Future of 3G

[Andy Sjostrom]

<a href="http://zdnet.com.com/2100-1105-964195.html">http://zdnet.com.com/2100-1105-964195.html</a><br /><br />Some believe 3G will revolutionize the way we use mobile devices and wireless services. In my mind 3G, the next generation wireless wide area network, means no more than a bit (no pun intended) faster communications. However, I definately like "faster" so that's ok with me. I just found this interesting article on the subject: <a href="http://zdnet.com.com/2100-1105-964195.html">"Mobile phone inventor: 3G is dead"</a>.<br /><br />"3G has problems, according to Marty Cooper. And he should know, the chief executive of high-speed wireless company ArrayComm is credited with inventing the mobile phone while working at Motorola. "We engineers knew years ago that 3G as presently constituted is essentially dead," said Cooper, speaking at the Broadband DSL Forum conference in Berlin. The director-general of standards body ETSI had little to say in response. Cooper's comment--in a speech which concentrated on the possibility of faster wireless by other means--drew an indignant response from Karl Heinz Rosenbrock, the head of the European standards body ETSI (which is in charge of the UMTS specifications on which some 3G networks are based) who was in the audience. ... But Cooper dismissed these services: "The hype said that UMTS would give users 2Mbps channels, but the truth is that it has 1.1Mbps channels, which must be shared by people to be economic," he said. "It also needs a reasonable number of base stations. In practice users will get about 80kbps, at a much greater cost than GPRS, which currently gives 50 to 60kbps. My reaction is not much more than a yawn."

[mookie123]

Death to BT and 3G.

It's all the way WiFi, 2.5G and MiniUSB2.0 for me....

2.5 for voice
WiFi/2.5 for data
and USB2.0 to tied all those pesky devices together.

no hype, or glitzy multiple gazzillion budget. cheap and working.

hey. I can start a grass root movement with this. Anybody has spare change to start the movement? free USB cable for mobile workers and peasants all over the world!

(ok, I need to cut down on my caffeine. :lol: )

[Don Sorcinelli]

I still think the reality of all of this is that 3G will be "kept alive" by all those who are deeply invested in it for as long as is humanly possible.

Cooper's comments are true from a scientific/technological perspective. From a business perspective, however, that's the last thing any telco will openly admit to.

As for mookie123's comments - I agree on 2.5G and WiFi, but please don't ask me to give up my Bluetooth. I got them all working so nicely together, and I don't miss the wires one bit. Of course, that probably puts me in a category of - oh, I don't know - a few people :oops: ...

[that_kid]

I'm not sure what's going to happen with 3G, I think that Sprint and Verizon have a good speeds but they are locking people out by not offering any BT phones. I've done the wire to cell phone deal two years ago and now I want to be free. There is a wireless company called monet who has a nice cdma network running at 2Mbps and they only charge $39 for unlimited data. Too bad they're not in this area cause I feel that would give DSL and Cable providers a run for their money. I agree with Mookie 123 on a few items but subsitute Firewire in place of usb 2.0 and Keep BT. My BT setup is working well and I think it is a good "cable replacer"

[normaldude]

I think Flarion's 4G wireless technology is more interesting. But it requires that the wireless carriers to admit they made a mistake with 3G.

http://www.redherring.com/mag/issue118/4723.html

p.s. and I think Bluetooth rules. I hope to see more Bluetooth devices in the near future. I'll also be interested in WiFi when they replace the crappy WEP security with WPA.

[ThomasC22]

I think Flarion's 4G wireless technology is more interesting. But it requires that the wireless carriers to admit they made a mistake with 3G.


and that's never going to happen. I think you can count on being stuck with the current 2.5/3G solutions for some time to come. The providers are getting smart about it and offering unlimited access which means more people will start using it and BOOM...you have a business sucess which is all anyone really wants.

As for WiFi, don't hold you're breath. Other than Airports I don't expect to see many more "Access Points" popping up (unless you want to stand outside my house :))

[normaldude]

and that's never going to happen. I think you can count on being stuck with the current 2.5/3G solutions for some time to come.

Unless Nextel decides to go with Flarion's 4G technology (definite possibility), and everyone else jumps on the bandwagon. If Nextel doesn't do it, Flarion is dead.

..offering unlimited access which means more people will start using it and BOOM

Actually, I'd prefer an add on plan where I only pay what I use.. and for months that I don't use it, I pay nothing (or maybe a dollar or two). I might go months without using GPRS, then suddenly go on vacation or travel and use it a lot. I don't want to pay $$$ for months that I don't even use it.

[Cipr0]

There are problems with UMTS (WCDMA), the stanard is still changing. DoComo is having big problems with handsets, battery life and the handoff issue is a mess.


Here is an example of a provider that is providing 3g TODAY in Duluth of all places.

Has to kill the Europeans that the US is beating them at Wireless now as well.

BTW...Nokia refers to CDMA 1x as 2.5g for 2 years while they work on thier chipset , Since they began to sell the 6370 (a cdma1x phone) Nokia refered to that phone as 3g in thier last conference call.

Here is the press release url
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/021029/latu046a_1.html
Snipet.



For a flat monthly rate, Monet Broadband offers high-speed, mobile access to the complete Internet, enabling streaming video, multimedia, position-location services, e-mail, and secure access to corporate intranets and databases. Monet's Broadband network is accessible through a modem card that is compatible with desktops, laptops and handheld PCs. The combination of mobility, network speed and device flexibility allows Monet to offer residential users and small businesses an alternative to Digital Subscriber Line (DSL) and cable.

3g is not dead, but UMTS might be....Here comes CDMA2000 1xEV-DO (of couse Korea has had EV-DO for quite some time)

:)

Cipro
Bringing balance to the Force

[wm5051]

3G will come, in time. At this point everyone should look at all of the carriers leaning to WiFi. In the US, all national carries have launched or have announced that they will launch a WiFi HotSpot service.

