can dial it with your Tungsten while performing a three-handed juggling act seems the height of techie ludicrousness. At least more and more PDAs this year will come with Wi-Fi built in, which should keep them useful for people who use specialized applications and for road warriors who want a quick hit of e-mail with their lattes." The author of this article, Stephen Manes, has some great points, but he doesn't quite state the obvious: non-connect PDAs that can't function as phones will be obsolete within a couple of years. There's an evolution that's definitely happening, though it's painfully slow to watch. PDAs are evolving towards phones by picking up cellular functions, and phones are evolving towards PDAs by picking up real operating systems and applications. The newest phones have more "PDA" in them than the newest PDAs have "phone" in them. The real question four to six years from now won't be a matter of which is "better" (a PDA or a phone) - neither one in it's current form will exist. Instead, every device will function as a phone, a data entry device, a data viewing device, and a general-purpose communications device (IM, IRC, etc.). The choices will be based on screen size, data input method, battery life, etc. - all the things we already take into account when buying a phone. What do you think?

Perry Reed

01-14-2003, 04:03 PM

Well, duh! ;)

Just kidding, of course. But yes, you're absolutely right; PDAs and phones will soon be one and the same, with both current form factors probably continuing.

What I'm more curious about is what new form factors may we see? How about a watch that functions as a phone/PDA? Something else entirely? I imagine clamshells (aka mini-notebooks) will have a place, too.

paris

01-14-2003, 04:12 PM

YES its already hapening, you see all the PDAs coming out with phone capabilities and you see phones with PDA functions.

Well i dint make it yet to move from a PDA to an XDA i thought i'd give them one more year to evolve and then make the switch to an XDA. For the moment i am carrying a 5450 and a T68, but in a year i think a will be carrying an XDA and a Bluetooth headset ;)

Sslixtis

01-14-2003, 04:24 PM

I want a "Global" like they have on the TV show Earth: The Final Conflict.
Wireless net access, video phone, voice controlled, and a touch screen that rolls up when not in use. Just a few more years and these should be viable too! 8O

Delta737

01-14-2003, 04:27 PM

I think that story is true. There already are some pretty good "PDAPhones" (Nokia 9210, XDA/MDA, SonyEricsson P800) and they are getting more functional and less heavy.

I, personally, like that SE P800 (I know, I'm a sinner, not a PPC :oops: but I just like it most)

I want a "Global" like they have on the TV show Earth: The Final Conflict.
Wireless net access, video phone, voice controlled, and a touch screen that rolls up when not in use. Just a few more years and these should be viable too!

We're on the same frequency man!!! I was thinking the same thing, they're THE mobile machines

Foo Fighter

01-14-2003, 04:35 PM

Unfortunately, I have to agree with Manes conclusion. The rise of the "Smartphone" is inevitable. PDAs just aren't catching on with the public like cell phones did. It's sad to see that after years of innovation, and cool gadgets, the PDA is still a niche platform. :cry:

Still, I think we have plenty of time before cell phones supplant PDAs, and best is yet to come. :)

The only criticism I can find in Stephan's article is that he has only limited experience with PDAs. For God's sake...the only device he has ever used is a REX. And he thinks he understands the multifaceted world of PDAs from using one long since discontinued device? M'kay. :roll:

lipinski77

01-14-2003, 04:47 PM

I think the phones will be the PDA's of the future (present). I hate the fact that I have to carry around multiple devices and remember to charge both of them and enter in all my contact information/ phone numbers at least twice. I currently do not have a way to sync the two.

I am waiting for the day when the "pocket pc" phones are available by more carriers and the consumer has more choices. (I'm also waiting for prices to come down. :wink: )

I just want to be connected all the time. 8)

Ilkka

01-14-2003, 04:53 PM

I think we will see (at least) three categories of "phones"

1. Basic Phone, very cheap, for markets like China, India (maybe 70%
of the shipments)
2. Smart Phone, like Nokia 7650/MS 2002, small size, Voice is #1 func
3. PDA/XDA = Pocket size PC, voice is 'just' one feature (also the
smallest volume, maybe 10% in three years) :(

midtoad

01-14-2003, 05:04 PM

Well, while everyone is agreeing, I beg to disagree. In the home stereo world, one could argue that separate components make no sense - after all, you're just paying for all those extra power supplies, and having to wire up all the connections between them. Why not just buy an integrated all-in-one entertainment box? Lots of people do.

Yet there continues to be a market for "unconnected" home stereo devices. Why? A main reason is that the purchasers place a value on being able to choose for themselves those particular features they want for each function. And they're willing to pay for them, since the component approach is the more costly one.

Why should it be any different with PDAs and phones? When you buy a PDA/phone combo, you're tying yourself into the manufactuter's constraints. If a better phone technology comes along, you have to upgrade the PDA as well.

