Philly Pocket PC Summit - The most memorable presentation

[Jason Dunn]

In what was easily the most controversial presentation given at the Summit, Todd Kort from Gartner Dataquest gave a presentation on the first day, and...let's just say it was the most memorable presentation for all the wrong reasons. The presentation was billed as "The Anatomy of the Pocket PC Industry", and the write up was as follows: "Find out what's really going on in the Pocket PC industry today by attending this industry analysis and roundtable discussion! We'll invite top leaders from the Pocket PC OEM manufacturers, including Microsoft, to talk about the state of the Pocket PC as a platform and as a community."<br /><br />So people were coming into the room with the expectation of a discussion on the Pocket PC industry specifically, and a round-table discussion at that. Instead they were given an overview of the PDA industry in general, and a monologue not a dialogue. That's not a bad thing, mind you, but expectations hold powerful sway over behaviour. If you don't get what you expect, you can be disappointed. Todd's first mistake was to not open with a statement about how his presentation was an overview of the entire PDA industry, not just Pocket PCs. If he would have altered the expectations of those in the room, things would have been different. Some quick facts from Todd's presentation:<br /><br /><i>Overall growth of the PDA industry</i><br />1999 - 5.17 million<br />2000 - 11.08 million<br />2001 - 13.11 million<br />2002 - 14.80 million<br /><br /><i>Growth now and in the future</i><br />18.4% compound annual growth 2001 to 2006<br />4.6 billion dollars worth of PDAs to be sold this year<br /><br /><i>PDA Shipments by operating system by 2006</i><br />Windows CE 48%, Palm 41%, 7% Others, 3% Linux, 1% Symbian<br /><br /><i>Who buys PDAs?</i><br />Current worldwide PDA market is about 73% consumer, 27% enterprise (based on the source of purchase funds)<br /><br />Then things got a little crazy. John Tidwell, one of the Pocket PC Summit organizers, came up to the front and asked Todd to step off the stage. They had a short discussion, then John went up to the microphone and apologized for the content of the presentation and mentioned the words "Microsoft bashing". It went downhill from there - people in the audience seemed to be split in opinion. Some wanted Kort to continue, others were upset about his perceived anti-Pocket PC stance at a Pocket PC conference. My take on it? Kort was a Gartner Analyst, not a Pocket PC enthusiast or OEM, and it's his job to look at the data and interpret it, not rally the troops.<br /><br />The whole room had a lynch mob feel, and quite honestly I wanted to crawl under the table. I was deeply embarrassed at what was going on - if I was a presenter, I would have walked out of the room and not looked back. I don't care how much the audience disagrees with the presenter - he should always be given the chance to finish, and if you feel the need, skewer him with questions after he's finished. There's a time and place for everything.<br /><br />After a minute or two (it seemed like hours), Todd continued. This is where he made his second error - he began talking about the forthcoming Pocket PC 2002 Phone Edition and how its battery life was said to be quite weak. He forgot that he was talking to a room full of the most hard core Pocket PC users around, and around half a dozen people in that room had already been using the HTC Wallaby/Spaceneedle device for several months. His statements seemed to trigger something in those device owners, and we had a minute or so of people shouting out their love for the HTC hardware and its great battery life.<br /><br />The latter part of his presentation was very interesting, however: July 28th is the two year date from the 3COM spin-off of Palm, and the tax penalties for another company buying Palm will be lifted on that date. Gartner is saying that possible buyers include Sony or Apple. The Palm market in general has seen a 10% decline in market share from Q1 2001 to Q1 2002.<br /><br />The question period at the end proved to be just as contentious as the rest of the presentation, with several people lining up to butt heads with Kort. A couple of people congratulated him. I just sat there with my head buried in my hands wondering what sort of twilight zone I had stepped in to.<br /><br />See why it was memorable? <img src="http://www.pocketpcthoughts.com/forums/images/smiles/icon_rolleyes.gif" />

[angelseye2000]

It must have been a weird situation Jason.

It's the "twilight zone" we see on many sites and boards where the discussion is palm vs ppc? Most of the time it's silly.

[JonnoB]

The question remains... was he asked to speak about the PDA industry? Was he given the description to which he was to speak? If so, he was out of line.... otherwise, I see it as his job as analyst to speak to what he analyzes.

