Does the iPhone Mean the End of the Smartphone?

[Pete Paxton]

I once owned a Dell Axim Pocket PC. I loved that device. It was like having a mini laptop in my pocket. I knew what a smartphone was but didn't think I could survive using a device without a touch screen. Then the Tmobile SDA smartphone came out and I took the plunge. After a month of using the SDA I realized I was barely using my Dell because the SDA was doing 90% of what I was doing on the Axim. I later sold my Axim and my SDA and bought a Tmobile Dash. To this date, the Dash is the best electronic device I've ever used. I love it and though my Axim was a great device, I"ve never once missed it. With applications like Documents To Go, I can do virtually everything I did on my Dell. For a while we had a surge of smartphones with the Q, Blackjack, SDA, and the Dash, and like me I think many Pocket PC users realized they can accomplish just about as much using a smartphone. Enter in the iPhone. Even though it doesn't have many of the features of a Pocket PC or a smartphone, it does have a very slick interface and is a touch screen. It's selling like hotcakes. With it's success, manufacturers are scrambling to come up with a rival since that appears to be where the money is. So here's what I'd like to know: First of all, if you own a smartphone, why is it your device of choice? Did you switch from something else? Second, with the success of touch screen devices like the iPhone, what future do you see for smartphones with non touch screens? Are their days numbered?

[Mark Larson]

The fact that the iPhone has a touchscreen is tangential to its success. In fact, before the iPhone, any number of analysts and experts would have told you till they were blue in the face that users do not want touchscreens.

Its all in the implementation. To someone who is following HTC and MS's "efforts" it seems that they corner the market and then promptly get lazy and stop innovating. What were the benefits of upgrading from WM2003SE to WM5 and then to WM6? Hardly any. Without Firefox, would MS have developed IE? I doubt it.

Activesync keeps losing features with each new release, and its just a complete mess. And now you don't get Outlook and there is no other way to sync. MS is so contradictory - they made the effort to come out with Mail and Contacts programs in Vista, but then don't provide any way to sync that stuff.

Its all in the implementation. Apple could have taken a Sony Ericsson-like format and sold it to the world too. And I think they will, let's just wait for the $299 and $399 iPhones.

As the dumbphone makers march on (including Apple), MS will be further backed into a corner and will hopefully start innovating its way out.

[Rocco Augusto]

Personally, I need the keyboard. We have an office iPhone floating around from desk to desk here so we can test all the new websites we are building and the number one complaint from everyone that uses this iPhone is that it has the most horrible keyboard ever made.

This is the main reason why I use a Smartphone. I need the keyboard as well as the small form factor. I always wanted to use a Pocket PC, but for the most part they were either to large or to thick for my personal preference.

After playing with an iPhone for several weeks now, I can see the appeal. It is very refreshing to look at compared to the offerings we have at the moment from Windows Mobile, Palm and Symbian. I personally would never own one though and before I would even considered doing so Apple would have to include a real keyboard as well as some finger cover or stylist so that large beautiful screen wouldn't get all mucked up.

I'm surprised Apple didn't include some form of a cloth for wipping the screen down... even the RAZR had one of those :(

[rdecker]

I'm surprised Apple didn't include some form of a cloth for wipping the screen down... even the RAZR had one of those :(

Apple does include a cloth with the iPhone...

[Lurk]

If the lack of a touch screen interface was going to kill SmartPhones, PPCs would have done it by now.

If point and grunt was the best method to communicate with a computer, keyboards would have long ago disappeared.

No, the real thing about the iPhone is generally what it is. It's an Apple. It is thriving on Apple marketing.

Now, that's not to say that some cool things weren't done, but they aren't enough to kill the SmartPhone or the PPC any more than the Mac has been enough to kill Windows.

Like the rest of the personal computer history, change happens and change is good. New ways to look at things or do things or interact are just part of the process. Now automated motion sensing and adaptaion of the screen will become part of the arsenal, but ther will be even more things that will spring up. Some will be real dogs and they'll die like the other dogs before them, but some will make you stop and go "Wow".

Probably one of the first things that we'll begin to see is higher resolution, we've already seen on screen keyboards. Multi-touch doesn't do much for the keyboard if you don't have the space to touch type on a non-tactile feedback surface.

Enough memory for a fullblown OS is another possibility, too. Perhaps WM will finally start gaining real Windows features and capabilities. Perhaps, instant on will finally belend back over to the desktop, too... but I'm already turning blue waiting for that to happen. Breathing is probably going to have to start happening again soon.