I don't think that using a Tungsten to connect to the net via a Bluetooth phone is clunky at all. It's certainly smaller in size than some of the connected PDAs. And if I decide to switch phone service providers (e.g. from a GSM network to a CDMA network), I don't have to throw away my entire device.

But since the P in PDA stands for "personal", your conclusion may be different from mine.l

hrianto

01-14-2003, 05:09 PM

Remember the "Prime Directive" : INTEGRATION.

Kati Compton

01-14-2003, 05:15 PM

I must state again that my needs for a PDA are different than my needs for a phone in terms of screen size in particular. Plus, I want real buttons on a phone, not button images on a screen (PPCPE).

When I am no longer able to get what I want, I'll probably get a phone with PIM but not much if anything else, and one of those sub-sub-notebooks (Lifebook tiny one) and a slightly bigger purse....

ECOslin

01-14-2003, 05:15 PM

I want my cell phone to do it all.

I've before referred to Space:1999 where the Moonbase folks had a handheld communicator device that opened doors.

Well I want mine to access the internet, to call people, to turn off my car alarm and warm the engine, open garage doors, change the tv channel, work for weeks on low battery, turn on lights at home(over the internet when I'm away), and be able to crack walnuts with it.

And have it cheap to replace when I trash it.

Edward

Janak Parekh

01-14-2003, 05:20 PM

Yet there continues to be a market for "unconnected" home stereo devices. Why?
I don't necessarily agree here. The difference is that for pocketable devices, you generally have a limit on real estate for both your pocket and your hand. By integration, you gain in that regard.

I agree with Ilkka with the notion of three categories as the market stands today, but look at the Sony Ericsson P800: it's small enough to be a regular phone, but big enough to be a smart phone, and with a flip-down keypad to reveal the full screen. It's quite the unique device. Kati, you might think otherwise if you saw one. ;)

I think we'll see more of those with miniaturization, more dense screens, and the Smartphone platform. That's when the fusion devices will really take off. I don't see the PDA niche dying as a result, but being supplanted into a bigger market. :)

Oh, and don't worry, I just checked: Jason's already registered "smartphonethoughts.com". :D

--janak

ux4484

01-14-2003, 05:33 PM

I like Stephen; funny, nice guy, always responds (and often banters back multiples) to email, and often very close to the mark on what's wrong with our technological advancement. While he's certianly right about phones eventually.......I think we're all safe for right now. While I know/see handfulls of folks with PDA's.....almost EVERYONE I know has a mobile phone. Of those I know with phones, I'd say no more than .5% (yes, that's .5...not 50% or 5%, .5%) know how to do anything more with their phones other than:
1) Make/answer calls/check voicemail
2) Change ring tones
3) Transfer a call from Caller ID to their phonebook
4) Play integrated games

Of that .5%, most are younguns who have no real interest in a PDA as they consider them geeky (from the mouths of babes :roll: )

Smartphones in/on every purse/belt/pocket? I reserve judgement until I see more data.

I'll be curious to see the US reaction when the new Motorola phones come out, they may be "Moto" overseas where tech-kitch is king, but can they "rola" the same marketing strategy here on a flooded/entrenced market.

JMountford

01-14-2003, 05:38 PM

As much as I hate to say it, I do beleive that PDAs are still a Niche market. I think they always will be. But everyone has a cell phone. Heck my wife and I both have them. We do not even have land line at home. We are allready thinking about a cell for my 7 1/2 year old daughter, though it may be a year or two yet. As much as I love the Pocket PC. The OS evolves WAY too slowly. THe hardware is pretty much all the same. There is no innovation. It seems like cell phone handset makers do innovate. Heck they have to, because the competition is so fierce.

Functions will continue to increase, price will continue to decrease and hopefully the form factors will deversify. This and the trend of one device for all our needs will ead to the eventual downfall of the PDA as we know it. I do think that eventually everything will be in the form of a phone in some shape or an other.

Janak Parekh

01-14-2003, 05:46 PM

Smartphones in/on every purse/belt/pocket? I reserve judgement until I see more data.
They said the same thing about fax machines, computers, cell phones, SMS on cell phones.... ;)

Make it convenient, give people a motive for using it, and watch adoption skyrocket. The connected PDA/smartphone may be just that solution. Take a look at the success of the T-Mobile Sidekick (Danger Hiptop), for example.

--janak

CTSLICK

01-14-2003, 05:52 PM

I got issues jumping on this bandwagon. Well maybe a couple of issues. (And remember the P in PDA stands for personal. Opinions are like belly buttons, everybody's got one.)

