Microsoft out in the cold?

[Andy Sjostrom]

<a href="http://www.vnunet.com/News/1134289">http://www.vnunet.com/News/1134289</a><br /><br />This article (<a href="http://www.vnunet.com/News/1134289">"Microsoft's mobile quandary</a> by Robin Bloor) was sent in and I just have to voice my opinion. It must have been given the wrong published date. It says "[12-08-2002]" but I would have guessed [12-08-1999]. In 1999 I would have given the article some credit, but today...!?<br /><br />The article begins: "It is pretty clear to everyone now that the world of mobile computing will eventually eat the PC world and spit out the pips. But what nobody is really sure of is when or exactly how it will happen. "<br /><br />Is that clear to "everyone"? Since when? Mobile computing is about accessing information, ie the Internet, using small devices. The table is the Internet, and everyone is welcome to join! Laptops, desktops, PDAs, cell phones! Come on in and connect! Tomorrow is not this or that, it is this and that!<br /><br />Robin Bloor then moves on and says a couple of truths on Pocket PCs taking market share, albeit mentioning Palm as "Palm Pilot", but then he's at it again... He takes his analysis from the appearance of "the mobile phone/camera, the mobile phone/music player and the mobile phone/web surfer" and says that since these are selling more than Pocket PCs, then Microsoft is doomed. Again, in 1999 I even said the same thing (on the record, actually). But today I know that Microsoft is not about Pocket PCs. Microsoft is about Internet and "on any device", including Pocket PCs. We'll soon see new types of devices based Microsoft software surpassing the products referred to in the article. Remember where those products come from: dumb, character based terminal software! Now, the ol' phone makers try to beef it up. Microsoft already has the rich multimedia platform. I am not saying that scaling down is easy, but it is easier than getting a terminal window look jazzy.<br /><br />Finally, I just have to jump at the last conclusions. Robin writes: "Nokia and Ericsson are the companies with the large numbers of users. They determine where the market goes. If Microsoft wants a piece of this market then it will have to make deals with them. Well, the new giants Nokia and Ericsson (with Ericsson now in league with the old consumer giant Sony)."<br /><br />I guess the last six months just past without notice. No, Microsoft does not have to make deals with Nokia or Ericsson (even though I wouldn't mind). There's another piece of this puzzle that sits on numbers of users (apart from Microsoft itself): the mobile network operators. Expect more Microsoft - carrier partnerships to come! "Robin Bloor, founder and leading light at Bloor Research...", says the article. Need a battery charge?<br /><br /><img src="http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/images/battery_01.jpg" />

[possmann]

The big question I have - did they get paid for this?

If so - how can I get a job like this!

Anyone need a good Project Manager - IT/IS/Business Systems? My position is being "restructured"... in a couple of weeks :roll:

[alexandre]

A lot of people are not seeing what Microsoft is now achieving in the wireless space. The fact that you will be able to read your email in your phone, using the same interface as outlook, connecting to the same gateways your it department is used to is a big plus.

So is the fact that you will be able to read Excel and Word documents, use PowerPoint and plya great games (had to plug this one).

What people must realize is that, like McLuhan said, the media is the message. Users dont care whether its GPRS or 3G, they care about what they see in front of them. I suspect a lot of the content used in wireless devices will be downloaded from the internet, and uploaded to the phones, so who cares about 10 Mbps connexions?

It seems carrier start to realize a famous motto: don't think you'll build it and they will come. And they start to understand that the missing piece was not the 3G network, but the versatily, the user friendliness and the ease of use of the devices. Anyone here tried to connect a Ericsson T39 to a GPRS network and to an internet mailbox? I did. Gee, never could make it work!

I could talk for hours about how serious Microsoft is in the wireless space. Hopefully, their arrival has waken up companies like Sony and Nokia, working really hard to upgrade their OS and coming out with devices that will, I hope, prove to be as good as what I've been using for the last month: a SmartPhone 2002 based device.

And to people who think a 499$ phone wont sell: Remember the first Motorola flip phones? In a period of 6 months, everybody I knew had one. That's what is going to happen with SmartPhone. Stay tuned.