Evolution is normal. Revolution is exciting. We've been stuck in the evolution cycle (small incremental changes) for some time. It's about time the world got turned on it's head again.

[Bohemian]

I started with HPC devices when they were still in beta, moved to the Axim x5, then onto the smt5600, realized I needed a pda over a phone so now I have a 8525, that is a touch screen device with a hard keyboard also. I am currently running WM6 with HTC Touch applications.

I see nothing the iPhone has that my WM6 phone can not do or with additional software will be able to do.

The iPhone has too many limitations to it and the WM devices will be able to match and exceed at what it can do.

[possmann]

One question:

Are MACs outselling PC's?

No, It won't be the death of the smartphone by any measure because it lacks so much business capabilty in collaboration and extended business reach that in order to accomplish it Jobs will have to do something he would hate doing - interface/talk with Microsoft.

[stevew]

Seems like the smartphone is going nowhere fast. Same old same old. Nothing to make you say WOW anymore. Still Activesync sucks, still no full function office apps. Software is stagnet. I think a lot of people are looking for that "WOW!" factor and the smartphone is what it is, getting very boring IMO.

[Stinger]

It seems that all of my American friends who owned Pocket PCs have now moved over to iPhones. Although they liked the push e-mail and other business capabilities of Pocket PC, they mainly used their smartphones for video/web browsing/games. However, the people I know with Smartphones are tending to stick with their Smartphone. I guess not everyone wants the size, price or touchscreen of the iPhone

Personally, I swap between two devices (sorry, neither is a Smartphone at the moment) but here's why I bought them:

HTC Hermes: I do a lot of surfing on the train and this phone combined with Opera is perfect for web browsing. It's got a decent sized screen and HSDPA. The keyboard is great for SMS and e-mail too.

Nokia N95: This is my weekend phone. The camera is excellent for a phone and video recording is very decent too. Again, it's got HSPDA for web-browsing and a capable web-browser. Bult-in GPS is handy for weekends and the 3.5mm headphone socket makes it a decent back-up for my iPod.

Would I buy an iPhone? Maybe to replace my HTC Hermes but it MUST be on a carrier that offers good flat rate data (T-Mobile or 3 in the UK) and it MUST have UMTS/HSDPA. If the rumours are correct and it's £300, that'll put me off too. I paid a total of £120 for my HTC Hermes and Nokia N95 combined!

[ajwalker]

Sorry, people, I can't agree with you. The iPhone by Steve Jobs own admission isn't made for the folks who came from the PocketPC world, he's after the people who looked at us like aliens whenever we used a PocketPC in the past.

Even with the rise of Smartphones, how many people do you see actually using anything beyond a basic phone? Not many I would bet. I've been at seminars with people who were given Treos as gifts and didn't know they could sync them with their computer.

Most people don't "get" the whole organization/productivity benefits of PDAs and now Smartphones which is why there are more Razrs and such devices sold than anything else. The iPhone is for that crowd. I can't even remember Apple referring to the iPhone as a smartphone.

The iPhone is a media player with phone functionality, that's was the mission. And that should be okay, all phones don't have to be productivity powerhouses.

Sure, there have been very public switching of high profile Smartphone users because they just "had" to have this device. But most serious folks who cut their corporate teeth with PDAs are still toting their Blackberry's, Palms and Windows Mobile devices. The iPhone for them is a cool looking indulgence at best.

I went from a Palm III, IIIc, T2 to a Dell Axim X30h and the world opened up. Windows 2003 SE may have had problems with losing information when the battery died but I loved that thing. It was tweaked and customized to the max.

I used it for two years.

Then I switched to a Symbian based Smartphone because it was the closest thing to a PDA my job was offering on their free cell phone to employees plan.

After almost a year, I had to go into my own pocket to get rid of that $#$@# thing.

I am now the VERY HAPPY owner of T-Mobile Dash with Windows Mobile 6 and cannot understand where all the Windows Mobile hate is coming from. Albeit I wasn't around for WM5 but 6 is light years ahead of 2003SE.

Now I feel I actually have a "smart" phone and Windows Mobile 6 has not given me one ounce of trouble. It does all the things that I need a PDA/Phone to do very well plus lets me take my media with me.

I did play with the iPhone and appreciated its aesthetics but knew when it was first announced way back when that the phone would never allow me to do all the things I wanted/needed/expected my next phone to do.

When it comes to the iPhone, Apple is not talking to me.