In my opinion this guy is overlooking all of the "other" things that my PDA will do..beyond the basic PIM and email. I need Excel, Word, pdf's, project management, databases. I use them everyday at my job. For these things I need a PDA sized device. No way can a smart phone deliver this kind of functionality in that tiny screen. I'm not giving up screen real estate. The major limiting factor on PDA size is screen dimemsions. They may get thinner or pack more memory or processor into the same space but in the end a 3.5 inch screen is a 3.5 inch screen.

On the flip side, I mainly use PIM and email for my life outside of work. This is an area where a smartphone could be of use. Yes, an XDA type device will do all of this but I don't find an XDA a particularly attractive option. I carry a cell phone all the time and I think the XDA is too big to be carried everywhere. I tried...briefly I might add...to live with one. No way. Give me a nice small phone with enough brains to manage my PIM and email and that's enough.

So give me a nice COMPACT smart phone that sync's with my PDA and desktop wirelessly and quickly. My pda should use my phone to connect when needed once again wirelessly and quickly. Better yet let my pda be a connected device using the same account as my phone (something like multiple sim cards that all use the same mobile account in as many devices as I need).

Bottom line I don't ever see me giving up the bigger screen and increased functionality associated with a PDA. I will be watching smartphones with great interest. When they start acting like an extension of my PDA I'll jump in with both feet. Hopefully the convergence freaks won't kill my dreams.

sub_tex

01-14-2003, 05:54 PM

I don't think i agree at all with the statement.

I think if your PDA use consists of mostly PIM and quick data retrieval, then sure, a PDA/phone hybrid works fine.

But if you are someone who does a lot of data entry, there's really no way the small screen on a cell phone (a mandatory requirement of a cell phone to me is it's small size) will suffice.

The PPCPE are really the only "pda" phones out there that at least don't make you sacrifice your screen size. But they lose out on the phone buttons, or lack thereof.

The beauty of a phone is the amazingly fast manner in which you can enter a number or dial a friend without having to look at the screen. I know i can dial plenty of numbers or answer the call or end it - all by touch alone.

That's something a screen with software buttons will never have.

Now, on the other hand, I do agree that non-connected PDAs will go away soon. The net needs to be a part of every device. Once it becomes cost effective, there will really not be any reason not to have it. Like dial up access on a desktop. A modem costs under $20, and monthly bills are $10 or less! This is why the net is flooded with people. When PDAs reach that level, it's all over. :D

daS

01-14-2003, 06:24 PM

While I’m optimistic that the author is wrong about the demise of the PDA, sadly, there is the possibility he may be right. But not because of the superiority of convergence devices.

I think some of these trends are ironic and show the market is not moved by any logical force in a particular direction. Let’s look at some facts:

The Handheld PC (such as the Jornada 728) that provided a usable keyboard in a clamshell case is a dead product.Add-on keyboards have become popular accessories.Handspring has concluded that keyboards are necessary and gave up on Graffiti (that happened before Palm’s announcement this week that they are switching to JOT.)Digital cameras are increasing resolution, optical zoom multiples and image qualityMobile phones are adding low-resolution cameras

The problem here is that one-size fits all devices fit nobody well. Don’t we want big screens and usable keyboards on our PDAs? Don’t we want small cell phones with multi-day battery life, numeric keypads, and the ability to survive a drop onto the dentist office floor? :grinning devil: Don’t we want cameras with hi-quality lenses? Don’t we want the ability to replace our PDA with the latest model without having to pay to replace our phone and our camera and our MP3 player and …? Now swap “camera” and “PDA” in that last question and repeat it.

Of course, my bias is obvious: I hope for a brighter future for mobile technology centered around Bluetooth. With Bluetooth we can have it all! Each device can be optimized for its core function, but with each providing that functionality to all our other devices. Our PDA can connect to the Internet via our phone. Our camera can send photos to our friends or business associates. Our GPS receiver can update our watch with the exact time – to atomic clock accuracy. Our phone can be used to unlock our car when we leave our keys inside.

What’s more, we can each choose the combination of features we want and not be stuck with a single company’s design decisions. Some people want a camera that they can fit in their pocket. Others will sacrifice size for image quality. Some people like full-size QWERTY keyboards, others like pen input (does anybody really like T9? 8O ) Some people want a phone that can discreetly fit in a pocket, others want to carry only one machine. Some people like the PalmOS, others are more enlightened :way to go: and prefer Pocket PC. Some people want Wi-Fi capability, or CDMA, or GPRS, or Bluetooth, or who knows what's next. Add up all the combinations and you will quickly see that we can’t have it all in one machine.

Each device can be the size and shape it needs to be. Each device can be as rugged as practical for its functionality. Each device can continue to operate on its own if any of our other devices fail or run out of battery power.

I hope my vision of the future holds, because if I’m stuck having no choices but all in one PDA/Phone/Camera/GPS/MP3/Watch I’m sure I will be very unhappy with the compromises necessary. :(

Jason Dunn

01-14-2003, 06:52 PM

Some great responses here, but I think most of you are getting bogged down in specifics. Think in more general terms.

