Unified Next-Gen DVD Format Unlikely

[James Fee]

<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://www.betanews.com/article/Unified_NextGen_DVD_Format_Unlikely/1117126539' target='_blank'>http://www.betanews.com/article/Unified_NextGen_DVD_Format_Unlikely/1117126539</a><br /><br /></div><i>"It seems as if the promise of a unified next-generation DVD format may be dead for the near future. This comes after comments from Toshiba president Tadashi Okamura to a group of Japanese business leaders that seemed to indicate that the two sides were far from any kind of agreement. Sony, however, seemed to hold out hope while at the same time stipulating that any agreement must be in its format's favor. The inability to compromise is the key reason why the two sides cannot seem to work out their differences."</i><br /><br /><img src="http://www.digitalmediathoughts.com/images/brvhddvd.jpg" /> <br /><br />I'm not surprised. Consumer again must force the issue and one of these two companies will be left out in the cold. I still think personally Blu-ray is the better format for the long term, but I would have also picked Betamax. :oops:

[Felix Torres]

Actually, with red-laser HD formats out today, and holographic media but by 07 if these folks engage in any kind of protracted shoot-out, the final answer just might be "neither".

One thing I like about holographic media is it doesn't have to be a disk and it doesn't have to spin; I want credit-card sized storage media!

[James Fee]

Actually, with red-laser HD formats out today, and holographic media but by 07 if these folks engage in any kind of protracted shoot-out, the final answer just might be "neither".

One thing I like about holographic media is it doesn't have to be a disk and it doesn't have to spin; I want credit-card sized storage media!You bring up a good point, we have no idea where consumers will go. It was a long time ago, but the three reasons I remember for why VHS won over Betamax was length of the tapes (early Betamax tapes could only record about half of what VHS could), simplicity of the equipment (almost anyone could make the things) and it didn't have that Sony licensing fee. I'm not sure that really matters too much these days as content will probably decide this next battle.

[Felix Torres]

...probably...
But maybe not...

Let's say holographic storage can get you 20Gb in a first-generation RW-card and 30gb in a ROM card, both the size of a credit card.
And lets say the first implementation is data only.
Data means word and excel docs, but it also means media files.
A cheap reader could mean light, solid-state jukeboxes capable of holding hundreds of cds worth of lossless content.
Or massive thumb drives.

With support in an MCE peripheral and/or game console (XBOX3/PSP2?) it might build up enough installed base to draw after-the-fact content support, much as VCD and Sony's new UMD.

Much of the posturing in the HD- vs BD- battle is just that, posturing and lining up supporters before the fight starts. Think of a schoolyard fight with the two combatants surround by dozens of "supporters" who have no intention of getting into a fight themselves.

Does anybody really think the likes of Disney or Time-Warner are going to ignore a million-customer platform out of religion?
(Even Square-Enix, partially owned by Sony, has signed up to do XBOX games...)

Ultimately, what will determine which camp wins is the market.
And in the market, sometimes the tech specs win, and sometimes the non-tech specs (time to market, pricing, number of vendors, must-have content, or some other previously ignored trait) comes to the fore.

On paper, BD-ROM seems to have an edge in higher-per-layer capacity, but in the real world, it might turn out that lower disc production costs trumps extra capacity, especially if the content doesn't need the extra space. It might be that the extra 5GB of space in each BD-ROM layer goes unused...

Similarly, one side or the other might build up massive libraries of old movies, only to discover it is one specific movie that customers want (remember THE MATRIX? It sold a lot of DVD players all on its own...)

Being contrarian by nature, whenever I hear conventional wisdom echoed (of course bigger is better, of course having big names in your camp helps) my first thought is to look for ways the conventional wisdom might be wrong and check and see if one or other contender is looking for that, too.

In this fight, if I had to bet, I'd be inclined to bet the field rather than either of the contestants...
Specifically, *left* field... ;-)