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View Full Version : HD-DVD Has a Few Things to Say About Blu-Ray


Jason Dunn
01-12-2006, 08:00 PM
<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://www.betanews.com/article/HD_DVD_Bluray_Has_Problems/1136673259' target='_blank'>http://www.betanews.com/article/HD_DVD_Bluray_Has_Problems/1136673259</a><br /><br /></div><i>"Having finished speaking to Blu-ray, BetaNews sat down with a representative from HD DVD to discuss how the Microsoft-backed format will compete with Blu-ray. Toshiba HD DVD expert Mark Knox gave a thorough explanation of the optical disc drive technology, and said that because of Blu-ray's complicated design, HD DVD will triumph in the format war. Blu-ray's difficulties, Knox explained, begin with the technology itself, and the idea that its 50GB dual-layer capacity is superior to HD DVD's 30GB. Through the use of better codec technology, such space is not actually needed for high-definition movies. In fact, Blu-ray admitted to BetaNews that most discs won't go beyond the 25GB mark."</i><br /><br />A very interesting, and technical, breakdown of the problems that Blu-Ray is facing - mind you, this is coming from the mouth of an HD-DVD representative, but the comments seem to be quite factual. I wonder what Blu-Ray would have to say about HD-DVD?

cmorris
01-12-2006, 08:05 PM
They did talk to the Blu-Ray camp too:
http://ces.betanews.com/entry/Bluray_What_Format_War/1136581584

It seems like their strategy is to mostly deny that there is even a war happening.

Personally, the more I hear, the more I hope HD-DVD will catch on (particularly with Managed Copy). I still wonder whether either format will provide enough for consumers to really latch on...

Felix Torres
01-12-2006, 08:26 PM
What I found interesting was that it points out the technical reason why H-DVD chose to only go to 15GB per layer and, even better, who is behind the misbegotten BD-ROM copy protection: FOX.
Not that (the rootkit boys at) Sony needed much prodding, of course... :twisted:

Felix Torres
01-12-2006, 08:32 PM
They did talk to the Blu-Ray camp too:
http://ces.betanews.com/entry/Bluray_What_Format_War/1136581584

It seems like their strategy is to mostly deny that there is even a war happening.


Well, its not like they have a choice: their first BD-ROM product came in three-four times higher than the first HD-DVD drives. If the HD-DVD products get any kind of retail discount, the differential could easily go as high as 5x...

So they *have* to pretend the products are aimed at different buyers because at those prices they *will* sell to different buyers.
The war is not looking so much as Beta vs VHS but rather tape vs Laserdisc...

...and we all saw how well Pioneer handled that lil fracas, right?
(And that was with a video quality edge they likely won't have this time.)

James Fee
01-13-2006, 12:08 AM
Of course in reality most consumers will just not even bother with either format.

Jason Dunn
01-13-2006, 12:18 AM
Of course in reality most consumers will just not even bother with either format.

Indeed. With only 10% of US households having HDTV, the truth is it will take a much higher penetration of HDTVs before consumers feel the need for high-def DVDs. I'm predicting it will take until 2010 for high-def DVD to really hit mainstream. For now it will be obscure format like DVD Audio or SACD.

There's a rule of thumb that in order for something to really catch on with consumers, there has to be a 10x value proposition. DVDs were 10x better than VHS. High-def DVD content and players are current prices and selection? Maybe 1-2x more in value. Not enough.

Felix Torres
01-13-2006, 02:52 AM
[There's a rule of thumb that in order for something to really catch on with consumers, there has to be a 10x value proposition. DVDs were 10x better than VHS. High-def DVD content and players are current prices and selection? Maybe 1-2x more in value. Not enough.

HD-DVD would have a shot, then: upscaling DVD players run $150-200, so at $300 an HD player would offer fair value to HD TV owners.
Still a relatively low-volume deal but current HD TV owners are big about future-proofing.

However...

The biggest obstacle is the format war itself, cause the very people most inclined to buy early are the most likely to be scared off by the war.