Must have been fun Jason.

[farnold]

No, no, no. I am not surprised... and yes, I am still very angry.
If anybody in business goes to an event and is (not) prepared like this guy he would loose his job pretty fast. What do market analyst organization think? That they just need to state anything and the market will follow? Yeah right, eMarketplaces are the biggest software wonder of all times with two digit billion revenues in 2002. And so forth and so forth...
But still, I am not surprised. I worked in a big5 organisation for some years and sponsord analysts reports in different areas. Guess what: depending on the amount of sponsorship I could always see, how my company was in the top quadrant. Costs less than 30 grand, is a great marketing tool and cheaper than bying a project - especially when you see that compeditors are low or not even listet at all (OK, that makes you wonder, doesn't it).
If you want to learn about the future of the PocketPC market you could ask your granny as much as these analyst firms. Most of the time you'll have more fun and get better cake at your granny though :-)

[JonnoB]

Guess what: depending on the amount of sponsorship I could always see, how my company was in the top quadrant. Costs less than 30 grand, is a great marketing tool and cheaper than bying a project - especially when you see that compeditors are low or not even listet at all

I actually have had that experience... I used to buy and read the IDC reports about market share in a particular section of the software industry I work in. One year, I was called by the analyst to give me projections for sales over the next few years. Being optimistic, I offered 3x inflated numbers of the current run-rate. Guess what, my forecast was the analyst projections and thrusted my product to the top of the heap in the forecast! They reiterate heresay and have no proof or real data analysis. I laugh at these reports now.

I guess the audience at this event laughed/yelled at this joker too. I am still curious however if he was given a topic to discuss and deviated or was given free reign.

[angelseye2000]

"In the midst of his Anatomy of the Pocket PC Industry presentation, Mr. Kort, a principal analyst for Gartner Dataquest, was pulled from the stage by event co-founder John Tidwell. While the audience looked on, Mr. Tidwell (whom I sensed was inspired to act by Microsoft associates in attendance) proceeded to lecture Mr. Kort on the content of his presentation, namely that it included favorable information about Palm's position in the handheld industry. "This isn't PalmSource," Mr. Tidwell was heard to say. Indeed it wasn't. It's difficult to imagine a speaker (unpaid, by the way) being embarassed in this manner at any other event. Mr. Kort explained to Mr. Tidwell that to understand the Pocket PC industry you must look at the entire handheld market, of which Palm is the leader, and added that he'd submitted his presentation to the Summit organizers two months prior for review. Remarkably unshaken, Mr. Kort stood his ground and continued his talk, calmly fielding questions--which tended to be more insultory than inquisitive--at the end."

http://www.brighthand.com/newsite/features/uglyside.html

To name Palm and then say "this isn't palmsource" is far 2 easy for me.

Am using both my Palm and PPC with great pleasure. They are 2 different handhelds with both there pros and minors. Full stop.

[shilmover]

What I noticed most about this presentation (I was sitting besides Jason) was that much of what he was saying was based on opinions (his), not facts. He believed that RIM was dead. He believed that the Pocket PC market was not there yet. He believed that Palm would make a comeback. While I agree that the Pocket PC market was not there, and Microsoft needed to hear it, it needed to be facts no opinions.

One other point that was not mentioned in either Jason's comments or Brighthands is that he quoted a price for a Palm unit (can't remember right now the model). The price was at like $250. He called this "street price" based on c|net. There was one place that c|net quoted that was at this price, the rest were at like $400. He used the lowest price from an unknown vendor as the "street price".

Barry

[cnyprecast]

I was there, and I guess I have mixed feelings about this.

The presentation certainly was not what was listed and described in the agenda (as pointed out by Jason above). I am curious to know why that changed. No explanation was given that I am aware of. The session as described in the event literature sounded extremely interesting, so I am sorry that we never got to hear it. A lot of the attendees seemed very disappointed.

On the other hand, Todd Kort's talk was quite interesting. It was very uncomfortable when he was pulled from the podium and challenged publicly about his presentation content. I admire the way in which he returned and carried on. I think that what he was telling us about (general handheld industry information) is very germane to the Pocket PC segment of this industry. I am interested to know what changes and trends are occurring and how the PPC segment may address and respond to them. Having that kind of information on the first afternoon of the summit kind of helps to keep things in perspective throughout the remainder of the event.

