Robert Levy
01-27-2004, 07:00 AM
<div class='os_post_top_link'><a href='http://slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=04/01/26/2135201' target='_blank'>http://slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=04/01/26/2135201</a><br /><br /></div>A <a href="http://slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=04/01/26/2135201">story</a> over at Slashdot discusses a recent report which predicts that Linux will dominate the smartphone market in a few years. The report comes from a company called Zelos (you can <a href="http://www.zelosgroup.com/sr/RWA0004010601Y-1.asp">buy a copy</a> from them for $1,995) and makes drastic claims such as this:<br /><br /><i>"Microsoft will face a severe uphill battle to succeed in its stated goal of achieving global shipments of 100 million devices based on its platform in 2007. While Windows will provide advantages for OEMs in the productivity device segment Microsoft will have a tough time defining new hybrid device categories and matching the innovation of more open platform ecosystems."</i><br /><br />The primary reason they give for Linux eventually topping both Microsoft and Symbian is this: <i>"Linux scored highest on the two criteria that matter most to OEMs and carriers: openness and low cost."</i> This is, in my opinion, an inaccurate assumption. What matters most to OEMs and carriers is one thing: <b>profit</b>. And what differentiates Windows Mobile, Symbian, and Linux is how each platform proposes to enable OEMs and carriers to generate that profit.<br /><br />So perhaps Linux is proposing to do it through 'openness' and 'low cost'. And perhaps they can beat out the competition in terms of those two criteria. And perhaps we can ignore the point that those two criteria contradict each other since an open platform implies high development costs need to be spent on actually <i>doing</i> something with that openness. The question remains: is this approach going to pose a serious threat to Windows Mobile?<br /><br />Let's look at it this way... Linux is proclaiming "Pick me! I'll decrease your costs!" while Microsoft is getting right to the heart of the matter by boasting "Pick me! I'll increase your revenue." One offers to cut the cost of <i>each device</i> by a few dollars. The other offers to increase the amount of money customers pay to their carrier <i>each month</i> by a few dollars. This doesn't sound like a very difficult decision to me.