[Master O'Mayhem]

Robin Bloor then moves on and says a couple of truths on Pocket PCs taking market share, albeit mentioning Palm as "Palm Pilot", but then he's at it again... He takes his analysis from the appearance of "the mobile phone/camera, the mobile phone/music player and the mobile phone/web surfer" and says that since these are selling more than Pocket PCs, then Microsoft is doomed. Again, in 1999 I even said the same thing (on the record, actually). But today I know that Microsoft is not about Pocket PCs. Microsoft is about Internet and "on any device", including Pocket PCs. We'll soon see new types of devices based Microsoft software surpassing the products referred to in the article. Remember where those products come from: dumb, character based terminal software! Now, the ol' phone makers try to beef it up. Microsoft already has the rich multimedia platform. I am not saying that scaling down is easy, but it is easier than getting a terminal window look jazzy.


Ooo good use of Albeit ;)

[ThomasC22]

OK, well, lets get something straight, Microsoft is no where as far as wireless goes at this point. They may very well be somewhere in the future but as I see it, right now, they have one product available (PPC2K2PE) and it is too new to judge how well it is doing.

Beyond that, I am one that thinks Microsoft's wireless strategy is a mess right now. Lets take three users, Gadget Freak, Business user, and Casual (home) user.

Gadget Freak: for those like me (and most of you) your going to need BOTH a PocketPC 2002 Phone Edition device and a Smartphone to get everything you want. That's a good $1000+ down the tubes. Too much. Plus, and I'm sorry to be a walt mossberg here, but for messaging a thumb keyboard is the way to go.

Business user: Microsoft has no real solution for the business user. They either have to get a PDA that is a really awkward phone or a phone with no viable means of data entry.

Casual User: Price is going to kill them here. Smartphone 2002 devices can't do all that much more for the casual user than the $179 (w/o service plan) sanyo models being offered by sprint right now.

Bottom line: Microsoft needs to reevaluate here...

[pt]

OK, well, lets get something straight, Microsoft is no where as far as wireless goes at this point. >>>> Bottom line: Microsoft needs to reevaluate here...

before the xbox came out, no one really thought ms could pull off making gaming consoles. they're now a serious player in that arena, recent reports but them ahead of nintendo and with xbox live coming, it's going to get HOT.

on the phone front....ms has scored some great deals with tmobile, verizon wireless, at&t wireless, sprint...and more in the works.

ms's model is kinda interesting, carriers don't need to deal with MEN (moto, ericcson, nokia) and the carrier can provide a device to the customer that is branded and created *just* for the carrier. the tmobile phone is the tmobile phone, no one else owns that customer relationship...the smartphone 2002 will most likely work that way from the reports...so, we could see carriers flock to those ODM devices, or maybe not...who knows.

to dismiss them, seems unfair.

let's have this conversation next year this time, it's an interesting time, who knows what will happen.

cheers,
pt

[Perry Reed]

Casual User: Price is going to kill them here. Smartphone 2002 devices can't do all that much more for the casual user than the $179 (w/o service plan) sanyo models being offered by sprint right now.

Hey, I just bought one of those Sanyo phones over the weekend. It's a Sanyo 4900, it works on the new Sprint Vision service, and it is indeed only $179. Bright, full color screen, great sound, speakerphone, high speed data. I'm not sure which OS it's running, but it does run Java apps. It came with a few (like Space Invaders) pre-installed.

I just wish the service plan came with more megabytes per month. Having only two per month, I'm going to have to REALLY watch my usage.

[Jason Dunn]

Bottom line: Microsoft needs to reevaluate here...

Considering that your avatar is a Treo, I hardly think you're giving them a fair evaluation. :wink: Honestly, I don't think you understand what they're trying to do - pt pointed out the crux of it: T-Mobile owns the customer with a T-Mobile phone, not MEN. That's VERY important to the carriers.

[Jonathan1]

T-Mobile owns the customer with a T-Mobile phone, not MEN.

No MS just replaces MEN. The ownership just switches from hardware to software. Remember you NEVER own an OS when you purchase it from MS. That applies to both OEM's and end users.