I am a die-hard PPC enthusiast and business user. I have had several Palm devices in the past, but since the PPC launch two years ago, I have never looked back.

[Paragon]

No, no, no. I am not surprised... and yes, I am still very angry.


I take it you were one of the people in line to but heads with him. I guess if I had of left Sydney for Philly for that I would have a few wisps of smelly black smoke coming out my ears too. :D

Battery issues aside, quoting market analysis of the whole PDA industry I think would only be the prudent thing to do. You will never get anywhere if you don't pay attention to what your competition is doing... even if it is only Palm :) If there is one thing that bothers me about many of US in the PPC community is that WE tend to be a little closed minded to our surrondings at times. I know I do. I don't mean that as a putdown of those who showed their displeasure, I'm sure if I was there I would have too. I just think at times we tend to blow of anything that begins with the word Palm, sometimes we can learn from Palm...even if it is, what not to do. :D
Dave

[Jason Dunn]

One other point that was not mentioned in either Jason's comments or Brighthands is that he quoted a price for a Palm unit (can't remember right now the model). The price was at like $250. He called this "street price" based on c|net. There was one place that c|net quoted that was at this price, the rest were at like $400. He used the lowest price from an unknown vendor as the "street price".


Agreed - this was another odd part. He seemed to be ignorant of the Toshiba e310 and it's sub-$400 price point, and was touting prices for Palm devices that none of us could find online. It's almost like his information was 60 days out of date and he didn't update his research before the presentation...

Still, I think it would be fun to do that for a living. :-)

[farnold]

I take it you were one of the people in line to but heads with him. I guess if I had of left Sydney for Philly for that I would have a few wisps of smelly black smoke coming out my ears too. :D

Nope, mate. Not at all. Really annoying is just that these so called neutral analysts have no f***ing clue - at least most of them. And after even the most rediculous statement whole industries start to wonder and re-consider their strategies. Like every TV station they should make public, who actually paid for it: "This so called neutral market analysis is brought to you by PALM, SONY and ARTHUR ANDERSEN."

A nice and critical part in a conference like this is always helpful - to prevent the gurus from flying too high. But as I said - next year I bring my ol' granny and hereby I officially apply: she does the opening speech!

[possmann]

Unless the presentor is bing down-right beligerent or offensive - let him dig his hole and then lambast him afterwards - to his company, to the media and the like... Never pull the guy mid-steram - it can only create the exact thing that happened at the show.
I was not there, but have done many presentations and set up many presentations. Clearly there was a disconnect or in what the presentor was told to speak on OR a decision on the presentor to flat out disregard what he was suppose to speak on and speak his mind rather than something well prepared.
Both of these guys need a spanking - before any firing occurs.

My two cents - sorry that you had to go through that Jason - I don't know who you could ahve sat through it - I would have been out the door (or on the stage...)

[Jason Dunn]

My two cents - sorry that you had to go through that Jason - I don't know who you could ahve sat through it - I would have been out the door (or on the stage...)

I thought about "doing something" but ultimately realized it really wasn't my place - I didn't want to make it any worse by trying to quell a rioting crowd. ;-)

[PlayAgain?]

From what I read, it would have been better to let him have his say and trap him with questions afterwards.

The fuss has simply given his views more publicity. And from what Jason has said at the top, it isn't as if he was showing Palm as the best performing market anyway since WindowsCE is showing better forecast sales than Palm.

Two questions though:-

Does the 1% for Symbian include the smartphones or simply the handheld devices (such as the Psion 5)? If they do include the smartphone, 1% is well short of the mark, if they don't then I think that 1% is a bit high.

Should Microsoft take note of the 73% of the market who are consumers and not concentrate only on the 27% of enterprise customers?

[ChrisD]

I agree with PlayAgain. I was there and I asked questions at the end. I asked specifically what could happen to Palmsource after the tax sitation expires.

If you want the details of what I think happened, read http://discussion.brighthand.com/showthread.php?s=2b02be73558f715791c084485040877b&threadid=52711

I see no reason to post it here as well.