[Mike Temporale]

The future is not touch screen. Just look at what's happened in the last year, Moto released a Q and the smartphone market shot up like a rocket. All of a sudden people started to take notice of the Smartphone platform - it's thinner and more functionial than the BB. It's cheaper for companies to use over the BB. There's more style, IMHO. RIM is taking notice and working in hopes to change the tide.

I don't want a device with a touch screen device. I perfer the one-handed approach. :mrgreen:

[rbendell]

This is nothing other than forum banter. Nothing wrong with that... my feeling is that there's a place for both in this world and if there's not, we'll all adapt. The fact that we participate in forums such as these proves that we're willing to try new things when it comes to these devices. How many PPC's, Palm's, cellphones and computers have we bought because it's the latest and greatest. Just enjoy that units such as these are evolving. :)

[alex_kac]

Personally, I need the keyboard. We have an office iPhone floating around from desk to desk here so we can test all the new websites we are building and the number one complaint from everyone that uses this iPhone is that it has the most horrible keyboard ever made.


As my wife has an iPhone and I have a 8525 and a BlackJack, I have to disagree. At first it was very hard. But with a week's of sporadic use I can now type text/email at the same speed on my wife's iPhone as I can on my devices using both fingers. Websites is a different story since I can't use the iPhone's auto-correct.

[acharn]

It almost sounds like this group is worried that the iPhone will replace Smartphones or PPCs. I doubt it and here's why. Steve Jobs was looking to displace all Windows Mobile devices declaring them "old" and "obsolete". He even made jokes about the tactile keyboard and how much more advanced his system is. His device isn't appealing to the major business or productivity crowds, but to the mass-market iPod groupies. It is mainly a device to appeal to the masses just as the Razr was and did. For those who don't use their phone as a music player (like myself and the bazillion others who already own an iPod), this device will not replace their multimedia units. Case in point, it even has a proprietary plug that requires an adapter.
While the iPhone will appeal to those who want a cool phone, the latest and greatest, it will not, not ever, be a good replacement for a Windows-based device. I believe that people who buy WM Smartphones understand its potential. Those who choose the iPhone are just looking for bling. It will go down as one of the best marketing ploys of 2007 and probably the decade.

[Jerry Raia]

It is a fad device and I think it will fizzle in the end. The interface will get duplicated and lawsuits will follow. In the end Apple will have done what Zerox did for the windows interface. Zerox created the interface and look at what they have now. Nothing for it. This happens over and over in the tech world.

[Stinger]

It is a fad device and I think it will fizzle in the end. The interface will get duplicated and lawsuits will follow. In the end Apple will have done what Zerox did for the windows interface. Zerox created the interface and look at what they have now. Nothing for it. This happens over and over in the tech world.

The iPod is over 5 years old now and sales are still phenomenal. Whilst Motorola eventually floundered with their RAZR line, it looks like Apple's cool factor still has a lot of mileage.

Remember, it was also Apple who took Xerox's UI and took it to the mass market. :)

[SQLDba]

There is one other differentiator between Smartphones and Pocket PCs - and it's key to what's keeping me running a Smartphone...battery life.

I have a Treo 750 and a Blackjack. I have similar (if not the same) 3rd party programs running on each - they do basically the same things - but I keep swapping my SIM back to the Blackjack because, even with the standard battery, I can go almost 3 days on a charge while I can get just over a full day w/ the 750.

I've had other Pocket PC phones over the years, and never even considered buying one without immediately buying a car charger so I can keep the thing powered up.

Never had / needed a charger for the various Smartphones I've owned.

[Terry Pickett]

I think the IPhone will very popular with part of the public and the smartphone will continue to be popular with its fans.

I agree that smartphones are not for everyone. I really like my Cingular 2125 and using it with Voice Command has worked very well. I can't imagine he IPhone doing these things any time soon.

I think the smartphones will be around for quite some time.

[Jerry Raia]

The iPod is over 5 years old now and sales are still phenomenal. Whilst Motorola eventually floundered with their RAZR line, it looks like Apple's cool factor still has a lot of mileage.

Remember, it was also Apple who took Xerox's UI and took it to the mass market. :)

The iPhone is no iPod. Phones and communication tools are quite different. No business person wants a device he has to send back to the mother ship for a new battery.

Apple may have taken it from Xerox, but he-who-must-not-be-named got 90% of the computer market with it.