What is a phone? A device to carry on voice conversations.
What is a PDA? A device to view/edit your personal data.

Right now, the vast majority of the phones on the market are incredibly "dumb" - they do nothing. And even if they have advanced features, only a very small % of the owners know how to use those features.

In the next five years or so the lines will blur between PDA and phone - what we'll have are "connected devices" that will come in different sizes, with different input methods, but they'll all enable us to do the same things, just with varying degrees of efficiency. You'll probably have more than one device, but they'll all have similar functions - you'll just prefer one over the other for certain tasks.

Integration is a natural process that shouldn't be feared. Palm mocked the concept of playing audio from a PDA, and until the E-105 came out, no one at Microsoft understood the idea very well either. Now, the idea of having a separate MP3 player is becoming antiquated with both PDAs and cell phones having digital audio playback features. The same thing will happen with many other features.

True convergence won't happen until we have flexible screens though - that will be a revolutionary breakthrough that will allow us to discard the notion that a small device means a small screen.

The future is so bright I gotta' wear 8)

Peter Foot

01-14-2003, 06:56 PM

Plus, I want real buttons on a phone, not button images on a screen (PPCPE).

Well that's not very open minded is it! :wink:

The only reason we have buttons is because they are a comfortable and effective way of getting information from your head to your phone using current technologies. One advantage with modern mobiles as opposed to traditional telephones is support for a phone book - less need to dial a number but rather pick the person you want to contact. With better ways of sharing this information (i.e. VCards, infrared beaming, bluetooth etc) there becomes less need to remember the actual phone number.

There is an increasing move to voice dialing but this has some limitations.
The next step on could be brain control, like FireFox only less cold-war :D

ux4484

01-14-2003, 06:59 PM

They said the same thing about fax machines, computers, cell phones, SMS on cell phones.... ;)

Make it convenient, give people a motive for using it, and watch adoption skyrocket. The connected PDA/smartphone may be just that solution. Take a look at the success of the T-Mobile Sidekick (Danger Hiptop), for example.

--janak

please note I said: While he's certianly right about phones eventually

If the recession deepens or tumbles into a depression, there will be NO way to predict tech advancements. No amount of convienance can give motivation if you need the money more for living requirements. No smartphones in every pocket until they're cheap/free with a plan like most current phones are, and for that you need the middle class.....the typical trickle down of tech prices for new, high end devices is still too slow.
Smart Phones everywhere will happen, but not in the next year, or maybe not even in the following. Devices will merge, but they will be transistion devices (think Sony). No Data/Voice Utopia for a bit yet.

While I know they're selling them......I've never actually seen anyone with/using a Hiptop (and I work in a gadget freaked communications center).

nwingate

01-14-2003, 07:08 PM

I'm sorry if somebody already said this, I didn't read all the previous posts.

I would say that the future belongs to a small phone that can sync with Outlook!
Example: Samsung SPH-i500
http://www.testflysamsung.com/

I know a lot of people use a PDA for all sorts of things but the main thing people want is their contacts and their calendar.

I also think phones will keep their Bluetooth abilities for wireless headsets and laptop surfing.

-Nathan

kaiden.1

01-14-2003, 07:17 PM

I think I have to agree that a Phone with just PIM functions will probably be what is really integrated into one device, but not everything. There are many uses that PDA does very well that a phone just can't do because of the screen size. And I for one need the other functions just as much as I use my phone.

So a PDA will still be a PDA and have a market; however the (Phone / "slash" PIM) I can truely see as becoming one unit. :D

FredMurphy

01-14-2003, 07:34 PM

I agree that merged phone/PDA devices will become more popular and that there will be some cool devices coming out. I disagree that this will kill PDAs or small phones.

I want a PDA with a screen large enough to browse the web, etc. - 5" or bigger. I want a phone that is small enough to chuck in my pocket and not know it's there (as my T68 does now). There's no way one device can be both (unless Dr. Who tardis technology takes off). I'm very happy now with taking my phone everywhere (including mountain biking, snowboarding, drinking myself unconscious) and bringing my PDA with me sometimes.

Connectivity (Bluetooth at the moment) suits me far better than convergence and I imagine it always will. Whether my tiny phone will one day contain the data and processing power and work with any size display I have to hand is another matter.

I also know that other people hate carrying two items where one will do so they will adopt the convergent devices.

Different people, different requirements; a market place that will support both.

Fred

Timothy Rapson

01-14-2003, 07:44 PM

Absolutely!

Wiggin

01-14-2003, 08:10 PM

I have three main categories of thoughts on this topic.
Consumer tech skills
Form factor
Culture
Let's start with the buyer (the ULTIMATE decision maker of where industries will go).
As others have already said in this thread, it frustrates me that the PDA market is still a nitch. But it should not be surprising. Just look at how much volume this Forum (and all others like it) has dedicated to addressing problems, sw glitches, set up errors, connectivity mysteries, blah blah blah. The simple fact of the matter is that PDAs are STILL not "monkey proof", and the VAST majority of the consumer world is NOT a techie who can muddle their way through to a working solution. (One only need look at how many people use AOL...they offered a tech "all-in-one" approach to ISP, Web browser, email, etc. The basic consumer loves to avoid tech mess. I’m still amazed at the number of users that pay AOL each month!! :confused totally:
I challenge you to find one "techie" that uses AOL for anything ... unless it is for ISP connectivity in a geo area with limited options.)
Let's face it, the Cell Phone just plain works for the basic function it is sold to perform. Therefore, EVERYONE can get a cell phone to work, and keep it working (assuming that elusive cell signal is around!). Not so with PDAs. Until this problem is adequately addressed, PDAs will remain a nitch...REGARDLESS of the bells and whistles they are packaged with. How many average consumers want to shell out hundreds of $$ for a gadget they can’t get to work 100% of the time? :silly:

Form factor... ah the elusive Holy Grail. I firmly believe there is no "perfect" form factor for anything. There are just too many humans, with too many brains, with too many personal likes/dislikes, to satisfy with one form factor. :Fade-color
Need proof, just look at automobiles... why do we have over 600 models to get us from here to there?
One of the MOST important features of the electronic device IMHO is the visual UI. Screen size dictates SO much of a gadget's usefulness. Is there a perfect screen size? Of course not (see comment above). But the screen size must match its intended use. A phone's screen should support phoning. More is nice, but not required. Less is unacceptable, and dooms that model to the scrap heap. A PDA's screen should support Information Processing. More is nice, but not required. Less is unacceptable..... heap. If both the PDA and Phone end up performing the exact same functions, the consumer will select the model that has the best Form Factor AND feature list to meet their personal tastes and priority needs. To suggest that it will eventually be a phone most of the time is interesting. But to suggest it will eventually be a PDA most of the time is equally interesting. Both statements have a good chance to come true.

Which leads me to the third area... culture.
The world is a phone culture, and most recently, a cell phone culture. Remember when it was considered extravagant to carry a cell phone in the super market, let alone USE it while shopping? :shocked!: Remember how you felt when you saw the first car with a pig tail antenna on the back window? (That lucky, extravagant, ….) Flash forward to today. We don't even BLINK at cell phones now. In fact, we've flipped 180 degrees. If someone DOESN'T have a cell phone...we immediately ask why not?!? What? Are you a conscientious objector??
If the VAST majority of the consumer world has embraced the cell phone, and a small numerical nitch use PDA's, is it any wonder that the VAST majority of the world will predict the eventual victory of the cell phone form factor??

Conclusions like the one Stephen Manes offers are interesting, but not gospel. There are far too many Form Factor changes and surprises coming down the pipe, at too great a speed, to settle on such a simple outcome. As Jason says in his post, the future is bright. It is far better to just enjoy the ride, and continue to buy, use, tweak, break, replace, and praise the gadgets that continue to rain down on us!

ps... just reread that....whew! Am I a windbag or what?!! :lol:

daS

01-14-2003, 08:50 PM

Am I a windbag or what?!! :lol:

Perhaps, but an eloquent windbag! :wink:

I think you made some very valid points. One that I thought I'd add: As Jason pointed out, flexible screen technology will change the landscape a lot. However, one problem that would still remain is an effective input method. Voice command is not the answer. As you said, culture plays a big role. While cell phones (that’s mobiles to you guys in Europe :wink: ) are ubiquitous, talking on them in many public areas is still not considered acceptable social behavior. So while voice command on PDAs would be a nice addition, it would be awful as the primary input method. Imagine having to listen to a sports reporter on an airplane editing a game report in Word with voice commands:
Down one line, select third period. No, I didn’t mean the period at the end of the third sentence, I meant the words “third period”. Oh forget it! :evil: Excuse me miss, can I have another beer? :beer: Wait, I didn’t mean to have that entered into my article! Argh! :really mad: Hey, stop that! :silly:
Seriously, I do think that some convergence is inevitable, but I still think we will have separate devices available – each optimized for their primary function. We have the start of that today: Phones are mostly phones, but with PDA functions inside. Cameras are primarily cameras, but some like the Casio XM3 have MP3 ability (which, BTW: Casio is giving up on.) FM radio cards exist for Pocket PCs, etc.

Still most people never use the calendar in the phone. It’s there because it doesn’t cost much to include and people expect it on the feature list (even thought they’ll never use it.) I think we’ll see more of the same.

