Blu-Ray/HD-DVD Talks Over and Done for - Really, This Time We Mean It

[Jason Dunn]

<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://news.designtechnica.com/article7683.html' target='_blank'>http://news.designtechnica.com/article7683.html</a><br /><br /></div><i>"Sony Computer Entertainment President told Nikkei Electronics that talks were over between Sony and Toshiba regarding a unified DVD format. The scenario is not new to consumers, and in the end we lose out. Let’s remember the glory days of BetaMax vs. VHS, Minidisc vs. CD's etc. The talks between Sony and Toshiba almost seemed one-sided with Sony pushing for Toshiba to switch to Blu-Ray."</i><br /><br />Ok, enough already! It's dead, it's over, and the two warring DVD camps are going to plunge the high-definition DVD world into war for at least three to five years. Why is each side being so stubborn? Because so much is at stake - when you consider that in 2004 the <a href="http://www.dvdexclusive.com/charts_marketShare_YTD_tot_dvd_sales.asp?chart_date=12%2F26%2F2004">total DVD sales</a> of the major movie studios was 15.4 billion dollars, imagine Sony getting a Blu-Ray royalty on every one of those DVDs sold. It's very likely that whichever HD standard wins will be around for at least one or two decades, meaning the royalties at stake here are in the billions of dollars. So if each camp throws a few hundred million dollars trying to promote their own solution, it's a small price for the payoff at the end. Factor in that Sony has picked the losing storage format every single time (Beta, Minidisc, Memory Stick) you can see why they're so determined not to budge on this issue. <br /><br />Wouldn't it be great if the dark horse in this race, WMV compression on a normal red-laser DVD, beat them all? :twisted:

[Felix Torres]

The talks were never going to get anywhere because Sony never put anything meaningful on the table.
All they offered Toshiba was to adopt their disk structure (file system?) on what would remain a BluRay disk.
They did nothing to address the compatibility issues that favor HD DVD, namely the thickness of the disk.
In other words, the basically offered to throw Toshiba's camp a bone to go away so Sony could sell BluRay to their partners and gather all the royalties.

No duh that Toshiba said they'd rather see a war than take that offer.
Cause even in a war, they would still make more money than what Sony was offering.
Plus, in a war they still have a shot at coming out ahead.

So they go to the mattresses.
Which I think is a good thing.
Unless one party or the other can score a quick knockout in the next 18 months, the odds are *neither* camp will win.

If the market really *needs* a blue-laser HD storage solution, there will be a winner.
If it doesn't, there won't.
&lt;shrug>

Red laser will soldier on no matter what.
And holographic storage is still on track for 07-08.
With upscaling DVD players becoming more and more common, there may not be a need for blue laser devices at all...

The reality is that it may be best to just go ahead and have the war.
Lets see what consumers actually want and what hardware vendors can actually deliver instead of some committee in a smoke-filled room divving up the market and *our* money to their convenience.

Competition is always better than litigation and negotiation anyway.
It may take longer, but at least the solution will be market tested and validated.
So lets have at it.
Start digging the trenches! ;-)

[jizmo]

In fact, I would like to see that credit-card sized holographic memory to arrive and collect the pot. DVD form factor is so 90's.

/jizmo

[Felix Torres]

In fact, I would like to see that credit-card sized holographic memory to arrive and collect the pot. DVD form factor is so 90's.

/jizmo

That would work for me.
The caveat with holo-storage is that none of the established "big boys" have a hand in it.
Which means Sony, Phillips, et al, lose vast amounts of royalties if the industry were to adopt holographic storage. The disk mafia has done a "good" job of keeping themselves in power for two tech generations and are doing their damnedest to stay up there forever...

Which is why I think the *only* way holographic storage *can* get adopted in the near-term (5 years) is if there is a blue laser deadlock *and* customers really need more capacity than red-laser can offer.

Big *if* in the consumer arena.
On the data storage size, however, there is room for everybody as long as prices stay reasonable. And you don't need to lobby content creators, which small companies can't do...

To put it another way; barring a change in Sony's position (HD-DVD is now in production) things are about to get interesting and bloody...

[vission]

Don't forget that every single Sony Playstation 3 will have a Blu-Ray drive nestled inside. I've already seen reports that Microsoft XBOX 360 will not outsell PS3.

I don't even own a game system, and I can see that Sony is already ahead in this format war.

Oh and even Microsoft has hinted that Blu-Ray or I suppose HDDVD could be added to later version of XBOX 360. If Microsoft also goes with Blu-Ray I don't think HDVD has a chance.