[Jonathan1]

before the xbox came out, no one really thought ms could pull off making gaming consoles. they're now a serious player in that arena, recent reports but them ahead of nintendo and with xbox live coming, it's going to get HOT.

pt

I love how people bring up X-Box. Truth be told even with the price drop the X-Box is getting the crap kicked out of them by Sony in Asia and even Europe. In the US it's doing better but still is lagging behind PS2. Now take this into consideration. Sony is already talking PS3. Microsoft is already talking X-Box 2. What is the difference? While Sony is making a game console MS is already trying to muscle in on TIVO's territory. You see MS failed miserably at marketing Ultimate TV so what do they do? Bundle a digital VCR into their gaming system. Yep that's right folks there are more then just rumors now that MS is going to add this "capability" to their next X-Box. Users are looking for video games not marketing ones. :evil: If MS decides to play these games Sony will eat them alive.


SAN FRANCISCO -- Sony Corp.'s sales of PlayStation 2 in North America more than doubled in May, outpacing sales of video-game machines made by rivals Microsoft Corp. and Nintendo Co., an industry report said.
Sony sold more than 520,000 of the machines in the U.S. and Canada, an increase of 315,200 from April, according to a report by NPD Group Inc. obtained by Bloomberg News. Sales of Microsoft's Xbox rose about 151,800 to 230,000. Nintendo sold 112,300 GameCube consoles, a gain of 30,300, according to the report, which is based on a survey of retailers.
All three video-game companies lowered the prices of their consoles in May, with Nintendo and Microsoft seeking to boost sales against PlayStation 2, the top-selling machine. Microsoft, whose sales of Xbox have fallen short of its forecasts, may lose more than $2 billion on the console by next June, said Brendan Barnicle, an analyst at Pacific Crest Securities.
"I don't think they are even going to break even on this one," said James Lin, an analyst who follows video-game software makers for Jefferies & Co. "It's boot camp for Microsoft. They are going to learn as much as they can because the real battle will take place in the next cycle with PlayStation 3 and Xbox 2."
Console makers aren't expected to begin releasing new machines before 2005.


http://detnews.com/2002/technology/0207/06/technology-530587.htm

Fortunately unlike the hapless corp users that are tied to MS's products game console users have a choice.

Hmmm wasn't this about mobile devices? ;)

At the end of the day MS will succeed in the mobile arena for several reasons.
1. They have their OS/Office monopolies they can tie things to if push comes to shove.
2. They are financially healthy compared to Palm.
3. They have a technically superior OS.
4. They are Microsoft and everything they do is GOOOOOOD.
5. They have a marketing machine that NO ONE can rival

[Jason Dunn]

I for one would LOVE a PVR integrated into the Xbox - so speak for yourself when dissing it, not all game players please. Sony had a big lead on MS in terms of software and mindshare, so I don't think the Xbox is doing all that bad considering. We'll see where things are by next Christmas.

[Jonathan1]

I for one would LOVE a PVR integrated into the Xbox - so speak for yourself when dissing it, not all game players please. Sony had a big lead on MS in terms of software and mindshare, so I don't think the Xbox is doing all that bad considering. We'll see where things are by next Christmas.

Try saying that when you are playing a game. Can't record a TV show and play a game at the same time since many of the X-Box games use the hard drive.

[Perry Reed]

Hey, I LOVE my TiVo and my PS2, and can't wait for the next version of XBox that will perform the functions of both. I think adding the PVR capability to the game machine is a natural extention of the platform. Plus, it'll play DVDs, so right there, I could remove three of the boxes under my TV with one new one.

[Jason Dunn]

Try saying that when you are playing a game. Can't record a TV show and play a game at the same time since many of the X-Box games use the hard drive.

Funny, I'm using multiple applications at the moment that are accessing the hard drive. It's still Windows on the box - why can't it multi-task? Don't say it's impossible until you see proof - you're just giving off wild speculation, which is fine, but don't pretend that you actually know it for a fact.

[Jonathan1]

Try saying that when you are playing a game. Can't record a TV show and play a game at the same time since many of the X-Box games use the hard drive.

Funny, I'm using multiple applications at the moment that are accessing the hard drive. It's still Windows on the box - why can't it multi-task? Don't say it's impossible until you see proof - you're just giving off wild speculation, which is fine, but don't pretend that you actually know it for a fact.

Because when it comes to video and streaming it from a source, it's using a HIGH amount of bandwidth. (Esp when you are talking about D-VCR's) If you have a TIVO try this. Turn off your TV and start recording a show. Listen closely to the system. The hard drive is going nuts because it continuously spinning writing that data to the drive. Do you have video capture on your computer? If you do try capturing video and running a video game at the same time. VERY process intensive in both cases. Yes they might be able to give the system a big enough cache to hold a minute before writing to the drive. Or they could go with one of the newer interfaces that are making their way into hard drives such as Serial ATA but I highly doubt it due to the nature of gaming consoles. (i.e. The keep it cheap mentality.)

