The Future of the Pocket PC

[Jason Dunn]

One of my favourite moments at the last Pocket PC Summit was a panel I was on called "The Future of the Pocket PC". Pocket PC Magazine has published the complete text of that panel discussion (somewhere - I can't seem to find it), and below is my quote from the panel:<br /><br />"I foresee that the devices are going to get thinner and smaller, but you'll eventually reach a size threshold where you can't go any smaller. For example, a screen has to be large enough to be readable. I envision the day where our small devices may have a flexible polymer screen that you will scroll out to be as big as you need it to be. We'll also start seeing virtual displays; your PDA or Pocket PC will have your CPU and data, but you'll be able to walk up a wall with a big display and access your information that way. I think those are 10 - 15 years out. I think the form factor will be a non-issue. The important thing will be how you get all of your data through public ports."<br /><br />So what do you think about my futuristic Pocket PC concept? What do YOU think the PDA will evolve into by 2012?<br /><br />(Footnote: I'll be on the same panel again this year. <a href="http://www.pocketpcsummit.com/cgi-bin/mainpage.pl?ref=20021001">Hope to see you there!</a>)

[Foo Fighter]

At some point...far far down the road, I see a split taking place within the PocketPC platform where some devices will, one day, actually run Windows! The current embedded CE, which PocketPC is based on, will serve the low-end market, while a true "Windows-powered" PocketPC will take the high-end.

[eric linsley]

8) i have to agree that there will be a split or possibly and more likely the scraping of what we see today as PDAs. I have been working at compusa for over a year and i am porbaly one of the best peoiple in arkansas in the know "alot form this websight"

The emidate futre will include as you said thinnner and smaller while still keeping the screen size viewable as well as improved battery life.
The most popular features for the devices at my work has also been having jog dails as well as replaceable batteries. and the ability to add a hard/leather case cover fgor added pocket protection.

As for the emmidate futre. You already see latops getting samller and smaler. Sony has come out with several laptops that are laready the size of the Clam shell devices. And they are running Windows. AS fgor the actual handheld devices i thnk within 2 relases of windows for the dewsktop they will have an os that ais cross compatible.
The main reason for htis is the increase in Processor speed and the increase in hraaddrive space in upcomming devices.

An once agian going back to screen size. it is obvious you watch earth final conflict or you have seen the actual beendable screens out in developmetn right now. as a matter of fact the Handhelds used Earth Final conflict are much like the communicaters in startreck as well there data pads. Those are all reflections of upcoming technologies of today and trully expect to see and pbendable screen within the next 7 years


sum:
better battery, lthiner ,smaller, larger screen, more memory and nfutre os compatibility, and of course media capability

see ya later

Comp Guru
Eric Linsley

[adamz]

I assume you meant "walk up TO a wall"... meaning there would be public, perhaps bluetooth enabled access point displays for users to interact with their wearable computers. I find that unlikely in the 10-15yr timeframe. Sounds quite expensive and would impair user mobility.. requiring kiosk access for data access/manipulation… not to mention, walls. Cool as it may be, I find it impractical. It's bad enough that people are still using ATM machines to access and exchange finances.

Weren't we supposed to have flying cars and public space-travel by now anyway? ;)

I think PDAs will continue to evolve as both an extension of and a mobile replacement for certain desktop computer tasks. But they will take on more tasks including inhabitance-related functions such as entertainment system monitoring (set your server to record a TV show, program audio playlists remotely, etc.), security system controls (access to security cameras), automotive-related functions (monitor maintenance requirements, navigation programing, playlist programming)… that way even when you're away from your home or even away from your car you will have access to management features in their computer systems just as we are beginning to have access to our work-related systems. And, of course, there's mobile communications… integrated voice/text/video comm software which can function cross-medium. In other words, text could be converted to audio communications or vice-versa depending on the users' preference and present situation.

[Jason Dunn]

I assume you meant "walk up TO a wall"...


:oops: Yeah, that's what I meant. :-)

[jeff]

I've always thought in the near term high end PDAs would disappear and we'd all be carrying around something similar to that IBM black box. It would be a fully functioning computer with a small touch screen for PDA use and a dockable connector to turn it into your desktop machine. That way you'd have all your data with you at all times without the need for wireless connections. The hurdles are obvious: cost, speed, size, changes in user interface depending on the mode, durability, and power. But the technology should come around eventually.

In the farther future I'd image there would be ubiquitous high-speed wireless connections which would eliminate the need for large amounts of local storage. Hopefully data could be shared from your home machine so you wouldn't have to put everything in the hands of Microsoft or some other party and get charged for the data hosting service. Maybe there's a legal use for all those peer to peer file sharing programs after all.

