Gizmodo Declares Blu-Ray the Winner

[Jason Dunn]

<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://www.gizmodo.com/archives/bluray-has-already-won-023974.php' target='_blank'>http://www.gizmodo.com/archives/bluray-has-already-won-023974.php</a><br /><br /></div><i>"And so, we're declaring Blu-Ray the winner. Sure, the fact we want to call our optical media "Blurry Discs" for the next 10 years or so is a factor, but that's far from the prevailing one—Blu-Ray is not only technically superior to HD DVD, it has a far stronger corporate backing, and has demonstrated the ability to have more content available to push the format. After the jump, we break down the three areas—technical, financial, and commercial—where Blu-Ray has set itself apart from its only competition."</i><br /><br />This is a very detailed article that breaks down why they think Blu-Ray will be the next optical disc technology we all get hooked on. Cramming 25 GB onto a single disc sounds great to me, but I feel it's far too early to call Blu-Ray a winner. The Japanese markets might be buying up the technology, but on the world-wide scale, that means almost nothing - there are many technologies that never leave the shores of Japan. It's been said that a technology needs to be 10x better than a previous technology, and while 25GB is a 5x improvement over 5 GB, I don't think space alone will drive Blu-Ray forward. In terms of consumer adoption, the fact that Blu-Ray discs won't play on the huge installed base of red-laser DVD players is a huge problem - in fact, I think that singular issue will be the reason Blu-Ray is a failure in the market.

[Crocuta]

You can talk about technical superiority until you're blue in the face, but Gates taught us one very clear lesson in the Windows vs. OS/2 wars... it's all about backward compatibility. All you need to know is that HD-DVD is backward compatible and Blu-Ray is not. The rest is just noise in the system.

[James Fee]

Well DVDs didn't play in VCRs and people bought them. If the content is there and people feel there is a reason to upgrade they will. Since people have to buy new TV sets to watch HD, buying a new DVD isn't a big deal at all. In the end the question is what HD format DVD player they will buy and that might be decided before they even get to this market. The fact that I can play a DVD in an older play is irrelevant if the movies I want are not available on that system. And its not like you can't have both DVD players connected to your TV if its that big of a deal.

[Jason Dunn]

Well DVDs didn't play in VCRs and people bought them. If the content is there and people feel there is a reason to upgrade they will.

That same content was there on VHS as well - it wasn't the content that drove people to upgrade, it was the quality. The difference between VHS quality and DVD quality is huge, anyone could see it. It's that 10x factor I talked about. The difference in quality between Blu-Ray and regular DVD isn't as big, although I haven't really compared DVD quality to HD DVD quality. I wonder if that difference is big enough to drive the adoption of Blu-Ray?

[Philip Colmer]

I think we'll see the emergence of players that can support both disc types. Sony knows about the importance of backwards compatibility - look at the PS2 market success compared with the X-box. They'll sort it out eventually.

--Philip

[James Fee]

That same content was there on VHS as well - it wasn't the content that drove people to upgrade, it was the quality. Well right, but if there wasn't any DVDs worth watching, no one would buy them. The difference between VHS quality and DVD quality is huge, anyone could see it. It's that 10x factor I talked about. The difference in quality between Blu-Ray and regular DVD isn't as big, although I haven't really compared DVD quality to HD DVD quality. I wonder if that difference is big enough to drive the adoption of Blu-Ray?Well that is the question we all want to know, but if the movie studios want to only release on Blu-Ray, it doesn't matter what HD-DVD does. That is why I say if the content is there, people will buy it. Imagine if the Star Wars Trilogy was released only on Blu-Ray, think people would buy it?

[Jason Dunn]

Well right, but if there wasn't any DVDs worth watching, no one would buy them.

Sure, absolutely - the content is even more important than the format. But even today, every single major movie STILL comes out on VHS. In about five years I'd expect that to change, but that shows you how long a format can hang around if there's still content. So as long as DVD has the content, that will not be an issue.

What *MAY* happen to drive adoption is two fold:

1) High-Definition content coming out only on Blu-Ray that looks MUCH better than DVD content.

2) Non-HD content, but more of it, on Blu-Ray. Think of TV boxed sets that only take up 2-3 DVDs instead of 8-10 DVDs. Space saving.

3) Blu-Ray players hit the sub-$200 USD mark and can also play red laser discs.

Imagine if the Star Wars Trilogy was released only on Blu-Ray, think people would buy it?

If it was realeased ONLY on Blu-Ray, it would be financial suicide and the stupidest entertainment-related decision made in the past decade. The number of people who would import a Japanese Blu-Ray player and pay $2000 USD just in order to watch Star Wars would be incredibly tiny. It just won't happen until Blu-Ray penetration is WAY up, the prices are WAY down, and the advantages for people to switch are there.

[Crocuta]

In fairness, there may be some variables that we aren't aware of, so it's true that backward compatibility may not be the only issue. Naturally, if Sony locks up all the content and it's only available in Blu_Ray, then people will have to stick with DVDs or move to Blu-Ray. However, if the content is available on both formats, then I believe that people will choose the one with backward compatibility.

People did move from VHS to DVD, but as Jason said, there was a big difference in what you were getting for the change. I replaced some VHS tapes I already owned with DVDs; the increased resolution and wide-screen format made it worth it. But once someone is at DVD resolution and wide-screen format, I find it hard to believe that they would run out and buy all those movies again (except extreme enthusiasts) just to get that last little bit of resolution. People might buy new movies in the new format, but they would want to continue watching their existing DVDs.

My prediction is that one of two things will happen, either HD-DVD will win or (as Philip said) players will be designed to play both. I think this will only be wrong if Sony does manage to tie up all or most of the content in Blu-Ray only. If Sony ties up their own content in Blu-Ray and other content owners tie theirs exclusively to HD-DVD, then we'll have a real mess on our hands and it will slow the adoption of both, just as the +-R thing slowed the adoption of writable DVDs for non-enthusiasts.

[Philip Colmer]

Interestingly, this article (http://news.com.com/Standards+battle+could+shoot+both+sides+in+foot/2100-1041_3-5312313.html?tag=st.rn) states that the competing formats are designed to be compatible with current technology. It is just under the heading of Structural differences.

It is possible that they've made a mistake but maybe the Blu-ray spec has already been updated to solve the compatibility issue.

--Philip