[pt]

Because when it comes to video and streaming it from a source, it's using a HIGH amount of bandwidth. (Esp when you are talking about D-VCR's) If you have a TIVO try this. Turn off your TV and start recording a show. Listen closely to the system. The hard drive is going nuts because it continuously spinning writing that data to the drive. Do you have video capture on your computer? If you do try capturing video and running a video game at the same time. VERY process intensive in both cases. Yes they might be able to give the system a big enough cache to hold a minute before writing to the drive. Or they could go with one of the newer interfaces that are making their way into hard drives such as Serial ATA but I highly doubt it due to the nature of gaming consoles. (i.e. The keep it cheap mentality.)

gosh, i wonder if they would use 2 hard drives and 2 processors, wonder if they're working on something we don't know about, i wonder if technology will advance? i have a tivo, ultimate tv, and xbox. i'm pretty sure that at some point it will be possible to play games on a device that records tv.

cheers,
pt

[pt]

No MS just replaces MEN. The ownership just switches from hardware to software. Remember you NEVER own an OS when you purchase it from MS. That applies to both OEM's and end users.

that's an interesting statement.

you know that the carrier doesn't own the symbian os, or the palm os when they use a phone from handspring / nokia / ericsson / moto, etc..

but the carrier does own the customer relationship "more" when they eliminate MEN and have their own branded device.

cheers,
pt

[pt]

I love how people bring up X-Box. Truth be told even with the price drop the X-Box is getting the crap kicked out of them by Sony in Asia and even Europe. In the US it's doing better but still is lagging behind PS2.

this is year one and they're up to 5 million units.

it's a marathon not a sprint.

i love my xbox, can't wait to play with xbox live soon. no matter what, lower prices, better games, for the ps2 and xbox are great.

cheers,
pt

[PlayAgain?]

I would never buy a device made by any of the operators in the UK.

Orange do something to their phones (which goes beyond adding a badge and an 'e' to the model name) which has caused innumerable problems to almost everyone I know who has had them. I certainly wouldn't trust Orange, Vodafone or anybody to build a device. Maybe US operators are better?

As for devices, XDA aside (because that's a PDA with comms for geeks - as one non-techie person put it, who wants to hold a plate against their head). the MSWPS2K2 is yet to be released, and that with a vote of confidence from Microsoft.

In the meantime, the Nokia 7650, which has a woefully low RAM specification, is nevertheless being supported by application release after application release. With a software library so big, a price tag of only £150 on some networks and MMS capabilities being honestly advertised (as opposed to those terrible WAP lies of a few years ago), new users are lining up to get it. It has the support! That such a phone can work with such a small amount of RAM can be so well established is a tribute to Symbian's flexibility (not Nokia's), I doubt that any mobile version of Windows would even boot with that, let alone run!

This is beside the physical design which sets it well ahead of any rival in that field.

Hot on the heels of the 7650 is the P800! This phone is so specced up that it will be nigh on impossible to beat (see other posts or the SonyEricsson site for details of its awesome and outstanding capabilities). The P800 is pencilled for release in September (according to Carphone Warehouse in the UK). No phone will come near it.

This, along with the competition inside the Symbian camp between Motorola, Matsu****a, Siemens and the others (and more will join) will drive down cost and drive up innovation even higher. And this is a market where Microsoft has yet to release a device (as I said, the XDA and Nokia 9210 are a different market and therefore don't count).

I'm not saying Microsoft won't win - they will sell many units (indeed, if it wasn't for the Symbian offering, I would have probably gone with the Microsoft options), but they will have to work hard to catch up.

[pt]

I'm not saying Microsoft won't win - they will sell many units (indeed, if it wasn't for the Symbian offering, I would have probably gone with the Microsoft options), but they will have to work hard to catch up.

i don't think we'll ever see a clear winner in the mobile arena. i think that's what people have a hard time wrapping their brains around. there are so many great choices, it sounds like you're really into your nokia...i happen to be really into my small and sleek pocket pc phone edition. www.insomedia.com/tmobile

cheers,
pt