[ditch_azeroth]

i just upgraded my beloved sp5m to wm6 (actually, it's like a modded 2m5 of sorts) - almost a week in and loving it.

the tact-ability of the iphone is a nifty feature. it also has most of the features any hi-end smartphone or pocketpc has out there but to tell you the truth, i'd like to think that the iphone is not the 'competition' for people like us. if you were to say that the iphone is the nokia or sony ericsson bomb, then i'd say yes, that would be true. wm devices though are an entirely different thing. for geeks like us (...here's me sounding presumptuous...), a windows mobile device is not just a phone (at least for me). it has pretty much become part of my daily routine; my way of life. sure, no wm device out right now is 101% perfect out of the bat but that's the part of the challenge - fixing, mixing, modding and upgrading. along the way, you learn a lot of things. heck, i wouldn't know the difference between an avi and an mpg file before but through converting videos (via pocketdivx or something like that), i started to learn video editing... and there are so many similar experiences like that. furthermore, wmdevices are customizable... and i mean CUSTOMIZABLE. also, there are so many sites that help you out in doing just that (sites like this one ^_^). oh, i'm ranting. i guess i'll end it here. basically, no, iphones can never replace wm devices.

[Terry Pickett]

I just can't imagine leaving my windows mobile device, exxcept for windows mobile six.

I can't envision not having Voice Command to look up my contacts, schedules and dialing numbers. Will the IPhone have anything like that soon? Sort of doubt it!

The Iphone is cute and fun to use but I need a phone that will work for me in every day life.

My wife is always impressed with how much my phone can accomplish.

[Stinger]

The iPhone is no iPod. Phones and communication tools are quite different. No business person wants a device he has to send back to the mother ship for a new battery.

Are business people important to the success of the iPhone though? Maybe things are different in Europe, but here in the UK enterprise accounts for less than 10% of sales. Plenty of phones (even high end phones) are successful without ever appealing to big business.

[Jerry Raia]

here in the UK enterprise accounts for less than 10% of sales. Plenty of phones (even high end phones) are successful without ever appealing to big business.

I will be interesting to see how many iPhones sell there.

[Stinger]

Agreed, it should be interesting.

The iPod is very popular over here and I would guess that it has even higher market share in the UK than it does in the US (we don't have the Zune :().

I think the iPhone will definitely sell. There's enough of a fashion phone market in the UK to sustain it despite it's lack of features and high speed connectivity. It will appeal to the same crowd who buy the Nokia 8600/8800.

Also in the iPhone's favour in the UK is the ease and willingness of people to switch carriers. The majority of people in the UK choose their phone first and their carrier second. Coverage really isn't an issue for 95% of people and all of the networks offer competitive rates (although not so much with data).

However, the high price could put a lot of people off. Why spend £300 on the iPhone, when you can get the HTC Kaiser or Sony Ericsson 8GB W960i for under £100? Some people will be willing to pay the premium but not everyone. I also think geeks will be put off by the lack of high speed data.

Whatever happens, it should help raise everyone's game. And that can only be a good thing for the consumer.

[pgb55]

Not an end…a redirection.

All of the dialogue assumes a predictably linear product path like that of Microsoft’s revisions to its mobile operating system to date.

In fact, Apple’s iPhone takes the risky path of creating an alternative direction for a “smart” mobile, via both handset and UI with the presumed intent of redefining and winning market share. Consider Toyota’s Prius. Two years ago, Bob Lutz dismissed it as a media ploy. Today, the Prius owns market share in the hybrid-auto category and is the “rabbit on the dog track” that all other auto makers are chasing. By the way, Toyota overtook GM as the world’s largest auto seller this year. The concept has been titled “Blue Ocean Strategies,” here:
http://www.amazon.com/Blue-Ocean-Strategy-Uncontested-Competition/dp/1591396190/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1/103-6347360-7260663?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1185591943&sr=1-1)
Consider giving a read.

In an objective moment, MS apologist know that the iPhone succeeds on intent by delivering the web, music, UI, text, compelling form factor integrated device better (by leaps and yards) than ANY existing device.
And save the 3G/IM/locked system/price/corporate deployment arguments.
-My old Blackjack was out of power by 3PM. And the actual data rates in cities (less than 10% of Cingular’s total coverage) where 3G exists were incrementally paltry.
-IM: Immediately available after release (more on this later).
-Lock applications: Multiplying by the day. And if the argument defaults to “web based only” isn’t every commercial developer and service provider already following the same model, including Microsoft.
-Price: Follow the iPod/Mini/Nano product progression.
-RIM’s Blackberry still dominates, in spite of Microsoft’s efforts via the Q/Blackjack/others.

Finally.
Remember a few years ago when Microsoft and Compaq’s iPaq redefined the PocketPC market with a great new handset and software set that re-chartered the handheld computer market. It was awesome! Incrementally, how far along is it today?
Internet?
Pictures?
Messaging?
Music?
Be honest…very little.
We should all be grateful for Apple’s efforts. Because we trade in a free market, the iPhone will catalyze a significant redevelopment of Windows Mobile. Isn’t that our hope?
Cheers.

[pgb55]

Not an end…a redirection.

All of the dialogue assumes a predictably linear product path like that of Microsoft’s revisions to its mobile operating system to date.

In fact, Apple’s iPhone takes the risky path of creating an alternative direction for a “smart” mobile, via both handset and UI with the presumed intent of redefining and winning market share. Consider Toyota’s Prius. Two years ago, Bob Lutz dismissed it as a media ploy. Today, the Prius owns market share in the hybrid-auto category and is the “rabbit on the dog track” that all other auto makers are chasing. By the way, Toyota overtook GM as the world’s largest auto seller this year. The concept has been titled “Blue Ocean Strategies,” here:
http://www.amazon.com/Blue-Ocean-Strategy-Uncontested-Competition/dp/1591396190/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1/103-6347360-7260663?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1185591943&sr=1-1)
Consider giving a read.

In an objective moment, MS apologist know that the iPhone succeeds on intent by delivering the web, music, UI, text, compelling form factor integrated device better (by leaps and yards) than ANY existing device.
And save the 3G/IM/locked system/price/corporate deployment arguments.
-My old Blackjack was out of power by 3PM. And the actual data rates in cities (less than 10% of Cingular’s total coverage) where 3G exists were incrementally paltry.
-IM: Immediately available after release (more on this later).
-Lock applications: Multiplying by the day. And if the argument defaults to “web based only” isn’t every commercial developer and service provider already following the same model, including Microsoft.
-Price: Follow the iPod/Mini/Nano product progression.
-RIM’s Blackberry still dominates, in spite of Microsoft’s efforts via the Q/Blackjack/others.

Finally.
Remember a few years ago when Microsoft and Compaq’s iPaq redefined the PocketPC market with a great new handset and software set that re-chartered the handheld computer market. It was awesome! Incrementally, how far along is it today?
Internet?
Pictures?
Messaging?
Music?
Be honest…very little.
We should all be grateful for Apple’s efforts. Because we trade in a free market, the iPhone will catalyze a significant redevelopment of Windows Mobile. Isn’t that our hope?
Cheers.

[pgb55]

Not an end…a redirection.

All of the dialogue assumes a predictably linear product path like that of Microsoft’s revisions to its mobile operating system to date.

In fact, Apple’s iPhone takes the risky path of creating an alternative direction for a “smart” mobile, via both handset and UI with the presumed intent of redefining and winning market share. Consider Toyota’s Prius. Two years ago, Bob Lutz dismissed it as a media ploy. Today, the Prius owns market share in the hybrid-auto category and is the “rabbit on the dog track” that all other auto makers are chasing. By the way, Toyota overtook GM as the world’s largest auto seller this year. The concept has been titled “Blue Ocean Strategies,” here:
http://www.amazon.com/Blue-Ocean-Strategy-Uncontested-Competition/dp/1591396190/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1/103-6347360-7260663?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1185591943&sr=1-1)
Consider giving a read.

In an objective moment, MS apologist know that the iPhone succeeds on intent by delivering the web, music, UI, text, compelling form factor integrated device better (by leaps and yards) than ANY existing device.
And save the 3G/IM/locked system/price/corporate deployment arguments.
-My old Blackjack was out of power by 3PM. And the actual data rates in cities (less than 10% of Cingular’s total coverage) where 3G exists were incrementally paltry.
-IM: Immediately available after release (more on this later).
-Lock applications: Multiplying by the day. And if the argument defaults to “web based only” isn’t every commercial developer and service provider already following the same model, including Microsoft.
-Price: Follow the iPod/Mini/Nano product progression.
-RIM’s Blackberry still dominates, in spite of Microsoft’s efforts via the Q/Blackjack/others.

Finally.
Remember a few years ago when Microsoft and Compaq’s iPaq redefined the PocketPC market with a great new handset and software set that re-chartered the handheld computer market. It was awesome! Incrementally, how far along is it today?
Internet?
Pictures?
Messaging?
Music?
Be honest…very little.
We should all be grateful for Apple’s efforts. Because we trade in a free market, the iPhone will catalyze a significant redevelopment of Windows Mobile. Isn’t that our hope?
Cheers.