Vission

[Jason Dunn]

Don't forget that every single Sony Playstation 3 will have a Blu-Ray drive nestled inside. I've already seen reports that Microsoft XBOX 360 will not outsell PS3.

Sony has proven with Minidisc though that even if they have devices to play the content, and release their own content, they're not big enough to control the market. The Xbox 360 will have an 8-12 month headstart on the PS3, and it works with technology that's out today: red-laser DVDs, 720p TVs. The PS3 is more future-oriented, but there's no Blu-Ray content, and 1080p TVs are just starting to emerge from vapour-land.

[Jason Eaton]

Sony reminds me alot of an old company that only remembers the good times in their past. Perhaps at one point Sony could use it technological lead and name brand to steer the course for consumer goods but not so much these days. The more they try the more they find themselves standing alone.

Their compitetion has caught up and stripped out any advantage Sony had in product tech. The devices they sell are no longer prized items but commodities matched by others and each of them are unwilling to share the pie.

Perhaps they were once the 'mafia' of electronics but they have been reduced to 'street thugs' fighting over sales on the corner.

There is no drive, no selling point to wrestle the power to their favor, so maybe there is a war going on, but is the general public even bothering to care or pay attention?

The winner of this war won't come from consumer demand, but from the first group of companies that unite and wedge their product into consumer homes more cheaply and unseen. I don't think the PS3 is an answer for Sony, but the winner will be the first one to sign the 'knock off' electronics makers on board and out produce the others tech.

Better to make quick nickles in droves, then slow dimes every now and then.

[Felix Torres]

Don't forget that every single Sony Playstation 3 will have a Blu-Ray drive nestled inside. I've already seen reports that Microsoft XBOX 360 will not outsell PS3.

I don't even own a game system, and I can see that Sony is already ahead in this format war.

Oh and even Microsoft has hinted that Blu-Ray or I suppose HDDVD could be added to later version of XBOX 360. If Microsoft also goes with Blu-Ray I don't think HDVD has a chance.

Vission

Don't hold your breath.
MS is sitting this fight out.
Just like they sat out the +/- fight.

No profit in it.
In fact, MS is the biggest potential winner of any protracted blue-laser war because they are the main enabler of HD-on-red-laser tech.
And the 360 will play HD WMV content straight out of the box.
So if the war goes on long enough, the 360 could end up as the single largest installed-base of HD video playback units.

Translation: it'll be a cold day in the amazon before MS does Sony any favors. :wink:

(Oh, and considering the cost differential between a red-laser DVD drive ($10?) and the still vaporous BD-ROM drives, MS *Hopes* Sony ships Blu-Ray on PS3...

[vission]

However, I still think Sony &amp; Blu-Ray will have an advantage.

PS3's will sell, and they just may sell millions of them around the world, that is millions of Blue-Ray drives in consumers hands.

Microsoft's time-table for releasing XBox 360 is such that they have to nail-down what hardware they will be finalizing very soon, since they are also planning for a simultaneous world-wide launch. I find it highly-unlikely that they will be able to deliver hardware with HDDVD drives in them.

Remember that XBOX360 &amp; PS3 are both being touted as more than just game-machines this time around.

All I'm saying is I think by pretty much guaranteeing that there will be Blu-Ray machines in millions of consumers hands that Blu-Ray already has an upper hand. Especially since most of those consumer will already be Tech-Savy (Games Players).

Otherwise consumers will have to shop for HDDVD players to replace their current DVD Players, which will take a loong time.

No I own no stock in Sony, nor do I have either game system, I'm actually very much interested in XBox360 over PS3. But Sony is being a lot smarter this time around than the BetaMax &amp; Minidisc days, they have quite a lot of heavy hitters in their corner.

But time will tell....

Vission

[Phoenix]

Well it's no suprise that greed is the active factor here once again in the format wars.

This will be absolutely great for the consumer. Currently, when you go out and buy a DVD, all you have to think about is what movie you want. With these format wars, consumers (who know much less than us geeks) will have the added confusion of which format they should invest in - in terms of a player, which format will offer the best content and whether certain movies they love will even be available in the format of their choice (as far as I understand, studios didn't sign on to produce movies for both formats, just one or the other), and whether their investment will be a smart one because hey, maybe the format won't be around after a year or two. Oh yeah, that'll make things MUCH easier on consumers. :roll:

The smart thing for most people will be to not purchase any movies in either format until it's clear which one prevails.