JonathanWardRogers

01-14-2003, 09:18 PM

I'm going to have to disagree with this completely. My future does not have smartphones dominating the tech gadget world. Instead, it has a plethora of devices, diverse in size and function, connected wirelessly, each fulfilling it's own purpose.

With wireless connectivity in it's infancy (let's face it, WiFi and Bluetooth are generation 1), one can already see these things coming to light. Why have a smartphone when I can pick my display, my phone connectivity, my interface and my CPU separately, have them all work together wirelessly, and not be tied to any form factor.

You want a bigger display? Get a HMD or a 3.5 inch flat panel that will wirelessly display anything from your "CPU" unit.

You need special input needs? Having to do a lot of data entry in a noisy environment? Get your wirelessly connected keyboard out, or just use your wireless pen to write on plain paper.

You want games? How about a stereoscopic HMD, wireless mouse (or other controller, take your pick) and a beefy CPU and GPU unit.

I believe this is where things are going. Look at the Tablet PC - a device that embraces this ideal elegantly. Need a laptop with a keyboard? No problem. Need a desktop? No problem. A touch panel? You see my point? People are not going to need more than one OS, CPU, etc. That is not to say that companies won't offer such "pre-packaged" devices such as smartphones or PDAs, and there will certainly always be advocates of specific form factors. But do you really think that there will still be Laptops in two or three years from now? Of course not! Why would anyone buy a Tablet PC that didn't let them take off the keyboard?

I think the same trend will hold true with all computer based technology.

Of course, I could be wrong... :-)

Kati Compton

01-14-2003, 09:36 PM

Plus, I want real buttons on a phone, not button images on a screen (PPCPE).

Well that's not very open minded is it! :wink:

I happen to like being able to dial without looking. While I don't like driving while using a cell phone, if I have to (ie, middle of highway, reporting drunken driver), I definitely want to be able to dial without looking. Plus, sometimes there are numbers I haven't entered yet into my PIM. Sometimes I don't bother entering them because I know them so well by how it feels to dial, and it just takes longer to "look them up and hit enter" than to just type it in.

Kati

jimski

01-14-2003, 11:03 PM

I don't think so Jason. I carried around a Kyocera Smartphone for more than a year (yeh, I waited in line and paid $500 bucks for that clunker) before I decided that this was not the way to go.

I really like my PDA, but not enough to take it everywhere, like on the beach or to a baseball game. It's just too big and bulky and I always have to worry about dropping or crunching (you know about that) it. Downsizing the PDA part of the device just compromises the PDA functionality and still results in a cell phone on steroids.

Bluetooth is the perfect marrige of small cell phone and super powered PDA. When my 5450 battery dies, I still have a cell phone. I don't fumble with my phone when I need to check e-mail or browse the web. I just turn on my 5450 and connect. The phone is on my belt or in my bag. I don't even think about it anymore. Throw in the Bluetooth headset and I can either voice dial our use my PDA to dial, again without ever touching the phone.

Bluetooth eliminated wires and now MobileWise (www.mobilewise.com) is going to eliminate all those darn power packs and proprietary connector plugs. Things will get simpler, just be patient.

I would like to know what you think of Pocket Phones or PDA Phones after carrying one for several months.

IMOP- No one will every marry a small phone and full-featured PDA in such a way to make it ideal. Sure, people will buy them and show them off to friends (like I did), but after a while will be bogged down by this brick that they feel obligated to carry around everywhere.

Sorry, but I am not looking back. Long live Bluetooth (or whatever comes along to replace it).

RobertCF

01-14-2003, 11:05 PM

I'll start off by saying I've resisted getting a cell phone so far. I don't care how much I travel (which is considerable) I have yet to find a situation that couldn't wait until I reached a regular phone. And until there exists an omnipresent wireless net analogous to the Earth: Final Conflict Global, as someone mentioned earlier, there simply isn't squat for coverage by ANY of the services. I refuse to pay attention to minutes or location or anything and pay for the annoyance to boot.

Now, as far as what the future holds for either device, obviously the convergence is growing, but a couple of questions come immediately to mind. Will there in fact BE a single form that emerges? And will consumers drive that or will manufacturers coerce consumers into accepting their choice?

Personally, I'm not willing to give up my screen size or general PDA size for those puny little phones and their thumb-sized displays. I certainly don't want the devices to get any bigger--that's why I avoid notebook computers and now those ridiculous tablets like the plague. I thought it interesting that there was a mention that there are more PDA functions in phones than phone functions in PDAs. That sort of stands to reason, doesn't it? Which device, by definition in its native, non-hybrid form contains more functionality? The PDA, of course.

Another consideration for the future of the product lines is cost. It's quite common to get a free phone (or two or three) for signing up for wireless service. Do these phones have very much in the way of frills? Rarely. And even as low as basic PDA prices are getting, I somehow doubt they'll ever get to the free status, especially if they ever become a "Global".