Bottom line is the conventional wisdom is right on this one:
1- the format war is bad news
2- the first to $299 will likely win
And I'll add:
3- the faster 1080p HD TV's proliferate, the faster HD players will catch on. The former is on track for 09; so 2010 is possible...

jizmo
01-13-2006, 09:57 AM
I must've missed this info somewhere, but has it been confirmed that both formats are stored to disk as 1080p and then downscaled to lower resolutions from there?

1080p isn't happening anytime soon on a large scale, but futureproofing never hurt anyone - I'd really be much more confided to get a the player that has the quality that'll last for the whole next generation of 1080p TVs.

Felix Torres
01-13-2006, 01:24 PM
I must've missed this info somewhere, but has it been confirmed that both formats are stored to disk as 1080p and then downscaled to lower resolutions from there?

1080p isn't happening anytime soon on a large scale, but futureproofing never hurt anyone - I'd really be much more confided to get a the player that has the quality that'll last for the whole next generation of 1080p TVs.

Both formats indeed store video at 1080 res.
Any downscaling (at the player or the display) is strictly optional.

You do need to clarify the "1080p isn't happening anytime soon on a large scale" statement, though.
Cause at last week's CES there were literally dozens of 1080 displays from pretty much every first and second tier vendor, in multiple sizes and every available tech.

So FullHD displays are a reality.
They aren't "going to happen"; they are happening *now*.
And the price premium is minimal (and dropping) over the equivalent 720/WXGA displays.

So, while it will be a while before the installed base of FullHD starts to *dominate* the market, the aggregate market share of the various 1080/FullHD products out there is *already* driving the market as a whole; they are exerting downwards price pressure on lower-res displays and serving as a ramp-up for second tier vendors with aspirations, and they are putting *major* pressure on the development of new plasma displays. Look at the recent actions of the first tier vendors over the last six months and you'll see most of them are clear responses to the challenge of FullHD. Indeed, the buzzword FullHD (which I prefer over the emotionally charged TrueHD used by a lot of LCD vendors) was all over CES'06 and you will be seeing it all over this year.

And that is going to be the main driver for whatever player sales the HD-DVD/BD-ROM guys manage to score in 06: the two techs line up and FullHD buyers will be wanting upscaling DVD players anyway so getting an upscalling DVD player that also plays HD-DVD or BD-ROM will be a strong temptation, even in the face of the format war.

07 will be a different story *if* PS3 really comes with a BD-ROM drive as standard and *if* China, Inc HD-DVD output drives those players under $300.

All in all, I'm starting to think that format war not withstanding, HD-DVD has cards to play (player pricing, PC compatibility, less-restrictive DRM, hybrid disks, and likely lower movie pricing) that might make sense to some at $500 and many at $300. If HD-DVD manages to get signjficantly *under* $300 in 06, they might even prove the BD-ROM guys right, in a most unfriendly way, by running away with the market before they can respond.

Anyway, on 1080 displays, here's a Cheap prediction:
by the end of 06 virtually all microdisplay sets still on sale will be 1080. ;-)

jizmo
01-13-2006, 02:26 PM
You do need to clarify the "1080p isn't happening anytime soon on a large scale" statement, though.
Cause at last week's CES there were literally dozens of 1080 displays from pretty much every first and second tier vendor, in multiple sizes and every available tech.

So FullHD displays are a reality.
They aren't "going to happen"; they are happening *now*.
And the price premium is minimal (and dropping) over the equivalent 720/WXGA displays.

It's clear that FullHD and 1080p aren't buzz words anymore - and it's a good thing 'cause 1080p makes so much more sense future-wise. Settling for 720p would've left too much room for improvement, especially on a larger displays and we'd face another format in few years time.

The "not happening anytime soon", meant not happening anytime soon on a consumer level. 1080p will force 720p sets down for a very affordable level first and Joe Averages will carry those cheaper sets home first. 720p panels will remain as a cheap low-end alternative for some time and 1080P will have hard time displacing it.

Fortunately it'll all change at its own pace over time and the two formats are of the same standard so they won't have to try and compete with each other. Unlike HD-DVD and Blu-Ray. :roll: