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View Full Version : How to Read Analysts' Shipment and Forecasts Reports

Mike Temporale
02-09-2006, 05:30 PM
<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://mobileopportunity.blogspot.com/2006/02/how-to-read-tech-analysts-shipment.html' target='_blank'>http://mobileopportunity.blogspot.com/2006/02/how-to-read-tech-analysts-shipment.html</a><br /><br /></div><i>"I think tech industry forecasts are worthless. Completely worthless. That may sound harsh, but think about it for a minute can you reliably predict the future? Can anyone you know do it? If anyone could predict the future, don't you think they'd get rich off the stock market rather than working at an analysis company? I once asked a very senior manager at one of the biggest tech analysis firms how they created their forecasts. He laughed. "The process involved pizza, beer, and a dart board." Here's an example of how bad tech forecasts can be: In the handheld market, the big analysis firms once predicted that handheld sales would be 60 million units a year by now. Instead they're 20 million. That's a margin of error of about 200%. If NASA forecasted that badly, Neil Armstrong would have landed in Arkansas."</i><br /><br />Bring on the <i>Silly Season</i>! :lol: I always like reading the spin that comes along with the numbers. It doesn't help that every analyst categorizes devices differently to help make their points. If you've got some free time, give Micheal Mace's article a read and you'll be ready to cut through those numbers when they hit the street. :D

02-09-2006, 07:37 PM
This interesting article highlights just one of many problems in business today. The focus on shortterm gain rather than long term profitability drives me crazy. And all of this "analyst forecast" information is bunk. I've been known to yell at my radio when I hear some business reporter say something like "Shares in XYZ fell sharply today after the company announced earnings grew at 4.5 percent in the last quarter, disappointing analysts who had expected growth of over 5 percent." I have concluded the easiest job in the world has to be a business analyst. All you have to do is make wild a** guesses and there is no penalty when you're wrong.

02-15-2006, 07:44 PM
I think you answered your own question. The accountability in forecasting comes when you don't hit the forecast you've given wall street, and you get to see your stock drop 15% by missing your forecast by .5%.