So, in my humble opinion, unless there's a huge leap in technology that provides a virtual display and an input method that will allow you to do everything you've come to expect from current technology and yet be as small as the smallest wireless phone, people are going to want and need a device that has a substantial screen, etc., even if they CAN talk to cousin Eddie over the thing. I believe there really is a "sweet spot" for the form factor.

James Bond

01-14-2003, 11:16 PM

After being to conferences, offsite meetings, etc, I've convinced myself that laptop + cell phone is the killer combo. For access to a lot of data and comfortable data entry, a sizeable screen and keyboard are needed = laptop (or maybe one of the new tablet PCs). For connectivity anywhere, cell phone (which could also be used with a laptop as a modem).

Ideally, a small cell phone which is smart enough to sync with my schedule and be able to send/receive both text messages and email would be a great companion when I am not doing serious work. For everything else, something laptop-sized will be the solution.

Of course, wireless enabled PDAs still look useful, although not that appealing to me.

RavenSBNC

01-15-2003, 12:09 AM

I still perfer just a normal PDA cause I have NO use at all for a cell phone, never had one, don't want one. So I don't want a PDA with one.

Will T Smith

01-15-2003, 12:27 AM

...

Of course, my bias is obvious: I hope for a brighter future for mobile technology centered around Bluetooth. With Bluetooth we can have it all! Each device can be optimized for its core function, but with each providing that functionality to all our other devices. Our PDA can connect to the Internet via our phone. Our camera can send photos to our friends or business associates. Our GPS receiver can update our watch with the exact time – to atomic clock accuracy. Our phone can be used to unlock our car when we leave our keys inside.

What’s more, we can each choose the combination of features we want and not be stuck with a single company’s design decisions. Some people want a camera that they can fit in their pocket. Others will sacrifice size for image quality. Some people like full-size QWERTY keyboards, others like pen input (does anybody really like T9? 8O ) Some people want a phone that can discreetly fit in a pocket, others want to carry only one machine. Some people like the PalmOS, others are more enlightened :way to go: and prefer Pocket PC. Some people want Wi-Fi capability, or CDMA, or GPRS, or Bluetooth, or who knows what's next. Add up all the combinations and you will quickly see that we can’t have it all in one machine.

Each device can be the size and shape it needs to be. Each device can be as rugged as practical for its functionality. Each device can continue to operate on its own if any of our other devices fail or run out of battery power.

I hope my vision of the future holds, because if I’m stuck having no choices but all in one PDA/Phone/Camera/GPS/MP3/Watch I’m sure I will be very unhappy with the compromises necessary. :(

Ditto. These are almost exactly my thoughts.

Modularity is a trend that pervades ALL segments of technology. Why integrate a mobile conectivity technology when I can get it by simply purchasing a device that connects wirelessly.

Using this modality, my device could connect to GPS receivers, local information providers (malls etc...), household networks, appliances (TVs PVRs, Jukeboxes), chash registers, automobile stereo/telemetry/diagnostics, etc...

My communication method of choice would connect to my belt and have little function other then forwarding messages. It could contain cell/ 802.11w (w = whatever :-), point to point CB, etc...

Lets not forget that a computer is a tool. Connectivity certainly IS good. But by no means does EVERYONE need to be connected ALL the time. This is especially relevant when the kiddies start keeping their own palm size organizers and doing some of their work on Star Trek style PADDs. The cell phone really isn't needed in a lot of cases.

Will T Smith

01-15-2003, 12:32 AM

In the near term, I believe that new display technologies will actually encourage larger screens like the Toshiba Genio. That is a Genio that runs at 640x480 or 800x600. Perhaps even devices with two displays mounted inside a clambshell.

Lets not forget that the model for a PDA is a organizer/planner. I haven't seen any organizers that are 2x3 inches (save the "little black book" that Fonzie carried around). Rather they are larger with more writing and viewing space. Would such a device have connectivity ... Doubtless. Would it necessarily have to include a cell-phone, no.

darius779

01-15-2003, 01:50 AM

with the advent of wifi 'nets' over some cities, and many more sure to come, I would be more inclined to use a wireless pda to share my home VoIP account. most pdas already include microphones and speakers, though they need improving.

I would be more inclined to spend the money from a phone plan to get a higher transfer rate that can do everything that I would want it to.

Janak Parekh

01-15-2003, 02:34 AM

jimski

01-15-2003, 08:24 AM

However, I hate the fact that having multiple small devices means increasing amounts of battery management. At the moment, I carry at least four devices that need recharging: my camera, my laptop, my cell phone, and my iPaq. Way too much hassle. I'd rather have one type of battery, one type of charger, and only one type of thing to cradle. :) Oh, and don't remind me of power brick hell...