The best solution would be to carry around cheap-ish dumb terminals. You could access everything you needed through a server (again, hopefully your home computer) and not worry about breaking the little thing you carry around with you everywhere.

Jeff

[LarDude]

At some point...far far down the road, I see a split taking place within the PocketPC platform where some devices will, one day, actually run Windows! The current embedded CE, which PocketPC is based on, will serve the low-end market, while a true "Windows-powered" PocketPC will take the high-end.


My comments are slightly off-topic, but wouldn't it be great if things (at
least some things) went the other way around. That is, "full-blown"
Windows adopt some of the niceties of embedded CE (e.g. instant-on,
smaller memory footprint, replace the hard-drive on laptops with
compact-flash, etc...).

[Jason Dunn]

My comments are slightly off-topic, but wouldn't it be great if things (at
least some things) went the other way around. That is, "full-blown"
Windows adopt some of the niceties of embedded CE (e.g. instant-on,
smaller memory footprint, replace the hard-drive on laptops with
compact-flash, etc...).


I was thinking the same thing. 8) There's a LOT that Microsoft did right with CE. They had a chance to start fresh and not drag the ball and chain of legacy code behind them...

[Will T Smith]

1) Of course everything gets smaller. However we must consider the things thing that surround the handheld as well.

2) The desktop "Personal Computer" fades from existence. The traditional distinction between capabilities of desktop and laptop are already dissapearing. This week intel released a 1.7 Ghz P4-M with DDR support. You'd be hard pressed to find ANY casual user who will utilize this CPU to it's full capabilities.

3) The pocket computer is primarily a wireless platform. Bluetooth and some 802.xx (one that is secure) permeates. Software will simultaneously operate on the handheld AND on the "grid" depending on effeciency*.
* Microsoft is approaching this with .NET. However, they have a few haven't hit on the methodologies/idiom that will enable transparent, seamless, asynchronous utilization of network resources**. Java and C# begin to address these issues but they still fall short.

4) Being wireless, the computer will be worn. I/O devices will be wireless. Such I/O could consist of eyepieces, roll-up displays/text input, ear/headpieces (earpieces of the not so distant future will be embedded WITHIN ear wirelessly (they get their power from body heat & kinetic motion)). Likewise a microphone could just as easily be attached to a tooth.
Other devices may/be placed on or around the body depending on need and convenience. ALL of the devices are autonomous. ALL of the devices are interoperable with foreign systems. ALL of the devices behave as if they were ONE.

5) Primary power for most mobile devices will be solar.

6) Secondary power for high-energy devices will be based on fuel-cells powered by hydrogen rich liqud fuel.

7) Cooling devices will be unnecessary. They "sweat" water vapor just like people as they consume power. Really high power devices contain "by-product" handling systems which fill your water supply.

8) DC power supplies are inductive and do not require wires.

9) Fast involatile RAM makes secondary storage (Flash, Disk, Optical) unnecessary in most devices. As most devices are "grid" aware, data is always available externally.

10) The "grid" is distributed and autonomous. There is often little distinction between client and server. Clients often behave like "ants" serving one another with idle resources.

11) The primary input method is voice command. The devices themselves are semi-intelligent. They not only answer questions but make suggestions based upon your patterns of usage and pre-installed modalities provided for various tasks and lifestyles.

12) Your agents can migrate across the grid and perform actions for you close to data sources. They can make inquiries on your behalf with other agents and people.

13) The distinction of OS will be meaningless. The "grid" will be defined through standards of transactions and services similar to Bluetooth. Profiles. Agents operate in "run-times" which are completely platform independent. They can exist wholly are partially in n different locations simultaneously WITHOUT a coherent state.

14) Such agents will be based on organic/genetic algorithm and similar development practices. Only an ADAPTABLE system can be intelligent. The agents will return wiser than when they began their tasks.

15) Secondary storage will be based on fixed medium (it won't spin) with minimally mobile selectors.

16) Applications will self-assemble from individual task fragments gathered by agents. Minimal intervention will be required from the user.

17) All software will be free (having long since been commoditized). Only services and hardware will cost $$$. Most hardware will be bundled with services.

18) AOL will long since have died leaving a wake of environmental destruction from countless AOL disks occupying 15% of all landfill space ;-)

19) Voting will be electronic and done on handheld. Political apathy will STILL prevail.

20) Spammers and virus producers will no longer be filtered out. They will be counter-attacked by the collective grid.

21) Video on demand anywhere is possible. The advertising industry falters as they are no longer needed. Consumers no have DIRECT access to producers.

Of course a lot of this is a bit out. :-)