I have to disagree with ThomasC22. I have been using T-mobile's HotSpots in Starbucks and hotels. I have tried Boingo's as well. WiFi has a strong place for anyone away from home. Just ask anyone who has had to download a powerpoint presentation over dial-up. In major cities it just makes sense.

monetizing it may be another story (with the number of groups offering free WiFi access), but the convenience and speed make it very attractive.

[ThomasC22]

Unless Nextel decides to go with Flarion's 4G technology (definite possibility), and everyone else jumps on the bandwagon. If Nextel doesn't do it, Flarion is dead.


Well, on the upside, I think there is a good chance Nextel might. Nextel really needs a win right now, their CB technology is great but not great enough to support their high prices and lack of many features (high speed wireless internet being one of those features).

Being they target business customers I think they really need to find a way to leapfrog the competition to survive. This could provide just that.

Actually, I'd prefer an add on plan where I only pay what I use.. and for months that I don't use it, I pay nothing (or maybe a dollar or two). I might go months without using GPRS, then suddenly go on vacation or travel and use it a lot. I don't want to pay $$$ for months that I don't even use it.

Well, surely you admit that you're in the minority though...plus, you said you'd be willing to pay a dollar or two, is the extra eight dollars (sprint is $10 for unlimited access) really going to kill you? Wouldn't you rather just pay it and not worry?

[ThomasC22]

I have to disagree with ThomasC22. I have been using T-mobile's HotSpots in Starbucks and hotels. I have tried Boingo's as well. WiFi has a strong place for anyone away from home.

Oh, I don't disagree that WiFi is great I'm simply saying it's never going to happen in any substantial way. The only companies really interested in putting access points up in random places are the Telco's and they've sold themself on Cellular technology which means there is no one to put the technology out there.

Sure, Starbucks will do it, but they'll charge you a huge amount and that only buys you access inside Starbucks.

Bottom Line: Without ALOT of access points WiFi just isn't going to work as an end to end solution and no one is interested in putting up the lot of access points.

[normaldude]

Well, surely you admit that you're in the minority though...plus, you said you'd be willing to pay a dollar or two, is the extra eight dollars (sprint is $10 for unlimited access) really going to kill you? Wouldn't you rather just pay it and not worry?

No. I actually equate the situation as similar to my view on dial-up ISP access. I have a broadband connection at home. However, I need dial-up to serve as backup when the cable modem goes down, and for when I travel.

There's no way I want to pay an ISP $10-25/month for something I rarely use. I might go a whole year, and only use dial-up for a couple hours. So instead, I signed up with http://www.access-4-free.com , and I only get charged if I use more than 10 hrs per month (max charge $10/month). If I'm going to make a trip overseas, I'll open an account with http://www.attbusiness.net for only the months that I'm overseas.

I might be in the minority on this board, but I think the majority of average people aren't going to pay $10/month to surf the web on their little cellphone screens. The average cellphone user has never heard of Bluetooth, doesn't own a PDA, and would probably only use cellphone internet access for simple things like some news, stock quotes and email.

I think two pricing plans is best.. one unlimited plan for heavy users, and one pay-for-what-you-use plan for sporadic users.

[ThomasC22]

There's no way I want to pay an ISP $10-25/month for something I rarely use. I might go a whole year, and only use dial-up for a couple hours. So instead, I signed up with http://www.access-4-free.com , and I only get charged if I use more than 10 hrs per month (max charge $10/month). If I'm going to make a trip overseas, I'll open an account with http://www.attbusiness.net for only the months that I'm overseas.

I might be in the minority on this board, but I think the majority of average people aren't going to pay $10/month to surf the web on their little cellphone screens. The average cellphone user has never heard of Bluetooth, doesn't own a PDA, and would probably only use cellphone internet access for simple things like some news, stock quotes and email.


I think you're in the minority in general :)

Think about it, take your Dial-up example, there are pay as you go plans available (AT&T being the biggest provider) and yet still the overwhelming majority of users choose to use flat-fee unlimited plans because they simply won't have to worry about how much they use.

The idea the an extra $8 a month is going to have people up in arms is a little bizarre to me. I spend $8 a day on lunch.

I think 99.9% of those who would use the service at all are probably going to be willing to simply pay the $10 a month and have unlimited access...but then again, I could be wrong.

[normaldude]

Think about it, take your Dial-up example, there are pay as you go plans available (AT&T being the biggest provider) and yet still the overwhelming majority of users choose to use flat-fee unlimited plans because they simply won't have to worry about how much they use.

The majority of cable modem users also don't pay for dialup separately. No one wants to pay for something they rarely use.



The idea the an extra $8 a month is going to have people up in arms is a little bizarre to me. I spend $8 a day on lunch.


Would you pay $8 a month for a meal plan that you used maybe once a year? Thus paying $96 for one or two sandwiches a year? No, you'd probably prefer to buy the sandwiches when you need them.

People won't be "up in arms" over $10/month wireless broadband unless it suddenly appeared on their monthly bill in a surprise. What will happen is that they won't bother rushing to sign up for an $10/month plan they will hardly use.

btw, I think the $10/month unlimited figure you quoted is for a specific WAP surfing device. Sprint is still listing unlimited wireless data (laptops & PDA) at $100/month:
http://www.pcsvision.com/showcase/details.html

[ThomasC22]

I think we're just going to have to agree to disagree. I really don't see you're point here because I really don't see $8 a day (or $96 a year for that matter) as that much money.

But, to each his/her own...

Oh, and btw, I guess Sprints plan is just for Cell phones but hopefully with the Smartphone 2002 platform that won't be that big a deal.