--janak

Have you taken a look at the MobileWise website (mobilewise.com) and their PowerPads. When you get home, just drop all of your gadgets onto the pad and they start charging; phones, PDA's, cameras, headsets, whatever. Forget about the wires and all those power bricks. The chips in each device will determine the proper voltage and current draw to supply to each device.

I only wish they were trading publicly so I could buy some of their stock.

ux4484

01-15-2003, 08:33 AM

mccollin

01-15-2003, 08:35 AM

I totally agree that these devices are so personal that there will always be many different choices. I think the question is... where is the sweet spot going. That's tougher.

Personally... Now that I've tasted what its like to have a single device, I won't ever go back. My theory is that today, we are still in the Model T stage of pdaPhones. In the early days of automobiles, you needed to be a mechanic to own one. You frequently broke down in the middle of the road, and there weren't any "shops" to carry it to, and no towing services ot come get you. Fast forward to today. The world of the pdaPhone. Same thing. They aren't perfect, and if you really want to get the most out of it, you need to have a certain number of geek cells in your body.

Its only a matter of time guys... how much? No clue. The cost of the guts in a cellphone will eventually become so inexpensive that it will be a no-brainer to include it in a PDA. We are starting to see 802.11 going in that direction already, as well as low end cameras. In five years, I would bet that a pdaPhone or a Phonepda... take your pick.. will be a very common item. Will there still be PDAs? Will there still be mobile phones? You bet! But, where will the sweet spot of the market be? My bet is on the pdaPhone.

Perry Reed

01-15-2003, 06:23 PM

Have you taken a look at the MobileWise website (mobilewise.com) and their PowerPads. When you get home, just drop all of your gadgets onto the pad and they start charging; phones, PDA's, cameras, headsets, whatever. Forget about the wires and all those power bricks. The chips in each device will determine the proper voltage and current draw to supply to each device.

I only wish they were trading publicly so I could buy some of their stock.

Curb your enthusiasum :multi: , it requires modification of each device that uses the pad (in some cases drilling!). While being touted as an "easy" charging system. I don't see most folks wanting to modify their "precious" devices to use one. It's more of a corperate roll out thing to be installed and administered by the tech's for the ease of use of the end users.

Hmmm... I was under the impression that the whole point was for new devices to have the ability to use the charging pad built-in; no drilling required. Existing devices would need retro-fitting, but I doubt many would be. Some existing devices could possibly be retrofitted simply with a new battery that contains the necessary chips, etc.

My enthusiasm for the technology remains high.

Janak Parekh

01-15-2003, 07:34 PM

daS

01-21-2003, 05:05 PM

So, those of you advocating Bluetooth - I love the technology, I use it everyday. However, I hate the fact that having multiple small devices means increasing amounts of battery management. At the moment, I carry at least four devices that need recharging: my camera, my laptop, my cell phone, and my iPaq. Way too much hassle. I'd rather have one type of battery, one type of charger, and only one type of thing to cradle.
And of course, if you use that one "thing" camera/pda/phone as a camera or to play a game and the battery goes dead - then you have no camera, no pda, no phone, etc. :cry:

Don't get me wrong. I too wish for better battery management. But having all one's eggs in one basket doesn't seem like the answer to me. Yes I know there are tools like the zinc/air batteries, but I still like the idea that no matter how much I use my "toys", my "tools" are still going to work when I need them.

TMPPCPEUser

01-22-2003, 12:27 AM

Just my two cents worth. The future is already here....

I have owned an Ericsson T68 for over a year as well as an IPAQ/Toshiba e740 for almost two, both best-in-class devices. I lugged both a cell phone and PDA around and yearned for the days of true convergance. . I honestly never got around to using WAP/GPRS on my Ericsson (too slow, screen too small) and my prior PPC's were mostly glorified organizers and Zagat guides (cumbersome to get other content into them via syncing).

I was on the verge of linking the two with a Bluetooth SD card when I bit the bullet and got my T-Mobile PPC Phone Edition 2 weeks ago. I am now in heavan and am inseparable from my PPCPE. Web browsing is quite acceptable over GPRS and it is a great cell phone which integrates very well with my contacts. What else...let's see..a speakerphone (!), great screen, great battery life, software based voiced dialing (Fonix.com), etc. I really have NO interest in a Smartphone at this point. I would not want a smaller screen or less PDA computing power. At times when I only need a cellphone and dont want to lug around a PDA I simply pop out the SIM (with key contacts on it) and put it in my T68.

Not that the device is perfect I am looking forward to future improvements such as built in WiFi, Bluetooth, a full SDIO slot with digicam capability, more memory, a 400 MHz processor. more programmable buttons, more customized web content, better GPRS coverage, etc. For now, however, I am happy as a clam....

(p.s. I have no connection to Microsoft, T-Mobile, HTC or any other company. Just a satisfied customer)